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  • #45,781
  • May 31, 2012 4:53am May 31, 2012 4:53am
Quoting forextraderx
I'm not sure who he is...but I tend to agree with him myself.

Obviously if losing money is destabilizing to your decision making process.... you are likely a very new trader, and one who needs to get over the loss of any amount of money being a hit to ones security...no doubt.

But, once someone has moved beyond the basics of "losing messes with my head"...there comes a more dangerous period, in which "losing doesn't mess with my head much... "

After that, I find a few folks reach the point where "losing does not mess with my head, but I...
basicly u just repeated what i suggested to that guy??

*having no emotions doesnt secure u a win*
  • #45,782
  • May 31, 2012 5:03am May 31, 2012 5:03am
Quoting Silencer
basicly u just repeated what i suggested to that guy??

*having no emotions doesnt secure u a win*
your emphasis was on not caring about a loss.

mine was more on the developing stages of how one looks at loss.

the guy i quoted was on the dangers of not caring about a loss.

between not caring about losing money, and caring a great deal about losing money.... i'd say caring a great deal about losing money is the more important way to look at things.

Everyone has their own personal pitfalls in the markets... i just tend to find the more common (and more dangerous) one is to not care about a loss.

X
  • #45,783
  • May 31, 2012 5:04am May 31, 2012 5:04am
Quoting Freshpips
I also have those numbers but had considered the possibility that this (at the moment, minor) retracement had its sights set on 9800. Obviously rookie mistake getting in too early before any concrete signals.
I appreciate the advise and it make perfect sense...
I have been reading your posts for a while now, you appear to have have trading down to a fine art and any nuggets of wisdom you choose to share are always greatly received.
Thank you
Don't mention it. just keep it simple and trade with the flow. Even if you get a crap entry the odds are still in your favor and you know that your stop needs to be above or below the last swing high/low.

Here is my chart with the marked on swing highs and lows over the last few weeks on H4. Very clear down trend with a series of lower highs and lower lows. It's easier to see like this that a start of an uptrend need to break the last swing high around 900. We are clearly bearish and all the bottom pickers over the last couple of weeks have been smashed. What's worse is the bottom picker will either keep adding to their positions (suicide) or get stopped out and do the same thing again. (Insanity: doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results. - Albert Einstein).

H4
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: au3.png Size: 90 KB


Here is FXCM's retail trading accounts for AUD/USD.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: SSI_2012-05-30_2_body_Picture_7.png Size: 26 KB


As you can see, as AU started dropping, retail traders decided they would like some smelly fingers and pick their bottoms. Currently, FXCM retail accounts are around 80% bullish on AU which means that AU is still expecting to go further down. Once retail traders get beat up in the market and finally give in to go short, the market should be ripe for a turn around. It's just the way it is.
  • #45,784
  • May 31, 2012 5:06am May 31, 2012 5:06am
Quoting Silencer
who r u?
I'm a consistently profitable trader who trades for a living. But thank you for asking and your concern.
  • #45,785
  • May 31, 2012 5:34am May 31, 2012 5:34am
Quoting fosking
I'm a consistently profitable trader who trades for a living. But thank you for asking and your concern.
Well done mate
  • #45,786
  • May 31, 2012 5:35am May 31, 2012 5:35am
well, looks like spanish bond yields have somewhat bottomed out for now around 6.5 bp... resulting in a top of risk markets also... including aud/usd.

furthermore, there are a large block of vanilla options around 9700 that are set to expire during the NY cutoff (which is 10 am new york time I believe)... those option, combined with the now rising bond yields, and the retracement of aud/usd to the weekly open, which happened to be the 38% fib retracement on the week, and now what looks to be a 1 hr bearish reversal candle setting up is gonna all come together to very likley put some real pressure downward on risk markets, including the AUD/USD.

personally, i'm short from around 9753... and looking for a move back down toward the 9700 level where those options strikes are.

X
  • #45,787
  • May 31, 2012 5:36am May 31, 2012 5:36am
Quoting forextraderx
I'm not sure who he is...but I tend to agree with him myself.

Obviously if losing money is destabilizing to your decision making process.... you are likely a very new trader, and one who needs to get over the loss of any amount of money being a hit to ones security...no doubt.

But, once someone has moved beyond the basics of "losing messes with my head"...there comes a more dangerous period, in which "losing doesn't mess with my head much... "

After that, I find a few folks reach the point where "losing does not mess with my head, but I...
I can clearly say with affirmation that I've been at this game since the last RBA meeting at that's it.

I still trying to absorb as much information about this as possible
  • #45,788
  • May 31, 2012 5:37am May 31, 2012 5:37am
I'm also paying attention to the ES futures... 1309.5 seems like it may be a pretty decent support level, and right now we sit at 1314....

will hold for a bi, at least until close to 1309.50
  • #45,789
  • May 31, 2012 5:39am May 31, 2012 5:39am
Quoting forextraderx
well, looks like spanish bond yields have somewhat bottomed out for now around 6.5 bp... resulting in a top of risk markets also... including aud/usd.

furthermore, there are a large block of vanilla options around 9700 that are set to expire during the NY cutoff (which is 10 am new york time I believe)... those option, combined with the now rising bond yields, and the retracement of aud/usd to the weekly open, which happened to be the 38% fib retracement on the week, and now what looks to be a 1 hr bearish reversal candle setting up is gonna all...
Vanilla options?

I can see the chart topping out on this minor Bull but staying within my earlier observation of a wider down trend channel. If anything, I would hazard a guess that the next peak/trough will show the trend channel has either branched, stayed the same (with a fake out) or has just been displaced.
  • #45,790
  • May 31, 2012 5:41am May 31, 2012 5:41am
I took about half profits at 10 pips, and moved stop to negative 4 pips... so now if i'm stopped out, the position on the whole will be net profitable about 3 pips on the original position.

stop around 9756.5...now it's really just a wait and see type game.

will take 1/4 original position off at 9720, and the last 1/4 off at 9705

X
  • #45,791
  • May 31, 2012 5:42am May 31, 2012 5:42am
Quoting RhemyD
Vanilla options?

I can see the chart topping out on this minor Bull but staying within my earlier observation of a wider down trend channel. If anything, I would hazard a guess that the next peak/trough will show the trend channel has either branched, stayed the same (with a fake out) or has just been displaced.
I thought he was talking about Vanilla ice cream for a minute there
  • #45,792
  • May 31, 2012 5:42am May 31, 2012 5:42am
Quoting fosking
Don't mention it. just keep it simple and trade with the flow. Even if you get a crap entry the odds are still in your favor and you know that your stop needs to be above or below the last swing high/low.

Here is my chart with the marked on swing highs and lows over the last few weeks on H4. Very clear down trend with a series of lower highs and lower lows. It's easier to see like this that a start of an uptrend need to break the last swing high around 900. We are clearly bearish and all the bottom pickers over the last couple of weeks have been...
Great post.
  • #45,793
  • May 31, 2012 5:42am May 31, 2012 5:42am
Quoting fosking
Don't mention it. just keep it simple and trade with the flow. Even if you get a crap entry the odds are still in your favor and you know that your stop needs to be above or below the last swing high/low.

Here is my chart with the marked on swing highs and lows over the last few weeks on H4. Very clear down trend with a series of lower highs and lower lows. It's easier to see like this that a start of an uptrend need to break the last swing high around 900. We are clearly bearish and all the bottom pickers over the last couple of weeks have been...
Brilliant. Thats great stuff.
Like you point out, the recent downtrend on au is what dreams are made of provided you went with the trend. However, due based on the fact price has been dropping from end of April and dropped around 800 pips, how much further do see this pair dropping before the bulls take over and we head back up to parity? or at least 9800-9850?
  • #45,794
  • May 31, 2012 5:43am May 31, 2012 5:43am
Quoting forextraderx
I took about half profits at 10 pips, and moved stop to negative 4 pips... so now if i'm stopped out, the position on the whole will be net profitable about 3 pips on the original position.

stop around 9756.5...now it's really just a wait and see type game.

will take 1/4 original position off at 9720, and the last 1/4 off at 9705

X
Ah, so your trading strategy is to strategically lock away profits on a downward trend at key indicators? That way your left with a position to continue in a bearish market but if it swings you've got majority of the position already locked out?
  • #45,795
  • May 31, 2012 5:49am May 31, 2012 5:49am
Quoting RhemyD
Vanilla options?
ya, you know...as opposed to chocolate, or triple mint deluxe.

but seriously... vanilla as in non-exotic... options that just have a strike price and a volatility/time decay component.... rather than a special addendum that makes touching them validate or invalidate the entire option (as some exotic positions do)

See, when there are 8-9 figures worth of outstanding options at a strike price of 9700, and every pip might be worth a few hundered thousand or even a few million to opposing parties (the option buyer, and the seller)...

they tend to battle it out by trying to push price above or below the 9700 mark.

This type of movement is most aggressive right around 9700

So... right now, it's highly likley that some large financial institution is picking it's spots to sell AUD/USD down... and will become more aggressive with their sellling as it gets closer to 9700.

because in 3 hrs and 15 minutes... they stand to make some good money for every pip they can get it under 9700. if it's above 9700 in 3 hrs, 15 min...they stand to lose a good sum of money.

The other party mind you, wants to see it above 9700...but they won't fight much at this poitn to keep it up...because it's 34 pips above...why waste ammo?

they will likley wait until we get within 0-10 pips of 9700 before they try hard to keep the value above that come 10 am new york time today.

this level will act somwhat like a magnet over the course of the day, particularly as NY opens, and/or if it's a lower than average liqudity day (because on those days it's less expensive for those players to move price as they want... so they do so)

Just something to be aware of...

X
  • #45,796
  • May 31, 2012 5:53am May 31, 2012 5:53am
Quoting RhemyD
Ah, so your trading strategy is to strategically lock away profits on a downward trend at key indicators? That way your left with a position to continue in a bearish market but if it swings you've got majority of the position already locked out?
not always a majority... but, ya... I normally wait for a 15-30 pip move before doing such...but, i just don't have very strong conviction to the degree that I would need to wait for a 15-30 pip move.

but, if one closes half a position at say...15 pips...and then moves a stop to -14 pips.... this would reduce total profits possible, but also allow for a move 14 pips past where the entry point was before stopping out... and if it stops, there is still a net half a pip of profit.

it's just a very conservative way of trading. As long as one can pick turning points that typically generate a 15 pip move in ones favor, before moving against the entry point by 15-25 pips... then one can effectively create nearly risk free situations in the vast majority of ones trades.

X
  • #45,797
  • May 31, 2012 5:58am May 31, 2012 5:58am
Quoting Freshpips
Brilliant. Thats great stuff.
Like you point out, the recent downtrend on au is what dreams are made of provided you went with the trend. However, due based on the fact price has been dropping from end of April and dropped around 800 pips, how much further do see this pair dropping before the bulls take over and we head back up to parity? or at least 9800-9850?
Haha I've just posted a couple of pages ago not to think like that
Who knows where price will go, does it even matter if it goes up or down as long as there is movement. Focus on what is happening today. You can't predict all the support and resistance levels. Some will break, some won't. We are currently bearish (as you can see on the charts) and as a result shorts are in play. How you decide to enter/exit and what risk levels you want is up to the trader.

Once you get into a good position, just manually trail it. If you are short, keep moving your stop down to the last swing high. If you had done that from the start of this H4 bear move. You would have got in around 1.0300 and would still be in the trade now. Play the charts and not what you think will happen. Even if you took of the numbers on the right hand side of your chart, it won't matter. This thing could continue to drop to 0.500 from here or it could bounce up to 1.5000. it doesn't matter. Just keep and eye on those S&R levels and you won't have any stress.
  • #45,798
  • May 31, 2012 6:00am May 31, 2012 6:00am
Despite the high number of retail longs of risk currencies, this pair continues to make lower low and getting capped at lower high.

I might just start to trade against these retail positions
  • #45,799
  • May 31, 2012 6:15am May 31, 2012 6:15am
S&P Futs starting to get some volume behind the small move up.... and spanish bond yields look to be falling again (though i get crappy delayed quotes... no idea what's up with span Y's right at this moment)... this could put some upward pressure on risk currencies.... but, since I'm in a no risk trade myself, really not much harm in sitting on my hands.

X
  • #45,800
  • May 31, 2012 6:20am May 31, 2012 6:20am
I'm still seeing hte S&P retest 1310...and if it does so.. the aud/usd shoud have no problem hitting 9720-15, and maybe even 9700-9795...

ideal entry long for me is around 9670, but I don't know if we'll make it there without some sort of catalyst to push it down into it....

although... with yesterday being such a selloff, and today most likley resulting in a bit of a range day.... it is entirely possible that NFP tomorrow could push down under the lows of today, since price may very well be around those lose come NFP time...

If so, I'm personally looking to get longbetween 9670-9630.

but, looks like that level will likley have to wait until tomorrow...at least at this rate.

X
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