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AUD/USD

  • #45,741
  • May 30, 2012 8:43pm May 30, 2012 8:43pm
I think overall the news is positive for AUD

Building approvals fell -8.7%, while this was greater than expected, the overall trend for 17 months has been a declining trend

Additionally, in the notes section they state: "The Building Act 2011 came into effect in Western Australia on the 2 April 2012, bringing in significant changes to the building approval process. This may impact on the building approval estimates in that state"


Private capital expenditure and sector credit increased indicating increased confidence
  • #45,742
  • May 30, 2012 8:54pm May 30, 2012 8:54pm
Double bottom since Nov 11, looks great to carry trade from here with low leverage.
  • #45,743
  • May 30, 2012 9:14pm May 30, 2012 9:14pm
my trends keep dissapearing...
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  • #45,744
  • May 30, 2012 9:37pm May 30, 2012 9:37pm
Australian stocks are down. Don't let the housing figures fool you. Aussie is will still loose ground before bouncing. Mining boom has not happened yet and has ineffect been put on hold by BHP. Wait for that project to get its funding back and then the Aussie will bounce.
  • #45,745
  • May 30, 2012 10:12pm May 30, 2012 10:12pm
pending order;short 0.9720 sl. 40 pips tp.0.9650
  • #45,746
  • May 30, 2012 10:14pm May 30, 2012 10:14pm
Quoting RhemyD
Australian stocks are down. Don't let the housing figures fool you. Aussie is will still loose ground before bouncing. Mining boom has not happened yet and has ineffect been put on hold by BHP. Wait for that project to get its funding back and then the Aussie will bounce.

And do you have any idea when that will be ???
“Don't cry because it's over, smile because it happened.â€Â
  • #45,747
  • May 30, 2012 10:21pm May 30, 2012 10:21pm
Quoting balanced2012
And do you have any idea when that will be ???
Not the foggiest.
  • #45,748
  • May 30, 2012 10:32pm May 30, 2012 10:32pm
Got long around 0.9700, but agree with most that down is more likely than up at the momenth, so took profits to reduce position, and moved my stop up to 9694... therefore a stop out will provide me with a net profit on the position over all.

Would love to get to 9740, but I am skeptical whether that will happen before we can retest lows in order for a stop run taht allows more traders to cover during london/U.S. between the 9673-9645ish price range.

Depending on what develops out the the EZ, and price action on the eur/usd as a whole will obviously influence the AUD here... but I'm thinking this move down will probably start to consolidate for at least a day or 2 before we see 9600.

If I do get long, it'll be somewhere between 9667 and 9645.

X

P.S. anything above 9740, if we can get there before a retest of todays low, is a solid value to start looking to short, IMO
  • #45,749
  • May 30, 2012 10:35pm May 30, 2012 10:35pm
deleted. see u in London
  • #45,750
  • May 30, 2012 10:43pm May 30, 2012 10:43pm
Here's plan for aussie, with the best one at 9800 with a clear former support that became resistance combined with a psych level.
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  • #45,751
  • May 30, 2012 11:11pm May 30, 2012 11:11pm
Quoting Cerber.bf2
Here's plan for aussie, with the best one at 9800 with a clear former support that became resistance combined with a psych level.
Agreed. 9800 would make for a sweet short.
  • #45,752
  • May 30, 2012 11:52pm May 30, 2012 11:52pm
after the news releases earlier, seems the aud bond markets moved up and yields fell on increased demand amid speculation that RBA may not be so quick to cut interest rates by as much (or at all) as previously expected in its upcoming meeting in a few days.

The divergence between the moves in the nations bond market and it's currency will put upward pressure on the AUD...and as I type, it's moving up a bit.

Due to the abundance of technical levels around the price as it is now as well as such developing news events, I'm thinking if we retest the lows of the asian session i'll be getting long, particularly if we can retest those lose before we hit 9740-50

Anyone else feel similar? what about those who are bearish... where are you thinking the lower end for the upcoming london/u.s. session will be? what is that contingent on?

X
  • #45,753
  • May 31, 2012 12:14am May 31, 2012 12:14am
Quoting forextraderx
Anyone else feel similar? what about those who are bearish... where are you thinking the lower end for the upcoming london/u.s. session will be? what is that contingent on?

X
I think the low end will be next major support level around .9660, to complete the downward channel.
  • #45,754
  • May 31, 2012 12:27am May 31, 2012 12:27am
Quoting RhemyD
Being dyslexic has its issues:

Reward to risk ratio:
3 (reward) : 1 (risk)?
900 (TP) : 300 (SL)?

Anyone able to confirm for me? Sorry for seemingly stupid questions to all you vets.
There are no stupid questions

yes a big swing or position trade based on monthly chart... over 900 pips target, with 300 pips risk (stop).
In the days of old when sailors were bold, and seldom if ever contented.
  • #45,755
  • May 31, 2012 12:28am May 31, 2012 12:28am
Quoting ibotman
I think the low end will be next major support level around .9660, to complete the downward channel.
Yea... ok, cool. didn't even consider the downward channel actually, but that is one more technical reason to think that 9630-9670 will very likely support price, at least unless price can move up a significant amount first before testing the asian session lows and below.

X
  • #45,756
  • May 31, 2012 12:31am May 31, 2012 12:31am
I'm long as of .9719 just for a scalp. Got in a bit early on my e/a short, but am waiting for the trendline break to add too. I'm targeting .9750 for my scalp, although I agree .98 is looking pretty sexy.
FF journal: Peaks and Troffs
  • #45,757
  • May 31, 2012 12:34am May 31, 2012 12:34am
Well, just moved stop to about BE on the AUD/USD long I took around 9700.

if it stops out, it'll make a profit of approx 0.15%, and if it moves up to target, it'll make about 0.60%.

Almost hoping it doesn't target, but first revisits asian session lows... i'd feel a bit more confident regarding a profitable long from the daily lows if we fail to retest 9740+

But hey, can't complain really either way... profit is profit.

X
  • #45,758
  • May 31, 2012 1:58am May 31, 2012 1:58am
Quoting bogus
I'm long as of .9719 just for a scalp. Got in a bit early on my e/a short, but am waiting for the trendline break to add too. I'm targeting .9750 for my scalp, although I agree .98 is looking pretty sexy.
Out at B.E, time of day. lets see what London brings.
FF journal: Peaks and Troffs
  • #45,759
  • May 31, 2012 2:18am May 31, 2012 2:18am
Changed my SL on my short at 0.9780 to BE.

Thoughts on this Bull in the London? Think it's going to drop? If we change the channel on the 1D to take in the recent brake it's still hovering around the midpoint on the trend line.

My thoughts are this pair is still going to drop. The housing stats aren't THAT good given risk sentiment off loading high risk into relatively safe USD dominate pairs.
  • #45,760
  • May 31, 2012 2:35am May 31, 2012 2:35am
Eh, I closed out a bit early because E/U looked to be hitting resistance... and i didn't want a pull downward on my profits...so closed with about 30 pips. had I held, it would have basically targeted. next time.... next time.


now I wait for a retest of the lows for the day....

X
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