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  • #3,601
  • May 29, 2012 8:40am May 29, 2012 8:40am
Quoting batata
1.0050
Would you guys consider this level again if/when it comes back?

I would trade it ......
It has been touched already I will not
Greetings, BeLikewater
  • #3,602
  • May 29, 2012 8:45am May 29, 2012 8:45am
Quoting BeLikeWater
It has been touched already I will not


Would this be playable as a sfp?
  • #3,603
  • Edited 9:50am May 29, 2012 9:37am | Edited 9:50am
Quoting 9047
I've still got gaps on the AUDUSD and NZDUSD.

Aussie attached...
Wondered why it bounced off the 9780 level and didn't got for the close.

I'm with AxiTrader. Does anyone else still have an open gap?
Yes, there are still gaps, and the fact that they are major pairs is something I consider encouraging. That being said, we've seen some retrace after moving away from the gaps. While this wasn't a complete close, if you didn't already take some meat off the moves, then I would be mindful of your position sizing and how much draw down you want to take on.

[quote=nymeria;5708483]Is anyone trading the .5R Gap method by Tom (where (SL is 2X size of gap)?

I'm don't. My stops are generally tucked well behind the nearest major SR. While I think Tom's gap method is a good place to start, I also think it's important to use some discretion when it comes to stop placement. Experience helps too.

Going back to the forextester/some other sort of testing software, these are great tools to build your confidence in the gaps, show what can happen (4r drawdowns), etc.
  • #3,604
  • May 29, 2012 10:51am May 29, 2012 10:51am
**There will be some money to be made off the recent support busts if we can get a solid 1hr close below (see eur/usd & eur/jpy) in the next few minutes. In addition, if aussie closes below the 1hr supt, I will be looking to see the remaining gap closed as per discussions above**

GL everyone, lets wrap up May with some good moves.
  • #3,605
  • May 29, 2012 11:22am May 29, 2012 11:22am
Quoting sam0182
**There will be some money to be made off the recent support busts if we can get a solid 1hr close below (see eur/usd & eur/jpy) in the next few minutes. In addition, if aussie closes below the 1hr supt, I will be looking to see the remaining gap closed as per discussions above**

GL everyone, lets wrap up May with some good moves.
Sam: Thanks for the reply regarding the gap data. Does Oanda put weekend bars on the chart?

Re: Gaps
I never caught TDs webinar on gap trading so I pretty much play them looking at SNR levels. I've also noted for the "big" gaps (discretion required as to what is big) to look for a cross-bar entry e.g. look for interaction with SNR or SFP etc. and not to enter straight away. I also (if possible) manage risk by ensuring my longs for gap match a short in another pair with a gap e.g. this week I traded USDCHF to match against AUDUSD. But USDCHF did close out quicker than AUDUSD.

I got stopped out on the Crude gap yesterday - because I didn't follow this rule of thumb -but re-entered with a stop above 92.15 worked a treat. Also placed a sell order there - executed with almost zero drawn down. (Levels are awesome)

The only thing that made me happier was the speed that bar smashed down on the gap!

It's taken me a while to get then hang of gaps and as always - I'm still learning! But the best thing to look (in my opinion) is a cross bar (a secondary setup) that reinforces the bias created by the gap.
  • #3,606
  • May 29, 2012 12:03pm May 29, 2012 12:03pm
Oanda weekend data typically goes blank (but will sometimes show spike movements if they occur) but you generally see some price action moving a couple hours prior to the other brokers showing.

Yeah, sounds like you're getting the hang of it from your post, many good points.

The big one I think you mentioned is that the UCHF gap had closed (along with most other major pairs) but Aussie still had not. This is a red flag to me...not saying that it won't close but that it probably won't close right away. One must think logically...if most other Xcountry/usd has closed their gaps but aus/usd & nzd/usd have not...it's probably going to be awhile.

This is where discretion comes to play and strict risk/reward rules take a back seat.

Now are you not following through with your trade plan when using discretion? Are you suffering from fear, greed or are you making the right direction based upon experience? Ha. Discretion is why trading is hard.

Quoting 9047
Sam: Thanks for the reply regarding the gap data. Does Oanda put weekend bars on the chart?

Re: Gaps
I never caught TDs webinar on gap trading so I pretty much play them looking at SNR levels. I've also noted for the "big" gaps (discretion required as to what is big) to look for a cross-bar entry e.g. look for interaction with SNR or SFP etc. and not to enter straight away. I also (if possible) manage risk by ensuring my longs for gap match a short in another pair with a gap e.g. this week I traded USDCHF to match against AUDUSD....
  • #3,607
  • May 29, 2012 12:07pm May 29, 2012 12:07pm
EJ
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #3,608
  • May 29, 2012 12:40pm May 29, 2012 12:40pm
Quoting sam0182
The big one I think you mentioned is that the UCHF gap had closed (along with most other major pairs) but Aussie still had not. This is a red flag to me...not saying that it won't close but that it probably won't close right away. One must think logically...if most other Xcountry/usd has closed their gaps but aus/usd & nzd/usd have not...it's probably going to be awhile.
Ironically we just closed out a gap in this area for the AUSUSD that occured quite some time ago (closed my spreadsheet so don't have the exact date at hand). A factor that has also has made me cautious around the AUSUSD gap (and its friends AUDJPY is still open).

Quoting sam0182
Discretion is why trading is hard.
100% agree (I think this will always be hard to control even when you've got lots of experience).
  • #3,609
  • May 29, 2012 2:50pm May 29, 2012 2:50pm
Quoting nymeria
Would this be playable as a sfp?
A level is a place where we are supposed to seen buyers in that case, now if price came back to the level it must indicates more weakness than strengh.

Just trade SFP from price swings.
Greetings, BeLikewater
  • #3,610
  • May 29, 2012 4:21pm May 29, 2012 4:21pm
Quoting nymeria
Would this be playable as a sfp?

Yes, I would go long USD/CAD in that area, but only if there is an SFP of the previous major swing low at 1.0054.
  • #3,611
  • May 29, 2012 6:01pm May 29, 2012 6:01pm
Quoting BadgerMatt
Yes, I would go long USD/CAD in that area, but only if there is an SFP of the previous major swing low at 1.0054.
Thanks BadgerMatt, wasn't sure if that swing was significant to play a SFP.

Did anyone get in on the EUR/JPY break and retest trade? My limit order missed it by 4 pips.
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  • #3,612
  • May 29, 2012 7:35pm May 29, 2012 7:35pm
Quoting nymeria
Thanks BadgerMatt, wasn't sure if that swing was significant to play a SFP.

Did anyone get in on the EUR/JPY break and retest trade? My limit order missed it by 4 pips.
Yes...Had a small entry at .35 and then loaded in big at .40
  • #3,613
  • Edited 9:09pm May 29, 2012 9:06pm | Edited 9:09pm
Quoting nymeria
Thanks BadgerMatt, wasn't sure if that swing was significant to play a SFP.

Did anyone get in on the EUR/JPY break and retest trade? My limit order missed it by 4 pips.
Yeah.. I got it.

Entered: 99.44
Set target: 98.48 (but may close at the high of 13/1/2012 - 98.79. first high in the FTA).

Anyone else in this trade care to share their TP?
  • #3,614
  • May 29, 2012 9:24pm May 29, 2012 9:24pm
Quoting 9047
Yeah.. I got it.

Entered: 99.44
Set target: 98.48 (but may close at the high of 13/1/2012 - 98.79. first high in the FTA).

Anyone else in this trade care to share their TP?
Great entry, nice work.

I am playing this by year..if we can bust the 1hr lows that the pair is flirting with now, I'll push for another 40-50pts past that. We have some room to fall though, I may shoot for more.

I really like trading EJ with these sort of setups w/the trend...it moves quickly
  • #3,615
  • May 29, 2012 11:01pm May 29, 2012 11:01pm
Next on deck...aud/nzd & nzd/usd. NU is the cleaner setup, especially with the gap still to close.
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  • #3,616
  • May 30, 2012 2:34am May 30, 2012 2:34am
Descending wedge/spider on NZDUSD .... sell on a break of 0.7586.
Possibly wait for re-test.
Target the gap.

I'm uncertain about it - so its very unlikely I will trade it.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #3,617
  • May 30, 2012 2:39am May 30, 2012 2:39am
EJ absolute peach, I reckon this is on it's way to 97. Great trade guys.

EU & UC reacting in the same way.

I would trade 1.005 on UC for what it's worth. The probability of a bounce is pretty high imho.
  • #3,618
  • May 30, 2012 2:44am May 30, 2012 2:44am
Quoting 9047
Descending wedge/spider on NZDUSD .... sell on a break of 0.7586.
Possibly wait for re-test.
Target the gap.

I'm uncertain about it - so its very unlikely I will trade it.
I'm already short and looking to add @ 7584 on a RR.
  • #3,619
  • Edited 2:48am May 30, 2012 2:46am | Edited 2:48am
Quoting Quidsey
I'm already short and looking to add @ 7584 on a RR.
Ah shucks ... peer pressure
Now that everything has started moving I'm in (on the break).
  • #3,620
  • May 30, 2012 2:48am May 30, 2012 2:48am
Quoting 9047
Ah shucks ... peer pressure
Now that everything has started moving I'm in.
Haha, there we go!

Odd that this pair is still holding up, lagging the other usd pairs that have come down quite a bit.
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