Cesarnc's market talk, gossips, rumours & fun

.......well is just that it is back and forth, they have no direction, now is going up but wait and see, how it drops.......or not, but It will........lol, Ingmarforex should be with her..........

http://www.tumblr.com/photo/1280/cha...i6anj30kza5V9J

.........or with her......

http://www.tumblr.com/photo/1280/cha...e6ta4c8be19sfj

.........or her......

http://24.media.tumblr.com/tumblr_kz...pmcio1_500.jpg

..........perhaps with her.........






http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_ZKZifeciof...0/DSC_0397.jpg

..........Or maybe with her.......

http://www.tumblr.com/photo/1280/cha...t4imlnICfZ5J9h

..........Sure not with her........she is taken

http://www.tumblr.com/photo/1280/cha...nds55ldLaiZ1G2

.........Is just a fascination with bikes..........

http://24.media.tumblr.com/tumblr_lz...pmcio1_400.jpg

Roro chongy. I was with gemma biking lol

Here some bs from me what i think is going on etc in the markets.
But remember i am loco.

Eurobonds hollande merkel/faceoff

Euro needs a fiscal union like a united states of europe to operate well with 1 kinda bond and a central bank what can print like the fed. So basically bailout itself lol.

Thursday markets started to squueze bit on this eurobond rumour i heard that a hedgefund had a bet on a flattening yield curve but didt had enough margin. So they where short the longterm and got squeezed out by 30 billion because the yield steepened a bit. So now it has probally some effect everytime this eurobond talk comes in drives market bit higher on short covering.
But if you look at the reality the argument from the ze Germans side.
If they accept eurobonds they have to borrow at rates that will eliminate all there gdp next year. So this is 1 of the problems in europe the cooperation isnt there realy countries still look to much at there selve imo then at a union.
Also something intresting in my own country sometime ago the parlement falled. What i see is the leftside is getting less populair what want budget cuts and no stimulus. I expect the right wings to grow with a rise in votes in september. So the left side green talk is getting more distrust by the europeans in more countries. The pain is here now people wanna see different solutions because for a lot of people the pain is there really. So if the right wings win this might be a good thing but on the other hand it also brings more negative side because some are to extreme what isnt good for the countries itself. For example whe here have that guy wilders he is a bit extreme in terms against the muslim faith so not that good.
Assia

China pmi well most pmi getting worse shows slowering. Wen commented what i readed on reuters last week was something that they wanna so more stimulus but imo it is another bluff or bs story. I dont see this comming yet.
Jpy cpi 0.4% in april BOJ cant do to much regarding easing inflation target 1% so probally no more easing next month.

Oil

Well crude is a tricky 1 i still like this 1 long the whole slowdown in the economy refelcts now in oil prices. But last week there was a talk with iran but didnt solve anything (so the talking doesnt really work) the question is now how long it will take for this to escalate the whole focus is mainly europe now all the time but this 1 is still lurking in the back imo. This might be good hegde for example short a european autostock like bmw or something and long crude. Not sure yet how to play.

Us

Underperforming in the us are the financials lol with jp morgan the london whale (shocker) I think people slowly starting to focus on the us fiscal wall now but could be a big problem in 2013 imo. The bush taxcuts been reversed at the end of the year 600 billion equal to 3% gdp means basicaly the us doesn't grow next year.
So if the fed wanna do qe and it has effect how big it needs to be so the us to be net out. 600 billion means the us will just about growth in 2013. If whe double taht means basically a trillion of qe then basically the us stands still so that doesnt look good especially with the yuro problems next to it.

So the short squeezes are probally synthehic but give opportunities to short again. imo really there isnt a fix yet. Well a greece exit could be a temporilly fix where whe probally will rally on after a panic sell move .but that probally not gonna happen to soon.
Imo the markets gonna stay bit calm and squeeze a bit till the greece elections talk hit the wires again.

thx ingmar....like your analysis about mkts stay calm until Greek elections and opp to short higher up.

Thanks you liked it. How is the weather there where you are now here it is freakin nice to nice to be inside.

I’m waiting to see if Mariano Rajoy gets away with pumping 19 B Euro into the Spanish Bankia, who will then send this debt to the ECB in order for it to be exchanged for real Euros that will kindly be printed by Mario Draghi. We all know that LTRO is the front for the illegal printing press in the back room.

Hmm, if this goes through, expect a whole lot more banks (read governments here) around Europe, demanding the same deal from Mario.

The point about this is that the bondholders receive their checks, without banks and governments having to go direct to the market to raise capital. Spain reduces its outgoings massively, thus appeasing the fears on the yields of Spanish-issued bonds and at the same time not having to ask for a sovereign bailout; and, and here is the beauty of it all, any such payment to Bankia/Spanish Government will have been conducted using the eurozone’s own rules to force the ECB to directly bail out a bank. Pff, it’s amazing how convoluted this whole shame is.

Can Mario afford to say no to Bankia… I think not, as to do so will only increase the pace at which Europe approaches the wall. So. I think fresh cogs are being placed onto the mechanics of raping the taxpayer, and that the printing machine is currently being tested in its new configuration, prior to being scaled up to full operating speed once the fate of Greece is sealed in a few weeks’ time.

Yeah lets rape the taxpayers again bankers are the biggest crooks a organized maffia on this planet.

i am liking on a technical perspective shorts around starting 1.2650ish medium risk entries but trend is strong second 1s low risk entries around the 1.2783 1.28.

Now i have small short from 1.2608. expansion from today. could move to 1.2523 but markets probally not gonna move much today

very fine pont there. thx for posting that insight. it may also be a preliminary signal of much larger scale stimulus.......too quiet on the central bank front for my liking except Mervyn King who i think has tipped for other rounds ahead.

how is/was the vacation?

Not sure about everyone else, but currently sat under the pergola in the garden, enjoying the beautiful weather, shrill of birds, and sights of cows chewing the cud on a most glorious day.

Oh, and got the work e-mails out of the way, so surfing away...

nice and hot on saturday but cooled down sunday. got a few things out of the way last week so probably not so busy this week - need to relax a bit too and get caught up on the reading.

Well i think i am gonna join you under the pergola weather is screaming to me and enjoying aslong as it last end of the week whe got the rain comming back again

Gents, can anyone recommend a method/software that will enable me to copy from youtube all of the sound tracks that get posted to this thread?

Screaming... it would almost be a crime not to take advantage of the weather. Hope all is well up in the Netherlands. The North West of France is very agreeable at the moment.

Yeah i got since last week new phone htc thingy it has google adroid on it there like tons of tools for it regarding markets. To read up i like it it gives newest headlines etc you select on intrest right away from bloomberg etc right away pretty cool. To stay in tune also charting things on it even a remote so you can watch your desktop on phone by remote control things like that pretty handy.

You want them in mp3?

http://www.youtube-mp3.org/nl

it is a dutch site but it speaks basicly for itself you paste the link in the box then click conversion. And then dowload to download the mp3.