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Weekly COT report Analysis + Trade Ideas

  • #5,261
  • May 22, 2012 2:40pm May 22, 2012 2:40pm
Quoting Verb
I'm shorting this one also around that area.
Yea, it turns out to be a good trade
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  • #5,262
  • May 22, 2012 6:48pm May 22, 2012 6:48pm
Quoting shahab8b
Yea, it turns out to be a good trade
Nice! My pending sell limit is actually at 80.55. Should be a nice retrace if it gets there.
  • #5,263
  • May 22, 2012 8:59pm May 22, 2012 8:59pm
hello Shahab, very interesting thread thanks for your posts. I post this chart after reading the start of your thread about COT Reports etc. I like to track the exposures of the non-reporting players but like to break them down into non-reporting longs and shorts. Below is the Aussie Dollar with only non-reporting Short positions. It looks like they are as short now as they were at most of the other market bottoms. (Oct etc) The down trend seems relentless so it's hard to look for buy signals however I think if there is a strong one it could fly based on the non-reporting shorts. Meanwhile I sit and wait!
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  • #5,264
  • May 22, 2012 9:00pm May 22, 2012 9:00pm
Further to above, the non-reporting Longs are as light now as they always are at the bottoms too
  • #5,265
  • May 23, 2012 7:10am May 23, 2012 7:10am
Quoting shahab8b
UJ: short setup on the chart
UJ: short trade update
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  • #5,266
  • May 23, 2012 7:20am May 23, 2012 7:20am
Quoting Hyperion
hello Shahab, very interesting thread thanks for your posts. I post this chart after reading the start of your thread about COT Reports etc. I like to track the exposures of the non-reporting players but like to break them down into non-reporting longs and shorts. Below is the Aussie Dollar with only non-reporting Short positions. It looks like they are as short now as they were at most of the other market bottoms. (Oct etc) The down trend seems relentless so it's hard to look for buy signals however I think if there is a strong one it could...
Thanks. When it comes to COT please note the followings: 1)I never use COT alone; I mainly use my technical analysis;however, when I look at market condition, I consider COT and other factors (e.g macro, events).2) I use non-commercial not non-reportable. In this case, I see decreasing long positions in Aussie which correlates to a clear downtrend. That being said, I prefer selling rallies.
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  • #5,267
  • May 23, 2012 7:25am May 23, 2012 7:25am
Quoting shahab8b
GOLD: short setup on the chart
Gold: short trades on gold as suggested earlier.
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  • #5,268
  • May 23, 2012 8:12am May 23, 2012 8:12am
You always need to think about probabilities of different scenarios before placing a trade. Here, I provided the different possible scenarios on EU (weekly chart). Let me what you think by choosing from A to E.
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  • #5,269
  • Edited 11:04am May 23, 2012 9:19am | Edited 11:04am
Quoting shahab8b
You always need to think about probabilities of different scenarios before placing a trade. Here, I provided the different possible scenarios on EU (weekly chart). Let me what you think by choosing from A to E.
I go with B.Divergence in MACD.Not sure about the TP.


Thanks
Mike
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Failure, is a wonderful teacher!
  • #5,270
  • May 23, 2012 7:05pm May 23, 2012 7:05pm
Quoting shahab8b
You always need to think about probabilities of different scenarios before placing a trade. Here, I provided the different possible scenarios on EU (weekly chart). Let me what you think by choosing from A to E.
I'm heading down the road of C or A. The bulls tried to pull something off at support which is now resistance. If we close this week below the old support level with expanded range then EU is going to need something major to bring it back up. The attempts of recent have come to naught. Supply is stronger for the moment.
  • #5,271
  • May 23, 2012 7:53pm May 23, 2012 7:53pm
Quoting mike1349
I go with B.Divergence in MACD.Not sure about the TP.


Thanks
Mike
You should be careful with that kind of divergence. You need a tight SL or wait until a bullish candle shows up.
  • #5,272
  • Edited 8:00pm May 23, 2012 7:55pm | Edited 8:00pm
Quoting ady_babe
I'm heading down the road of C or A. The bulls tried to pull something off at support which is now resistance. If we close this week below the old support level with expanded range then EU is going to need something major to bring it back up. The attempts of recent have come to naught. Supply is stronger for the moment.
I was thinking the same when I posted that. I went short on the support, and so many people might not find that logical; placed my SL above the recent swing high. Let's see what happens on Fri close.
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  • #5,273
  • May 23, 2012 9:03pm May 23, 2012 9:03pm
Quoting shahab8b
Crude: possible long setup on the chart
Crude: Update on the suggested long setup
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  • #5,274
  • May 25, 2012 11:01am May 25, 2012 11:01am
UCAD: it's a classic ending diagonal. The probability of a downward breakout is 69%. I am a bit careful with a naked short though as I've seen these patterns sometimes violently breakout to the upside. If shorting, keep SL in place or wait until a break of the highlighted supports on the chart.
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  • #5,275
  • Edited 11:57am May 25, 2012 11:42am | Edited 11:57am
Quoting shahab8b
UCAD: it's a classic ending diagonal. The probability of a downward breakout is 69%. I am a bit careful with a naked short though as I've seen these patterns sometimes violently breakout to the upside. If shorting, keep SL in place or wait until a break of the highlighted supports on the chart.
Hi shahab,

Nice setup UCAD. Thx.

Best Regards,
Sol
  • #5,276
  • May 28, 2012 6:48am May 28, 2012 6:48am
Quoting shahab8b
UCAD: it's a classic ending diagonal. The probability of a downward breakout is 69%. I am a bit careful with a naked short though as I've seen these patterns sometimes violently breakout to the upside. If shorting, keep SL in place or wait until a break of the highlighted supports on the chart.

UCAD: update on the suggested short trade
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  • #5,277
  • May 29, 2012 2:08am May 29, 2012 2:08am
AU: intraday short setup
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  • #5,278
  • May 29, 2012 12:26pm May 29, 2012 12:26pm
Gold: I like the idea of going short and selling any short term rally.
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  • #5,279
  • May 29, 2012 12:32pm May 29, 2012 12:32pm
Gold: long term view; the more I look at it the more it reminds of a reversal triangle.
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  • #5,280
  • May 29, 2012 6:31pm May 29, 2012 6:31pm
some touch trades taken based on weekly levels
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Thank you Malcolm, Belekas, Jim, raczekfx and Ryanmcd !
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