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  • #1,061
  • May 24, 2012 3:43pm May 24, 2012 3:43pm
5 Live trades this week 1). 05/22/12 Eur... + $ 550.00
2). 05/23/12 Aud...+ $1,300.00
3). 05/23/12 Aud... - $ 330.00
4). 05/24/12 Aud...+ $2,130.00
5). 05/24/12 Aud...Current live trade up $990.00.

I will be closing this trade very soon. See Chart below.

I show this because it proves the Power of trading Supply/Demand and VSA. The Aud has been in accumilation phase since 05/22/12. I have been using the Daily 78.6% retracement as my protective wall knowing that the Institutions are in the process of accumilating all short contracts with their Long contracts based on my analysis of the Daily volume bars. However, If PA does close below the 78.6% Fib then we should see a hefty drop in PA. Rocky...

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  • #1,062
  • May 24, 2012 3:46pm May 24, 2012 3:46pm
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  • #1,063
  • May 24, 2012 7:33pm May 24, 2012 7:33pm
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  • #1,064
  • May 24, 2012 7:50pm May 24, 2012 7:50pm
Nice work Rocky.
  • #1,065
  • May 24, 2012 9:18pm May 24, 2012 9:18pm
hi, the indicator that you are using, what is it? How do you determine where you draw your FIB lines and how do you determine your demand and supply? Do you use an indicator for your demand and supply?
  • #1,066
  • Edited 10:27pm May 24, 2012 10:18pm | Edited 10:27pm
Hi, I tried my best. did i get it right? should i be using a higher time frame? Are my fib lines drawn correctly?
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  • #1,067
  • May 24, 2012 10:54pm May 24, 2012 10:54pm
Quoting dotless
Hi, I tried my best. did i get it right? should i be using a higher time frame? Are my fib lines drawn correctly?

I don't know if this will be any help to you. But here is a shot at it. It is my opinion that you can draw fibs and zones for any time frame. However the higher the time frame the more reliable...usually.

Now when it comes to drawing fibs. I have some specific things in my trading plan. 1. the move needs to be over 60 pips. 2. I will also draw them from swing high to lows if they cross the 50 MA. The point is IMO to be consistent.

I hope this is something to work with. I have attached a screenshot to show an example.

I have seen some people use the zigzag indicator to help draw fibs but this clutters things up to much for my liking. For me it is a matter of simplicity.
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Illegitimi non carborundum - Noli pati a scelestis opprimi.
  • #1,068
  • May 24, 2012 11:07pm May 24, 2012 11:07pm
By the way Rocky.. The 78.6 fib. one of my favorites. I have heard it called the "Bankers Reversal" Not sure if you heard this or not.

I like the thread you have here

Rufus
Illegitimi non carborundum - Noli pati a scelestis opprimi.
  • #1,069
  • May 25, 2012 12:16am May 25, 2012 12:16am
Quoting Rufus
I don't know if this will be any help to you. But here is a shot at it. It is my opinion that you can draw fibs and zones for any time frame. However the higher the time frame the more reliable...usually.

Now when it comes to drawing fibs. I have some specific things in my trading plan. 1. the move needs to be over 60 pips. 2. I will also draw them from swing high to lows if they cross the 50 MA. The point is IMO to be consistent.

I hope this is something to work with. I have attached a screenshot to show an example.

I have seen some...
thanks. what does the yellow zone indicate? is your 50MA exponential? So you are saying you will only draw fibs if it crosses the 50?
  • #1,070
  • May 25, 2012 12:32am May 25, 2012 12:32am
Quoting rocky
6 hrs Chart, not Daily...
Attachment
Hey Rocky, did Dx hit the turning area on H6?- this rally is "a killer"! lol
  • #1,071
  • May 25, 2012 1:13am May 25, 2012 1:13am
Quoting dotless
thanks. what does the yellow zone indicate? is your 50MA exponential? So you are saying you will only draw fibs if it crosses the 50?
Yellow is showing a supply zone that corresponded with a fib retracement. I look at things like this as an added odds enhancer.

Exponential. And usually only swing highs and lows as it crosses the 50. But of course this will not always be the case, but what I shoot for. One of the few reasons I have this MA on my chart.
Illegitimi non carborundum - Noli pati a scelestis opprimi.
  • #1,072
  • May 25, 2012 1:18am May 25, 2012 1:18am
Quoting Rufus
Yellow is showing a supply zone that corresponded with a fib retracement. I look at things like this as an added odds enhancer.

Exponential. And usually only swing highs and lows as it crosses the 50. But of course this will not always be the case, but what I shoot for. One of the few reasons I have this MA on my chart.
I see. I have the 60 EMA on my chart and it's quite close to the 50. seems good enough to me. So in the chart that you had shown to me, you would excpect the price to retrace back up since it has hit 0% again. right?
  • #1,073
  • May 25, 2012 2:33am May 25, 2012 2:33am
6A - nice!! http://img577.imageshack.us/img577/337/oztd.png
Sometimes hard to buy the pullback as the ideal stop placement can get too far.

Most USD pairs at critical points due to this level - http://imageshack.us/photo/my-images/528/79910101.png/

Move is extended and would think some consolidation below the level is needed for a true break.
  • #1,074
  • May 25, 2012 5:51am May 25, 2012 5:51am
Quoting AlexC
Nice work Rocky.
Thanks Alexc...Rocky
  • #1,075
  • May 25, 2012 6:06am May 25, 2012 6:06am
Quoting Rufus
By the way Rocky.. The 78.6 fib. one of my favorites. I have heard it called the "Bankers Reversal" Not sure if you heard this or not.

I like the thread you have here

Rufus
Hi Rufus, I have never heard of the "Bankers Reversal". But the 78.6% Fib converging with all my other studies act like a brick wall holding PA in its rightful Place.

Thanks for answering questions that dotless had. I'll show and explain my Live trades when I have time to do so but I really get sidetracked answering questions. So feel free to stop by once in a while, your help is appreciated, Rocky...
  • #1,076
  • May 25, 2012 6:10am May 25, 2012 6:10am
Quoting vitall
Hey Rocky, did Dx hit the turning area on H6?- this rally is "a killer"! lol
Hi Vitall, The dollar (daily chart) is approaching a critical point, Expect the Eur to rise very soon... I'll log some charts this week...Rocky
  • #1,077
  • May 25, 2012 6:14am May 25, 2012 6:14am
Quoting elroytrader
6A - nice!! http://img577.imageshack.us/img577/337/oztd.png
Sometimes hard to buy the pullback as the ideal stop placement can get too far.

Most USD pairs at critical points due to this level - http://imageshack.us/photo/my-images/528/79910101.png/

Move is extended and would think some consolidation below the level is needed for a true break.
Good morning elroytrader, You are right, there is going to be some big reversals very soon with the Dollar, Eur, GBP, CHF...I will be focusing on Eur Futures this coming week, Rocky...
  • #1,078
  • May 25, 2012 6:15am May 25, 2012 6:15am
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  • #1,079
  • May 25, 2012 10:19am May 25, 2012 10:19am
Quoting dotless
I see. I have the 60 EMA on my chart and it's quite close to the 50. seems good enough to me. So in the chart that you had shown to me, you would excpect the price to retrace back up since it has hit 0% again. right?
Not necessarily.

The 38.2 fib was a retracement of the previous move. Whether it falls back to the 0 fib is not important unless of course you are short.

Fib can also be used to set profit targets, especially if S/D areas are questionable. Fib extensions for me with a 78.6 retracement is 100 and127. The GU has an example of this. The 1.618 is often a turning area and we hit that as well.

Fibonacci is a predictive indicator and when used in conjunction with S/D can be a powerful tool.


There is a lot here and it is at times difficult to grasp all at once. But be patient with it. Watch Rocky draw his fibs and you will start seeing their potential.
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Illegitimi non carborundum - Noli pati a scelestis opprimi.
  • #1,080
  • May 25, 2012 10:24am May 25, 2012 10:24am
Quoting Rufus
Not necessarily.

The 38.2 fib was a retracement of the previous move. Whether it falls back to the 0 fib is not important unless of course you are short.

Fib can also be used to set profit targets, especially if S/D areas are questionable. Fib extensions for me with a 78.6 retracement is 100 and127. The GU has an example of this. The 1.618 is often a turning area and we hit that as well.

Fibonacci is a predictive indicator and when used in conjunction with S/D can be a powerful tool.


There is a lot here and it is at times difficult...
In a previous post I said I draw fibs when price swings across my moving average. The above chart was set with fibs on a 15m chart then went to 5m for clarity with the move,. Hopefully no confusion.

Illegitimi non carborundum - Noli pati a scelestis opprimi.
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