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Extreme TMA System

  • #11,041
  • May 24, 2012 11:11am May 24, 2012 11:11am
Quoting aren
Trend+TMA="2T"
is that an indicator for those diagonal lines?? looks like a pitchfork
  • #11,042
  • May 24, 2012 11:21am May 24, 2012 11:21am
Quoting KumoDragon
EU and GU 15 M shorts are working out well, after waiting through about + 30 then a retrace all the way to entry.

GU +37
EU +49
+15 locked on each. Both already made it to the opposite band, but I'm letting it ride as I see two targets below that. Will lock in the band when and if that target is reached.

P.S. I must say I'm impressed. when this method works as intended it gives you near perfect entry.

Yes. But at the moment I have a lot of doubts whether this system WORKS at all (except of Al -to whom I am thankful for contribution).
There are many questions unanswered..... there are number of doubts unsolved. OR maybe I just do not have enough skill to use it. It is also very very much possible and likely.

What are your thoughts Guys?

BR

Mike
  • #11,043
  • May 24, 2012 11:38am May 24, 2012 11:38am
Quoting musashikilla
Yes. But at the moment I have a lot of doubts whether this system WORKS at all (except of Al -to whom I am thankful for contribution).
There are many questions unanswered..... there are number of doubts unsolved. OR maybe I just do not have enough skill to use it. It is also very very much possible and likely.

What are your thoughts Guys?

BR

Mike
Quoting musashikilla
We will see what works better. I applied 5x5 EA and entered SHORT at 1,25364.


Well, if you are going short at the bottom of a channel, that you mixed up the concept. It's the other way arround. In the morning you went short where I went long, remember?

I have my sahre of doubts, but as a concept, looking mathematically, it's logicall. Forex is statistial movement arround median. If movement is extreme to one side, it will, sooner or later, return back to median. The only problem is, when. That's what I like about the system, but you should not disregards the PA. PA is the king, period. The latter is giving me more issues than the TMA idea overall.

BR
  • #11,044
  • May 24, 2012 11:44am May 24, 2012 11:44am
Quoting tp0440
Well, if you are going short at the bottom of a channel, that you mixed up the concept. It's the other way arround. In the morning you went short where I went long, remember?

I have my sahre of doubts, but as a concept, looking mathematically, it's logicall. Forex is statistial movement arround median. If movement is extreme to one side, it will, sooner or later, return back to median. The only problem is, when. That's what I like about the system, but you should not disregards the PA. PA is the king, period. The latter is giving me more issues...
I think it's a pretty sound concept/method. mush just in case you misunderstood, you look for shorts when price has spiked above the top of the channel and longs when it spikes below, then confirm with other indicators if it's a good option to take the trade as per the directions.

That alone makes it a very solid method as you are waiting for price to go up before shorting, rather than following a move down to only have it retrace on you.

Also I trade 15M so far as per the directions. I think AL and couple of others are trading on higher time frames, so if you are following them AND someone trading 15M you'll get confused, as the moves overlap but the waves are bigger on higher timeframes. what could be an entry and an exit on 15M, would often just be a retrace/middle of move for higher up time frames.
  • #11,045
  • May 24, 2012 11:52am May 24, 2012 11:52am
mishu here is my last successful trade. It just got stopped out for +47 pips.

The two gold lines are my entry and exit. Entrance on the top, for a short. I entered once I saw a red heiken ashi candle start to form. I followed the directions from post one.

H4 =ranging (-25-+25) or down (it was down around -70) watch the numbers in the little window.
15M = ranging or down

My target was the opposite TMA band below. I let it go past and tried to lock in hoping it would go further but got stopped out, my EU trade is close to stop but might go further down.

P.S. Keep in mind I've only done 5 live trades with this. So far though all are postive and trades have played out as to what the method is based on, which is extreme price movement past the mean.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #11,046
  • May 24, 2012 11:57am May 24, 2012 11:57am
Quoting Grins
Sure, let's play 'What if?" IF Greece exits the euro I'd expect an initial jump. This rise in the euro would weaken the USD since the value of the USDX is weighted so heavily with the euro, 58.6%.

Once Greece has found an exit there would likely be a scene resembling the Pied Piper (Greece) as the other PIIGS joined the parade. (PIIGS are Portugal, Ireland, Italy, Greece and Spain) The euro, left with only relatively strong economies, would go through the roof.

A very strong euro is death to the remaining euro countries since their export...
Absolutely wonderful explanation, Lee. You really know your macro and your currencies. Excellent.
Observation is the path to discovery.
  • #11,047
  • May 24, 2012 11:59am May 24, 2012 11:59am
Quoting KumoDragon
EU and GU 15 M shorts are working out well, after waiting through about + 30 then a retrace all the way to entry.

GU +37
EU +49
+15 locked on each. Both already made it to the opposite band, but I'm letting it ride as I see two targets below that. Will lock in the band when and if that target is reached.

P.S. I must say I'm impressed. when this method works as intended it gives you near perfect entry.
The more TMA channels that are slanting in your direction or ranging, the higher the probability of success. Starting with the Daily channel. Donīt overlook the daily...
Observation is the path to discovery.
  • #11,048
  • May 24, 2012 12:01pm May 24, 2012 12:01pm
Quoting Dyekid217
is that an indicator for those diagonal lines?? looks like a pitchfork
In your MT4, go to Insert/Channels/Fibonacci.
Observation is the path to discovery.
  • #11,049
  • May 24, 2012 12:03pm May 24, 2012 12:03pm
Al, what are your thought on EURUSD long right now? I mean, channel wise it's confirmed. But slope isn't there and we have hollidays on Monday...??

BR
  • #11,050
  • May 24, 2012 12:09pm May 24, 2012 12:09pm
Quoting Alorente
The more TMA channels that are slanting in your direction or ranging, the higher the probability of success. Starting with the Daily channel. Donīt overlook the daily...
Yep, with any method I try I scroll through D1, 4H, 1H and look to see if I think I have room for the presupposed trade. EU and GU looked good to me when I got the spike, so I took em.

P.S. Thanks again for sharing your method AL. I've been looking for/trying to come up with a method that entered off of spikes/tops and bottoms of bolinger bands. The problem was I didnt have anything to filter the bolinger band tops and bottoms to make sure I wasn't entering on a BB run or against the stronger direction. I think you're method has a whole lot of promise as is.

As it stands now, I'm 6 for 6 in winnning trades. Total pips: 210. I can't remember the last time I won 6 trades in a row that wasn't jerking around and setting at BE +1. And all I did was follow everything in the first post and follow what looked to me to be the trend of the moment on the 15M.
  • #11,051
  • May 24, 2012 12:09pm May 24, 2012 12:09pm
Quoting tp0440
Al, what are your thought on EURUSD long right now? I mean, channel wise it's confirmed. But slope isn't there and we have hollidays on Monday...??

BR
As I said this morning, I am long EU, UJ, etc. Remember, I trade small positions relative to my account size. I leave pairs plenty of space to move. I donīt mind large drawdown because I always have plenty of spare margin (400% to 600%). As far as EU, I am focused on 1.30 (Roughly the 61.8% Fib retracement). I take a snapshot at entry and another at exit. What goes on in between is irrelevant for me. By the end of next week I will have my camera ready to take the 1.30 snapshot if EU poses for me.
Observation is the path to discovery.
  • #11,052
  • May 24, 2012 12:11pm May 24, 2012 12:11pm
Quoting KumoDragon
Yep, with any method I try I scroll through D1, 4H, 1H and look to see if I think I have room for the presupposed trade. EU and GU looked good to me when I got the spike, so I took em.

P.S. Thanks again for sharing your method AL. I've been looking for/trying to come up with a method that entered off of spikes/tops and bottoms of bolinger bands. The problem was I didnt have anything to filter the bolinger band tops and bottoms to make sure I wasn't entering on a BB run or against the stronger direction. I think you're method has a whole...
Iīm glad itīs working for you. Itīs a great feeling when it does...
Observation is the path to discovery.
  • #11,053
  • May 24, 2012 12:17pm May 24, 2012 12:17pm
Quoting Alorente
As I said this morning, I am long EU, UJ, etc. Remember, I trade small positions relative to my account size. I leave pairs plenty of space to move. I donīt mind large drawdown because I always have plenty of spare margin (400% to 600%). As far as EU, I am focused on 1.30 (Roughly the 61.8% Fib retracement). I take a snapshot at entry and another at exit. What goes on in between is irrelevant for me. By the end of next week I will have my camera ready to take the 1.30 snapshot if EU poses for me.
I get all this, thanks for taking the effort to explain again. But for me the issue is, if we get to about 1,2475, it could be a very steep hill down. But then again, that's what fx is about, isn't it? Extremens...

Well, I guess small entry wouldn't hurt, but I'll use moderate SL. PA is definitely way out.

BTW: you must be one hell of a poker player...

BR
  • #11,054
  • May 24, 2012 12:22pm May 24, 2012 12:22pm
Something interesting is happening this afternoon. EU is down steadily from 1.26 to 1.2520 today BUT UsdJpy did not follow down as it usually does due to Jpy drawing safe haven trades. In fact, it has actually risen from 79.38 to 79.61 while EU was dropping. Bottom Line: I think we may very well be seeing the breakout of UJ happening as we speak.
Observation is the path to discovery.
  • #11,055
  • May 24, 2012 12:28pm May 24, 2012 12:28pm
Quoting Alorente
Absolutely wonderful explanation, Lee. You really know your macro and your currencies. Excellent.
Thank you, Al, you're very kind, I hope it was clear.

Lee
"The more I practice the luckier I get." Gary Player
  • #11,056
  • May 24, 2012 12:31pm May 24, 2012 12:31pm
For those that were interested in how the option levels are calculated (and can read/google translate Russian), click on my name. I have posted the web site address there (in comments section), instead of posting it in the thread and then get a violation notice from Twee.

Good luck!

Carl
  • #11,057
  • May 24, 2012 1:01pm May 24, 2012 1:01pm
Is there a programmer that can adjust the, "extreme TMA info," indicator so that it is moveable/positionable around the chart?

I realize you can adjust the font size, but even small it still blocks current price action unless I max out the chart. Kind a pain in the ass to have to manipulate the charts constantly to see currnent price, while trying to display four pairs.
  • #11,058
  • May 24, 2012 1:13pm May 24, 2012 1:13pm
Quoting KumoDragon
Is there a programmer that can adjust the, "extreme TMA info," indicator so that it is moveable/positionable around the chart?

I realize you can adjust the font size, but even small it still blocks current price action unless I max out the chart. Kind a pain in the ass to have to manipulate the charts constantly to see currnent price, while trying to display four pairs.
Why donīt you enable chart shift and slide the little arrow to the left?

After that, you save the template and never have to adjust it again...
Observation is the path to discovery.
  • #11,059
  • May 24, 2012 1:14pm May 24, 2012 1:14pm
Quoting Grins
Thank you, Al, you're very kind, I hope it was clear.

Lee
Yes Lee, your explanation was perfect IMO.

Thank you and Al for making me a better trader.
  • #11,060
  • May 24, 2012 1:35pm May 24, 2012 1:35pm
Is here an programmer in the thread which understand the system.

It need help for it. You can send me a private massage.
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