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Extreme TMA System

  • #11,021
  • May 24, 2012 6:18am May 24, 2012 6:18am
  •  Mr C
  • Joined Mar 2012 | Status: Knowledge is "potential" power | 439 Posts
Quoting crodzilla
The PUT options have been ruling the last several days, providing excellent support/resistance levels. The open interest on the PUT options on the way down has been mind boggling. Volume yesterday at the 1.2586 level was a record breaking 4800 contracts.

The next big PUT open interest level is just below 1.2500 with 7400 contracts open.

Carl
Thanks, PC
Of all the things I've lost I miss my mind the most .
  • #11,022
  • May 24, 2012 6:47am May 24, 2012 6:47am
Quoting crodzilla
The next big PUT open interest level is just below 1.2500 with 7400 contracts open.
Carl
7400 contracts...????

Well, 1,2520 zone should act as very strong resistance. But if this breaks, we will probably see 1,1850.

BR
  • #11,023
  • May 24, 2012 6:48am May 24, 2012 6:48am
Quoting crodzilla
The PUT options have been ruling the last several days, providing excellent support/resistance levels. The open interest on the PUT options on the way down has been mind boggling. Volume yesterday at the 1.2586 level was a record breaking 4800 contracts.

The next big PUT open interest level is just below 1.2500 with 7400 contracts open.

Carl
What are those lines on this chart?
  • #11,024
  • May 24, 2012 6:58am May 24, 2012 6:58am
Quoting Mr C
I use a solid line for the top band and a dashed line for bottom it helps.

PC
I use them opposite, as you say it helps but fill color will really clean up the charts.
On my iPad the BB use a fill color, it is very easy to see and neat.
Vandag is die dag.....
  • #11,025
  • May 24, 2012 7:04am May 24, 2012 7:04am
Closing USDCAD long (from stated this morning) for another 28 pips.

And hoping EURUSD holds and bounces up. Good piping everybody and see you in few hours.


BR
  • #11,026
  • May 24, 2012 7:13am May 24, 2012 7:13am
Quoting Leokira
I use them opposite, as you say it helps but fill color will really clean up the charts.
On my iPad the BB use a fill color, it is very easy to see and neat.
Netjies my vriend...ek hoop jy maak sakke vol pips!!
  • #11,027
  • May 24, 2012 7:33am May 24, 2012 7:33am
Quoting ncc74656
What are those lines on this chart?
These are options value levels. It is where the value of the CME futures option levels are at breakeven.

Carl
  • #11,028
  • May 24, 2012 7:48am May 24, 2012 7:48am
Quoting beto21_cwb
Thank you, Lee. I usually close half position when the center line is hit (right now at 0.9436), and let the other half run to the opposite band, or hit BE.

I asked for Al's opinion as this particular trade is happening in a unique scenario, IMO, a highly overbought USD, with the market surrounded of expectations / news regarding the Greece exit, which could take the USD even higher. I think the USD will continue to go up, but it needs to take a breath before resuming, that's why I entered this trade.

Anyway, it's always good to hear other...
If Greece eventually exits, wouldn't that be good for EU? Why would it drive USD higher?
  • #11,029
  • May 24, 2012 8:28am May 24, 2012 8:28am
Not if Spain, Italy, Portugal and Ireland leave soonafter.
  • #11,030
  • May 24, 2012 9:04am May 24, 2012 9:04am
  •  Mr C
  • Joined Mar 2012 | Status: Knowledge is "potential" power | 439 Posts
Took a peak still waiting for…

Final notification price is at Break Even (Red Line) or 4th notification price is at 2nd Recovery(Blue Line).

Well in conclusion it allows me to follow recovery of a trade with minutes of screen time while knowing where the price is at all times, this was my original intention and it’s so easy to use so it’s perfect as a recovery assistant and will save you hours as is.

As a monitor for TMA bands it’s great it does not drain the computer and you get visual and sound alert from multiple charts, if it followed the bands it would be almost perfect. Hope this Helps & That’s it.

Remember there will always be another trade, finish today before you start tomorrow.

I will post the results of the Recovery when done.

PC
Of all the things I've lost I miss my mind the most .
  • #11,031
  • May 24, 2012 9:14am May 24, 2012 9:14am
Quoting crodzilla
The PUT options have been ruling the last several days, providing excellent support/resistance levels. The open interest on the PUT options on the way down has been mind boggling. Volume yesterday at the 1.2586 level was a record breaking 4800 contracts.

The next big PUT open interest level is just below 1.2500 with 7400 contracts open.

Carl
Hi Crodzilla

I understand that the option lines you show are a propietary indicator not freely available.

Could you provide some information about how the lines are calculated?

For example, call lines are obtained by adding the call cost to the strike price, and put lines substracting the put cost to the trike price. Am I right?

Also, what maturity do you take into account? Or all maturities?

Thanks for your info.

g
  • #11,032
  • May 24, 2012 9:17am May 24, 2012 9:17am
Quoting grechmar
If Greece eventually exits, wouldn't that be good for EU? Why would it drive USD higher?
Sure, let's play 'What if?" IF Greece exits the euro I'd expect an initial jump. This rise in the euro would weaken the USD since the value of the USDX is weighted so heavily with the euro, 58.6%.

Once Greece has found an exit there would likely be a scene resembling the Pied Piper (Greece) as the other PIIGS joined the parade. (PIIGS are Portugal, Ireland, Italy, Greece and Spain) The euro, left with only relatively strong economies, would go through the roof.

A very strong euro is death to the remaining euro countries since their export markets would vanish, SNB has said they will spend whatever is necessary to keep Rolex watches affordable to the rest of the world by pegging the Franc to the Euro and not permitting it to rise. SNB has deeper pockets than Germany and it's not really an option for Germany to do this. A weak currency is necessary if you want to export stuff.



So, how does the EZ remain viable? By striving to have a weak currency to preserve exports. The PIIGS provide this weight, so in an ironic twist Germany needs Greece nearly as much as Greece needs Germany.


If Greece and the other PIIGS leave the euro there would be a huge initial spike, then the reality of a strong euro would set in and the economies still in the euro would tank because their exports would be unaffordable to the rest of us. The euro would again plummet and perhaps another worldwide recession would result spurring a flight to safety and in spite of QE 57 the USD will soar.

So, here's Germany daydreaming of a weak euro so we can all drive Volkswagens and drink Beck's. But along comes PBOC (Peoples Bank of China), SNB (Swiss National Bank) and your good friend and mine, the FED who all boldly say, "We will help keep the euro supported!" All because Europe is China's largest market, Europe is Switzerland's strongest market, and the FED likes the USD in the toilet because it helps exports and repatriation of jobs.

That's my nutshell of the fate of the euro.

Historically there are 2 safe havens, the JPY and the USD. Risk on, USD falls as money gets pulled from bonds and put in equities and commodities. (In FX it's AUD, NZD and CAD that rise in risk on markets) Japan is teetering on very real problems as an aging population overcomes it's system. I believe the USD will be the safe haven choice in times of risk off very soon, perhaps already. I'm with Al on this, usdjpy will see 1.15 or higher within the next year. I'm also building a usdcad position expecting 1.30 in the next year or two.

There. that's probably far more drivel than you wanted but there it is. In a nutshell, because the USDX (USD index) is weighted so heavily with the euro, by it's nature the USDX falls as the EUR rises. Some say, and I agree entirely, the weighting system should be reevaluated and more weight given to the commodity currencies to provide a more real valuation of the USD.

I hope it's clear, and this is only my view. Keeping the PIIGS is vital to the EUR, and that ain't gonna be easy.

Lee
"The more I practice the luckier I get." Gary Player
  • #11,033
  • May 24, 2012 9:22am May 24, 2012 9:22am
Quoting guibernaua
Hi Crodzilla

I understand that the option lines you show are a propietary indicator not freely available.

Could you provide some information about how the lines are calculated?

For example, call lines are obtained by adding the call cost to the strike price, and put lines substracting the put cost to the trike price. Am I right?

Also, what maturity do you take into account? Or all maturities?

Thanks for your info.

g
There is a Russian spreadsheet that calculates the data, for which I don't understand, for the most part. But, it is only calculating the front month, because those are where the "big boys" need to defend their prices.

The exact calculations are a mystery to me. I have not had the time to try and dissect/translate the Russian version. But, I think you are essentially right.

Carl
  • #11,034
  • May 24, 2012 10:05am May 24, 2012 10:05am
EU and GU 15 M shorts are working out well, after waiting through about + 30 then a retrace all the way to entry.

GU +37
EU +49
+15 locked on each. Both already made it to the opposite band, but I'm letting it ride as I see two targets below that. Will lock in the band when and if that target is reached.

P.S. I must say I'm impressed. when this method works as intended it gives you near perfect entry.
  • #11,035
  • Edited 10:44am May 24, 2012 10:27am | Edited 10:44am
Quoting crodzilla
There is a Russian spreadsheet that calculates the data, for which I don't understand, for the most part. But, it is only calculating the front month, because those are where the "big boys" need to defend their prices.

The exact calculations are a mystery to me. I have not had the time to try and dissect/translate the Russian version. But, I think you are essentially right.

Carl
This looks very interesting. How would someone go about obtaining this indicator?

EDIT: Oops, nevermind. I just read your post #8206.
  • #11,036
  • May 24, 2012 10:29am May 24, 2012 10:29am
Quoting ncc74656
It fails on intel i5 with 4gig ram. How many charts do you have open? For me 2 seems maximum.
Running a lot of charts is a lot like gaming, graphics intensive. I suspect that the video card processor (GPU) and video memory might be much more important that ram.

"For those interested in games, the very nature of gaming applications means these will rely more heavily on the GPU than other components like memory. In other words, we saw very little difference in performance when comparing triple-channel DDR3-800 memory versus DDR3-1600." http://www.techspot.com/article/131-...ce/page15.html
The mind thinks, the heart knows...
  • #11,037
  • May 24, 2012 10:49am May 24, 2012 10:49am
Trend+TMA="2T"
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  • #11,038
  • May 24, 2012 11:02am May 24, 2012 11:02am
Quoting aren
Trend+TMA="2T"
What indicator are you using for those fibo/ trend levels? Or did you plot those yourself?

P.S. I took the Same EU TMA short, looks like you got in at the top of the spike though?
  • #11,039
  • May 24, 2012 11:02am May 24, 2012 11:02am
understand well.
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  • #11,040
  • May 24, 2012 11:06am May 24, 2012 11:06am
It's fibonacci channel.
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