Attachments: Extreme TMA System

Extreme TMA System

#10,841
May 20, 2012 5:00pm May 20, 2012 5:00pm

tp0440
| Joined Aug 2010 | Status: Trader | 399 Posts

Quoting DrDave

Disliked

Just a thought... there are 2 parts to the equation: USDCAD to fall, so weak USD OR strong CAD. So even if USD is indeed weak, you only need to have JPY EVEN WEAKER to give the appearance that the USD is strong in the USDJPY pair, indciating the USDJPY will go up. So just because the USD is stronger than JPY doesn't mean in the overall picture that USD is strong.

3 is less than 1000, so 3 is a "weak" number. 2 is less than 3, so 3 is a "strong" number. So 3 can be both "strong" AND "weak" at the same time....

Ignored

Well, obviousely. But, here the talk was about major USDCAD move, which would require USD to be weak. At least temporarily. Which means, this would be across the board movement.

It's due, no argument there, just not on horizont. Not yet anyway.

BR

#10,842
Edited 2:28am May 21, 2012 1:13am | Edited 2:28am

Dyekid217
Joined Mar 2011 | Status: Pip Boy Wonder | 1,378 Posts

hey all just wanted to ask a few questions to make sure I'm doing this correctly..

Right now EU has triggered a sell only tma slope.. Now I would wait for price to come up and hit the top band (dotted band) in order to place a sell correct??

and I'm trading off the 5 minute chart so would you guys recommend that I NEVER trade when price is ranging (.25 to -.25)

What if price goes up and touches the top band and it turns to ranging?

btw thanks everyone that's contributed here... seems like a very logical system to buy the dips and sell the rallies!!

sorry if the pic is a little dim.. i screenshotted it on my tv/monitor so the brightness isnt that good

EDIT: also what if you place a trade when the tma slope is Ranging and suddenly turns to buy/sell only which is opposite your position? Say you buy when price is ranging and past one of the bands.. then turns to sell only? would you wait for price to come back and touch the top band to exit?

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#10,843
May 21, 2012 2:25am May 21, 2012 2:25am

DrDave
| Membership Revoked | Joined Jun 2011 | 9,885 Posts

Quoting tp0440

Disliked

Well, obviousely. But, here the talk was about major USDCAD move, which would require USD to be weak. At least temporarily. Which means, this would be across the board movement.

It's due, no argument there, just not on horizont. Not yet anyway.

BR

Ignored

Although the main topic was about USDCAD falling, your concluding remarks were your concerns about USDJPY not displaying a weak USD:

Quote

Disliked

Either USD strenght will continue (and USDJPY can go up soon) and then EURUSD gap will not be closed for quite some time, or USD will give up, but then I wound't enter USDJPY not even with small position.

In any case, I think you missed my point. You want to see across-the board-movement with USD weak for all, but you expect USDJPY to go up, which you decided requires USD to be strong. But the USD need only be strong relative to JPY. So, that means JPY just needs to be be even weaker than the weak USD. You said yourself

Quote

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...JPY is here a complex issue due to possibility of intervntion if it falls to deep

You already see that JPY is falling. So, as long as it continues weak relative to USD, the USDJPY pair will go up as you expect, giving the appearance that the USD must be strong, breaking your desired across-the-board confluence. This falling of JPY does not make USD strong. When you see a case like this where a pair appears to present one of the currencies with a strength that is opposite that of several other pairs, it should indeed get your attention. But not for the reason that you are trying to make. The USDJPY can indeed go up and the USDCAD fall, because the USD goes weak compared to CAD, but JPY goes even weaker than the weak USD. However, the USDJPY could go DOWN as USDCAD goes down if the bank of Japan intervenes and props up the yen. So the USD strength can remain exactly the same, and it is the strength of the yen that dictates which direction the USDJPY pair goes.

DrDave

To free Gazans of Hamas, use whatever it takes.

#10,844
May 21, 2012 2:25am May 21, 2012 2:25am

Mr C
Joined Mar 2012 | Status: Knowledge is "potential" power | 439 Posts

Hi, evolution9
I put that together real quick and I have to speak off the top of my head or I sound like rain man, by the end I wanted to start over I noticed I was forgetting a few points and noticed some mistakes but I closed my chart without saving and lost everything so I gave up.
Since you asked I will post my less than masterpiece again.
http://screencast.com/t/MMjy62C0kj
Some of what I forgot.
I have a 5 digit broker so the prices on top and to the right with contract sizes 0.01 0.10 1.00 need the digit moved 1 to the left this does not change the example. (The bar between the high and close of trades on the right should be green not orange this also does not change the example).

For my example I use 4 digits no pipets and a pip is $1.
I renamed the L’s just personal preference again this does not change anything.
L1=Entry trade/ At -100 L2=1st Recovery / At -100 L3=2nd Recovery / At -100 L4=3rd Recovery
Never more than 4 trades at a time Start back by replacing your Entry trade if you need to keep going this is all in the pdf packet 1st post so any thing I forget or if I have this completely wrong someone please let me know it’s welcomed but it works for me.

Now I wanted to fit all 4 trades in one nice run so entered 2nd Recovery right away I did not wait 100pips.

If you understand you will notice I would have closed the trade on 1st Recovery or at the same place as in example but on a 2nd Recovery with about the same profit, I hope this helps you.
PC,
PS: I tried to answer your message and tp0440’s also but they would not send!

Of all the things I've lost I miss my mind the most .

#10,845
May 21, 2012 2:37am May 21, 2012 2:37am

DrDave
| Membership Revoked | Joined Jun 2011 | 9,885 Posts

Quoting Dyekid217

Disliked

hey all just wanted to ask a few questions to make sure I'm doing this correctly..

Right now EU has triggered a sell only tma slope.. Now I would wait for price to come up and hit the top band (dotted band) in order to place a sell correct??

and I'm trading off the 5 minute chart so would you guys recommend that I NEVER trade when price is ranging (.25 to -.25)

What if price goes up and touches the top band and it turns to ranging?

btw thanks everyone that's contributed here... seems like a very logical system to buy the dips and sell the...

Ignored

I recommend that you read the entire thread. Not only will it answer all the question that you posted here, but also you will be exposed to a wealth of valuable, free information and trading insights. (If you already read it, read it again and take notes, because you have missed some basic points in the system.)

Because you're askling this

Quote

Disliked

and I'm trading off the 5 minute chart so would you guys recommend that I NEVER trade when price is ranging (.25 to -.25)

I suggest that you stop trading completely until you can determine for yourself if trading M5 with ranging TMA slope fits your trading style or not.

DrDave

To free Gazans of Hamas, use whatever it takes.

#10,846
May 21, 2012 2:47am May 21, 2012 2:47am

Dyekid217
Joined Mar 2011 | Status: Pip Boy Wonder | 1,378 Posts

thanks for the recommendation dave!! It was only a couple few questions as I've mainly gotten my trading down and only adding tma slope to compliment the way I trade.. I will go through the entire thread though

#10,847
Edited 4:34am May 21, 2012 4:04am | Edited 4:34am

Dyekid217
Joined Mar 2011 | Status: Pip Boy Wonder | 1,378 Posts

shorted AU and GU.. price failed to break yesterdays high on GU and MR1 on AU..

also divergence happening on both pairs.. both closed for TP at next support level

just shorted EJ with price hitting top 5 min TMA band.. near 30 min tma band.. and failing to break mr2 convincingly.. Divergence occuring as well..

Love the system already!!.. I admit with every other system I've traded they always got me into a trade late.. this allows me to clearly see the dips and rallies in a trend .. or see the bottom/top of the range!! and I've never been able to trade such a small range!!

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#10,848
May 21, 2012 5:32am May 21, 2012 5:32am

kennowski
| Joined Feb 2012 | Status: Trader | 12 Posts

Quoting Nes

Disliked

I think, I know what kind of problem "kennowski" have.. because I got the same..
It's all about catch turning point.. Like on pic I post, USD/CAD. PA is above 1H and 4H TMA, but slope is on buy ONLY(but it is falling).. Should I sell it or not? In my opinion it will pullback to the top of longterm consolidation from past (1.0050).. there is divergence on RSI and Trix.. and today is CPI data from Canada, it made some impact for sure..

Should I take notice more on TMAlines or on slope?

What pro traders think about it? And HOW do you determinate...

Ignored

Yes, youre correct.

Another thing, right now on E/U H1.

TMA Slope H4 is still on SELL ONLY (-0.52), but H1 is 0.21 and rising.
What if H4 will be in SELL ONLY when H1 will be on BUY ONLY? Then what? Where you sell or buy?

This is my point about the "0.25/-0.25" condition. On H1 it is OK 0.25/-0.25 to buy up or down only, but UNTIL H4 comes to an agreement, that will not be too late? You miss A LOT of good trades.

Al, I'm not question your system, but I think you change the slope value AFTER a ONE BIG market move, the Euro drop. The market will do a lot of "un pattern/not related with the system/system cannot predict" things in the future.

Or, by changing the slope value also on H4, this change will keep you "out of business" too long, missing also a lot of good trades, not just avoid bad ones.

You have much more experience than me with Slope. So, by your experience with slope, I'm wrong?

By me, I'll keep the buy/sell only 0.25/-0.25 rule just for H1, and H4 I keep the buy/sell only 0.50/-0.50.

#10,849
May 21, 2012 5:40am May 21, 2012 5:40am

Dyekid217
Joined Mar 2011 | Status: Pip Boy Wonder | 1,378 Posts

Quoting kennowski

Disliked

Yes, youre correct.

Another thing, right now on E/U H1.

TMA Slope H4 is still on SELL ONLY (-0.52), but H1 is 0.21 and rising.
What if H4 will be in SELL ONLY when H1 will be on BUY ONLY? Then what? Where you sell or buy?

This is my point about the "0.25/-0.25" condition. On H1 it is OK 0.25/-0.25 to buy up or down only, but UNTIL H4 comes to an agreement, that will not be too late? You miss A LOT of good trades.

Al, I'm not question your system, but I think you change the slope value AFTER a ONE BIG market move, the Euro drop. The...

Ignored

This is a good point as 1hr will always be ahead of 4hr.. which is why I trade 5m

I'll post my template soon.. I just trade from pivot to pivot and look for divergence on the tma slope.. I've been trading pivots successfully for some time but with the tma bands it will greatly reduce the amount of drawdown.

also.. EU 5m bands are starting to cross.. divergence on the slope and on the timing indi.. (stochastics)

since we're ranging I'm only targeting the next pivot but it's still enough for me at $3 a pip

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#10,850
May 21, 2012 5:52am May 21, 2012 5:52am

gtudor
| Joined Feb 2012 | Status: Trader | 236 Posts

Quoting Dyekid217

Disliked

This is a good point as 1hr will always be ahead of 4hr.. which is why I trade 5m

I'll post my template soon.. I just trade from pivot to pivot and look for divergence on the tma slope.. I've been trading pivots successfully for some time but with the tma bands it will greatly reduce the amount of drawdown.

also.. EU 5m bands are starting to cross.. divergence on the slope and on the timing indi.. (stochastics)

since we're ranging I'm only targeting the next pivot but it's still enough for me at $3 a pip

Ignored

And I am the same opinion.

#10,851
May 21, 2012 6:19am May 21, 2012 6:19am

kennowski
| Joined Feb 2012 | Status: Trader | 12 Posts

Quoting gtudor

Disliked

And I am the same opinion.

Ignored

And 1 minute will be always in front of M5. But this is not the problem I pointed.
I'm talking about the energy of a trend. Conservative part. When is the most good to think that is depleted in order to take orders in the oposite direction.

Edit: "mechanical" thinking.

#10,852
May 21, 2012 6:21am May 21, 2012 6:21am

Dyekid217
Joined Mar 2011 | Status: Pip Boy Wonder | 1,378 Posts

Quoting kennowski

Disliked

And 1 minute will be always in front of M5. But this is not the problem I pointed.
I'm talking about the energy of a trend. Conservative part. When is the most good to think that is depleted in order to take orders in the oposite direction.

Ignored

I would only counter trend trade when you know where the support/res is.. and where your target should be..

#10,853
May 21, 2012 6:21am May 21, 2012 6:21am

Alorente
Joined Aug 2011 | Status: Trader | 4,929 Posts

Quoting ycg198

Disliked

hi,Al:
i very like your system,and you help me lots.
what is your country?
i am Chinese.

Ignored

ello. I am from Spain.

Observation is the path to discovery.

#10,854
May 21, 2012 6:24am May 21, 2012 6:24am

Alorente
Joined Aug 2011 | Status: Trader | 4,929 Posts

Quoting tp0440

Disliked

See, this is one of the problems here. I know we are talking about different pairs here, but I like to see confluence between pairs. OK, JPY is here a complex issue due to possibility of intervntion if it falls to deep, but stilll. To elaborate:
- USDCAD is to fall, so weak US
- EURUSD is to raise, so weak US
- hopefully NZDUSD will raise, so again - weak USD
- And issue. USDJPY is to raise big time. So... strong USD.

In my eyes, something is wrong in this picture. Either USD strenght will continue (and USDJPY can go up soon) and then EURUSD gap...

Ignored

Usd is a Risk off pair like Jpy, but when risk off, Usd is usually weaker than Jpy.

Observation is the path to discovery.

#10,855
May 21, 2012 6:32am May 21, 2012 6:32am

Alorente
Joined Aug 2011 | Status: Trader | 4,929 Posts

Quoting allonso

Disliked

Hi Alorente,

Just found your interesting thread and there is a lot of reading to do to understand all the concepts.
Whilst I am wading through the post would it be possible to tell me what indicators you are displaying on your screen now, as there must have been quite a number of changes and I would like to follow what is happening as I read the posts.

Thank you
Allonso

Ignored

I use this template.

Attached File(s)

lorente large chart.tpl 37 KB | 467 downloads

Observation is the path to discovery.

#10,856
May 21, 2012 6:44am May 21, 2012 6:44am

Alorente
Joined Aug 2011 | Status: Trader | 4,929 Posts

Quoting kennowski

Disliked

Yes, youre correct.

Another thing, right now on E/U H1.

TMA Slope H4 is still on SELL ONLY (-0.52), but H1 is 0.21 and rising.
What if H4 will be in SELL ONLY when H1 will be on BUY ONLY? Then what? Where you sell or buy?

This is my point about the "0.25/-0.25" condition. On H1 it is OK 0.25/-0.25 to buy up or down only, but UNTIL H4 comes to an agreement, that will not be too late? You miss A LOT of good trades.

Al, I'm not question your system, but I think you change the slope value AFTER a ONE BIG market move, the Euro drop. The...

Ignored

Yes. You can adapt the system to your observations and yours is a good point. You will get a lot more good signals with the wider ranging zone. For ranging market periods, the wider zone is ideal. For trending markets, the smaller ranging one is safer.