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  • #10,721
  • May 19, 2012 7:54am May 19, 2012 7:54am
Quoting shomari
I don't know anything about all these "systems" people keep trying to peddle.
I DO know that REAL traders. UBS, CITI, etc are all taught what is called "swing trading" the market. Every last one of them. Either for profit or hedging for their customers.
Everyone in these forums seems to be searchig for some sort of, magic bullet, to somehow, conquer this beast, know as the forex market. It's so ridiculous. they don't want to put in the hard work and analysis it takes to make common sense trades.
Crazy elections in Europe = sell...
Well, as was proven in the study I showed you a few posts before, the majority of hedge funds are losing money / making less than the S&P 500 for their clients (and they are supposed to be led by master traders), that's why I don't care what big names they work for, cause apparently most of them have no clue how to make a profit in the long-term (again referencing the research paper). There are only a handful of "paul tudor jones's", "Richard Dennis's", etc. out there who consistently have made money over decades.
Anyways, as long as your system keeps making money, no matter if you swing trade, trade fundies, scalp, etc., that is all that matters.
Best thing is to just study the markets by oneself, get maybe some inputs from other traders, but always take everything they say with a grain of salt until you can verify that what they say is actually also working in reality.

No need for getting pissed off, I have my thoughts and you have yours. This is a forum for exchanging ideas. If everybody had the same thoughts, such a forum would be boring.
And I will be glad for reviewing your charts and look how I can incorporate that into my trading as well.

cheers.

(P.S.: and my system actually takes real live events into account on the most basic level, however I figured out a way to automate this without ever having to care what events actually took place)
  • #10,722
  • May 19, 2012 8:11am May 19, 2012 8:11am
Quoting Custos
Well, as was proven in the study I showed you a few posts before, the majority of hedge funds are losing money / making less than the S&P 500 for their clients (and they are supposed to be led by master traders), that's why I don't care what big names they work for, cause apparently most of them have no clue how to make a profit in the long-term (again referencing the research paper). There are only a handful of "paul tudor jones's", "Richard Dennis's", etc. out there who consistently have made money over decades.
Anyways, as long as your system...
Hedge funds, though, are usually specialized and boutique, and even though they lose, it's not due to only the forex side. There's plenty of market arbitrage and hedging ,utilizing various instruments. That'swhy they lose.
But... if you look at the brand name institutions and focus on their FOREIGN CURRENCY TRADING DESKS ALONE, you can easily see that they are not gambling with some "system", or robot. their traders swing trade, and do it successfully. Period. All around the world, from bankok, to Beijing, to Toronto, and Berlin.
Watch my charts,and here's proof. Notice how whenever price meets a red FIB Expansion level it bouces around there a bit? do you know why that is ? Because ALL the big banks trading desks are trading the exact same swing at the exact same time and guess what ? Taking out money at the EXACT same places. It's no secret !! Go Downtown in whatever city you are in, (hopefully a big one), go to wherever the banks traders go and eat dinner, and literaly, ask them. "How do you trade the foreign exchange markets ?" and they'll tel you.
I'm not pissed at ANYONE, I'm just pissed to see so many be misled, when really it's so simple, a monkey coud do it.
  • #10,723
  • May 19, 2012 8:16am May 19, 2012 8:16am
Quoting shomari
Hedge funds, though, are usually specialized and boutique, and even though they lose, it's not due to only the forex side. There's plenty of market arbitrage and hedging ,utilizing various instruments. That'swhy they lose.
But... if you look at the brand name institutions and focus on their FOREIGN CURRENCY TRADING DESKS ALONE, you can easily see that they are not gambling with some "system", or robot. their traders swing trade, and do it successfully. Period. All around the world, from bankok, to Beijing, to Toronto, and Berlin.
Watch...
as I said, if you found your niche that is great. It is always funny to see people attacking each other, when one says that they found a different way of trading successfully. You gotta calm down a bit. Be glad that not everybody is trading like you, otherwise that strategy would cease to make profits for you, if everybody is doing the same thing at the same time.
I for one have found a strategy that has worked over thousands of trades and will very likely work over the next thousands of trades, cause it exploits a psychological trait. You are right, proper trading is very simple, just takes a while to find out what works and what doesn't.
  • #10,724
  • May 19, 2012 8:42am May 19, 2012 8:42am
Quoting Custos
as I said, if you found your niche that is great. It is always funny to see people attacking each other, when one says that they found a different way of trading successfully. You gotta calm down a bit. Be glad that not everybody is trading like you, otherwise that strategy would cease to make profits for you, if everybody is doing the same thing at the same time.
I for one have found a strategy that has worked over thousands of trades and will very likely work over the next thousands of trades, cause it exploits a psychological trait. You are right,...

The more people doing the same thing at the same time, is EXACTLY why it "works".
In fact. Tradig the currency markets is EXACTLY where you want everyone trading the same. The more the merrier. GO PRICE GO !!
It's not like we are shoe salesmen and we don't want another shoe store around to compete with us.
The more people who see what you see, and trade when you trade it, it becomes a "self fulfilling prophecy", and price goes in that direction, cause everyone is pushing it.
Even George Soros, when he broke the Bank of Engand admitted that, it wasn't him alone that did it. But it was all the Big Reputable institutions trading "behind" him, that alowed the play to be successful. The CUMULATIVE POWER is what broke the bank of England. Not just Soros
This is a $4.2trillion dollar market a day. If all the institutional traders weren't trading the same way ,it would be chaos. People driving on the wrong side ofthe road, so to speak.
But the fact that they ALL do it the same way, keeps everything orderly, and smooth. Imagine if a few HUGE banks tried to get together and say short EUR/USD against all the others. They woud be crushed right? So they all trade the same.
Anyways...I'm rambling again.
Trade Life
  • #10,725
  • May 19, 2012 9:06am May 19, 2012 9:06am
Quoting shomari
The more people doing the same thing at the same time, is EXACTLY why it "works".
In fact. Tradig the currency markets is EXACTLY where you want everyone trading the same. The more the merrier. GO PRICE GO !!
It's not like we are shoe salesmen and we don't want another shoe store around to compete with us.
The more people who see what you see, and trade when you trade it, it becomes a "self fulfilling prophecy", and price goes in that direction, cause everyone is pushing it.
Even George Soros, when he broke the Bank of Engand...
well, if you are early on in and then the others join in, then of course you are right. And then if you are out before others go out, then of course you are right as well.
However, if everybody would know when you get in and do the same thing, you will have a hard time being in early on and a hard time getting out before the others get out, cause everybody will try to be in earlier than the rest of the pack. The edge would disappear.
So, in a sense you are right, if you have figured out a way to be in front of the pack in the market. Then all you want is that the others join in AFTER you already have positioned yourself. Guess what would happen / what happens if all insitutions really try to enter short at the same time. The market would crash. Who would take the other side of their orders? The market would drop like a stone without any trading going on until some of the instutions turn buyers. That is what generally happens in a fast market / news event.
Anyways, as well rambling. Yes you want others to join in, but after you, that is why it's not good if everybody is trading the same way as you.
  • #10,726
  • Edited 10:15am May 19, 2012 9:37am | Edited 10:15am
Quoting Custos
well, if you are early on in and then the others join in, then of course you are right. And then if you are out before others go out, then of course you are right as well.
However, if everybody would know when you get in and do the same thing, you will have a hard time being in early on and a hard time getting out before the others get out, cause everybody will try to be in earlier than the rest of the pack. The edge would disappear.
So, in a sense you are right, if you have figured out a way to be in front of the pack in the market. Then all you...
HEDGERS!!! ARE YOU KIDDING ME ?!!!!! SERIOUSLY? !!! DID YOU JUST REALLY ASK ME THAT ?!!! WOOOOOWWW!!!
Take a look at the weekly "COT Charts". THAT'S WHO TAKES THE OTHER SIDE!!
Istitutions speculate for profit, and the corporations hedge to maintain PPP (purchasing Price Parity).
Dude, Google "COT Charts and Forex Market" PLEEEEAAAASE.Take a look at the big traders and hedgers. We trade in the direction of the large speculators, hint , hint.
We are obviously on two completely different planets here.
HEdgers don't mind "losing", so to speak beacause their other currency holdings are moving in the OPPOSITE direction,maintaining PPP. Come on man. That's like, THE BEAUTY of forex, the hedgers are GIVING you their money. You just have to know how to go get it. The Big Institutions (and to an extent goverments) make sure the river runs smooth. Flow the way they flow, and you "win", are successful.
COT Charts
Bond analysis with real time prices
Real time commodity prices
etc... if you don't know about these, wow. 20% DOES now make complete sense to me.
Please read about COT Charts. The forex market is akin to a symbiotic relatioship rather than the more cutthroat equities markets, where there's always a sucker holding the bag.
In this market, certain entities (multinationals) aren't in it for profit. They simply do it to hedge. To protect their global currency holdings. PPP look it up in INVESTOPEDIA. Mutinational corporations engage in the same practice .
  • #10,727
  • Edited 11:08am May 19, 2012 10:13am | Edited 11:08am
Ayone reading this.
If you don't know about some of the things I spoke of in the above post, please go to www.babypips.com ,and get a good foundation of what the markets are, who the players are, and where you fit in.
There's no secret to this.
Then Get the Hector Trading course. it teaches you how to swing trade (among other things). The basics anyways.
BIG TIP: ALL BIG INSTITUTIONS USE FIBONACCI EXPANSIONS FOR PRICE TARGETS. IT'S THAT EASY. TAKE MONEY OUT AT EACH FIB EXPANSION LEVEL. IT'S NO SECRET. THIS ISN'T FREEMASONRY AFTER ALL. LOL.
Seriously though. Learn cross market correlations, and which currencies are "RISK ON" and "RISK OFF". Easy Comm Dolls = RISK ON,
JPY and USD (sometimes CHF) = RISK OFF. This is forex 101.
I'll be posting my trades from start to finish here and on Facebook.
Facebook#1: Jvip Mia
Facebook#2: Independent Forign Exchange Market Analyst/Trader
Search Facebook for either of the above. Hilarious video of a futures trader blowing his account. I'm LMFAO just thinking about it. Check it out.
I'm no teacher or anything, but if I can help point anyone in the right direction to become a successful trader I'm up for it.
I can also be reached at [email protected].
Please everyone..this takes more than a system.You have to read and watch the world constantly. It's not for everyone.

As always...Trade Life !!
  • #10,728
  • May 19, 2012 10:56am May 19, 2012 10:56am
Quoting shomari
HEDGERS!!! ARE YOU KIDDING ME ?!!!!! SERIOUSLY? !!! DID YOU JUST REALLY ASK ME THAT ?!!! WOOOOOWWW!!!
actually yes, I forgot about the hedgers in my equation. Thanks for reminding me. Well, possibly you are right with your arguments, have to think this through.

I am not sure how old you are, but I wrote to you respectfully my arguments and if you want a discussion then you should do the same as well. This is not a pissing contest, but a meaningful discussion.

If you can't engage in a normal discussion without the sarcasm in your posts, then you can discuss with somebody else.

By the way a in my opinion good but already inactive thread for swing trading and using fundies in the decision-making is this one: http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=216097

cheers
  • #10,729
  • May 19, 2012 11:43am May 19, 2012 11:43am
Good points and well made.

Quoting Custos
dangerous mindset, to compare each week. If you don't pay attention, you will go down the high win-loss ratio route that will ultimately deplete your account.
Let me give you a live example: I am up 100% this year since beginning of january. Where did the 100% come from? From the first two weeks of january, the rest of the year up till now it was a more or less zero-sum game. What does all this mean? If I compared each and every week I would soon not stick to my model anymore, but I know that I only win about 20% of the time and that most profits...
"The meek shall inherit the earth.." Yeah right, good luck with that shit..
  • #10,730
  • Edited 12:17pm May 19, 2012 11:51am | Edited 12:17pm
Quoting Custos
actually yes, I forgot about the hedgers in my equation. Thanks for reminding me. Well, possibly you are right with your arguments, have to think this through.

I am not sure how old you are, but I wrote to you respectfully my arguments and if you want a discussion then you should do the same as well. This is not a pissing contest, but a meaningful discussion.

If you can't engage in a normal discussion without the sarcasm in your posts, then you can discuss with somebody else.

By the way a in my opinion good but already inactive thread for...
I apologize sincerely for my harsh tone. Reading over these posts now I realize I could have taken a much different tone.
That being said, I'm glad to see we're back (kind of I hope), on the same page.
I know that the Hector course is not perfect, for instance he doesn't teach, or know, about using FIB expansions for price targets. or "walking the dog" moving your timeframs up, 1 by 1, from 15min to hourly etc. But, for the very basic fundamentals of trading like a professional (Yes, swing trading), it's the best thing to asking your friend for his training manuals from his employer. (Believe me I tried, very confidential stuff apperently).
This market thing is like anything, there's a right way, and a wrong way. Not only ONE way, but definately a right way to get things done, which is make profits. And if you can tap into, find out how "it's done", you're in. If I want to cook a nice roast, I ask a chef, if I want to fix my car, I ask a mechanic, it's the same thing in the forex market. When I wanted to learn I asked actual REAL traders. Showed them what I was looking at, and they showed me. Just like the mechanic. I may not own a fancy mechanic shop like him, but with the same tools, doing it the SAME way he does, guess what, I too can fix my car.
I don't have a fancy Bloomberg station like my friends, but thanks to the internet, I get the exact same news at th exact same time they do. Not only that but when you combine that with swing trading, in other words, real institutional trading, the same way that they do, you succeed.Because now you're trading WITH the flow of money. Riding a wave, so to speak.You're notjumping in BFORE the move starts, you're jumping in once it has begun AND gained mometum, to push you to the price targets.
Anyways...also, it's all about information. You trade information, the charts are just there to guide you when to jump in, or out. But you trade life, reality, the world. A bomb goes off in Spain, short the Euro, US empoyment numbers come in low, buy the dollar. Trade life, and, the way "life" is traded professionally, is Swing Trading.
  • #10,731
  • May 19, 2012 12:06pm May 19, 2012 12:06pm
Quoting shomari
I apologize sincerely for my harsh tone. Reading over these posts now I realize I could have taken a much different tone.
That being said, I'm glad to see we're back (kind of I hope), on the same page.
I know that the Hector course is not perfect, for instance he doesn't teach, or know, about using FIB expansions for price targets. or "walking the dog" moving your timeframs up, 1 by 1, from 15min to hourly etc. But, for the very basic fundamentals of trading like a professional (Yes, swing trading), it's the best thing to asking your...
obviously this is also a great way to trade, and from time to time I do also trade if I see a strong mismatch between fundies and where the chart currently is.
Actually my journey from manual trading to pure automation was based on my innate urge to wanting to quantify 1. if the system I use is profitable 2. how profitable it actually is and what to expect. Led me down to backtesting, and since the backtesting software could be used for automation purposes, I saw no reason why not to automate my whole trading and do other things during the day. Obviously it is a hard to backtest fundamental events, but I am already looking for a way to get stats on that. Ideally I would like to combine my current systems with the results I get from analyzing past fundamental events.
My ultimate aim is always to trade without a second thought and without any hesitation, that's why for the moment I rather prefer staying with systems of which I have seen the numbers and know what to expect and what is normal for the system. But in the future, if I can quantify fundies as well, then that will ultimately make me a more complete trader.

Anyways, still rambling....
  • #10,732
  • May 19, 2012 12:11pm May 19, 2012 12:11pm
Quoting Spreadbetter
Good points and well made.
It's not that you are COMPARING one week to another. What it is ,is that you are comparig the size of your account, from beginning of week to the end.
I think it should be obvious that to start your week with "x" amount of dollars, you want to end the week with "y", a HIGHER amount of dollars.
Unless you are trading long term trends most people are in and out of, and close a few trades, especially at the end of the week. You usually don't hold trades over the weekend, (price gaps, wars, stupid politicians saying stupid things etc). So naturally, a weekly analysis of your weekly performance is perfecty an acceptable metric and one that is used by any short to medium term currency trader.
  • #10,733
  • Edited 1:17pm May 19, 2012 12:45pm | Edited 1:17pm
Quoting Custos
obviously this is also a great way to trade, and from time to time I do also trade if I see a strong mismatch between fundies and where the chart currently is.
Actually my journey from manual trading to pure automation was based on my innate urge to wanting to quantify 1. if the system I use is profitable 2. how profitable it actually is and what to expect. Led me down to backtesting, and since the backtesting software could be used for automation purposes, I saw no reason why not to automate my whole trading and do other things during the day....
You're looking at theforeign exchange markets from what they call a "quants" view. (Look it up everyone, Google : quants and financial markets). Quants believe that somehow the markets can be boiled down to a type of equation, or algorhythm, if you will.
While good for few things other than 1950's to 1970's business cycles, this approach has all but been discrdited after the collapse of many hedgefunds that used a sort of, "academic" , approach to the markets. See: the following link for an interview from a "Quant" at D.E. Shaw after the financial collapse. http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/pages/frontl...s/cathy-oneil/ DISGUSTING !!
Now I see...how do you program a war? How do you program an election? How does your software know when a natural disaster occurs?YOU CAN'T !!
Face it. There's no silver bullet. No magic fairy dust. There's no Santa Claus to deliver you presents every day in the markets, based on some, secret formula, or magic mathematical algorhytm.
You have to get up EVERY DAY, read the newspapers, analyze the correlating markets (bonds, commodities, CDS (credit default swap movements) ) etc. Spend SCREEN TIME (lots of it), and be nimble with your trades. Only then, reacting in real time, to the information, can you be successful. It's damned hard work. And not for everyone.
Bottom line. If there was some, magic, pixie dust, algorhythm, no one would need traders anymore, and that's not going to happen anytime soon.

Trade Life!!
  • #10,734
  • May 19, 2012 1:02pm May 19, 2012 1:02pm
Quoting shomari
You're looking at thE markets from what they call a "quants" view. (Look it up everyone, Google : quants and financial markets). Quants believe that somehow the markets can be boiLed down to a type of equation, or algorhythm, if you will.
While good for few things other than 1950's to 1970's business cycles, this approach has all but been discrdited after the collapse of many hedgefunds that used a sort of, "academic" , approach to the markets. See: the following link for an interview from a "Quant" at D.E. Shaw after the financial collapse....
well, as I said, the systems I use are based on a psychological trait. Besides high school maths and statistics I don't know much maths, no real mathematical alogrithm in my systems. I just tested out different ideas and looked what works and what absolutely doesn't work. And in the end I looked why certain things work and built a theoretical foundation around that. Maybe my systems blow up in my face, but so far they are working within the parameters.
Obviously I don't wanna talk about how my systems work, cause a lot of research went into them, but market reactions are always lets say "similar", and that is what I exploit.
Well, best example for a pure systems trader was richard dennis. His system worked for decades before it stopped working.
But again, I think there are several approaches to the market that work. However it takes a lot of research to find them.
  • #10,735
  • May 19, 2012 2:11pm May 19, 2012 2:11pm
Quoting Custos
well, as I said, the systems I use are based on a psychological trait. Besides high school maths and statistics I don't know much maths, no real mathematical alogrithm in my systems. I just tested out different ideas and looked what works and what absolutely doesn't work. And in the end I looked why certain things work and built a theoretical foundation around that. Maybe my systems blow up in my face, but so far they are working within the parameters.
Obviously I don't wanna talk about how my systems work, cause a lot of research went into them,...
Hmmm... well, like we dscussed before, if your system actualy worked you would WANT people trading it, because you would have the power of the heard behind you, and your trades would be successful, way more, than 20% of the time.
Btter yet, sell it to some banks. They wouldn't need humans anymore. LOL. If something is REAL, it doesn't matter how many people "KNOW" about it, because you can't stop reality.
Easy to say, but unless I see some trades I'l stick with what actual finacia market participants do. Why reinvent the wheel. Ayways, enough for today. See you all at the beginning of the trading week.

Trade Life !!
  • #10,736
  • May 19, 2012 3:02pm May 19, 2012 3:02pm
Quoting shomari
Ayone reading this.
If you don't know about some of the things I spoke of in the above post, please go to www.babypips.com ,and get a good foundation of what the markets are, who the players are, and where you fit in.
There's no secret to this.
Then Get the Hector Trading course. it teaches you how to swing trade (among other things). The basics anyways.
BIG TIP: ALL BIG INSTITUTIONS USE FIBONACCI EXPANSIONS FOR PRICE TARGETS. IT'S THAT EASY. TAKE MONEY OUT AT EACH FIB EXPANSION LEVEL. IT'S NO SECRET. THIS...

and which currencies are "RISK ON" and "RISK OFF" .........what u mean by that??? i've never heard about this till now and i'm quite profitable at trading...can u please explayn this?
  • #10,737
  • May 19, 2012 5:13pm May 19, 2012 5:13pm
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/User:Rz...sk_on_Risk_off

When risk is off the USD generally strengthens due to the perception that It's a safer haven.


Quoting vladutz112
and which currencies are "RISK ON" and "RISK OFF" .........what u mean by that??? i've never heard about this till now and i'm quite profitable at trading...can u please explayn this?
"The meek shall inherit the earth.." Yeah right, good luck with that shit..
  • #10,738
  • May 19, 2012 8:04pm May 19, 2012 8:04pm
Quoting vladutz112
and which currencies are "RISK ON" and "RISK OFF" .........what u mean by that??? i've never heard about this till now and i'm quite profitable at trading...can u please explayn this?
Her's a pretty good article about RORO.
http://managed-futures-blog.attainca...99s-mr-miyagi/
  • #10,739
  • Edited 7:31pm May 20, 2012 12:31pm | Edited 7:31pm
http://www.dailymarkets.com/commitment-of-traders/

COT charts folks. These give you the, "sentiment", and "volume", for the foreex market.

Every serious trader must start their week by analyzing this report.
  • #10,740
  • May 20, 2012 12:46pm May 20, 2012 12:46pm
Quoting vladutz112
and which currencies are "RISK ON" and "RISK OFF" .........what u mean by that??? i've never heard about this till now and i'm quite profitable at trading...can u please explayn this?
Sorry, I guessI didn't really answer your question. RISK ON currencies would be any emerging market currency, and truthfully, the way the markets been behaving since the finacial crisis in US, anything other than JPY and USD.
RISK OFF obviously is USD and JPY.
They are RISK OFF meaning that they tend to strengthen whenevr people are afraid and want to put their monney in the safest innvestments, which happen to be US and Japanese treasuries. They are considered the safest investments on earth, and thus, when people get afraid they move their money from other "riskier" investments and tuck their money in US and Japanse bonds to protect their money.
The reason the YEN and USD rise when peope are scared, is because, in order to purchase US or Japanese bonds you have to do it in USD or JPY, the local currencies. This gives the dollar and yen strength because everyone has to buy dollars to get the US bonds, same goes with Japan. SInce yen and dolars are in demand, they go up.
So, if you look at the last two weeks after all the elections in Europe, the market got scared, A RISK OFF strategy began and dollars and yen have skyrocketed. Following US bond prices will also confirm this, yields have fallen dramatically. The COT charts also confirm an extreme RISK OFF environment, Especially in the EUR.
Look at last weeks COT charts. RECORD EUR SELLING !!!
Wel I hope that helped.
By the way a RISK ON scenario is when people start feeling good about the global economy and they convert their bonds to cash and go back into the markets in search of higher yielding, "riskier", investments.

Trade Life !!
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