Extreme TMA System

Yes, but I closed the short too early and I am long right now. EurUsd made two spinning tops on the last two days. It is extremely oversold. It won´t take more than a light Greek trigger to get it to 1.30 and test the broken trendline. Even possible to get to 1.3080 and close the gap.

It depends what percentage of your account is already invested. I am still showing over 300% margin level available right now. I don´t want it to get lower than that in case we drop a bit more. There is always a temptation to go for it and increase the position, but if it keeps going down you will be in trouble.

Thanks Al, I use the weekly to locate patterns then move in to Daily and correlate. The view is better less noise.
Thanks again, PC

This is getting very interesting. You mention that area, my one Broker shows a GAP at 1626, dead center in the area you just mentioned. I'm not sure if this Gap is true, or Broker info, etc but I find it curious and will look at some other sources. Do you see this Gap on your feed? Not sure how you calculated the Resistance, Weekly or Monthly? Haven't checked those yet, on Daily I currently see 1615 to 1630ish so I guess we are more or less seeing it the same. .786 FR is close to 1641, would fill the gap, and is not uncommon for a deep wave 2 FR. Most common is 61.8, 50 next.

So what's interesting about this, is the H&S Neckline is at 1600 and if price closes above it, technically the pattern is invalid. If, on a Daily basis, we go above the Neckline but then retreat back under it and leave a "wick" above the Neckline, I would for sure consider the H&S still valid. If we close above the NL Daily or Weekly, then I would presume the H&S void, but I can't remember the exact rule on this ATM.

If you look at my "WXY" EW count, I did some more interpretation and believe that this IS the correct count. With EW, it is always tricky the "degree" you are working with. We have 5 waves down from the Triangle, so I was inclined to think that "C" of "Y" and the whole correction was finished initially, could be still but it looks VERY unlikely now, here is an alternate count, which considers that C waves especially in the final move of a correction, are often VERY violent waves down and look and act like the their friend "wave 3"'s.

Alt count - The 5 waves down were only wave 1, of C, of Y. This move up is wave 2, an ABC which I can count perfectly off the bottom and agrees with my initial feeling and assessment that this is a fakeout and fake bottom to suck in longs. We will crash and burn in massive wave 3 of C down next, probably to 1300 - 1400 area. Wave 1 x 161.8% (most common FE for wave 3) = 233. Depending one where wave 2 ends, it brings us right down to 1400ish. Gap fill = 1408. 1600 - 233 = 1367. IF I am correct, then a corrective 4 followed by wave 5 down to the 1180ish target of H&S. One VERY interesting thing to note. I now think the WXY (which is probably just an ABC) is a wave 4 on the Weekly chart, and wouldn't you know where the previous wave 4 of the lesser degree is? Hmm, 1180, coincidence? I'm thinking no way. After 1180, Gold will explode to new highs. Just speculation.

Gold is currently close to 38.2 down from 1594, which is the most common wave 4 FR and a correction to the previous wave 4 of one lesser degree. Once it is confirmed complete, next will be the final move up to complete the whole ABC from the 1525 bottom and wave 2 up. However, as of 9:49am for all I know Gold topped already, wave 5 of C of 2 can truncate, so its tricky, but usually we would always make a new high to complete a count. One thing is for sure, it looks like "they" are starting to build short positions (VSA). Edit - 10:12am - I beleieve they are building an ending Diagonal Triangle for the final wave up of 2, and the gap if it is true, will not be filled for much much later, and will stay a "breakaway or runaway gap", for quite some time. This is going to complete VERY soon, maybe 1600 is the target (Neckline, most probable).

Hope you can follow all that, not sure how well you know Elliot Wave, and of course it would be easier to show with a chart (please see WXY chart in prior post). I studied it for many years, and follow it religiously, but just try to keep it as one tool in the box and not depend too much on it due to the always present alternate counts. When interpreted correctly and without bias, it is one of the most powerful tools available. VERY hard to master, however, and most people use it incorrectly which gives it it's somewhat "bad reputation", along with the masses not having any understanding of it and dismissing it as "predictions aren't possible".

Because of this new alternate count, I think the H&S is in play, and will stay valid. Regardless, I will be shorting the shit out of this thing in multiple accounts as soon as I think I see the top, and when it starts "impulsing" down.

Will try and keep you posted on what I see and how I interpret it.

Saludos Amigo y Buena Suerte

Many thanks for the reply.

how do i get the 2 indicators extreme spike and ma crossover

Dear Alorente,
I buy usdjpy near 79,20 am ı right? and do you have any advice? for usdjpy.
Thanks.
Bülent

Click on the Attachments at right top of page (it has a number 1269 in it)
That contains all indicators that have been on the system plus 1,268 others.

PS. We do not use either of those indicators anymore. Check page 1 and download Packet.zip - Also read the entire page 1 for much helpful information.

Hey Bassramy, how are you mate. Quick question do you mind telling me the name of the two indicators( Red and Green) you have on top that look like supertrend, but those entries seem extremely clean. Thanks in advance.

much thanks

I would step back from the cliff and wait for the bridge to appear or a throwback, IMHO.
PC,

Hello,
Thank you for your help,
Bülent

i had the new template but all i am seeing now is blue and green candles and the with line nothing else is there

Al, here is my newest long term interpretation with ALT count spec'd as well

As I noted on chart, Weekly makes the H&S target look wrong but I calculated it out on the Daily to 1181. (1919 - 1500 = 419 head size). 1600 - 419 = 1181

Has anyone noticed how accurate the TMA slope divergence can be ?

I have not paid attention to that lately, so any comments are appreciated.

Thanks.

Buy Only TMA (Above 0.25): Place ONLY Long trades. Sell Only TMA (Below -0.25): Place ONLY Short trades.

i dont know if i am thinking the opposite of this concept. above 0.25 wouldnt the candle be at the top of the band looking to short the market instead of buying and visversa.

It´s not an issue at this point. I closed the long on Gold for a very nice profit. I did not feel good about carrying it into the weekend, especially since it got so close to 1600. I will read through your long study tomorrow.

Here they are.

I bought twice today: 79.25 and 79.05.

It may require a little patience but I think this is going to be a big winner.

Extremely accurate. It is one of my must items to check before entering a position.