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  • #3,501
  • May 15, 2012 4:50pm May 15, 2012 4:50pm
Quoting sam0182
USD/CAD has broken out
Yes I've got my eye on that. So long as it can keep clear of the level for another hour or two, it is just begging to be bought on the retest of that level
  • #3,502
  • May 15, 2012 5:01pm May 15, 2012 5:01pm
Quoting fwloop
Hi Matt,

I had this marked on my chart too, what was / is your target? 143.69?
I was targeting the few bar highs and lows at 143.50.

Which means that I called it pretty much perfectly!

But (and yes, there had to be a "but") I didn't catch this move because I cancelled the order when it came within 1 point of my order, then bounced northwards three quarters of the way to my target. I figured I had missed the move. I didn't expect it to come back to my level two hours later, and then bounce straight back up to my target.

But there you go. You can't catch them all. Although I was gutted I missed it, I would do the same again.
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  • #3,503
  • May 16, 2012 1:49am May 16, 2012 1:49am
USDCHF did my arse, next possible trade on that pair, an SFP of 9594.

Looking at 9860 AUDUSD possible SFP, CAD got an order in @1.0052.
  • #3,504
  • May 16, 2012 3:28am May 16, 2012 3:28am
Here a set up on Eur/Aud i'll follow....break out+ pull back
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Patience is essential
  • #3,505
  • May 16, 2012 3:40am May 16, 2012 3:40am
Quoting BadgerMatt
I was targeting the few bar highs and lows at 143.50.

Which means that I called it pretty much perfectly!

But (and yes, there had to be a "but") I didn't catch this move because I cancelled the order when it came within 1 point of my order, then bounced northwards three quarters of the way to my target. I figured I had missed the move. I didn't expect it to come back to my level two hours later, and then bounce straight back up to my target.

But there you go. You can't catch them all. Although I was gutted I missed it, I would do...
Hey Badger, same here, I had my order in at 14303 and I cancelled when it didn't hit and bounced. My target was 14333. I wonder what entry level Tom would have taken? I thought I had chosen an average of the previous highs but wonder if I should have allowed more for the spread?
  • #3,506
  • May 16, 2012 4:11am May 16, 2012 4:11am
Also got an order there, let's see how it goes.
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  • #3,507
  • May 16, 2012 7:26am May 16, 2012 7:26am
Trade..
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  • #3,508
  • May 16, 2012 7:57am May 16, 2012 7:57am
its like good setup christmas out there today! too bad I didn't get home until 7:00 est. I did catch CAD at 1.0055 though
Support the Resistance
  • #3,509
  • May 16, 2012 8:36am May 16, 2012 8:36am
Quoting megel
its like good setup christmas out there today! too bad I didn't get home until 7:00 est. I did catch CAD at 1.0055 though
Nice CAD trade.

It doesn't get much better than this...no drawdown
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  • #3,510
  • May 16, 2012 12:07pm May 16, 2012 12:07pm
Anyone else get in the USDJPY sfp?
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  • #3,511
  • May 16, 2012 3:09pm May 16, 2012 3:09pm
I was...

"Entertained by the guy to my right explaining micro moves on a macro scale. I counter by drawing a single horizontal line. Silence ensues."



I know we're still a couple of days from the weekend but the G8 summit is this weekend...could again be some interesting gaps come Sunday.
  • #3,512
  • May 16, 2012 4:13pm May 16, 2012 4:13pm
For the second time in 24 hours, I have missed a beautiful trade by a pip or two.

I had my order to buy USD/CAD at 1.0053.

The positive part of my brain keeps telling me that is shows that I am now identifying great setups, it's just bad luck to have missed both this and the Bund trade this week.

The other part of my brain just wants to shout lots of swear words.
  • #3,513
  • May 16, 2012 4:39pm May 16, 2012 4:39pm
Quoting BadgerMatt
For the second time in 24 hours, I have missed a beautiful trade by a pip or two.

I had my order to buy USD/CAD at 1.0053.

The positive part of my brain keeps telling me that is shows that I am now identifying great setups, it's just bad luck to have missed both this and the Bund trade this week.

The other part of my brain just wants to shout lots of swear words.
With you there. Not sure why others would have had their order any higher than 1.0053 unless their charts showed different highs on the left. In fact 1.0051 is where I adjusted my order to as that is the high on the left.
  • #3,514
  • May 16, 2012 4:54pm May 16, 2012 4:54pm
Quoting ljr
With you there. Not sure why others would have had their order any higher than 1.0053 unless their charts showed different highs on the left. In fact 1.0051 is where I adjusted my order to as that is the high on the left.
Should you not be taking an average of the recent highs though to set your order? In this case, there were 4 recent highs made on H1 before the breakout at 58, 52, 53 and 62, so the average of this is 56 roughly, which is where I had my order originally. Only for me to pull it just before it was hit due to some poor US economic data announced just as the level was hit. What a fool I feel now! In hindsight, the slightly negative data was far outweighed by the amount of buy limit orders that must have been sitting at that level. Another lesson to be learnt.
  • #3,515
  • May 16, 2012 4:57pm May 16, 2012 4:57pm
Quoting nymeria
Anyone else get in the USDJPY sfp?
On my feed, the SFP high was exactly the same as the swing high so I didn't take the trade. I think Tom has stated in the past that the SFP high must exceed the swing high for it to be a valid SFP.
  • #3,516
  • May 16, 2012 5:02pm May 16, 2012 5:02pm
Quoting mazdaq100
Should you not be taking an average of the recent highs though to set your order? In this case, there were 4 recent highs made on H1 before the breakout at 58, 52, 53 and 62, so the average of this is 56 roughly, which is where I had my order originally. Only for me to pull it just before it was hit due to some poor US economic data announced just as the level was hit. What a fool I feel now! In hindsight, the slightly negative data was far outweighed by the amount of buy limit orders that must have been sitting at that level. Another lesson to...

I was taking a much longer term average, with a slight bias towards what had happened more recently. There were several 48s 49s and 50s earlier in the year. When I say I was taking an average, I don't mean literally counting all the highs and calculating it, I was estimating it by eye.
  • #3,517
  • May 16, 2012 5:08pm May 16, 2012 5:08pm
Quoting BadgerMatt
I was taking a much longer term average, with a slight bias towards what had happened more recently. There were several 48s 49s and 50s earlier in the year. When I say I was taking an average, I don't mean literally counting all the highs and calculating it, I was estimating it by eye.
Fair point Matt, I hadn't actually looked at the earlier highs, was just looking at the more recent ones.
  • #3,518
  • May 16, 2012 5:54pm May 16, 2012 5:54pm
Quoting BadgerMatt
I am now identifying great setups
This > everything else.

Keep it up.

These levels should be looked at as ranges, especially a strong daily level like this morning's USD/CAD.
  • #3,519
  • Edited 5:02am May 17, 2012 4:14am | Edited 5:02am
Quoting ljr
With you there. Not sure why others would have had their order any higher than 1.0053 unless their charts showed different highs on the left. In fact 1.0051 is where I adjusted my order to as that is the high on the left.
Levelplay can be done in so many ways

Edit: But anyway - itīs always a pain in the a.., if such a nice trade gets off with yourself standing beside
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  • #3,520
  • May 17, 2012 9:21am May 17, 2012 9:21am
Quoting mazdaq100
What a fool I feel now! In hindsight, the slightly negative data was far outweighed by the amount of buy limit orders that must have been sitting at that level. Another lesson to be learnt.
Is it the buy limit orders that we think are sitting there, or the long stops?
Support the Resistance
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