Analysis for Major Pairs with Charts (eur/usd,usd/jpy,usd/chf,gbp/usd..)

>> 5) Eur/Usd - 4 hours Chart - (15.05.2012)

Market Conditions:

 

1. Major Downtrend from May 2011,
2. Intermediate Downtrend from March 2012,
3. Minor Downtrend from 1st of May 2012, 470 Pips Sell-Off
4. Increasing Bearish Volume,
5. 2 Breakout Continuation Gaps (1.308, 1.291)

- Bullish Probability Key Levels:

 

1. 1.291 - the close from Friday and the continuation Gap from Monday opening,
2. 1.295 - weekly Main Pivot Point and the Resistence from 6th of May, (1st Level Key Level),
3. 1.300 - 1.303 area - confluence between the hystorical level and support from 16th of April and the Monthly S1 Pivot and the Weekly R1 Pivot, (2nd Level Key Level),
4. 1.308 - the close from 4th of May which formed a Breakout Continuation Gap maybe future confluence with the 100 SMA,
5. 1.313 - confluence between the Weekly R2 Pivot Point and the 200 SMA, (1st Level Key Level),
6. 1.318 - 1.320 area - Important confluence between the Monthly Main Pivot, the Weekly R3 1Pivot Point and the Intermediate Downtrend Trendline, (2nd Level Key Level),

- Bearish Probability Key Levels:

 

1. 1.285 - 1.282 area - confluence between the Weekly S1 Pivot and the Monthly S2 Pivot. (1st Level Key Level),
2. 1.276 - Weekly S2 Pivot Point,
3. 1.262 - 1.264 area - Important Demand area confluence between the Support from 15th of January, the Monthly S3 Pivot and the Weekly S3 Pivot Point.

Probability Charts:
Bullish and Bearish Clear Probabilities:http://www.dukascopy.com/imageserver...2/image495.jpg

Mixed Probabilities:


http://www.dukascopy.com/imageserver..._2/image73.jpg http://www.dukascopy.com/imageserver...2/image969.jpg


Thank You for your support,
Doctortyby

I do not use MT4 for this analysis. I use J-Forex Platform. The Key-Levels have to be obtained through the separate instruments combination:

 

1. Weekly Pivot Points (Main Pivot Point, S1, S2, S3 and R1, R2, R3),
2. Monthly Pivots (Main, S1, S2, S3 and R1, R2, R3),
3. Simple Moving Averages - SMA - 30, 50, 100 and 200,
4. Fibonacci Retracements,
5. Supports and Resistences / Supply and Demand areas,
6. Trendlines and Channel Trendlines
7. Volume Correlation.

You have to work very hard to obtain this Key-Levels. Please study each one before you start Trading based on this kind of an Analysis.


To your success,
Doctortyby

Thanks. But how do I plot the pivot or support and resistance levels or is there any special software for it.

I am also a little familiar with J-Forex platform from dukas.

How do I get these key levels or S/R.
I appreciate your help.

Greetings,

In J-forex Platform you have an indicator called "pivots" and you have to set it up for each period that you need for your analysis (Monthly, Daily, Weekly)

For MT4 you need an indicator called "Autopivotindicator". You can find it on FF forum if you search for it.

S/R you have to draw yourself on the chart. Supports and Resistences (Tops and Bottoms/ Swing highs or swing lows needed to identify a trend) from different periods, supply and demand areas, accumulation and distribution.

Hope this helps,
Doctortyby

To better understand a trend we have to start from the definition: The general direction of the market price for a certain trading instrument (currency pair, commodity, bond, stock).If we want to identify a trend we have to look at the charts and see if we can find some simple signs:

 

1. Higher Swing Lows and Higher Swing Highs for an Uptrend,
2. Lower Swing Lows and Lower Swing Highs for a Downtrend.

Trends Classification:

 

1. Major Trends (Primary Trends) - are ascending or descending trends, interrupted by corrections (Sell-offs in Uptrends and Rallies in Downtrends), last from several months to several years.
2. Intermediate Trends - can develop in the direction of the Major Trend or in the opposite direction (in this case it is considered a correction), last from several weeks to several months.
3. Minor Trends (Sell-Off or Rallies) - last from a few days to a few weeks.

More Minor Trends form an Intermediate Trend: swings of about 7 to 12 days in the direction of the Intermediate Trend with correction of 2 to 4 days. More Intermediate Trends form a Major Trend.
Trends Participants:

 

1. Intraday Traders (Short Term) - interested in Fluctuations of about 100 Pips, follow only the Minor Trends,
2. Speculators (Medium Term) - follow the Intermediate Trends, and try to enter the market both in the direction of the Major Trend and in the oppoiste direction.
3. Investors (Long Term) - Accumulate positions in the direction of the Major Trend, maintaining the positions in the Intermediate corrections. They often prottect their positions through hedging.

Trend Classification and participants are very important when you are following a trend to see if the Market Conditions (accumulation, distribution, supply, demand, volume correlation, different trend participants decisions) will change, if the trend will continue or there are signals for a trend reversal.


To your success,
Doctortyby


PS: Thank you for your support

Thanks for the help Doctortyby. I really appreciate.

1)Gbp/Usd - 4 hours Chart - (17.05.2012 Update) - Bullish Probability Key Levels:

>>1.611 -Monthly Pivot, Weekly Pivot, the Minor Trend Trendline,61.8% Fibonacci, (2nd Level Key Level)

>>1.616 - Weekly R1 Pivot 100 SMA,resistence from 2nd of May (2nd Level Key Level),

>>1.605 -200 SMA and resistence from the 3rd of April, (1st Level Key Level),

>>1.600 -Weekly S1 Pivot, the 38.2% Fibonacci and the hystorical level, (2nd Level Key Level),

>>1.597 -Weekly S2 Pivot and the resistence from the 13th of April and 27th of March (2nd Level Key Level),

>>1.592 - Monthly S1 Pivot and resistence from March,>>

1)Gbp/Usd - 4 hours Chart - (17.05.2012) - Bearish Probability Key Levels:

Price has broken 1.592 - 1.591 area (Monthly S1 Pivot and support from 19th,21st of March, 5th, 10th, 16th and 19th of April).

If the breakout will be confirmed we will see the minor sell-off continuation to reach first 1.587 - Weekly S3 Pivot, and finally 1.582 (support from March and 5th, 10th and 12th of April).

>>>Check out the Full explanation for the Key Levels and Probability Charts in the Articles Section,

Thank You for your support
Doctortyby

>> 2) Usd/Chf - 4 hours Chart - (17.05.2012 Update)>>- Bearish Probability Key Levels:

>>0.940 - Weekly R2 Pivot Point,

>>0.936 - Weekly R1 Pivot and the Monthly R2 Pivot, (1st Level Key Level).

>>0.927 - 0.928 - Support from the 6th of May and Weekly Main Pivot Point, (1st Level Key Level),

>>0.925 - Support from the 15th of April,

>>0.923 - 0.922 area -Monthly R1 Pivot, weekly S1 Pivot,the 100 SMA, (2nd Level Key Level),

>>0.915 - confluence between the 200 SMA and the Weekly S2 Pivot, (1st Level Key Level)>>>

>> 2) Usd/Chf - 4 hours Chart - (17.05.2012 Update)>>- Bullish Probability Key Levels:

Price has found resistence at 0.946 - 0.949 area (confluence between the Monthly R3 Pivot and the Weekly R3 Pivot).

If we will see a breakout and confirmation of this key level area price could reach 0.955 - 0.960 area (Major supply area from december 2011 and January 2012).

This would be a continuation of the minor rally from the beggining of May, without an important retracement.

Check out the Full explanation for the Key Levels and Probability Charts in the Articles Section.

Thank You for your support,
Doctortyby

>> 3) Usd/Jpy - 4 hours Chart - (17.05.2012 Update)>> - Bullish Probability Key Levels:

>>80.49 - Weekly R2 Pivot,

>>80.90 - 81.00 area - Key confluence between the 200 SMA, Weekly R3 Pivot, Monthly Main Pivot Point, 38.2% Fibonacci Retracement from the previous Intermediate Uptrend, (2nd Level Key Level)

>>81.80 - the Resistence from the 10th and 20th of April.

>> 3) Usd/Jpy - 4 hours Chart - (17.05.2012 Update)>>- Bearish Probability Key Levels:

>>80.30 - 80.40 area -Weekly R1 Pivot and the Support from the 16th of April, and from the 2nd and 3rd of May,100 SMA (2nd Level Key Level),

>>79.61 - 79.42 area - Major Demand Area, Weekly S1 Pivot, Supports from the 1st, 6th, 9th and 14th of May, (2nd Level Key Level)

>>79.19 - 79.15 area - Weekly S2 Pivot and the 61.8% Fibonacci from the previous Intermediate Uptrend, (1st Level Key Level)

>>78.96 - Weekly S3 Pivot.

>>> Check out the Full explanation for the Key Levels and Probability Charts in the Articles Section.

Thank You for your support,
Doctortyby

>> 4) Aud/Usd - 4 hours Chart - (17.05.2012 Update)>> - Bullish Probability Key Levels:

>>0.994 - 0.993 area -resistence from the 9th of August 2011, Weekly S1
Pivot,

>>1.002 - Psychological Level, the resistence from the 9th of May, Monthly S3 Pivot,(1st Level Key Level),

>>1.008 - Weekly Main Pivot Point,

>>1.013 - 1.016 area - resistences from the 7th and 10th of May, the Monthly S2 Pivot, the Weekly R1 Pivot, and the 61.8% Fibonacci from the
Sell-Off in May,(2nd Level Key Level)

>>1.020 - Resistence from the 8th of May, confluence with the 100 SMA,

>> 4) Aud/Usd - 4 hours Chart - (17.05.2012 Update)>> - Bearish Probability Key Levels:

>> Price has found support at 0.986 - 0.985 area (Weekly S2 Pivot and support from the 15th and 19th of December 2011) and retraced back to 0.995 (Weekly S1 Pivot).

If 0.985 will be broken and confirmed, we will see a continuation of the Minor sell-off from the 1st of may to reach first 0.973 (weekly S3 Pivot) and 0.966 (Major Support from the 25th of November).

>>>Check out the Full explanation for the Key Levels and Probability Charts in the Articles Section.

Thank You for your support,
Doctortyby

>> 5) Eur/Usd - 4 hours Chart - (17.05.2012 Update)>> Bearish
Probability Key Levels:

>>1.285 - 1.282 area -Weekly S1 Pivot and the Monthly S2 Pivot. (1st Level Key Level),

>>1.276 - Weekly S2 Pivot Point,

>>1.291 - the close from Friday and the continuation Gap from Monday opening,

>>1.295 - weekly Main Pivot and the Resistence from 6th of May, (1st
Level Key Level),

>>1.300 - 1.303 area -hystorical level and resistence from 16th of April, Monthly S1 Pivot, Weekly R1 Pivot, (2nd Level Key Level),

>>1.308 - the close for the Breakout Continuation Gap, future
confluence with the 100 SMA

>> 5) Eur/Usd - 4 hours Chart - (17.05.2012 Update)>> Bearish
Probability Key Levels:

>> Sideways Movement between>>1.276 - Weekly S2 Pivot Point
(Resistence),

>>1.262 - 1.264 area- Important Demand area confluence between the Support from 15th of January, the Monthly S3 Pivot and the Weekly S3 Pivot Point.(2nd Level Key LEvel).

We may see a breakout next week in this case.

>>Check out the Full explanation for the Key Levels and Probability Charts in the Articles Section.

Thank You for your support,
Doctortyby