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  • #141
  • May 15, 2012 7:00am May 15, 2012 7:00am
Quoting ash_k
hi HDA,
when u say eur/cad is predictible, what do u think we shud look in to predict ? the h4 time frame.and fundamentals ? right now its giving mixed signals....what do u reckon?
thanx alot
ASH
@ash_k:

To trade the EUR/CAD - you need only to focus on two Time Frames - The 4H and the 1D.

The 4H is used for entry and to make not of a change in direction.
The 1D is used for trend direction.

So the first thing you do is go to your daily chart and ascertain what the trend direction is - once you have done that then you go to the 4H to look for an entry to enter long or short depending on the direction of the daily.

Currently - the 1D is saying the trend direction is down, so you look to the 4H for sell opportunities.

On your 4H chart you will draw the support and resistance lines on the 4H and colour code those lines (BLUE) or whatever colour you like.

On the same 4H chart put also the 1D support and resistance lines on the chart and colour code those (YELLOW) or whatever colour you like.

The reason for colour coding the 4H differently from the 1D is so that if you only have 1 screen, you dont have to be switching between windows to look at the different TFs - Everything that you need to know will be on one chart for you to see at the sametime and also during high volatility we tend to get stuck looking at one TF and are unaware of what is happening on the larger TFs. So suddenly there may be a retrace and you are like - WTF only to not have seen that the market reached a 1D support or resistance point.

Having done that, at every 1D support and resistant point once the market gets there close your trade. On the EUR/CAD ALL 1D support and resistance points are respected. Thats why it is so predictable. So you know for a fact that you must exit, once it reaches the 1D support and resistance points.

Knowing this makes trading against the trend very very easy - once you reach a 1D support and resistance point close your trade and you can if you're greedy, close your trade and enter in the opposite direction for 20 to 40pips to be on the safe side.

It does not mean the trend direction has changed, you are just swing trading, that is buying support and selling resistance.

This is as clearly as I can explain its predictability, I hope I have managed to answer your question.

Respectfully,
HDA
  • #142
  • May 15, 2012 7:13am May 15, 2012 7:13am
Good morning everyone!!

HDA here is what happened last night. I started reading the book that you recommend and wanted to get through the first agreement. Well after really being into the first agreement chapter I violated it last night by not holding my word and trying your system last night. To be honest my wife got up with our son and I never heard her get up.

I have questions and will send a PM about it when I get time. I understand that you are busy and the last thing that I want to do is bog you down.

I want to teach Cullen as much as I can about trading hell starting our early is great. As I type I have cnbc in the back ground. I can only hope that he gets this stuff and will be successful. Like I said before a wise man told me a few years ago to sum lament my income anyway possible and thats exactly what Im trying to do. I dont want to get rich over night, I want to learn and earn money.

Thanks

Shawn

Quoting HDA
@Shawn3245:

In relation to the times - the rules were written for trading the EUR/USD using a 3H chart. In relation to time the rules would not work on the EUR/CAD - what works from the rules on the EUR/CAD is just what the rules state and not the times.

Dont let the fake rallies in the EUR/USD rattle your nerves - look for opportunities to sell the rallies. So you teaching...
  • #143
  • May 15, 2012 7:18am May 15, 2012 7:18am
Quoting mjl
@ HDA

thank you, yes you understood my question correctly - it is just that I do not fathom exactly how my broker does the leveraging when I trade anything else than having the USD in one of the legs. I do not care too much what I trade, risk management is my primary concern and I hate the kneejerk moves on the shorter timeframes.


@mjl:


Leverage, has nothing to do with any currency pair. Leverage is not about currency pairs. I guessing you are using the word leverage and thinking something else.


Regardless of what currency pair you trade, your leverage remains the same, unless you change it. Some brokers, may offer a specific leverage for a specific pair. But usually, once you choose your leverage, it remains the same for all currency pairs, unless otherwise stated my your broker.


So you have from 10:1, 20:1, 50:1, 100:1, 200:1, 500:1, 1000:1 etc etc


Most brokers that have Standard Accounts where you need minimum US$1,000 to place 1 Standard Lot trade would offer 1:100 leverage.


The reason why Oanda's spreads are so small or very competitve is that Oanda's highest leverage offered is 50:1 so there spread can go as low as 0.8 on the EUR/USD which is less than 1pip.


If Oanda had offered leverage of 100:1 then there spread would be wider and not 0.8 or 0.9 So the larger the leverage and the fixed lot size, the change in the size of the spread.

Remember, broker make there money off of the spread that they charge you to enter a trade.


Respectfully,
HDA
  • #144
  • May 15, 2012 7:29am May 15, 2012 7:29am
Quoting shawn3245
Good morning everyone!!

HDA here is what happened last night. I started reading the book that you recommend and wanted to get through the first agreement. Well after really being into the first agreement chapter I violated it last night by not holding my word and trying your system last night. To be honest my wife got up with our son and I never heard her get up.

I have questions and will send a PM about it when I get time. I understand that you are busy and the last thing that I want to do is bog you down.

I want to teach Cullen as much...
@Shawn3245:

I see you have started to read the book - very good - here is the audio version of the book

DOWNLOAD HERE!!
http://www.sgbeautymask.com/

You don't need to listen to CNBC, Bloomberg, Analysts etc etc - just learn to read the charts and overtime you will see that once you are reading the charts correctly, the news doesnt matter.

I'll prove it - The trend is down on the EUR/CAD - news is coming out in 2 mins at 8:30am EASTERN and regardless of the news - watch and see if the EUR/CAD still does go in its intend direction - DOWN - because the charts say down

Respectfully,
HDA
  • #145
  • May 15, 2012 7:32am May 15, 2012 7:32am
Quoting HDA
.....
The reason for colour coding the 4H differently from the 1D is so that if you only have 1 screen, you dont have to be switching between windows to look at the different TFs
....
http://www.musanim.com/miller1956/

The magical number seven (or how many variables can the human mind cope with at the same time)
With due respect to all (who might have a different viewpoint).
  • #146
  • May 15, 2012 7:44am May 15, 2012 7:44am
@Shawn3245:

Just Like I Said.

I still dont know what the news results were at 8:30am EASTERN, but the EUR/CAD is going in its intended direction just the same regardless of the news.

Now go back a few post and you will see what my TP for the EUR/CAD is and what I said said about how long it may take to get there. Its all boils down to reading the charts correctly and being patient.

Respectfully,
HDA
  • #147
  • May 15, 2012 8:11am May 15, 2012 8:11am
@Shawn3245:

News Came Out Again At 9:00am EASTERN

I dont know what the news was

As you can see, if you are patient enough, the market will continue in the direction it was intended as the charts had indicated, which is DOWN
We are refering to the EUR/CAD

Traders get so caught up in the spikes and hype that they no longer remember to listen to the charts and thats why they fail. Some never ever learnt to listen to the charts

What Im trying to teach you here in real time - with the news coming out, is that you dont have to listen to the news, just pay attention to the charts.

I hope you were observing this is real time or you would not have benefitted from anything im just typing to you now. You would appreciate what I am saying more, if you were actually watching it in real time as proof.

I hope you were watching. If not - you missed another convincing opportunity to learn a valid lesson.

Respectfully,
HDA
  • #148
  • May 15, 2012 8:12am May 15, 2012 8:12am
Quoting HDA
@mjl:
Leverage, has nothing to do with any currency pair. Leverage is not about currency pairs. I guessing you are using the word leverage and thinking something else.
I am aware of leverage and what it means - have been in this for quite some time however not trading other currency pairs outside the USD being a part of it.

However I have not completely fathomed how my broker is using the leverage and am doing more investigation.

If I trade 1:1 then there is no leverage. So when the trade starts the USD gets converted to the CAD and after the trade the CAD gets converted back to the USD. Therefor if the CAD moves against the USD during that period it has also to be taken into account. At the end of the whole exercise you are trading the EUR against the USD via the CAD.

Now lets make it more complicated: Let's say that I use conservatively 1:10 to trade the EUR.CAD. If the broker says "I first do the leverage and then the conversion to the currency you require" and then after the trade converts back and then reverts the leverage then I am in fact trading the EUR.CAD => CAD.USD. If on the other hand the broker first converts the margin and then does the leveraging then during the trade I have to take into account 1/10 of the move of the EUR against the USD.

Hope I am clear here.

IMHO at the end of the day I think it would be most prudent to change the base currency of my account to CAD or EUR if I am going to be trading the EUR.CAD. WHich one of the two it will be is the question of looking into tea leaves long term (or having a view on which you expect to stay more stable over time).

By the way - I have traded futures in the past, interest rate products, indexes and currencies. There this kind of things do not come up.

I see they tried earlier pretty hard to push the EUR up against the USD but it now has taken a tumble.
With due respect to all (who might have a different viewpoint).
  • #149
  • May 15, 2012 8:21am May 15, 2012 8:21am
Quoting mjl
I am aware of leverage and what it means - have been in this for quite some time however not trading other currency pairs outside the USD being a part of it.

However I have not completely fathomed how my broker is using the leverage and am doing more investigation.

If I trade 1:1 then there is no leverage. So when the trade starts the USD gets converted to the CAD and after the trade the CAD gets converted back to the USD. Therefor if the CAD moves against the USD during that period it has also to be taken into account. At the end of the whole...
@mjl:

Like I've been saying - dont buy the EUR, sell all the rallies on the EUR/USD. Those who cant hear - WILL FEEL - I thank them for my profits - I remain short on the EUR/USD to 1.2650 - you will soon here traders saying they are looking for longs.

As it relates to changing the base currency, it doesn't matter. You are getting to intricate with this. Just focus on what the pip value is and how many pips you made and you cant go wrong, regardless of what currency pair you traded.

Respectfully,
HDA
  • #150
  • May 15, 2012 8:27am May 15, 2012 8:27am
Yes I was watching while trying to get someone back to sleep!

This is why I really like your style, you have taken all the "noise" out of your trading! Another reason is that you arent very concerned about what is going to happen because you know the direction and stick with it. I think that those two things are really what has drawn me to learn as much as possible from you.

I went short last night on both pairs and havent really looked a lot either position until this morning. I scalped 15 pips this morning after reading your post about selling the rallies!

I have read every post that you have had in this thread and understand what you have said to this point.

One stupid/lazy question. When figuring out the resistance support levels do you use a website for this or do it manually? If manually can you give a brief explanation of how you do this?

Im looking forward to picking the book back up and reading the second agreement sometime today

Shawn

Quoting HDA
@Shawn3245:

News Came Out Again At 9:00am EASTERN

I dont know what the news was

As you can see, if you are patient enough, the market will continue in the direction it was intended as the charts had indicated, which is DOWN
We are refering to the EUR/CAD

Traders get so caught up in the spikes and hype that they no longer remember to listen to the charts and thats why they fail. Some never ever learnt to listen to the charts

What Im trying to teach...
  • #151
  • May 15, 2012 8:38am May 15, 2012 8:38am
Quoting HDA
@mjl:

Like I've been saying - dont buy the EUR...
Don't worry, have been short a substantial amount and am adding to it, this ain't over yet. (and have been short since 27/4)

And on the base currency subject: I am a perfectionist and pay a lot of attention to details and keep on working at something if it does not sit right with me....
With due respect to all (who might have a different viewpoint).
  • #152
  • May 15, 2012 8:47am May 15, 2012 8:47am
Quoting mjl
Don't worry, have been short a substantial amount and am adding to it, this ain't over yet. (and have been short since 27/4)

And on the base currency subject: I am a perfectionist and pay a lot of attention to details and keep on working at something if it does not sit right with me....
@mjl:

Understood

Respectfully,
HDA
  • #153
  • May 15, 2012 8:57am May 15, 2012 8:57am
Quoting HDA
@mjl:

Understood

Respectfully,
HDA
Your welcome. By the way this looks like it is a steam roller like last year September....
With due respect to all (who might have a different viewpoint).
  • #154
  • May 15, 2012 9:12am May 15, 2012 9:12am
Quoting mjl
Don't worry, have been short a substantial amount and am adding to it, this ain't over yet. (and have been short since 27/4)

And on the base currency subject: I am a perfectionist and pay a lot of attention to details and keep on working at something if it does not sit right with me....
@mjl:

Understood

Respectfully,
HDA
  • #155
  • May 15, 2012 9:59am May 15, 2012 9:59am
Here is a chart with all the resistance/support line that HDA was talking about if I have them correct. I got all the levels from the following website. http://www.actionforex.com/markets/p...2010040848154/

I hope that helps everyone. I will be studying this to see how to make this work!

Shawn
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurocad.gif Size: 76 KB
  • #156
  • May 15, 2012 10:10am May 15, 2012 10:10am
Quoting shawn3245
Yes I was watching while trying to get someone back to sleep!

This is why I really like your style, you have taken all the "noise" out of your trading! Another reason is that you arent very concerned about what is going to happen because you know the direction and stick with it. I think that those two things are really what has drawn me to learn as much as possible from you.

I went short last night on both pairs and havent really looked a lot either position until this morning. I scalped 15 pips this morning after reading your post about selling...
@Shawn3245:

I'll know if you are paying attention - what is my TP for the EUR/CAD?


and here is the Audio Book version of THE FOUR AGREEMENTS


DOWNLOAD HERE!!
http://www.sgbeautymask.com/


Respectfully,
HDA
  • #157
  • May 15, 2012 10:14am May 15, 2012 10:14am
Your TP for the eur/cad is 1.2770 and for eur/usd is 1.2650. As for the eusd your TP is higher then 1.2625 which I remember reading about.

I will download the book, thanks for the link

Shawn
  • #158
  • May 15, 2012 10:37am May 15, 2012 10:37am
Quoting shawn3245
Your TP for the eur/cad is 1.2770 and for eur/usd is 1.2650. As for the eusd your TP is higher then 1.2625 which I remember reading about.

I will download the book, thanks for the link

Shawn
@Shawn3245:

That TP is wrong.

Respectfully,
HDA
  • #159
  • May 15, 2012 10:43am May 15, 2012 10:43am
Quoting shawn3245
Your TP for the eur/cad is 1.2770 and for eur/usd is 1.2650. As for the eusd your TP is higher then 1.2625 which I remember reading about.

I will download the book, thanks for the link

Shawn
@Shawn3245:

No that TP is wrong - check again

Respectfully,
HDA
  • #160
  • May 15, 2012 10:54am May 15, 2012 10:54am
You started out with a TP of 1.2750 but then adjusted it to 1.27781. From looking at the chart that I posted earlier I believe that you TP is above the last 1D support line of 1.2762. My guess is that you want to exit before 1.2762 so there isnt a bounce higher?

So I was going back and trying to see exactly why you went short. and it seems like after you noticed the trend was down you went to the 4 hour chart and waited for the PA to go below the upper 1D support line before entering. Am I see this correctly?

Sorry about the wrong answer, I was going off the top of my head without going back into the thread.



Quoting HDA
@Shawn3245:

No that TP is wrong - check again

Respectfully,
HDA
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