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AUD/USD

  • #44,521
  • May 13, 2012 4:39pm May 13, 2012 4:39pm
i think the aussie $ is being messed around with, why? chinese...last week there were good numbers that showed bad numbers an vice versa, an in the weekend while they knew alot were short, they came out with that report that spiked an probably took a few stops...
  • #44,522
  • May 13, 2012 4:52pm May 13, 2012 4:52pm
Quoting Intrepid32
I suspect we will gap down on Sunday and then fall even further. Stops are all just below 1.0020, so they will gap it down lower and the stops will be triggered much lower than where they were set. That will trigger additional stops and margin calls on overleveraged accounts. Same for Euro as we will take out everyone below 1.29 and fall at least to 1.2860 area.
Playing out on Euro as suspected. China news kept the AUD afloat or it would have done the same.
  • #44,523
  • May 13, 2012 5:01pm May 13, 2012 5:01pm
last week wasnt there a report that said the asian sharks would stop supporting the euro? maybe they got their eyes on aud now?

jus a thought...

but it is looking very likely to drop tho from a technical view
  • #44,524
  • May 13, 2012 5:17pm May 13, 2012 5:17pm
Everyone getting ready to wave to parity on the way past ???

  • #44,525
  • May 13, 2012 5:25pm May 13, 2012 5:25pm
Quoting prive
Are you looking long or short? I suppose long...otherwise, you would be short already and surely not looking to take a short here?
Short of course, this thing still has more room down..
  • #44,526
  • May 13, 2012 5:29pm May 13, 2012 5:29pm
Just shorted 2 more lots @ 1.0013 s/l 1.0033 t/p 0.9983
  • #44,527
  • May 13, 2012 5:34pm May 13, 2012 5:34pm
Quoting MitchL
Just shorted 2 more lots @ 1.0013 s/l 1.0033 t/p 0.9983
Cheeky tp hehe

I set up a short of nzdusd at 0.7820 waiting for 40 pips
  • #44,528
  • May 13, 2012 5:38pm May 13, 2012 5:38pm
Quoting jayjb
Cheeky tp hehe

I set up a short of nzdusd at 0.7820 waiting for 40 pips

I am working on the simplest of theories

if my t/p is 2x my s/l i only need to be right 40% of the time to make some good profit

0.7820
was a nice short for the NZD .. you know there is news for it in 5 mins right ??
  • #44,529
  • May 13, 2012 5:41pm May 13, 2012 5:41pm
Quoting MitchL
I am working on the simplest of theories

if my t/p is 2x my s/l i only need to be right 40% of the time to make some good profit

0.7820
was a nice short for the NZD .. you know there is news for it in 5 mins right ??
Yes i had a pending short at 0.7850 but it was missed

Im hoping for bad news to short
  • #44,530
  • May 13, 2012 5:47pm May 13, 2012 5:47pm
Quoting jayjb
Yes i had a pending short at 0.7850 but it was missed

Im hoping for bad news to short

disaster numbers and the thing didn't drop .. makes me nervous bout all my aud shorts right now
  • #44,531
  • May 13, 2012 5:47pm May 13, 2012 5:47pm
More bad news for nzd
  • #44,532
  • May 13, 2012 5:52pm May 13, 2012 5:52pm
Quoting MitchL
disaster numbers and the thing didn't drop .. makes me nervous bout all my aud shorts right now
0.7810 was a double bottom, aud parity is a key support.. My charts suggest further downside, the china news only alleviated what would have been a massive drop.

Let's see if nzd can reach 0.7770

I'm kicking myself now, i had analysed that 0.7840 was a good place to short, but i changed to 0.7850 and now im left with nothing argh!!!
  • #44,533
  • May 13, 2012 5:52pm May 13, 2012 5:52pm
Quoting MitchL
disaster numbers and the thing didn't drop .. makes me nervous bout all my aud shorts right now
I think it will soon enough.
  • #44,534
  • May 13, 2012 6:56pm May 13, 2012 6:56pm
suppose im the only bull in here?

GL to me...and bears too
  • #44,535
  • May 13, 2012 6:58pm May 13, 2012 6:58pm
Quoting Noobicle
suppose im the only bull in here?

GL to me...and bears too
I'm a bull also, I really think the news on Greece not agreeing on a new government is not unexpected. But I'm only targeting 1.005, for now.
  • #44,536
  • May 13, 2012 7:03pm May 13, 2012 7:03pm
Quoting GTRudeBoy84
I'm a bull also, I really think the news on Greece not agreeing on a new government is not unexpected. But I'm only targeting 1.005, for now.
wouldnt it be a good thing for the euro if greece left, eventually? i see it as greece is economicly doing bad an that would cause the euro to drag down with it, if it left, eurozone will no longer need to hold greece's weight an would be a relief to the euro? whats your view on it?
  • #44,537
  • May 13, 2012 7:05pm May 13, 2012 7:05pm
Quoting Noobicle
wouldnt it be a good thing for the euro if greece left, eventually? i see it as greece is economicly doing bad an that would cause the euro to drag down with it, if it left, eurozone will no longer need to hold greece's weight an would be a relief to the euro? whats your view on it?
It would be over the long term. But I doubt that they will leave, or that they will be kicked out.
  • #44,538
  • May 13, 2012 7:10pm May 13, 2012 7:10pm
I think it will touch parity and maybe hover around the high .90s but will then bounce as there is bad news coming from everywhere else this week.

USD - It is slowing again, median house prices are the same today as they were 15 years ago.. Bloomberg
USD - Unemployment is rising again
USD - CPI forecast is 0.1% (down from 0.3%) see calendar

EUR - Greeks will leave EURO (my prediction, based on research)
EUR - France is heading for trouble

So if I had a cool million, where would it be safe right now?
Bonds... no
Property... no
Cash... yes but ...
AUD... long with swap to earn interest.

Yes this might be a very basic way to look at things but the AUD held its head high late last week staying above parity with all the bad news flying about.
A genius is born every minute, me I am lucky if my socks match.
  • #44,539
  • May 13, 2012 7:15pm May 13, 2012 7:15pm
Quoting Noobicle
suppose im the only bull in here?

GL to me...and bears too

lol right now my -50 pips says you are smarter than me noob
  • #44,540
  • May 13, 2012 7:15pm May 13, 2012 7:15pm
Quoting whackdiddy
So if I had a cool million, where would it be safe right now?
Bonds... no
Property... no
Cash... yes but ...
AUD... long with swap to earn interest.
me too with a stop at 40c, an then i wont have to trade ever again after i come back in a few months to collect
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