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  • #26,661
  • May 13, 2012 2:35am May 13, 2012 2:35am
And talking of equities, and the situation in Europe, this instrument, which I do not normally invlove myself with, provides an interesting picture.
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  • #26,662
  • May 13, 2012 3:15am May 13, 2012 3:15am
I have to maintain that in spite of all the doom and gloom, I am actually expecting a ranging, to rising week for EU… in no small part due to the almost guaranteed good sale of Italian and Spanish bonds next week. Yes, Greece is a major concern, but with political discussions about forming a coalition government likely to be dragged out, I cannot see much being resolved, and so I think the market will focus more on the bond sales.

It should also be remembered that Hollande will visit Merkel on Tuesday (whilst as posted previously, the following will occur: 15 May 2012 – Greek foreign law bond redemptions. (Yes, I have spoken a lot about this in the past, and so if it goes the way many an analyst expects, perhaps the retrace north that I am expecting will occur on Monday, ready for the big drop later in the week)), and so I would not be surprised to see EU range for several hours within a ten-pip range whilst the world awaits news of this, the very first meeting between these two individuals. And, and I don’t want to stoke any animosities here, it is hard for any mind to disassociate itself from the early programming of formation - Merkel is an East German physicist of ruthless design and ambition that has cut links to anyone that has not helped her cause for power as she emerged from soviet breeding, whilst Hollande is a Jewish intellectual of very privileged background and from a family that has had dire exposure to the ramifications of fascism that have spread across Europe in the not too distant past.

One wonders if the two will hug upon the first meeting – which would, given the impulses of the markets these days, pump EU up 200 pips in the space of one tick.
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  • #26,663
  • May 13, 2012 3:55am May 13, 2012 3:55am
Hello,

after reading news about market and A couple of hour b4 market Opening :

All in this muzik : "Think Twice" by RALPH MYERZ

Inserted Video


See you at opening.

BBQ time now. Beers are waiting in the fridge.
  • #26,664
  • May 13, 2012 6:15am May 13, 2012 6:15am
Quoting 45Condor
I have to maintain that in spite of all the doom and gloom, I am actually expecting a ranging, to rising week for EU… in no small part due to the almost guaranteed good sale of Italian and Spanish bonds next week. Yes, Greece is a major concern, but with political discussions about forming a coalition government likely to be dragged out, I cannot see much being resolved, and so I think the market will focus more on the bond sales.

It should also be remembered that Hollande will visit Merkel on Tuesday (whilst as posted previously, the following...
Good read!
All that is left in FF is just plain garbage. "Cloggie"
  • #26,665
  • May 13, 2012 7:35am May 13, 2012 7:35am
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  • #26,666
  • May 13, 2012 8:17am May 13, 2012 8:17am
[quote=45Condor;5661979]I have to maintain that in spite of all the doom and gloom, I am actually expecting a ranging, to rising week for EU… in no small part due to the almost guaranteed good sale of Italian and Spanish bonds next week. Yes, Greece is a major concern, but with political discussions about forming a coalition government likely to be dragged out, I cannot see much being resolved, and so I think the market will focus more on the bond sales.

Yeah Good and interesting read... A question.. In your opnion..does the DAX lead the Euro??Excuse my ignorance..
  • #26,667
  • May 13, 2012 8:32am May 13, 2012 8:32am
sorry to jump in here on your Q, four five.........for what it is worth danc i trade the european equity indexes and the Spanish and Italian indexes looked bouncy at the end of last week. also the DAX is trading close to major support around 6500 so if Condor's take is correct over the bond auctions (read ECB steps up to buy and bring yield down), and the Ger/french political posturing comes off then i like long for in/out/hit/run trades.......just mo but unless the S&P can break below 1345 then i think that is a floor until there is a defininative NO from the Fed for more stimulus.

Quote
45Condor;5661979......I have to maintain that in spite of all the doom and gloom, I am actually expecting a ranging, to rising week for EU… in no small part due to the almost guaranteed good sale of Italian and Spanish bonds next week. Yes, Greece is a major concern, but with political discussions about forming a coalition government likely to be dragged out, I cannot see much being resolved, and so I think the market will focus more on the bond sales.
Quote
Original post danc........Yeah Good and interesting read... A question.. In your opnion..does the DAX lead the Euro??Excuse my ignorance..
China cut its RR rate yesterday too so another positive for a reflation and more stimulus.....one other thought on the subject; if the overall political tone improves supported by smooth bond auctions i may keep a lookout for some Euro short covering just as Condor has already pointed out.
  • #26,668
  • May 13, 2012 9:01am May 13, 2012 9:01am
[quote=danc;5662198]
Quoting 45Condor
A question.. In your opnion..does the DAX lead the Euro??Excuse my ignorance..
Quoting roro53
sorry to jump in here on your Q, four five
You are more than welcome Roro53 - you are more into the indices than me.

Danc, for what it is worth, here is my answer, but please note, I am in no way an expert when it come to indices.

Hey, we're all ignorant (not meant in anyway to be offensive - should have said we all like improve our understanding of market behaviour), and come here to share ideas and learn from each other.

In answer to your question; Yuck, what an awful question. With the DAX being one of several quite important bourses within Europe, each of which has its own troubles and foibles that affect the Euro, I think its ability to lead the Euro is limited. Sure, when good economic news emanates from Germany, the little rallies occur in the Euro as investors need to get their hands on some Euros in order to take advantage of German production, but I often feel that this is short-term speculation and settlement that is quickly dragged down by the weight that the Euro exerts upon the member states of the common currency. I think that the only true leader for the Euro – and which we as retailers are not privy to – is ECB machinations.

If it is your intention to trade the Euro based on member statess bourses, I’d be following the CAC… a better correlation – whilst keeping an eye on what is happening on EJ in relation to the S&P and EU. My earlier posts regarding the S&P and EJ were meant to point to a potential reversal in each instrument’s direction, based on correlation as seen on a weekly chart, if Merkel and Hollande don't swap tongues as they kiss... that's assuming these two wooden stooges know what a kiss is.

Right, time for a glass of Rose and some spit swapping with the wife... hang on, where is she, oh yes, she's out competing on the horse today. Oh well, there's always the cat...
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  • #26,669
  • May 13, 2012 11:55am May 13, 2012 11:55am
Not that surprised: no agreement on Greek coalition government. Next week should be interesting.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/f...lks-stall.html

and this is good reading to get the blood pump and primed for next week.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/if-gre...e-what-happens
Author of: For Pip's Sake! (Available at Amazon... :-) )
  • #26,670
  • Edited 4:00pm May 13, 2012 12:35pm | Edited 4:00pm
Quoting 45Condor
Not that surprised: no agreement on Greek coalition government. Next week should be interesting.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/f...lks-stall.html

and this is good reading to get the blood pump and primed for next week.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/if-gre...e-what-happens

.............awesome read, great posts from all here, but great post four five on the
DAX correlation analisis for Danc, all tho not an expert on the subject, it could fool me.........

..............."HAPPY MOTHERS DAY FOR THE AMERICAN WIFES"........

I'm taking my wife out to eat today, so let me clean the yard and the BarBeCue......
The Chonchy
  • #26,671
  • May 13, 2012 6:51pm May 13, 2012 6:51pm
Roro.. and Condor... Thanks for insights and answers both..Good Stuff.....Point taken re CAC correllation.. with Eu..Peace.....
  • #26,672
  • May 14, 2012 1:27am May 14, 2012 1:27am
GM All

My view on Cable H1.

Possible long setup with low risk.
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  • #26,673
  • May 14, 2012 1:29am May 14, 2012 1:29am
Quoting chonchy
........The last time I saw this charts in sinc like this, it end up in 1.1875, a friend of mine told me last night that this time they know we are specting a fall, so they probably go up, but then again, if you are specting that I'm specting that you are going to go up, then...........

monthly is starting to cross moving averages to be compleatly down......

......Only aqua left to cross..........

Attachment

.........Weekly is down with all moving averages cross for the down even red cross magenta, big deal........

Attachment ...
......bothom what bothom, this thing dosn't have a bothom, it lost the bothom......
The Chonchy
  • #26,674
  • May 14, 2012 1:32am May 14, 2012 1:32am
Quoting dswk
GM All

My view on Cable H1.

Possible long setup with low risk.
.....Nice chart dswk, that may happens and if cable turns maybe yurow will follow, but I see this thing down man, with no pull back on site.....lets see how she rolls.....
The Chonchy
  • #26,675
  • May 14, 2012 1:39am May 14, 2012 1:39am
Good morning Gentlemen,

Having a slow start today, and decided to delay by an hour or so my departure to Brussels in order for me to watch London open.

I'm a little apprehensive about positions to take this morning, and will see what happens in the first hour or so of London. Will most likely place orders and hit the road.

Currently watching for any pull back to the 23.6 FE on a 4hr EU, and bounce off the standard green 61.8 fib for Cable. EG... hmm, will now probably wait to see if the 100 FE is broken, and try to get in short on any retrace that confirms the 100 FE as resistance
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  • #26,676
  • Edited 4:54am May 14, 2012 3:37am | Edited 4:54am
Fellow Traders ....

Happyness is coming ... Soon

I know i'm test the devil doing this but ...

EuroDol H4 : (need to wait now for the next H4 candle to validate ... But ... )

Gartley Bullish in formation.
How i deal with this ? I'm always wait the first candle who is "detach" from the pattern before to take position. My stops are at the bottom of the cube. On H4 i always enter by steps. ie : I want 50 contracts on this full trade, i put first 5 or 10 contracts and re put after candles confirmation. (so each 4H).
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  • #26,677
  • May 14, 2012 7:36am May 14, 2012 7:36am
Quoting dswk
Fellow Traders ....

Happyness is coming ... Soon

I know i'm test the devil doing this but ...

EuroDol H4 : (need to wait now for the next H4 candle to validate ... But ... )

Gartley Bullish in formation.
[i][size="1"]How i deal with this ? I'm always wait the first candle who is "detach" from the pattern before to take position. My stops are at the bottom of the cube. On H4 i always enter by steps. ie : I want 50 contracts on this full trade, i put first 5 or 10...

THIS Setup is now over as the gartley is no more present. Still stay the Cable Trade.
  • #26,678
  • May 14, 2012 10:21am May 14, 2012 10:21am
cable evolution...

SL@BE NOW .. will see
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  • #26,679
  • May 14, 2012 11:03am May 14, 2012 11:03am
Luv it ...


And the music to this :
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  • #26,680
  • May 14, 2012 11:57am May 14, 2012 11:57am
Arrived in hotel and see that order was hit. Closed for 35 pips just now as I am not sure if those bastards down the road from here will manage to pull a surprise hat out of the bag, and the pin formed on the hourly just past is a touch worrying... also feel that Cable is oversold, and so closed a little long on that as well for 30... hey, had to take a chance after this morning's push, and the weekend discussion here regarding indices, and my opinion that banking stock on the FTSE would take a hit as money ran for cover a little whilst the Greeks decided if they want to pull the European banking sector down.

Now awaiting news from the criminals, and also deciding if a pull back up that 100 FE is on. I do think 0.77 is on in the next few months, and will be shorting a little heavier if I get the pullback that I want to see.

Not big pip counts, but every little helps.

...and DSWK, please can leave my broker alone!

EDIT:I am not alone in my thoughts, it seems. http://www.efxnews.com/story/12565/b...urgbp-position
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