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AUD/USD

  • #44,381
  • May 11, 2012 10:34am May 11, 2012 10:34am
Quoting geniusztc
peace. you are right .i have said ,it is risky .
The only thing you get from picking bottoms is smelly fingers
  • #44,382
  • May 11, 2012 10:35am May 11, 2012 10:35am
Looks like this damn thing doesn't want to head down today.
Nice bounce in US equities off the Consumer Confidence report.
Looking for this thing to cap at around 1.0080 (50 Fib).
  • #44,383
  • May 11, 2012 10:56am May 11, 2012 10:56am
the safest heaven "buy" is at 9950-60 area. the daily trend from 1.0455 didn't change yet. very important resistance at 1.0085-90.
  • #44,384
  • May 11, 2012 11:42am May 11, 2012 11:42am
Quoting cher
the safest heaven "buy" is at 9950-60 area. the daily trend from 1.0455 didn't change yet. very important resistance at 1.0085-90.
Yep. There is some pretty strong resistance between 1.0080 and 1.0095.
Support at 1.0056 is holding it in a range atm. I'm scalping until we get a breakout out of 1.0056-1.0080. I'm looking to sell above or below the range. Still have my original position at 1.0104.
  • #44,385
  • May 11, 2012 12:16pm May 11, 2012 12:16pm
Oil just fell to where it was before spike. there is some correlation
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  • #44,386
  • May 11, 2012 12:26pm May 11, 2012 12:26pm
And AUD followed...
  • #44,387
  • May 11, 2012 12:39pm May 11, 2012 12:39pm
Quoting equahrefgam
Mitchl hope u did close your trade at profit. at a consecutive selling time at lower boiler band of longer timeframe. its hard to reach parity. i will short at higher resistance.
closed trades then opened more.. then had a pretty big short at 0050 stopped out at 0075 was targetting 0.9980

short again at 0060 s/l 0090 still looking for 0.9980

will close before weekend though
  • #44,388
  • May 11, 2012 12:40pm May 11, 2012 12:40pm
If this is going to break this half of spike or 1.0046 we definitely gonna see 1.0020 again
  • #44,389
  • May 11, 2012 12:45pm May 11, 2012 12:45pm
Huh? I thought AUD/USD was correlated to gold while USD/CAD was correlated to oil.

With gold being correlated to oil only over a large time frame while having little to no correlation on short time frames.
  • #44,390
  • May 11, 2012 12:49pm May 11, 2012 12:49pm
Quoting Esssex
Huh? I thought AUD/USD was correlated to gold while USD/CAD was correlated to oil.

With gold being correlated to oil only over a large time frame while having little to no correlation on short time frames.
I don't know men, that was indexes show me (Oil, CRB commodity index, Stocks...). You have to watch the whole market. Not the only AUD by itself
  • #44,391
  • May 11, 2012 1:01pm May 11, 2012 1:01pm
Quoting Esssex
Huh? I thought AUD/USD was correlated to gold while USD/CAD was correlated to oil.

With gold being correlated to oil only over a large time frame while having little to no correlation on short time frames.
When prices are are rising or falling due to inflation/deflation, oil and gold show pretty close correlation. Same goes for the Aussie and Loonie. When other factors are determining market direction (ex. positive CAD employment data today), the correlation loosens. Other factors that lessen the Aussie/Loonie correlation are Middle East unrest (oil supply issues), Chinese economic conditions, Aussie/Loonie Interest Rate speculation and market panic (gold outperforms oil= Aussie outperforms Loonie).
  • #44,392
  • May 11, 2012 1:04pm May 11, 2012 1:04pm
A lot of traders was fooled by today spike, they didn't see a very strong trend.
  • #44,393
  • May 11, 2012 1:04pm May 11, 2012 1:04pm
Quoting Hookem28
When prices are are rising or falling due to inflation/deflation, oil and gold show pretty close correlation. Same goes for the Aussie and Loonie. When other factors are determining market direction (ex. positive CAD employment data today), the correlation loosens. Other factors that lessen the Aussie/Loonie correlation are Middle East unrest (oil supply issues), Chinese economic conditions, Aussie/Loonie Interest Rate speculation and market panic (gold outperforms oil= Aussie outperforms Loonie).
Ahhh right. I get it now, haven't considered the effects of positive data.

Any chance of a fight for parity by the end of this weekend? Or a rebound from 0020?
  • #44,394
  • May 11, 2012 1:08pm May 11, 2012 1:08pm
here we come to 1.0020
  • #44,395
  • May 11, 2012 1:10pm May 11, 2012 1:10pm
Quoting cher
here we come to 1.0020
Indeed, I don't know if I should bet on parity or a rebound. Atm just manually monitoring.
  • #44,396
  • May 11, 2012 1:14pm May 11, 2012 1:14pm
Quoting Esssex
Indeed, I don't know if I should bet on parity or a rebound. Atm just manually monitoring.
I wouldn't sell at this level. We had three bounces already off 1.0020 and I expect some shorts will cover before the weekend at this price. If it does break through, I expect to see .9950 on Monday.
  • #44,397
  • May 11, 2012 1:15pm May 11, 2012 1:15pm
Quoting Esssex
Indeed, I don't know if I should bet on parity or a rebound. Atm just manually monitoring.
I suspect it is not gonna hold, it is 4th attempt to break this level. Sunday/Monday you gonna wake up with a gap below 1.0020
  • #44,398
  • May 11, 2012 1:24pm May 11, 2012 1:24pm
Quoting cher
I suspect it is not gonna hold, it is 4th attempt to break this level. Sunday/Monday you gonna wake up with a gap below 1.0020

are you confident enough to hold over the weekend on that ?
  • #44,399
  • May 11, 2012 1:27pm May 11, 2012 1:27pm
Quoting cher
I suspect it is not gonna hold, it is 4th attempt to break this level. Sunday/Monday you gonna wake up with a gap below 1.0020
I hope you are right.
Essex, the reason most retail traders lose is because they either rush into trades (fearful they will miss it), or they try to outsmart the market by picking bottoms. Don't be one of these guys.
If you draw your support/resistance lines, and wait patiently on pullbacks until it rejects those price levels, this pair is EASY right now.
It's going to have to form some strong pattern on the 4-Hour chart for me to consider a long, and that could take days to develop.
Have a great weekend everyone!
  • #44,400
  • May 11, 2012 1:27pm May 11, 2012 1:27pm
Quoting MitchL
are you confident enough to hold over the weekend on that ?
there is no worry, i have sell positions from 1.0300, then 1.0100 and there is a strong trend, i am waiting for final bottom of this trend at 9950
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