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Extreme TMA System

  • #10,561
  • May 11, 2012 7:17am May 11, 2012 7:17am
THE WORLD IS WATCHING AND ANALYZING THE SAME CHARTS LIKE US, AND THESE ARE THE EXPERTS ( Pros) WHO MAKE THERE LIVING FROM IT. http://www.dailyforextradingedge.com...URUSD-Analysis http://www.dailyforextradingedge.com/node/721
Master Your Setup, Master Your self. (NQoos)
  • #10,562
  • May 11, 2012 7:22am May 11, 2012 7:22am
Quoting tomthepoppop
I agree totally that the simple changes made will greatly benefit us...
Thanks for the kind words, Tom! You have quite a bit of eloquence yourself, old friend!
The mind thinks, the heart knows...
  • #10,563
  • May 11, 2012 7:27am May 11, 2012 7:27am
Quoting tomthepoppop
Good one. Way to go. From now on I won't just look at the chart posted on the thread but will expand it on my own system. I really missed that one.
You are the Man!

Tom
Thanks Tom. The trade seemed viable and I gave my reasons for that. It seems I pulled out early, but I had hit my target.

Regards
Aj1
  • #10,564
  • Edited 8:57am May 11, 2012 8:34am | Edited 8:57am
Hi Al,

i believe there are 2 factors which are crucial in the system you have fantastically developed in this thread, and which need to by highlighted.

The first one is the general trend and/or fundamentals: you are very good and experienced to evaluate the sentiment of the market (i.e. do not long euro and do not short usd a few weeks ago). To one extreme, if you are able to get the right sentiment, you can enter anytime anywhere and be profitable, regardless the TMA or any other indicator. Especially if you allow large stoploss (or none).

The second consists on reducing your losses; again, you could enter by dropping a coin, and be ready to exit as soon as you feel unconfortable.

Just to underline the importance of those 2 aspects: if I were able to master them I wouldn't need any specific technical system, but I could enter the market blindly and be very profitable. And for new traders, they cannot rely on a pure mechanical system but they need to develop their sense of the market and apply their sensitivity to their trades (being the most difficult part!).

I hope you could help us on those 2 points!

Thanks a lot as usual!!!!!

Puma
  • #10,565
  • May 11, 2012 9:35am May 11, 2012 9:35am
Hello Al and All. I am thinking of buying GBP/CHF here and have a question for AL or any veteran of the system here that hopefully someone can answer asap. Friday noon EST is probably a bad time to enter a trade but besides that.

I haven't read fully quite everything yet but the one question I have is, this pair looks to be a screaming buy on M1, M5, M15, and M30 and very close on H1.

When you look at H4 and D1, you can see it is probably just ripe for a short.

So in a sense, you have a conflicting signal. This isn't much different than with any other system, I just want to know how AL and anyone else would handle this with this system on each.

I think I know how someone will answer, but since I haven't traded using TMA I would rather hear from those who have. It would seem you could buy it safely on those lower TF's M30 and down. But do you buy it based it H1 now, when H4 and D1 say we are going down? Do you short it on H4, if all the other's say up? (Not sure if anyone is really trading H4 or D1, but you see what I am getting at)

Thanks very much in advance, have a great weekend all
  • #10,566
  • Edited 9:39am May 11, 2012 9:36am | Edited 9:39am
Quoting bassramy
THE WORLD IS WATCHING AND ANALYZING THE SAME CHARTS LIKE US, AND THESE ARE THE EXPERTS ( Pros) WHO MAKE THERE LIVING FROM IT. http://www.dailyforextradingedge.com...URUSD-Analysis http://www.dailyforextradingedge.com/node/721
Would those experts you're talking about be the ones at JP Morgan that just lost a couple of billion in a hedging scheme (probably thought up by an "expert"! )

Or the ones at John Paulson's multi-billion dollar hedge fund? He had a 50+% drawdown last year when he, or one of his experts, bet the market was going to collapse?

Well, it can't be the experts at MF Global, Madoff's Hedge Fund, Revco, or Enron, 'cause their experts have already done them in.

Experts talk the talk, but traders walk the walk.

I think the central banks are probably the only "experts" manipulating the markets right now, and I doubt that they read the news to find out what they're going to do!
The mind thinks, the heart knows...
  • #10,567
  • May 11, 2012 9:50am May 11, 2012 9:50am
Quoting handy148
Surely we have to change the trend threshold in Extreme TMA from .5 to .25 as well don't we ??
Yes. We have to change the Dashboard also.
Observation is the path to discovery.
  • #10,568
  • May 11, 2012 9:52am May 11, 2012 9:52am
Al, with the new template without the dashed grey line(M15 TF TMA), how do I trade the M15 TF? Do I have to wait for the cross of the outer band of H1 TF of the solid orange lines to enter the trade? Or do I have to go back to the old high and low ATR template to trade with the M15 TF?

Can I use the new rule of the -0.25 and 0.25 for the old High and Low ATR template or is this rule for the H1, H4 and D1 TF only?
  • #10,569
  • May 11, 2012 9:53am May 11, 2012 9:53am
Quoting dorellino
Al, on rule 4


4- When trading charts with time frames of H1 or less, the H4 channel must be ranging (-0.25 to 0.25) or rising for a long trade and ranging (-025 to 0.25) or falling for a short trade. On H4 TF, the same conditions mentioned must apply to the Daily channel.


are you referring to the 0.25 value in the slope? You wrote the H4 channel must be ranging (-0.25 to 0.25)

thanks
Max
Yes. The new Ranging spread is -0.25 to 0.25.
Observation is the path to discovery.
  • #10,570
  • May 11, 2012 9:55am May 11, 2012 9:55am
Quoting Aj1
The Cad looks to me as it is going to be a good one to short. Look at the 4hr massive divergence on the slope indi, and the rsi, also the trix. This is also the case in the 1hr, also it seems the 3rd breath is happening on the 1hr.
The price is above the 4hr and 1hr TMA,s, there is resistence at the 1.0086 area.
Yes. I saw that also but decided against playing it before the employment news release.
Observation is the path to discovery.
  • #10,571
  • May 11, 2012 9:56am May 11, 2012 9:56am
Quoting tomthepoppop
Just my opinion - but the Dollar Index shows the greenback heading up so I would only take a very small 10-15 pip short if at all. The 1hr and 4hr slope are heading up and I am very leery about going against them.
Tom
UsdIndex is overbought. I expect a pullback to 80.
Observation is the path to discovery.
  • #10,572
  • May 11, 2012 9:58am May 11, 2012 9:58am
Quoting Aj1
Cad position closed +66.

Aj1
Good deal. If it was a live account, you have more guts than I have playing it before the news today.
Observation is the path to discovery.
  • #10,573
  • May 11, 2012 10:00am May 11, 2012 10:00am
Quoting grechmar
Are these changes due to the strong trnding market seen recently. therefore temporary?
Besides this you talk of a D1 channel on the 1hr TF.. i only have 1 hr(orange) and 4hr(pink) channels on my charts..
Yes. You need to add another TMA Line indi and set the first input to 1440. I used aqua for the color of the bands.
Observation is the path to discovery.
  • #10,574
  • Edited 10:41am May 11, 2012 10:20am | Edited 10:41am
Quoting dorellino

4- When trading charts with time frames of H1 or less, the H4 channel must be ranging (-0.25 to 0.25) or rising for a long trade and ranging (-025 to 0.25) or falling for a short trade. On H4 TF, the same conditions mentioned must apply to the Daily channel.


Quoting Alorente
Yes. The new Ranging spread is -0.25 to 0.25.
I guess this mostly answers my enquiry above, albeit maybe not fully, I think I seen you mentioning this rule #4 before and that you were thinking of added it.

Do I understand this correctly from page 1

and ranging (-025 to 0.25) or falling for a short trade.

As long as H4 is falling, even if above 0.25 it is okay to short smaller TF's?

Also with this rule, using the example from my post above, I guess the answer would be it is not okay to enter long on M15 for example, because H4 TMA is falling.

Thanks for any help and clarification. Yesterday was the first day I was able to setup the template and start looking at the charts in real-time.
  • #10,575
  • May 11, 2012 10:21am May 11, 2012 10:21am
Quoting puma
Hi Al,

i believe there are 2 factors which are crucial in the system you have fantastically developed in this thread, and which need to by highlighted.

The first one is the general trend and/or fundamentals: you are very good and experienced to evaluate the sentiment of the market (i.e. do not long euro and do not short usd a few weeks ago). To one extreme, if you are able to get the right sentiment, you can enter anytime anywhere and be profitable, regardless the TMA or any other indicator. Especially if you allow large stoploss (or none)....
Yes. You are right. I am a discretionary trader and I will always be because that is my advantage over the other guys. Anyone can follow a system, but when you sprinkle that with knowledge of fundamentals and many years of experience, the system becomes a lot more profitable. It would be foolish not to take advantage of it, and yet I read traders who say that over and over. "Follow your system religiously or else you´ll get into trouble..." Blah, Blah, Blah..

Regarding what you said about flipping a coin, I have to tell you that I have done it. First, to see what I can do when placed in an unplanned situation. Second, to build confidence. Once you realize you can get out of any situation, your confidence increases dramatically. I did it for a week on a live account and I ended with 80% winners and a nice profit for the week (12%). The key was to close the losers quickly, without letting the losses grow. In total, I took 33 trades in that week flipping a coin. The process I used was opening each of the 16 charts I keep, in sequence and flipping a coin: Heads = Buy and Tails = Sell. I limited the total of open trades to 3. As I closed each trade, I substituted it with the next chart on the sequence without prior analysis and without peeking. So I went through the 16 charts twice and 1 more trade at the end with the first chart again. I did use recovery on one of the trades successfully. I have to say that it was fun, but something I wouldn´t do on a regular basis.
Observation is the path to discovery.
  • #10,576
  • May 11, 2012 10:30am May 11, 2012 10:30am
Quoting jayjonbeach
Hello Al and All. I am thinking of buying GBP/CHF here and have a question for AL or any veteran of the system here that hopefully someone can answer asap. Friday noon EST is probably a bad time to enter a trade but besides that.

I haven't read fully quite everything yet but the one question I have is, this pair looks to be a screaming buy on M1, M5, M15, and M30 and very close on H1.

When you look at H4 and D1, you can see it is probably just ripe for a short.

So in a sense, you have a conflicting signal. This isn't much different than...
My answer is simple. I wouldn´t touch that pair. Why?. The Swissie is being manipulated to stay around 1.20 to the euro, So in reality, you are trading EurGbp and that is a strongly trending pair, which would not work well with our Extreme TMA system which is ideal for ranging pairs. Try to pick ranging pairs and you will do much, much better with this system.
Observation is the path to discovery.
  • #10,577
  • May 11, 2012 10:34am May 11, 2012 10:34am
Quoting Immvp
Al, with the new template without the dashed grey line(M15 TF TMA), how do I trade the M15 TF? Do I have to wait for the cross of the outer band of H1 TF of the solid orange lines to enter the trade? Or do I have to go back to the old high and low ATR template to trade with the M15 TF?

Can I use the new rule of the -0.25 and 0.25 for the old High and Low ATR template or is this rule for the H1, H4 and D1 TF only?
Of course you can trade M15. Just add another TMA line indi and set the first input to 15. Choose the color that you want for your bands. On some charts I have 4 TMA´s. M15, H1, H4, D1. On most I have H1, H4 and D1. The more the better.
Observation is the path to discovery.
  • #10,578
  • May 11, 2012 10:35am May 11, 2012 10:35am
Quoting Alorente
Yes. I saw that also but decided against playing it before the employment news release.
Hello Al

Yes the trade was a proper trade, after doing the analysis I did not think that it could go up much higher. I did think about pulling out prior to the news release but decided to let it run. Risky I know. Lucky. Probably. But all the signs were there for a drop.

Regards
Aj1
  • #10,579
  • May 11, 2012 10:51am May 11, 2012 10:51am
Here is a neat template I have created and been experimenting with. It is ideal for trending markets and it won´t hurt you too much on Ranging ones because you get very few crossing signals. The aqua line is a TMA center line with the bands made invisible (Black). The Red line is a really neat MA I´ve come up with. It is a 12 Period MA of the TMA data itself.

You can trade it as always in, Buy when Aqua line crosses above Red line and Sell when Aqua line crosses below Red line.

I traded it in one of my live accounts and did quite well. Lost 2 to 6 pips on ranging markets but made a huge bundle on trending ones. You have to zoom in to see the crossing happen precisely and enter right on the close of the candle. Don´t second guess yourself.

It works in all time frames, because the TMA Aqua line is set to Current TF.

An EA would be simple to create if I´m not mistaken.

Let me know if someone wants to volunteer to make the EA. I´d love to have it for night sessions.
Attached File(s)
File Type: tpl lorente magic system.tpl   14 KB | 1,217 downloads
Observation is the path to discovery.
  • #10,580
  • May 11, 2012 11:18am May 11, 2012 11:18am
Quoting Alorente
Here is a neat template I have created and been experimenting with. It is ideal for trending markets and it won´t hurt you too much on Ranging ones because you get very few crossing signals. The aqua line is a TMA center line with the bands made invisible (Black). The Red line is a really neat MA I´ve come up with. It is a 12 Period MA of the TMA data itself.

You can trade it as always in, Buy when Aqua line crosses above Red line and Sell when Aqua line crosses below Red line.

I traded it in one of my live accounts and did quite well. Lost 2...
seller9 has created a very good EA in his thread Extreme Tool Box, i think will work with this
A good trader follows his rules, but great trader knows when to break them
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