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Attachments: Extreme TMA System
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Extreme TMA System

Quoting Alorente
I donīt trade them. I use them as confirmation of my market view at any moment. Coral above and increasing distance to 200 = Bull. Below and decreasing distance = Bear.
Excellent! That's it? I love it, simple and down to earth. Maybe we should put this info on page 1?
Thanks Al, can't tell you how much I appreciate your care.
Max
Quoting svezir
Al,

I know from the original post on page 1 that you have modified ATR multiplier for 1H to 2 for all pairs and use 3 for 4H, but what do you use for the 1D multiplier?
No. I am using 2.0 for all TMA ATR Multipliers now. I found that in the long run, the system works best this way.
Observation is the path to discovery.
Quoting dorellino
Excellent! Thats it? I love it, simple and down to earth. Maybe we should put this info on the page 1?
Thanks Al, can't tell you how much I appreciate your care.
Max
Max, I changed post 10503. You may want to read it again. It is now correct.
Observation is the path to discovery.
Quoting Alorente
Today I completed the 30th day since I linked one of my accounts with mtfxbook. As you can see, the results are pretty good for one month. All the trades were placed following the Extreme TMA first three rules with one additional condition: The H4 channel has to be going sideways or slanted in the direction of my trade or I donīt enter the trade. I trade in H1 and I have the H4 and D1 channels on all the charts. As you can see, I did not trade every day and the most I made in any single day was 280 pips. The key is a high percentage...
no comment!
Quoting alvelino
Short GBPCHF
Long AUDUSD & EURGBP

Got in outside the 1h,4h and daily TMA bands(3xatr mulitpliers).
Any thoughts on those?
You should read the post where I posted the results. I explained:

All the trades were placed following the Extreme TMA first three rules with one additional condition: The H4 channel has to be going sideways or slanted in the direction of my trade or I donīt enter the trade.

I will be adding this to the rules. I have found that the percentage of winners increases greatly when this is taken into account.

On AudUsd and EurGbp, H4 channel is slanting against you.
Observation is the path to discovery.
I have changed the Rules on Page 1. After extensive testing proven by actual results with my live accounts, I have found the new rules to be much superior than the previous ones. The changes involve Rule 1 and Rule 4.

The inputs in the Slope 1.5 Normalized indicator must be changed to -0.25 and 0.25 instead of the default -0.50 and 0.50.

Let me know if you have any questions.
Observation is the path to discovery.
Quoting Alorente
Today I completed the 30th day since I linked one of my accounts with mtfxbook. As you can see, the results are pretty good for one month. All the trades were placed following the Extreme TMA first three rules with one additional condition: The H4 channel has to be going sideways or slanted in the direction of my trade or I donīt enter the trade. I trade in H1 and I have the H4 and D1 channels on all the charts. As you can see, I did not trade every day and the most I made in any single day was 280 pips. The key is a high percentage...
Incredible results Al. I'd like to be a fly on the wall inside your head while your examining a chart.

Questions;

1. You didn't use stop losses and used Recovery once but you still recorded some losses. Did you close them yourself at a loss because you reevaluated based on market price action? Can you please elaborate?

2. I recall you mentioning using about roughly 8 pairs or thereabouts. Is that still roughly accurate or do you monitor more than that?

3. From a commonsense standpoint I think monitoring as many pairs as possible (16?) will yield more opportunities therefore higher returns. What has been/is your experience with this?

4. I also recall you mentioning using more than one computer monitor while trading. I assume you are still doing this?

I am having some challenges with the TMA-Slope Indicator in that even though it's says ranging (.5 to -5) I sometimes get on the wrong side of a larger downtrend.

Example would be trading the 15M and 1H is in downtrend and the TMA Slope Indicator reads ranging so rules dictate trading either direction but sometimes I do a buy and it gets into a large negative drawdown because larger trend 1H/4H is down.

5. I assume you are now advocating if 1H/4H downtrend then only go short on 15M and skip ranging guidelines of TMA Slope indicator?

6. You mentioned in the past you always try to keep your margin level above 200%. Is this the same as on MT4 "Margin level" shown in the open trades section ?

7. Based on your personal margin rules, typically how many trades do you have open including Recovery? What's your max positions open?

Thanks for your assistance.

Best regards.

EDIT - Skip #5. I just read your recent posts. Thanks again.
Quoting beto21_cwb
By the way, is anyone using The Recovery System EA ?

I have not received many feedbacks about it... Anyway, I really hope no one needs to use it, but just in case... =)
I have used it on cable with success - demo only!

Jim
Quoting Riddermark
Incredible results Al. I'd like to be a fly on the wall inside your head while your examining a chart.

Questions;

1. You didn't use stop losses and used Recovery once but you still recorded some losses. Did you close them yourself at a loss? Can you please elaborate?

2. I recall you mentioning using about roughly 8 pairs or thereabouts. Is that still roughly accurate or do you monitor more than that?

3. From a commonsense standpoint I think monitoring as many pairs as possible (16?) will yield more opportunities therefore higher returns. What...
1- Yes. I donīt hesitate on taking a loss if I see there is potential for price to run away from me. I must say that the losses were very small, and in all instances, price came back in my favor after I closed them, but when I feel the probabilities have turned against me I take the loss and then make further decisions with a clear head.

2- I am monitoring 16 at this time; EU, UCad, GU, EJ, EG, GJ, UChf, NU, AN, GCad, EA, ECad, UJ, AU, S&P and Gold.

3- You are correct.

4- Yes. I am currently using 4 24" screens and two computers.

5- I agree with you. I just changed the Rules a while ago.

6- Yes. I use 50:1 leverage and always keep the Margin Level between 200% and 300%. I have recently opened an account with Pepperstone. There I use 100:1 and Margin Level of 400% to 600%. 100:1 is the minimum leverage they offer.

7- As Iīve acquired more expertise usin the system, I have been able to keep multiple orders open simultaneously. Iīve had up to 10. Of course, this can only be done when you have 4 screens.
Observation is the path to discovery.
Quoting Alorente
I have changed the Rules on Page 1. After extensive testing proven by actual results with my live accounts, I have found the new rules to be much superior than the previous ones. The changes involve Rule 1 and Rule 4.

The inputs in the Slope 1.5 Normalized indicator must be changed to -0.25 and 0.25 instead of the default -0.50 and 0.50.

Let me know if you have any questions.
Hi Al,

I assume that you've included the new rules in the latest Packet.zip, right?

I got a question in regard to Rule 4: "When trading charts with time frames of H1 or less, the H4 channel must be ranging (-0.25 to 0.25) or rising for a long trade and ranging (-025 to 0.25) or falling for a short trade..."


The wording is implying, if we trade with TF of M15 for example, we need to consider the H4 channel only, no need to worry about H1 channel. Is my interpretation correct here? Please advise.

Thanks...
To excel by continuous learning
Quoting Riddermark
Incredible results Al. I'd like to be a fly on the wall inside your head while your examining a chart.

Questions;

1. You didn't use stop losses and used Recovery once but you still recorded some losses. Did you close them yourself at a loss because you reevaluated based on market price action? Can you please elaborate?

2. I recall you mentioning using about roughly 8 pairs or thereabouts. Is that still roughly accurate or do you monitor more than that?

3. From a commonsense standpoint I think monitoring as many pairs as possible (16?) will...
I forgot to mention that 5 of the losses were due to clicking on the wrong line in the heat of the battle and having to close it immediately after with a loss of the spread. I am trying to correct this by slowing down the process of opening a trade. I now click on the chart first so that the correct pair comes up in the window when pressing F9.
Observation is the path to discovery.
Quoting PeepCzar
Hi Al,

I assume that you've included the new rules in the latest Packet.zip, right?

I got a question in regard to Rule 4: "When trading charts with time frames of H1 or less, the H4 channel must be ranging (-0.25 to 0.25) or rising for a long trade and ranging (-025 to 0.25) or falling for a short trade..."


The wording is implying, if we trade with TF of M15 for example, we need to consider the H4 channel only, no need to worry about H1 channel. Is my interpretation correct here? Please advise.

Thanks...
I look at three channels at a time. Since I trade the H1 TF they are: H1, H4 and D1. If you have to pick one, I would go with H4. It seems to be the clear boss as far as dictating trend.
Observation is the path to discovery.
Quoting Alorente
...I hope seeing these results encourages you to keep at it. The system works. Persistence will pay off for you.

PS- I am thinking of including the condition I mentioned above to the rules. Iīd like opinions, please. I also wanted to note that I did not look at support/resistance levels at all in entering these trades. Actually, I have taken the Pivots indi off all my charts for clarity.
Al, thanks so much, from all of us! This really helps, and I like the longer TF, the rule simplifying (removing all that's unnecessary), and the encouragement! I have to admit, at my age, the complexity was getting a little much for me! LOL

I think by returning to the elegance of "Make everything as simple as possible, but not simpler. ~ (Albert Einstein)", you've made the system a lot more flexible and adaptable, resulting in a more robust system. (And besides, it works for me! LOL)

I had to study evolution in a previous academic life, and what I saw, again and again, was that during good times life always goes through an expansionary period of experimentation, which results in increasing complexity, in an effort to gain an edge and survive (sound familiar? ;^).

Because this happens during stable periods of geological (or market) history, increasing complexity (more indicators, EA's, templates, etc.) leads to over-specialization (curve-fitting, because it only considers the current stable conditions.) This increases vulnerability to failure once conditions begin to change, and the more rapidly they change, worse the result.

Rapidly changing conditions can spell the death of any curve-fitted system, natural or man-made, but some might survive. But a catastrophic collapse usually wipes out everything except the most adaptable and robust systems (unless you happen to have Ben Bernanke as your Dutch Uncle! )

(Really, the point of Nassim Taleb and his "Black Swans" = complexity and vulnerability to catastrophic failure are directly correlated.)

Basically, the more specialized (and successful) the trading system, the more at risk it is (due to curve-fitting.) This makes continuous "tweaking", to get that "Holy Grail" system just right, can be a way of setting yourself up for a big problem later on, not to mention the time involved which reduces your returns/hr. to just below minimum wage!

(Boy, do we live in an era (or should it be error) with the potential for "rapidly changing, and/or catastrophic, conditions!" )

From this there are two take away lessons for traders, I believe. One is the well known K.I.S.S. principle, and the other is to use good money mgmt., i.e., Keep It Sincerely Simple, and, as you've mentioned numerous times, never put more than a small amount of your account at risk, and never put all your eggs in one basket (Enron, Revco, MF Global, Madoff, etc.)

(An aside - would you put all your money in a fund run by a guy with a name that sounds like "made off"? How about a company that sounds like "end run"? Apparently, the Big Guy Upstairs does have a sense of humor! )
The mind thinks, the heart knows...
Quoting beto21_cwb
By the way, is anyone using The Recovery System EA ?

I have not received many feedbacks about it... Anyway, I really hope no one needs to use it, but just in case... =)
Beto,

Thanks for your work and Al's on this. I read the manual but just to be sure;

1. It goes down three levels - 2nd, 3rd, 4th ?

2. Is there a way to get it to not begin or halt any additional levels of Recovery by checking Margin and if it is below a certain Margin percent level then don't take the trade?

Thanks for your help.

Best regards.
Quoting Favorite
Olarion1975, you are a very good trader, you share your knowledge, you help people, without you this thread wouldn't be the same.

You have my vouch!
Thank you, Favorite. Appreciate it very much!
Very impressive results you posted Alorente.

I have changed from trading the 15M T/F to 1H on one of my live accounts the last 2 weeks and I also had decided the .50 and -.50 was too much to determine ranging so it's great to see you also have changed the rules on page 1 to .25 and -.25.

Is the slope indicator in the packet on page 1 updated?
I changed the levels but of course the colours are still set to change at the old levels.

Rule 4, I scanned through all pairs and the only one within .25 and -.25 is UsdJpy, so this is going to really reduce the amount of trades we can enter.
In order to update the slope indicator with the new +.25/-.25 rule I think you can do it by going into indicator inputs and changing the edblHigh1 and edblLow1 values manually as I have circled in the attached picture. The color indication on the screen should change at these new levels. You can also change the level lines manually as well.
Attached Image
Quoting normtold
Very impressive results you posted Alorente.

I have changed from trading the 15M T/F to 1H on one of my live accounts the last 2 weeks and I also had decided the .50 and -.50 was too much to determine ranging so it's great to see you also have changed the rules on page 1 to .25 and -.25.

Is the slope indicator in the packet on page 1 updated?
I changed the levels but of course the colours are still set to change at the old levels.

Rule 4, I scanned through all pairs and the only one within .25 and -.25 is UsdJpy, so this is going to really...
If you look at EURAUD M15 has both H1 and H4 and D1 at very close to .25 and decreasing. At M15 it is above .25 but decreasing as well. I think it will try a double top and by then M15 will also be below the threshold of .25 level. There is also a daily R1 just above the PA.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: euraudm15.jpg Size: 125 KB
This is from the Economist at FxPro. It is exactly what I suggested the other day. A government or two are propping up the Euro in their own self interest:

Euro defying the inevitable? As we have been observing recently, it is remarkable that the single currency is not a lot lower. Consider that European leaders are now openly canvassing the possibility that Greece might be forced to leave the single currency; tumbling property prices in Spain represent a massive risk not just to the banking system and the sovereign but also threatens to absorb virtually all of the financial resources that Europe has set aside for such eventualities; and the head of China’s sovereign wealth fund has declared that they are not buying any more European bonds. And yet, despite all of this negative news-flow, the euro is only drifting downwards ever so slowly. It is a mystery wrapped up in an enigma. Could it be that a couple of sovereign wealth funds with extremely deep pockets, one from Asia and one from Europe, are hoovering up euros from the sellers in ‘unlimited quantities’? If so, is there a risk that these players ultimately decide to step back and allow the euro to find a more natural resting place? Because, it is clear to all that Europe needs a weaker currency right now to assist in the re balancing process.
Observation is the path to discovery.
Quoting normtold
Very impressive results you posted Alorente.

I have changed from trading the 15M T/F to 1H on one of my live accounts the last 2 weeks and I also had decided the .50 and -.50 was too much to determine ranging so it's great to see you also have changed the rules on page 1 to .25 and -.25.

Is the slope indicator in the packet on page 1 updated?
I changed the levels but of course the colours are still set to change at the old levels.

Rule 4, I scanned through all pairs and the only one within .25 and -.25 is UsdJpy, so this is going to really...
No. When you change the inputs on the Slope indi, the colors will change as well as the words Ranging, Buy Only and Sell Only.

I did not change the indi in the zip file. I will wait for Shah or someone else to do that in the code.
Observation is the path to discovery.
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