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Where can I learn more about Price Action like those in James16 charts? 9 replies

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james16 Chart Thread

  • #111,581
  • May 10, 2012 5:09am May 10, 2012 5:09am
Quoting Quezoy
You should draw the fib from the top pf the wick, of the pinbar.
Thanks Quezoy. I checked the fib. Its from the high of 13278 to low of 12520 which I think is correct?
  • #111,582
  • May 10, 2012 5:14am May 10, 2012 5:14am
Quoting Quezoy
First, I need to clear something up.

I watch my daily chart and spot an interesting area, where, for example, a breakout may happen.
So I decide, to go down to H1 to catch a better entry.

Is this what we are talking about here?

Cause when I look at your chart, it seems to me you went for a retest (and fail) of the 1.30 resistance. So price isnt breaking out of anything here.
A breakout would have been if you would anticipate a break of 1.30 and consequently a move up.

May be mixed up terms on my side.
Yes, going into lower TF to look for trades which are independent but complimentary to whatever breakout we are anticipating, be that breaking a BRN or horizontal TL or rising/falling TL - whatever.

I dont think i need to say that this is more dangerous if you're not careful so i'm not advising it. It's something i sometimes do.

And i must apologise. 1.30 was the number i had in my head for EU not EC although it's still something i was looking to get under and have as a protective resistance, something it's failed to do since forever.

Sticking with breakout/retest is safest and best.

I hope that's cleared something up - feel free to ask more if i've confused anything!
  • #111,583
  • May 10, 2012 5:15am May 10, 2012 5:15am
Quoting human2
Thanks Quezoy. I checked the fib. Its from the high of 13278 to low of 12520 which I think is correct?
My mistake, i thought you were refering to the last wave down, but I see now you are refering to the whole move.

Thats acctualy a good question: is the whole move down still relevant?
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Thoughts are things
  • #111,584
  • May 10, 2012 5:20am May 10, 2012 5:20am
Quoting Quezoy
I am long on his trade.
Took it after the 2 day pinbar. SL below 1.28 area.
Price got rejected at 1.28 RN 50fib confluence area. Nice space to the upside.
Interesting Quezoy - Yes 1.28 does seem very strong, price shot straight back up, and didn't even notice the 2dPB (assuming you are talking about 1&2 May?).

However, what Bud Fox is saying also makes sense as it seems that there is a lot of resistance to the upside...

Quoting bud_fox
Hi Slickmilk,

I am watching this one also.

IMHO a lot of resistance/confluence above the BEOB. Swing High, Strong PPZ, both 150 & 365 EMA's, RN and 61.8% fib retracement. I am hopeful that this will hold and send price down.
Perhaps this just means price will just now consolidate and range between 1.2800/50 (which is also between 50 and 61 fibs)???

Thanks both for comments. Still learning.
  • #111,585
  • May 10, 2012 5:26am May 10, 2012 5:26am
Quoting Quezoy
My mistake, i thought you were refering to the last wave down, but I see now you are refering to the whole move.

Thats acctualy a good question: is the whole move down still relevant?
I don't know the answer to that, but I do know a few people who do!
  • #111,586
  • May 10, 2012 5:34am May 10, 2012 5:34am
Quoting slickmik
Interesting Quezoy - Yes 1.28 does seem very strong, price shot straight back up, and didn't even notice the 2dPB (assuming you are talking about 1&2 May?).
Talking about the 4th and 7th of may bars.
Friday was probably profit taking, on monday we shot up again from the PPZ.

There is resistance, but also a lot of space. Im playing that card, though I may be giving this fact to much meaning.

All in all, not an A setup for sure, but I went for it.
Thoughts are things
  • #111,587
  • May 10, 2012 5:42am May 10, 2012 5:42am
GBP/AUD has reached an interesting area around the BRN 1.600, forming a BEOB on daily...on H4 is formed a nice pinbar but i missed that one. I try to get in a short trade after a BEOB on D1

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  • #111,588
  • May 10, 2012 5:50am May 10, 2012 5:50am
EUR/GBP

nice reaction around the BRN 0.8000 with a nice pinbar...maybe beginning a break of a strong down trend

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  • #111,589
  • May 10, 2012 5:53am May 10, 2012 5:53am
Here's EU, finally showing signs of a down move. My order is in but fingers crossed....

Has any one else been looking at this from my perspective??

-H
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  • #111,590
  • May 10, 2012 5:57am May 10, 2012 5:57am
Quoting bullzeye
EUR/GBP

nice reaction around the BRN 0.8000 with a nice pinbar...maybe beginning a break of a strong down trend

Attachment
The 80 area held strongly in 2008. First time returning there.
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Thoughts are things
  • #111,591
  • May 10, 2012 6:20am May 10, 2012 6:20am
Quoting beebolbod
Yes, going into lower TF to look for trades which are independent but complimentary to whatever breakout we are anticipating, be that breaking a BRN or horizontal TL or rising/falling TL - whatever.

I dont think i need to say that this is more dangerous if you're not careful so i'm not advising it. It's something i sometimes do.

And i must apologise. 1.30 was the number i had in my head for EU not EC although it's still something i was looking to get under and have as a protective resistance, something it's failed to do since forever....
cleared up.
Thoughts are things
  • #111,592
  • May 10, 2012 6:24am May 10, 2012 6:24am
Quoting goldfish3
Here's EU, finally showing signs of a down move. My order is in but fingers crossed....

Has any one else been looking at this from my perspective??

-H
After the weekly LCS got broken by the weekend gap there was a retest which failed. I've entered after that.
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Thoughts are things
  • #111,593
  • May 10, 2012 6:39am May 10, 2012 6:39am
Quoting Quezoy
After the weekly LCS got broken by the weekend gap there was a retest which failed. I've entered after that.
yah i'm in here. this was what i was talking about 1.3041 ish was my entry.
  • #111,594
  • May 10, 2012 7:53am May 10, 2012 7:53am
Same here on EURUSD, entered a bit later though!

My trades have become more planned out. Protecting profits, and setting pending orders to let the market decide.

+80 pips on both trades combined
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  • #111,595
  • May 10, 2012 8:22am May 10, 2012 8:22am
Quoting slickmik
Thanks Ghous. Definitely understand your comments re the strength of the bar being fairly weak - would you compare to recent bars to determine the "strength" of the PA?

As more or less a newb in this, finding that the hardest part is determining the quality of the set up/PA, rather than finding one.

If you don't mind, can I pick your brains on this one then? Fairly similar but yet to close though (for tmr). This time price has pierced the BRN/PPZ level and bar is somewhat stronger when compared to prior bars. Its also bouncing off a Fib...
Trading counter trend is where the most pips are with the James16 methodology. But higher reward comes with higher risk. And we mitigate that risk here by making sure we pick on bars that look really strong and authoritative.

You are right in that this bar resembles the AUD/NZD BEOB with respect to the fact that it doesn't stand out.

The best thing you can do is stay zoomed out on your chart instead of zooming in on the action so you don't miss the relative size of the PA bar. Now of course a BUOB/BEOB has to be larger than the preceding bar to be a BUOB/BEOB in the first place. The trick is to weigh it against the move (and the bars that form it) to see if it has the guts and muscle to try and take out the already printed dominant order flow in the market. How do you do that? Like I said by simply making sure that the bar is large enough to compare well not only with the preceding one bar but a good bunch of action.

And then again its just one part of the story. Remember the factors of location, confluence, and traffic versus space matter also. So while you are right in pointing out that its off the RN notice that the small size of it makes a trade very vulnerable to trouble areas that are up and close and personal. SO for instance the PPZ marked is a MAJOR trouble area for price if it decides to break the BUOB to the upside.

And BTW as you may have noticed, all your 3 factors that make or break a trade for you, i.e location, bar, and space are very inter connected. For example a strong bar is often found at great locations and will have less of a problem in the space department. A mediocre bar will almost always be struggling with space issues because the weak sentiment makes the trade fragile and totally exposed to all kinds of trouble areas including minor and major ones.

I appreciate your bringing up of questions and charts for further clarifications. I like how you are dedicated to your education.



g.
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I believe . . .
  • #111,596
  • May 10, 2012 8:43am May 10, 2012 8:43am
Quoting Quezoy
mike's perspective

I did not take it either.
notice how that pin broke then shot ALL the way down. That's what happens at less confluenced areas. So it can be trickier to manage and why we say manage them tightly (with less confluence). Markets look like they are wanting to retrace some of the previous weeks moves a bit so that could pull this higher but I would still be protecting my risk trading back into the last swing high with such a short amount of space.

I will wait till that 1.6 though, the more confluence is just easier to wait for in the long run

Thanks for posting the link!
Mike
  • #111,597
  • May 10, 2012 8:51am May 10, 2012 8:51am
Quoting mbqb11
notice how that pin broke then shot ALL the way down. That's what happens at less confluenced areas. So it can be trickier to manage and why we say manage them tightly (with less confluence). Markets look like they are wanting to retrace some of the previous weeks moves a bit so that could pull this higher but I would still be protecting my risk trading back into the last swing high with such a short amount of space.

I will wait till that 1.6 though, the more confluence is just easier to wait for in the long run

Thanks for posting the link!
Mike...
I made my pips and now am at break even with the rest !
  • #111,598
  • May 10, 2012 8:54am May 10, 2012 8:54am
example of an area I am watching if we put in deep enough retraces(I promised Q these before)

Notice the wedge and price gapped right out of the wedge. Gaps can often act as S/R when price closes them

Will price close this gap and turn down? I don't know but I know that's a great area to watch(with the 1.3 in mind)

If price can close the gap and close back INTO the wedge, that is a pretty bullish sign. Great areas offer great opportunities BOTH ways
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  • #111,599
  • May 10, 2012 8:55am May 10, 2012 8:55am
Quoting me_nabeel1
I made my pips and now am at break even with the rest !
phew glad to hear you hold through that drawdown!

I think price has a beter chance of moving up now(possibly to retest the last swing high?) With the stronger close we just got that is a much stronger sign

Good job
Mike
  • #111,600
  • Edited 9:37am May 10, 2012 9:18am | Edited 9:37am
Quoting slickmik
Interesting Quezoy - Yes 1.28 does seem very strong, price shot straight back up, and didn't even notice the 2dPB (assuming you are talking about 1&2 May?).

However, what Bud Fox is saying also makes sense as it seems that there is a lot of resistance to the upside...



Perhaps this just means price will just now consolidate and range between 1.2800/50 (which is also between 50 and 61 fibs)???

Thanks both for comments. Still learning.
In the time that I have spent reading and learning on this forum which is almost 2 years I have learnt that Support & Resistance is king and we wait and be patient at these areas for price action to give us a heads up to what direction price may move in.

I never take a trade based on S&R and PA solely. I try to back each trade up with as much confluence as possible e.g. PPZ’s, BRN’s, RN’s, Fib Retracements, Trendlines, EMA’s, Divergence etc.

The confluence has to be obvious and I do not curve fit. The more confluence, the more confidence I will have in placing the trade.

Although in this instance the actual BEOB is a weak bar it is still a BEOB bar by definition. Why I personally believe that price will go south is the confluence behind this bar. Of course this is just MHO and by no means am I right.

Of course as with this setup the FTA becomes crucial as space is tight.

Confluence behind BEOB

150 EMA
365 EMA
PPZ 1.2850-1.2900
RN 1.2900
61.8 Fib Retracement

That’s a lot of resistence. It will be interesting to see which direction price moves.

bud_fox
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