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Walk the Talk from a fun loving discretionary trader 46 replies

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  • #26,581
  • May 9, 2012 6:08pm May 9, 2012 6:08pm
Sweet bro
  • #26,582
  • May 9, 2012 6:09pm May 9, 2012 6:09pm
http://www.rich.co.ke/
  • #26,583
  • May 9, 2012 6:11pm May 9, 2012 6:11pm
https://customers.thomsonreuters.com...May_9_2012.pdf

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  • #26,584
  • May 9, 2012 6:18pm May 9, 2012 6:18pm
hard to break 1.80%.

Lol might aswell play casino in equities 1.84% yield
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  • #26,585
  • May 9, 2012 6:23pm May 9, 2012 6:23pm
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  • #26,586
  • May 9, 2012 6:37pm May 9, 2012 6:37pm
real good point and i think it has not been lost......maybe 1.60 in a freak, but that is also negative yield

no mo bonds lol

besides if gold breaks S it probably collapses and you know what that means..........Auswitchterity......unless you have cash of course

fuck, even the idiot savant D rosenbear said it today.....gold is going to $3000 and the CBs will print.

so, simple math according to DR......

Quote
posted by ingmar
hard to break 1.80%.

Lol might aswell play casino in equities 1.84% yield
  • #26,587
  • May 9, 2012 7:31pm May 9, 2012 7:31pm
Watching USDX.. notice 50% level on day chart is holding..also at this level.. using Fibo pivots and playing with only hier time frames no day.. there is current week 38%.. 8014..last week100%8024..3 weeks ago50%..8003..current mth618%8016.. last mth 38%..8012 also ext range..1.618%8010..also a nice Quad on 4 hr..connects multi previous resistance areas.. also noticed on 4 hr diversions on RSI CCI and Macd.. am thinking seriously of taking long possie EUUD.. know what they say abt darkest hour.. just my opn of course..
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  • #26,588
  • May 9, 2012 7:33pm May 9, 2012 7:33pm
Another 4 hr picture
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  • #26,589
  • May 9, 2012 7:52pm May 9, 2012 7:52pm
agree that USD runs and GLD collapses then it is shit hits the fan big time for politicians and central banks.......long Dow and Nikki so maybe a spike on UST to 1.60(yield) but again just more negative yield and biggestBalls has a BIG put out in the market and that will be VERY HARD to live down if it fails......

anointed one speaks tomorrow and if only for a quick trade kind of doubt the 'market' insults the savoir before the speech so long looks like the easy mo.

there are however holes in the boat

Quoting danc
Watching USDX.. notice 50% level on day chart is holding..also at this level.. using Fibo pivots and playing with only hier time frames no day.. there is current week 38%.. 8014..last week100%8024..3 weeks ago50%..8003..current mth618%8016.. last mth 38%..8012 also ext range..1.618%8010..also a nice Quad on 4 hr..connects multi previous resistance areas.. also noticed on 4 hr diversions on RSI CCI and Macd.. am thinking seriously of taking long possie EUUD.. know what they say abt darkest hour.. just my opn of course..
  • #26,590
  • May 10, 2012 2:33am May 10, 2012 2:33am
TP1 taken on the 100 FE.

TP 2 to be in the 0.77 region... may be a bit of slow burner...
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  • #26,591
  • May 10, 2012 2:49am May 10, 2012 2:49am
Quoting roro53
agree that USD runs and GLD collapses then it is shit hits the fan big time for politicians and central banks.......long Dow and Nikki so maybe a spike on UST to 1.60(yield) but again just more negative yield and biggestBalls has a BIG put out in the market and that will be VERY HARD to live down if it fails......

anointed one speaks tomorrow and if only for a quick trade kind of doubt the 'market' insults the savoir before the speech so long looks like the easy mo.

there are however holes in the boat
Thks for reply...
And above.charts.. EUGBP.. incredible att to detail.. so clear.. open my eyes..like a picture show..thks
  • #26,592
  • May 10, 2012 5:07am May 10, 2012 5:07am
Ah well, I did not get the opportunity to place another short under a rise into the descending red MAs of the 4hr Guppy profile (well, this morning, anyway). May well have just missed a chance to short on the 1hr, but will now wait for news to pass on, before adding.

If price does now continue to drop, I will be looking for a break of the 100 FE, and retrace back to it in order to test resistance, before continuing south... it is at this point that I may add another short to the exsting.
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  • #26,593
  • May 10, 2012 5:14am May 10, 2012 5:14am
I see very little to support a move back over the 1.30 mark for any considerable amount of time.

If the 23.6 FE gives way, it's take your pick for the next support, but I would be favouring the 1.21 level.

Similar to EG, if this FE level gives way, I will be looking for a retrace back up the FE to test for resistance, and then may take a short if the fallback occurs.


Yes, I'm trying to position trade, and so have to exercise patience.
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  • #26,594
  • May 10, 2012 6:13am May 10, 2012 6:13am
just so you know i tend to hit and run so have already closed out.

overall i think the bb put is keeping US indexes up but the better trades have been shorting the european indexes especially Italy's

Condor does great charts, i agree.

Quoting danc
Thks for reply...
And above.charts.. EUGBP.. incredible att to detail.. so clear.. open my eyes..like a picture show..thks
  • #26,595
  • May 10, 2012 6:53am May 10, 2012 6:53am
...now all he has to do is make use of them.

EG tapping that FE level again... Come on, break it and retest so I can add to the shorts...

Quoting roro53
...Condor does great charts, i agree.
Author of: For Pip's Sake! (Available at Amazon... :-) )
  • #26,596
  • May 10, 2012 7:13am May 10, 2012 7:13am
Quoting roro53
just so you know i tend to hit and run so have already closed out.

overall i think the bb put is keeping US indexes up but the better trades have been shorting the european indexes especially Italy's

Condor does great charts, i agree.
Hit and run ... MM yeah me 2.. goes my way i say thank you ..and see ya.. did it with the Aussie tday.. or should i say..t tday my time..
  • #26,597
  • May 10, 2012 7:22am May 10, 2012 7:22am
your 1.21 got my attention......see what BiggestBalls has to tell everyone this morning about the next QE or nothing.

i have to be out so flat again but 1.21 is scary........there are several things that appear off kilter here;

the BOJ did a massive direct buy beginning of the week and the the Nikki and Yen went the wrong way

the very limited shelf life of LTROs as told by Spain's and Italy's equity indexes

all eyes on BB for plan B

1.21 implies a collapse of not just the Euro but also equities and gold and if the CRASH comes then what next?.........rationalization of debt, so lots of wholesale writeoffs and neutered central banks

Quoting 45Condor
...now all he has to do is make use of them.

EG tapping that FE level again... Come on, break it and retest so I can add to the shorts...
  • #26,598
  • May 10, 2012 7:23am May 10, 2012 7:23am
...I try to trade between fib levels/swings between major S&R levels.

Stops at BE now, and sucking those boys in and hoping that they're so hard that one could be forgiven for thinking that they are made of steel.
Author of: For Pip's Sake! (Available at Amazon... :-) )
  • #26,599
  • May 10, 2012 7:41am May 10, 2012 7:41am
Quoting roro53
agree that USD runs and GLD collapses then it is shit hits the fan big time for politicians and central banks.......long Dow and Nikki so maybe a spike on UST to 1.60(yield) but again just more negative yield and biggestBalls has a BIG put out in the market and that will be VERY HARD to live down if it fails......

anointed one speaks tomorrow and if only for a quick trade kind of doubt the 'market' insults the savoir before the speech so long looks like the easy mo.

there are however holes in the boat
Hi Mate,

Lol well whe will see if they print like idiots if so probally 21st june whe wpuld know more or maybe today.

This is my thoughts right now on the sentiment.


European political and economic fears continue to plague the us equity markets. The S&P 500 has dropped 50 points since last week on France and Greek elections, U.S. economic fears, and continuing debt fears around the globe. Fears that the U.S. may be entering a soft patch as also sent money moving into the bond market and out of risk on assets.

Bond Market- The bond market has seen consistent inflows as global economic worries continue to dominate the headlines. Although U.S. treasuries are yielding very low interest rates, investors and traders flock to them to capture at least some yield.

I personally believe that inflows into the bond market should taper off in the next few years and we could enter a bear market in bonds. As the U.S. gradually recovers, the fed will have to raise interest rates, and investors will flock to riskier assets. Chart below on the treusuries a bind trader i know a good 1 sended me this 1.

Stock Market- The U.S. equity market has been seeing outflows in the past two weeks as global economic fears have seeped into riskier assets. Although the U.S. stock market may be the safest place to put money in global equities, it too is risky enough to cause selling.
I think we should see a further sell off in the next few weeks in the U.S. stock market as global fears are too great right now. Technically, we are also overbought and so I expect to see a sell off to shake out the weaker longs. After the pullback is complete however, I think we should see another rally in equities as the central banks continue to support them.'

Myself i have no macro positions on right now yself i am currently long crude oil,silver short eur/aud and long some es for a bounce.
In eu i am currently flat nothing on cl i am watching i move to 100.50 or if it provides earlier signs of weakness i am out.


Here below the chart that bond guy sended me with idea.

Also i added the fomc projections from last time more agree on rate hikes maybe in 2015 or even earlier whe will see but they changing.

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File Type: pdf fomcprojtabl20120425.pdf   135 KB | 227 downloads
  • #26,600
  • May 10, 2012 7:44am May 10, 2012 7:44am
Mario is almost out of plastic coins for the machine, and the Spanish Government have stepped in to nationalize Bankia bank - a major Caja- whilst allowing Santander not to participate in any further stress tests - believing that bank when it states that it has done more than enough to satisfy the markets. Just before the share prices for banks and level of the bourse for Spain dropped off.

Now the Spanish government is finding larger than previous expect holes in the balance sheets of Bankia... fancy that.

Can yu imagine what would happen if the truth was revealed - publically that is, as I think that the market already knows - as to the state of Santander. Pff, call in the government administrators, and Europe collapses.

Yep, I think it is going to be a long Summer of chaos and controlled - as much as possible - decline for the Euro and indices. Of course, that assumes that no more money can be stolen from the public to pay to keep back this, well, quite frankly, shit storm looming on the horizon.

Cannot recall the chap's name, but a much renowned Elliot Wave analyst predicts that 2016 will see a deep depression - globally. I happen to thing that the last year or so we have been slowly moving around the corner and into this road, and if the powers that be continue to rape the public to protect themselves and their masters, we may well be on our way.

...but don't listen to a grumpy old fart like me. You kids go out and party.

Quoting roro53
your 1.21 got my attention......see what BiggestBalls has to tell everyone this morning about the next QE or nothing.

i have to be out so flat again but 1.21 is scary........there are several things that appear off kilter here;

the BOJ did a massive direct buy beginning of the week and the the Nikki and Yen went the wrong way

the very limited shelf life of LTROs as told by Spain's and Italy's equity indexes

all eyes on BB for plan B

1.21 implies a collapse of not just the Euro but also equities and gold and if the CRASH...
Author of: For Pip's Sake! (Available at Amazon... :-) )
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