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Extreme TMA System

  • #10,441
  • Edited 6:03am May 9, 2012 4:40am | Edited 6:03am
Today Read,
Seems like Greece is the issue today
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/currencies/
http://online.wsj.com/public/page/ne...s-trading.html
http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/23325...#axzz1uMYm2XIk
http://www.ft.com/intl/markets/currencies

Spot Gold

The spot gold market fell dramatically lower today after the inside bar strategy from yesterday broke lower. Price also broke and closed below the key $1625.00 support level, opening up the door for a re-test of the long-term support near $1522.00. Traders can look to sell on rotations back up to the key breakdown level / resistance near $1625.00, pending intra-day or daily price action confirmation.
http://clip2net.com/s/1TFdL

EUR/USD
The Candle that closed yesterday NY EST time broke the neckline i don't know about you guys but i'm waiting for a close below the last bullish pinbar that formed on monday to go short.

Thank you and have a good day.
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Master Your Setup, Master Your self. (NQoos)
  • #10,442
  • May 9, 2012 4:40am May 9, 2012 4:40am
eur usd 9 may 2012.jpg
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  • #10,443
  • May 9, 2012 5:04am May 9, 2012 5:04am
AL please Take a look @ this beauty. The retest before the storm.
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Master Your Setup, Master Your self. (NQoos)
  • #10,444
  • May 9, 2012 5:55am May 9, 2012 5:55am
Quoting Alorente
I no longer believe the Euro can drop like it should. There is too much interest to keep it high in three countries: China, Japan and the US. It is obvious something is going on behind the scenes to keep it around 1.3000. Europe is the number one exporting market for all three and their economies are relying on exports to them to continue. Whether the intervention is at government level or not is hard to say, but it is going on and it is futile to fight it. Barring a complete catastrophe in Europe, I believe this area (1.2975 to 1.3000) should hold....
Hello Al

Looking at the Daily 200ma and the Coral are indicating a fall, there seems like support around 1.2950 area. The 4hr however is showing signs of positive diveregence as is the trix.

Aj1
  • #10,445
  • May 9, 2012 7:30am May 9, 2012 7:30am
Quoting Alorente
I no longer believe the Euro can drop like it should. There is too much interest to keep it high in three countries: China, Japan and the US. It is obvious something is going on behind the scenes to keep it around 1.3000. Europe is the number one exporting market for all three and their economies are relying on exports to them to continue...Barring a complete catastrophe in Europe, I believe this area (1.2975 to 1.3000)...
I think that you are so right on! There are some other interesting reasons to think that it will not behave as it should mentioned in the article "Is The Eurozone Too Big To Fail?" by Barbara Rockefeller, page 10 of the May issue of Currency Trader Magazine.

She points out that, although the EZ's in denial, it's already in fiscal crisis, as shown by the involvement of the IMF (which only comes on the scene when countries are already in crisis.)

Apparently, those in power would rather "pretend and extend" than take the political heat for causing the pain involved.

Instead, the power brokers around the globe, as Al mentions, are betting, that if they work together (and that Keynes is right - the "animal spirits" will reassert themselves), that the economy will be able to grow it's way out of the crisis, making them all look like geniuses! Nice, but highly unlikely!

The Eurozone has nearly 800 billion EURs in reserves, which thoretically could be pledged as collateral for a loan. But that won't happen, according to the author, for fear of political uproar.

"The Eurozone is unwilling to take the recommendations of economists and economic historians everywhere: devalue the Euro....cut interest rates below everyone else’s, which today means zero. But the ECB is unwilling to cut rates because Eurozone inflation — today at about 2.3-2.4 percent, though falling — is above...2 percent. Germany opposes a Eurobond, another confidence-building idea."

"One reason not to devalue the Euro is hardly spoken of: European banks have to deleverage and sell assets to the tune of about €2.8 trillion in the coming few years to meet new capital requirements.
Who will buy an asset denominated in a falling currency or invest in banks whose chief asset is iffy sovereign bonds, especially those financed by the ECB for only three years? And that’s without considering contracting economies that should raise non-performing loans by a large amount..."

"Many international financial analysts are becoming increasingly unwilling to buy into 'too big to fail.'...The Europeans know what to do — devalue — and they won’t do it. The Europeans won’t spend their savings, and they would rather borrow from others than make any politically dangerous sacrifices."

"Why would the market not force a devaluation on the Euro if that’s what it takes to restore balance? This may seem like a nifty idea but traders are profit-maximizers, not economic optimizers...." (Take that Goldman Sachs! So much for self-regulating markets!)

In the chart below from June 2006 to April 2012 the linear regression (nearly horizontal purple line) intersects price at 1.3750. If the wedge pattern doesn't breakout before the apex, it could be 2014 before it breaks out.

"A big-picture breakout to the downside would be required to suggest the market is obeying some natural instinct to devalue the Euro, and that doesn’t happen until about 1.2930 and would not be confirmed until the previous lowest low (from May 2010) at 1.2143. This is what "should" happen, not what will happen, for the greater good of the European and global economy."

Will all the EZ reserves be gone by 2014? Will the EZ even make it to 2014? Will I even make it to 2014, come to think of it?

http://www.currencytradermag.com/downloads/index.php






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  • #10,446
  • May 9, 2012 7:32am May 9, 2012 7:32am
Quoting Dr_hodhod
Thank U Mr Alorente .

I read It & understanded it . but what about the repainting of TMA Slope . how can I avoid false signals . as yesterday the colour was turning red then grey & I get confused .

when to pull the trigger ? ? ? what is the sure sign for TMA Slope ?? ?
There is no sure sign. With practice you will anticipate where TMA repaints. Stiil, this system excels in a ranging market. In a strong trending market like the one we have today, you will consistently get early signals.
Observation is the path to discovery.
  • #10,447
  • May 9, 2012 7:35am May 9, 2012 7:35am
Quoting imbonitore
To Play Greek poker with a French Joker




It will likely be impossible to form a Greek government based on “YES” to the bailout plan the previous Greek government signed off for. The reason is simply that there is a majority in the new Greek parliament for saying “NO” to this agreement.
The troika is then faced with the question of whether they still want to provide funding to Greece on terms which will have to be different than those earlier agreed.
Ahead of the EU summit later this month we will either have...
Isn´t this guy the genius that is always right and said that the Euro was going higher because the Big Money was behind it? Well, so far I think his Big Money is running for cover...
Observation is the path to discovery.
  • #10,448
  • May 9, 2012 7:39am May 9, 2012 7:39am
Quoting bassramy
Today Read,
Seems like Greece is the issue today
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/currencies/
http://online.wsj.com/public/page/ne...s-trading.html
http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/23325...#axzz1uMYm2XIk
http://www.ft.com/intl/markets/currencies

Spot Gold

The spot gold market fell dramatically lower today after the inside bar strategy from yesterday broke lower. Price also broke and closed below the key $1625.00 support level, opening up the door for a re-test...
I covered my shorts with a good profit yesterday at 1.2978 and like you, I am now waiting to see how we close to decide if I jump in again. I will only do it on a considerable pullback to at least the neckline. Preferably to close the gap at 1.3080.
Observation is the path to discovery.
  • #10,449
  • May 9, 2012 7:43am May 9, 2012 7:43am
Quoting bassramy
AL please Take a look @ this beauty. The retest before the storm.
I know. Trust me, I´m all over it. I´ve already traded it 6 times in the past 3 days. If there is a pair I really know well, it is UJ. I´m going to have a lot of fun with this baby in the next few months.

It´s great to have the bonus of a possible Ministry of Finance intervention while you sleep. I´ve already enjoyed that beautiful experience twice.
Observation is the path to discovery.
  • #10,450
  • May 9, 2012 7:46am May 9, 2012 7:46am
Quoting Aj1
Hello Al

Looking at the Daily 200ma and the Coral are indicating a fall, there seems like support around 1.2950 area. The 4hr however is showing signs of positive diveregence as is the trix.

Aj1
At this point, I simply don´t trust this animal. Anything can happen depending on who blabbers what in Europe. I am on the sidelines till I see a retest or close of the gap at 1.3080.
Observation is the path to discovery.
  • #10,451
  • May 9, 2012 7:50am May 9, 2012 7:50am
Quoting Aj1
Hello Al

Looking at the Daily 200ma and the Coral are indicating a fall, there seems like support around 1.2950 area. The 4hr however is showing signs of positive diveregence as is the trix.

Aj1
With reference to what you said of the Coral and 200 MA predicting a fall, indeed they are, but not quite yet. The Coral needs to get closer to the 200 MA And if you look at the 60th and 200th bars, they are pointing higher for the next few days, so shorting here is a bit crazy. I feel there will be one more up move to 1.3050 to 1.3200 range before the collapse, but in reality, who knows? This thing is completely manipulated right now. Better to focus on other pairs like UJ.
Observation is the path to discovery.
  • #10,452
  • May 9, 2012 7:57am May 9, 2012 7:57am
Quoting Ever E. Man
I think that you are so right on! There are some other interesting reasons to think that it will not behave as it should mentioned in the article "Is The Eurozone Too Big To Fail?" by Barbara Rockefeller, page 10 of the May issue of Currency Trader Magazine.

She points out that, although the EZ's in denial, it's already in fiscal crisis, as shown by the involvement of the IMF (which only comes on the scene when countries are already in crisis.)

[size=2][size=2]Apparently, those in power would rather "pretend and extend" than take...
Great words as usual coming from you. Whether the EZ fails or not, it really doesn´t make any difference, The reality is already written in stone. Europe is in for a lost decade or worse, a lost generation, They didn´t learn a thing from the Japanese, "sweep it under the rug" fiasco.

I feel really bad for the millions of young ones who will be affected by this for the rest of their lives.
Observation is the path to discovery.
  • #10,453
  • May 9, 2012 8:16am May 9, 2012 8:16am
EurUsd is now touching the bottom Daily TMA band. Every time EU does this it tends to be repelled pretty violently to the center line, which right now is at 1.3185 and happens to coincide with the Coral (Coincidence?). EU can still drop a bit, but there is a danger of a strong snap back here to the Coral in the next few days. Be careful with the short side until you get the move to center line.
Observation is the path to discovery.
  • #10,454
  • May 9, 2012 8:26am May 9, 2012 8:26am
the break is in process let's wait and see how NY will deal with this. Important : http://www.forexfactory.com/news.php?do=news&id=361052 http://www.forexfactory.com/news.php?do=news&id=361049
Master Your Setup, Master Your self. (NQoos)
  • #10,455
  • May 9, 2012 8:27am May 9, 2012 8:27am
UsdJpy is looking better and better. Here is the Daily chart. Notice the Bullish divergence on the Trix. Also look at the 60th bar (Vertical dotted line) and the bars following it. They move very steeply upward. This will lend support to price during the next couple of weeks. The yellow horizontal line is the 61.8% Fib retracement which marks the lowest point I expect UJ to drop to, if it drops any more.

Things are looking up for UJ.
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Observation is the path to discovery.
  • #10,456
  • May 9, 2012 8:40am May 9, 2012 8:40am
With reference to what you said of the Coral and 200 MA predicting a fall, indeed they are, but not quite yet. The Coral needs to get closer to the 200 MA And if you look at the 60th and 200th bars, they are pointing higher for the next few days, so shorting here is a bit crazy. I feel there will be one more up move to 1.3050 to 1.3200 range before the collapse, but in reality, who knows? This thing is completely manipulated right now. Better to focus on other pairs like UJ.


I certainly would not short here, bottom of both the 4hr and the 1hr, I am too looking for it to head higher, then have a look for another opportunity.

Aj1
  • #10,457
  • May 9, 2012 8:56am May 9, 2012 8:56am
Check out the similarity between today´s EurUsd and last June. Notice how in both situations we broke the neckline after an extensive consolidation. As you can see, last June (A) it was followed by a strong up move and after a few weeks, a complete collapse. It is very likely that we are going to get something like that on this occasion.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurusd - A.jpg Size: 164 KB
Attached Image
Observation is the path to discovery.
  • #10,458
  • Edited 2:37pm May 9, 2012 10:47am | Edited 2:37pm
http://<a href="http://www.myfxbook....lor=red"/></a>http://online.wsj.com/article/BT-CO-...09-713273.html
Follow me to the Promised Land
  • #10,459
  • May 9, 2012 11:24am May 9, 2012 11:24am
Quoting xlitang
http://online.wsj.com/article/BT-CO-...09-713273.html
EXACLY WHAT WE'VE BEEN TALKING ABOUT LAST 3-4 WEEKS.BIG BOYS WITH DEEP DEEP POCKETS. More news : http://www.forexfactory.com/news.php?do=news&id=361091 http://www.forexfactory.com/news.php?do=news&id=361083
Master Your Setup, Master Your self. (NQoos)
  • #10,460
  • May 9, 2012 12:38pm May 9, 2012 12:38pm
Quoting Alorente
Check out the similarity between today´s EurUsd and last June. Notice how in both situations we broke the neckline after an extensive consolidation. As you can see, last June (A) it was followed by a strong up move and after a few weeks, a complete collapse. It is very likely that we are going to get something like that on this occasion.
I'm wondering if the technicals apply to a manipulated market, or perhaps, they need to be applied differently.

My feel is that, if I had deep pockets and lots of buddies with the same, this would be a great place for a short squeeze to load up on inventory to sell on the way down.

Near the bottom, I would just keep selling short to drive the price into overbought territory, knowing that I would create a bounce provided by the bottom fishers that were watching their oscillators plunge into oversold territory, and buy to close as it rebounded.

What would you do?
The mind thinks, the heart knows...
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