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The life of a trading system on Forex Factory

  • #1,681
  • May 8, 2012 1:49pm May 8, 2012 1:49pm
Quoting Turveyd
I earn good money, at times but I've got a woman that blows it all on stupid holidays, I spend a lot on Mountainbiking
This is really off topic to the thread, but what the hey, what mountain bike do you have? One of my previous past times was riding my (cheap $200 Odin Storm dual suspension) mountain bike around the suburbs and to and fro work, I literally wore it out (tyres, wheel hubs, brakes), it's a past time I'd like to pick up again when with a dearer reliable bike.
  • #1,682
  • May 8, 2012 1:50pm May 8, 2012 1:50pm
Yeah, that kind of climbing can be rather expensive. I guess that's why they say most women are like condoms, they spend much more time in your wallet than on your ... ahhem.

Quoting Turveyd
I spend a lot on Mountainbiking and climbing other woman to
forget about tomorrow, just steal away into the night
  • #1,683
  • May 8, 2012 1:52pm May 8, 2012 1:52pm
Quoting iDouble
The system learns as it goes. Which is also one of the reasons why it only generates one (1) trade signal per day. It also has a Targeting System embedded into the Trading System, so they work together. Target (Limit Level) acquisition is tied directly into the historical results of the system and determines where the Limit Level will be for each trade.

The system does not use a Stop, and instead uses a reversal signal to terminate the prior trade. Over time, this translates to approximately one (1) trade per 24 hours, but there can be hold...
Your verging on real AI there ( not that real AI is acheiveable in our life times ).

Won't that make enough money, given that you have enough to make enough money ofcourse, so why are you still going ?? or just a hobby aswell as a cash creator for you.
Nothing to it, but to do it!!! Stick to the plan FOOL!!!!
  • #1,684
  • May 8, 2012 1:54pm May 8, 2012 1:54pm
Quoting spekitox
Yeah, that kind of climbing can be rather expensive. I guess that's why they say most women are like condoms, they spend much more time in your wallet than on your ... ahhem.
  • #1,685
  • May 8, 2012 1:55pm May 8, 2012 1:55pm
Quoting jeanlouie
This is really off topic to the thread, but what the hey, what mountain bike do you have? One of my previous past times was riding my (cheap $200 Odin Storm dual suspension) mountain bike around the suburbs and to and fro work, I literally wore it out (tyres, wheel hubs, brakes), it's a past time I'd like to pick up again when with a dearer reliable bike.
2007 Whyte E5 I picked up 2nd hand barely used for £650 GBP, cracking bike newer forks on it.

and a On One 456 which adds upto more than the 2nd hand E5 cost me.


check e-bay you can get some good bikes for okay money, new bikes and kit these days is just stupidly expensive.
Nothing to it, but to do it!!! Stick to the plan FOOL!!!!
  • #1,686
  • May 8, 2012 1:57pm May 8, 2012 1:57pm
Quoting spekitox
Yeah, that kind of climbing can be rather expensive. I guess that's why they say most women are like condoms, they spend much more time in your wallet than on your ... ahhem.
Down about 4K on this 1 I was after, bailing her out, taking her out and all I've got for my troubles is holding her hand and loads of hugs, got to give them up and become a monk!!
Nothing to it, but to do it!!! Stick to the plan FOOL!!!!
  • #1,687
  • Edited 5:08pm May 8, 2012 2:07pm | Edited 5:08pm
Quoting iDouble
I trade to grow capital. So, if its not about profitability, then I'm in the wrong business. I might as well go start a McDonald's franchise, and put a permanent cap on my revenue.

But, if I don't want a permanent cap on my revenue, then I can see if I am able to develop trade logic that can give me enough of an edge, that allows me to grow capital at a rate that is "unusual" or "unlike" other business models. Otherwise, I can go do something else with my time.

So, I think this entire business is all about growing money, and growing...
Blimey, too complicated for me.

I like to keep it simple, just double my account most weeks, sometimes more, increase the position size as comfort allows.

It works and I know in a few years it will be phenomenal.

I have built many successful businesses from scratch (never start something you don't intend to finish) , trading is the fifth in the last 12 years so I know all about, profitability, planning, setting and achieving goals.
  • #1,688
  • May 8, 2012 2:08pm May 8, 2012 2:08pm
Yeah, holding hands, romantic walks, a nice starter. But not the main course unless you're an OAP or a soon-to-be OAP, if you know what I mean.

Quoting Turveyd
Down about 4K on this 1 I was after, bailing her out, taking her out and all I've got for my troubles is holding her hand and loads of hugs, got to give them up and become a monk!!
forget about tomorrow, just steal away into the night
  • #1,689
  • May 8, 2012 2:10pm May 8, 2012 2:10pm
Quoting pipmutt
...I chose market conditions which suited my analysis style, it wasn't necessary to trade in all market conditions although I'm sure it's perfectly possible.[/quotes]

But, that's my point. If you don't trade through all market conditions, then by definition you are out of the market for periods of time. So, the question is whether or not your method can be used enough times during the course of one (1) trading cycle (defined as a period of revenue generation), to produce enough capital growth for that cycle sufficient to move your total...
It can be very intense. Some people can handle it. I can't see myself trading like that on a consistent basis. I'd personally go nuts.

However, creating a Bot to do that dirty work, is a different story. Of course, you'd be talking about a Scalping Bot and those are not easy to come by.

I'm working on one right now, to see if some of my custom indicator designs have scalp quality, or not and if so, at what interval for profit and within what execution time frame.

The two important components to scalping are making sure that the timing is right, and when the timing is blown, making sure that the direction is correct. So, in theory, Scalping, should be a safer form of trading, but depending on the platform you use, there are other associated strangle points that can turn a good scalp into a net/net loss.

Basically, you need tight spreads, no re-quotes whatsoever, precious little slippage (if any), and a platform that does not widen the spread at or near your exit in the wrong direction. Essentially, if you can successful Scalp a Forex Bucket Shop, then I'd classify you as a Master Scalper.


Quoting pipmutt
I think you're way overcomplicating the whole process (trading) though.
When the market goes through a long period where it couples transition phases and then decouples transition phases - just to the point where trend traders think their next wave is just about to start, you'll see things a bit different at that point.

If you don't have a way to detect that type of market (what call a Type IV Market Environment), you will find out that most Price Action will fail and most Conventional TA will fail, while there won't be any guidance at all from Fundamental analysis. You will need to have some other tools at your disposal, to give you insight into a coupling and decoupling market.


Quoting pipmutt
I conceded that it's difficult to learn and become proficient but it really doesn't require any specialist knowledge, copious testing and re-testing, in-depth understanding or lengthy statistical analysis, or some convoluted strategy. From what I've seen simple can be equally as profitable as complex so what's the benefit of going overboard?
Again, until you define the Revenue Period, you have not defined how consistently profitable gets measured. I've written on this topic at length in this thread. The moment you define the cycle for capital growth, is the moment you awaken to the need to be precise in your trading. Until then, its all just fun and games - like at Vegas! But, once you decide to turn this into a business, and you have to grow capital on a timed basis, things change, attitudes change and eyes get wide open.


Quoting pipmutt
I think some people are convinced that just because the majority fail they somehow need to complicate trading in order to be profitable. From my experience it's really not the case, in fact I'd go so far as to say the opposite is true.
Trading as a hobby is one thing. Trading as a business is something else entirely.
The Event Horizon
  • #1,690
  • May 8, 2012 2:27pm May 8, 2012 2:27pm
Quoting Turveyd
Your verging on real AI there ( not that real AI is acheiveable in our life times ).

Won't that make enough money, given that you have enough to make enough money ofcourse, so why are you still going ?? or just a hobby aswell as a cash creator for you.
How much is enough?

Again, all of my posts here, go right back to the central question: Why am I in this business?

If I can define why I'm in the business, then I can define a specific revenue target per trade and that determines whether I am successful, or not.

So, if my goal is to manage between $2 to $5 billion per day across multiple pairs, and I only have $8,000 to start with and a bunch of 50 year old technical indicators, what on earth do I need to do, in order to grow $8,000 into $5 billion?

The answer to that question determines what I spend my time researching, designing and developing. Likewise, if I'm happy with being able to buy a new Chevy Pick-Up Truck at the end of each year, and I've got that same $8,000 starting point, then that too will define what I study, research and develop.

Your focus will be determined by your goals and your success will be determined by your focus.
The Event Horizon
  • #1,691
  • May 8, 2012 2:44pm May 8, 2012 2:44pm
Quoting iDouble

It can be very intense. Some people can handle it. I can't see myself trading like that on a consistent basis. I'd personally go nuts.
What makes you think I haven't!


Quoting iDouble

I'm working on one right now, to see if some of my custom indicator designs have scalp quality, or not and if so, at what interval for profit and within what execution time frame.
The closest I got was a tool for MT4 to alert when a significant level was approaching, I suppose the next stage would have been to allow it to trade at that level but I think there were far too many variables, some discretionary, it would have been a mammoth task if even practicable. I don't think even AI could be a substitute, not unless it also contained a sixth sense!


Quoting iDouble

The two important components to scalping are making sure that the timing is right, and when the timing is blown, making sure that the direction is correct.....

Basically, you need tight spreads, no re-quotes whatsoever, precious little slippage (if any), and a platform that does not widen the spread at or near your exit in the wrong direction. Essentially, if you can successful Scalp a Forex Bucket Shop, then I'd classify you as a Master Scalper.
Bucket shops were the only obvious choice, instant fills, no slippage, no requotes, smoothed price feed, sugar coated for the retail trader albeit totally false trading/market conditions. Of course they also had the benefit of being able to reverse trades on a whim, they weren't completely stupid. Times have changed un/fortunately, besides I'm getting too old for that shit now lol


Quoting iDouble

When the market goes through a long period where it couples transition phases and then decouples transition phases....most Price Action will fail and most Conventional TA will fail
Unless we've looked at every type of PA and TA then I think it would be hard to come to the conclusion that 'most' will fail.


Quoting iDouble

Trading as a hobby is one thing. Trading as a business is something else entirely.
Agreed.
  • #1,692
  • May 8, 2012 4:53pm May 8, 2012 4:53pm
Quoting iDouble
How much is enough?

Again, all of my posts here, go right back to the central question: Why am I in this business?

If I can define why I'm in the business, then I can define a specific revenue target per trade and that determines whether I am successful, or not.

So, if my goal is to manage between $2 to $5 billion per day across multiple pairs, and I only have $8,000 to start with and a bunch of 50 year old technical indicators, what on earth do I need to do, in order to grow $8,000 into $5 billion?

The answer to that question...
Haha, big talk. Nice try. BS
  • #1,693
  • May 8, 2012 5:27pm May 8, 2012 5:27pm
Quoting spekitox
Yeah, holding hands, romantic walks, a nice starter. But not the main course unless you're an OAP or a soon-to-be OAP, if you know what I mean.

It's always the 1 you can't have you want the most Life!! WOMAN!!
Nothing to it, but to do it!!! Stick to the plan FOOL!!!!
  • #1,694
  • May 8, 2012 5:35pm May 8, 2012 5:35pm
Quoting iDouble
How much is enough?

Again, all of my posts here, go right back to the central question: Why am I in this business?

If I can define why I'm in the business, then I can define a specific revenue target per trade and that determines whether I am successful, or not.

So, if my goal is to manage between $2 to $5 billion per day across multiple pairs, and I only have $8,000 to start with and a bunch of 50 year old technical indicators, what on earth do I need to do, in order to grow $8,000 into $5 billion?

The answer to that question determines...

8K to 5Bil, why do you need to be that rich for starters, it might be possible but cracking how to live to 5000 is where I'd start if I was you cause thats how long it'll take.

I still don't believe EA's can long term work and I won't until I see it.
Nothing to it, but to do it!!! Stick to the plan FOOL!!!!
  • #1,695
  • May 8, 2012 6:36pm May 8, 2012 6:36pm
Quoting iDouble
I'm working on one right now, to see if some of my custom indicator designs have scalp quality, or not and if so, at what interval for profit and within what execution time frame.
If all your "custom" indicators are based directly on price they will eventually fail at some point.

Quoting iDouble
If you don't have a way to detect that type of market (what call a Type IV Market Environment)
How many "Types" of market environments do you classify? I go for the old stand by - Trend and Consolidation.

Quoting iDouble
Trading as a hobby is one thing. Trading as a business is something else entirely.
The only thing I actually agree with you on.
Mark ... Everything you have been told is a LIE
  • #1,696
  • May 8, 2012 6:43pm May 8, 2012 6:43pm
Quoting spzd
If all your "custom" indicators are based directly on price they will eventually fail at some point.



How many "Types" of market environments do you classify? I go for the old stand by - Trend and Consolidation.



The only thing I actually agree with you on.

Nothing wrong with an old fashioned 9sma price cross, only indicator needed.

If you want to get technical, there are loads of types with subtle differences, 3 months back the market would drop 50pips quick then reverse it all, I was milking it with a near 100% success rate, these days fast down continues down and same method = hard losses.

Been running a business for 17years I don't like the idea of trading becoming a business, there is no way it'll ever be as hard as running a business, for starters no human interaction required AWESOME!!
Nothing to it, but to do it!!! Stick to the plan FOOL!!!!
  • #1,697
  • May 8, 2012 7:17pm May 8, 2012 7:17pm
Quoting Turveyd
Nothing wrong with an old fashioned 9sma price cross, only indicator needed.
Basic indicators do and have worked for ages. But not flawlessly. When people mention "custom" indicators they are usually inferring a superior indicator.

Quoting Turveyd
If you want to get technical, there are loads of types with subtle differences, 3 months back the market would drop 50pips quick then reverse it all, I was milking it with a near 100% success rate, these days fast down continues down and same method = hard losses.
Trend and Consolidation. That's all there is. Those 50 pip drops more than likely occurred in trend. A 50 pip drop while in a trend does not, in and of itself, negate the trend.

Quoting Turveyd
Been running a business for 17years I don't like the idea of trading becoming a business, there is no way it'll ever be as hard as running a business, for starters no human interaction required AWESOME!!
Never ran a business like a lot of you, but I make my living trading. Hence I run it in a business like fashion.
Mark ... Everything you have been told is a LIE
  • #1,698
  • May 8, 2012 10:09pm May 8, 2012 10:09pm
Quoting spzd

How many "Types" of market environments do you classify? I go for the old stand by - Trend and Consolidation.
I'm not sure but is that what he means when he says 'couples transition phases and then decouples transition phases' and 'coupling and decoupling market'?

I agree, trend and consolidation seem to me to be the only two market conditions and it's relatively simple to identify either, except not so easy to anticipate where each might start and end! I guess 'trading in the now' somewhat solves that problem!
  • #1,699
  • May 8, 2012 10:11pm May 8, 2012 10:11pm
Quoting Turveyd

8K to 5Bil......it might be possible but cracking how to live to 5000 is where I'd start if I was you cause thats how long it'll take.
lol, hardly! Tell me, have you just landed here from another planet?


Quoting Turveyd

Been running a business for 17years
Is it as 'successful' as your trading career to date?
  • #1,700
  • May 8, 2012 10:22pm May 8, 2012 10:22pm
Quoting pipmutt
I'm not sure but is that what he means when he says 'couples transition phases and then decouples transition phases' and 'coupling and decoupling market'?

I agree, trend and consolidation seem to me to be the only two market conditions and it's relatively simple to identify either, except not so easy to anticipate where each might start and end! I guess 'trading in the now' somewhat solves that problem!
Sounds as if he's talking about hooking and unhooking rail cars.
Mark ... Everything you have been told is a LIE
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