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AUD/USD

  • #44,081
  • May 8, 2012 7:28pm May 8, 2012 7:28pm
Quoting MitchL
...I can find which way it is going more often than not.. now i need to work out when it is stopping
did u load up those indicators i mentioned before? or you not into indicators? i find them very helpfull to find reversal points an S/R lines
  • #44,082
  • May 8, 2012 7:33pm May 8, 2012 7:33pm
I've gone long on the pair, as I expect the rate to rise. I don't know if any of you have read through the budget papers, but from an economic growth perspective it's very positive news.

I'm expecting a stable 1.05 over the next few weeks.
  • #44,083
  • May 8, 2012 7:35pm May 8, 2012 7:35pm
Quoting Noobicle
did u load up those indicators i mentioned before? or you not into indicators? i find them very helpfull to find reversal points an S/R lines

yeah i did.. I sent you a PM also mate

Thanks
  • #44,084
  • May 8, 2012 7:36pm May 8, 2012 7:36pm
for tomorrow, im considering opening a lot of different positions (will basically hedge everyone) with a s/p of around 15-20pip with no t/p. with all that is being released movement of 100pips plus is expected i think. has anyone tried something similar?
  • #44,085
  • May 8, 2012 7:59pm May 8, 2012 7:59pm
Quoting MitchL
yeah i did.. I sent you a PM also mate

Thanks
oh, hehe im hardly on that page but yeah if u have those indis loaded up, u can see on the 4h that 2/4 of them were lined up an gave a short signal, also to confirm that was the expectations of poor aud data, yet i diddnt take it because i was in a bull mindframe an was hoping for more, even on the long move before that 4/4 were lined up an that was the golden 100pips, just be carefull because they can both bottom out an top out for a while before retracing, but i still have much to learn an how to read them better, they are just tools to help, theres still alot i take into account to confirm the move (maybe too much) but im learning better execution ideas everyday, trying to sharpen my stradegy
  • #44,086
  • May 8, 2012 8:05pm May 8, 2012 8:05pm
Quoting chiRal
I've gone long on the pair, as I expect the rate to rise. I don't know if any of you have read through the budget papers, but from an economic growth perspective it's very positive news.

I'm expecting a stable 1.05 over the next few weeks.
From what I read they also are fighting a high currency... it is affecting their exports.
  • #44,087
  • May 8, 2012 8:18pm May 8, 2012 8:18pm
Quoting chiRal
I've gone long on the pair, as I expect the rate to rise. I don't know if any of you have read through the budget papers, but from an economic growth perspective it's very positive news.

I'm expecting a stable 1.05 over the next few weeks.
chiRal,

As I wrote yesterday the budget has NEGATIVE impact on AUD:

Returning the federal budget to surplus will put downward pressure on the Australian dollar and it will lead to lower interest rates.
The government's commitment to cut spending and return to surplus would hurt economic growth and so, it adds to the case for further interest rate cuts.
Lower interest rates and a reduction in federal government borrowing reduces the inflow of foreign capital into Australia and puts downward pressure on the Australian dollar.

also this just came out from our PM:
AUSTRALIAN PM GILLARD: Return to budget surplus provides RBA with "maximum room to move" on further loosening
Expect the unexpected.
  • #44,088
  • May 8, 2012 8:19pm May 8, 2012 8:19pm
Hallelujah thank you Julia for making the Aussie drop even further ...
  • #44,089
  • May 8, 2012 8:21pm May 8, 2012 8:21pm
Quoting Mpx
Hallelujah thank you Julia for making the Aussie drop even further ...
She's a beautiful woman alright
FF journal: Peaks and Troffs
  • #44,090
  • May 8, 2012 8:26pm May 8, 2012 8:26pm
Quoting fx-rocket
chiRal,

As I wrote yesterday the budget has NEGATIVE impact on AUD:
do u think they will actually cut the rates given the economy is in such a ''healthy'' condition? what do the interest rate boses have to gain from doing that? curious..

is aud just relying on china?
  • #44,091
  • May 8, 2012 8:30pm May 8, 2012 8:30pm
Quoting Noobicle
do u think they will actually cut the rates given the economy is in such a ''healthy'' condition? what do the interest rate boses have to gain from doing that? curious..
it's the same reaction as any QE3 talk in the US. Even if they don't actually cut the rates or implement QE, the market takes this information as already assuming they will. If and when they actually do, the move itself won't result in much change.
  • #44,092
  • May 8, 2012 8:31pm May 8, 2012 8:31pm
Quoting fx-rocket
chiRal,

As I wrote yesterday the budget has NEGATIVE impact on AUD:

Returning the federal budget to surplus will put downward pressure on the Australian dollar and it will lead to lower interest rates.
The government's commitment to cut spending and return to surplus would hurt economic growth and so, it adds to the case for further interest rate cuts.
Lower interest rates and a reduction in federal government borrowing reduces the inflow of foreign capital into Australia and puts downward pressure on the Australian dollar.

also this just...

fx-rocket,

Your view on the budget is very simplistic, and you draw inferences based on those simplistic assumptions. The federal budget did lead to a cut in spending, however this is more reflected within the public sector rather than the private.

As an example, I'd like to point to the increase in deficit from budget 2011 to MYEFO (mid November) from $22bn to $37bn. The deficit since then has only increase by $7bn to $44bn. You may of also noticed that the Treasurer announced an ease on the carbon tax - which affects Australias biggest industry (the mining industry).

I see growth for the Australian economy, and given that the government wants to close this $44bn gap within 12 months (to achieve a surplus), I don't see why they wouldn't incentivize businesses to grow, as higher business activity leads to more revenue for the government. (Along with greater imports and foreign investment).
  • #44,093
  • May 8, 2012 8:43pm May 8, 2012 8:43pm
how can anyone like this ranga! sorry if i offered i anyone.
  • #44,094
  • May 8, 2012 8:45pm May 8, 2012 8:45pm
Quoting tigershin
how can anyone like this ranga! sorry if i offered i anyone.
She's more "Strawberry Blonde"
FF journal: Peaks and Troffs
  • #44,095
  • May 8, 2012 8:47pm May 8, 2012 8:47pm
Quoting bogus
She's a beautiful woman alright
Hahaha she is Bogus ... beauty comes in many ways
  • #44,096
  • May 8, 2012 8:52pm May 8, 2012 8:52pm
Boys you all know she is G a y not withstanding the male for show only partner. Sorry to dissappoint you. Anyway Australia's worst Prime Minister ever has done a reasonable job of the budget as far as Politicians are allowed to. Aussie economy is too strong for even idiot polis to ruin, we will head up even if we drop to US par again for a short time.
-V-
  • #44,097
  • May 8, 2012 8:53pm May 8, 2012 8:53pm
Quoting chiRal
fx-rocket,

Your view on the budget is very simplistic, and you draw inferences based on those simplistic assumptions. The federal budget did lead to a cut in spending, however this is more reflected within the public sector rather than the private.

As an example, I'd like to point to the increase in deficit from budget 2011 to MYEFO (mid November) from $22bn to $37bn. The deficit since then has only increase by $7bn to $44bn. You may of also noticed that the Treasurer announced an ease on the carbon tax - which affects Australias biggest industry...
The information that the release of the Australian budget contains holds a lot of information.
It is in my interest as a currency trader to analyse the implications of such a release and the effect it will have IN THE RELATIVE SHORT TERM (In my case around 1-3 months) on the AUD so that I can benefit from it.

I beleive that our currency will fall to 0.9860 in this timeframe, and I base this on my "simplistic" view which I have deciphered from the budget and I willl continue to sell into rallies until I see 0.9860.
When that is accieved I will probably pause, and then I will not be surprised if I will be starting to build long positions.

This just my view at the moment and I accept if it turns out to be wrong.

I wish you good and profitable trades and I think weather you are long or short, we all can make money, its' all in the timing!
Expect the unexpected.
  • #44,098
  • May 8, 2012 8:59pm May 8, 2012 8:59pm
This is like the Limbo Rock; how low can you go? http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon9.gif
  • #44,099
  • May 8, 2012 9:03pm May 8, 2012 9:03pm
I've got 2/3rds off already, with a final TP of parity and see how she plays out an then pick an entry.
FF journal: Peaks and Troffs
  • #44,100
  • May 8, 2012 9:06pm May 8, 2012 9:06pm
Quoting jerrycollie
This is like the Limbo Rock; how low can you go? http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon9.gif
hehe that comment reminded me of this song (dont play if your oldie)thanks

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