tiger why are you adding longs now when you can get it at a better price bellow? just curious to see if you have a certain distance between each position
tiger why are you adding longs now when you can get it at a better price bellow? just curious to see if you have a certain distance between each position
Ignored
not much better from my analysis, i dont want to miss my entry. i could be terribly wrong but she should blow soon? and move around 60 pips i think(hope).
i see. Yeah i just closed my short i don't know if i need more patience for her to break bellow or im just on my toes because i took a hit earlier on the cable.
2012/05/08 10:55:00AUD/USD-Bank strategists bearish, black boxes more so Thomson Reuters Story
Another day when the story writes itself; inbox full of bearish Aussie and Kiwi reports; excellent write up from Standard Bank Ltd. "Watch the Aussie & Kiwi" Steven Barrow notes "The Aussie and the Kiwi look very vulnerable and may even have a bearing on how other currencies move, especially those with a commodity bias. We expect the Aussie to slip to 95 cents against the US dollar over the next six months with the NZ dollar possibly eyeing a fall to 70 cents"
Various strategists noted the deteriorating Aussie trade data Global Economic Calendar some commenting how it didn't put a dent in the old Oz on the day, also focus on forecasts for an AUD1.5bn surplus fiscal year 2012/13. The latter however wasn't the positive you would have expected as Treasurer Swan noted a budget surplus will give the RBA flexibility to cut rates.One of the bulge bracket (top 4) FX trading banks noted the fact that GDP f/c for later years were left "unch" (3.25% in 2012/13) unemployment rate rising to 5.5 and concluded it indicates more scope for monetary easing and is therefore marginally negative for the AUD. Our Australia economists expect the cash rate will be 50 bp lower by August."
Another major European bank observed "AUD/USD is still on its way towards parity, as is AUD/CAD; positioning in the NZ Dollar is being cleared (we’re going to watch this one play out)" after reporting earlier "The weakness in exports is probably down to supply problems in the mining sector more than weakness in export markets, but even so, this will be a drag on Q1 GDP and unless it turns around sharply, a major long-term negative for the currency."
Getting back to Steven Barrow's note "Very often, weakness in currencies such as the Aussie and Kiwi are associated with periods of heightened risk aversion. However, the slide in the two currencies that we have seen recently has not exactly been associated with a surge in risk aversion. Sure, global economic data has been a bit softer but the tensions in the euro zone have eased off a bit. Instead, what’s started to scupper the Australian dollar and New Zealand dollar is that the terms-of-trade justification for overvalued currencies is starting to slip away." The take away from all this is that whilst everyone's watching Europe, Oz and Kiwi are experiencing their own problems.
Funnily enough this all comes on a day when our trusted black box trader warns a major risk off event is about to occur ... last week he wrote "AUDCHF will shortly break dramatically South to plunge to depths it hasn't seen since Lehman. Since CHFJPY is certainly going to fall, and so is CHFUSD, Aussie will shortly suddenly dramatically break South, under the enormous pressure that it's been under for months now to plunge to 0.90, then the low 80s, then lower still. Kiwi is about to do the same - and euro will suddenly plunge, as well." Aussie traders noted last night "Better AUD bids reported at 1.0130", well they've been chewed through; sovereign EUR buyers are resisting this move (notably Middle East names) but falling oil prices are giving them less ammo and the situation in Greece is a tinderbox. AUD buyer beware. @ThomsonReuters.com
last i remembered strong support for aud at parity and 0.98. So if you are hoping for retracement 1,01 is pretty close, but i'll go in at 1.0050, i dont care even if i miss an entry point, coz i like bargains.
[So if all currencies are gioing to plunge as you said, shall we hold timber or tuna cans instead.quote=payal;5648581]2012/05/08 10:55:00 AUD/USD-Bank strategists bearish, black boxes more so Thomson Reuters Story
Another day when the story writes itself; inbox full of bearish Aussie and Kiwi reports; excellent write up from Standard Bank Ltd. "Watch the Aussie & Kiwi" Steven Barrow notes "The Aussie and the Kiwi look very vulnerable and may even have a bearing on how other currencies move, especially those with a commodity bias. We expect the Aussie to slip to 95 cents against the US dollar over the next six months with the NZ dollar possibly eyeing a fall to 70 cents"
Various strategists noted the deteriorating Aussie trade data Global Economic Calendar some commenting how it didn't put a dent in the old Oz on the day, also focus on forecasts for an AUD1.5bn surplus fiscal year 2012/13. The latter however wasn't the positive you would have expected as Treasurer Swan noted a budget surplus will give the RBA flexibility to cut rates.One of the bulge bracket (top 4) FX trading banks noted the fact that GDP f/c for later years were left "unch" (3.25% in 2012/13) unemployment rate rising to 5.5 and concluded it indicates more scope for monetary easing and is therefore marginally negative for the AUD. Our Australia economists expect the cash rate will be 50 bp lower by August."
Another major European bank observed "AUD/USD is still on its way towards parity, as is AUD/CAD; positioning in the NZ Dollar is being cleared (we’re going to watch this one play out)" after reporting earlier "The weakness in exports is probably down to supply problems in the mining sector more than weakness in export markets, but even so, this will be a drag on Q1 GDP and unless it turns around sharply, a major long-term negative for the currency."
Getting back to Steven Barrow's note "Very often, weakness in currencies such as the Aussie and Kiwi are associated with periods of heightened risk aversion. However, the slide in the two currencies that we have seen recently has not exactly been associated with a surge in risk aversion. Sure, global economic data has been a bit softer but the tensions in the euro zone have eased off a bit. Instead, what’s started to scupper the Australian dollar and New Zealand dollar is that the terms-of-trade justification for overvalued currencies is starting to slip away." The take away from all this is that whilst everyone's watching Europe, Oz and Kiwi are experiencing their own problems.
Funnily enough this all comes on a day when our trusted black box trader warns a major risk off event is about to occur ... last week he wrote "AUDCHF will shortly break dramatically South to plunge to depths it hasn't seen since Lehman. Since CHFJPY is certainly going to fall, and so is CHFUSD, Aussie will shortly suddenly dramatically break South, under the enormous pressure that it's been under for months now to plunge to 0.90, then the low 80s, then lower still. Kiwi is about to do the same - and euro will suddenly plunge, as well." Aussie traders noted last night "Better AUD bids reported at 1.0130", well they've been chewed through; sovereign EUR buyers are resisting this move (notably Middle East names) but falling oil prices are giving them less ammo and the situation in Greece is a tinderbox. AUD buyer beware. @ThomsonReuters.com[/quote]
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Joined Sep 2010
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Status: Who said you can't pick the top
|300 Posts
Long AUD at 1.0115
Exit at 1.0350
SL at 1.0075
Does anyone think that there is a chance that AUD is headed to 1.1100.
Because all we retailers are so short on AUD and we all wanted it to go to .9000
