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Where can I learn more about Price Action like those in James16 charts? 9 replies

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james16 Chart Thread

  • #111,121
  • May 2, 2012 9:33am May 2, 2012 9:33am
Quoting mbqb11
Hey Os

I do pull my orders most of the time 90% i'd say or so. But if the trade story remains in tact then I will leave it. For this one it changed no differently for me so I left my order in(you could even look at it as 12hr buob and then it confirmed too)

Hope that helps
Mike
Thanks for your answer !!

This is how i had my chart.. I was looking for a TP around 0.92 (the higher trendline)

Os.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Trade Smart
  • #111,122
  • May 2, 2012 9:35am May 2, 2012 9:35am
Quoting fxstarterPL
First of all it's my first post here so i'd like to say:

Hello
and of course thank you all for great thread - i'm trying to read it from beginning - still lots of learning

I'd like to ask about trend lines... I think I understand psychological side of price - i understand why there are pivot zones etc.
What can't I understand how is it possible that price bounce from trend line so often? in few examples (for example in Mike's posts) it seems that it happens almost with accuracy of pip...
in major ppz there are almost same level every...
Hallo fxstarter and welcome
  • #111,123
  • May 2, 2012 9:45am May 2, 2012 9:45am
Quoting Osman
Thanks for your answer !!

This is how i had my chart.. I was looking for a TP around 0.92 (the higher trendline)

Os.
looks good Os, this is similar to what I am watching as well

Was almost a sure shot we would get this "burst out" higher once we broke that BUOB but now we have to see if we can sustain higher. Up to the market now

Best
Mike
  • #111,124
  • May 2, 2012 9:47am May 2, 2012 9:47am
Quoting fxstarterPL
First of all it's my first post here so i'd like to say:

Hello
and of course thank you all for great thread - i'm trying to read it from beginning - still lots of learning

I'd like to ask about trend lines... I think I understand psychological side of price - i understand why there are pivot zones etc.
What can't I understand how is it possible that price bounce from trend line so often? in few examples (for example in Mike's posts) it seems that it happens almost with accuracy of pip...
in major ppz there are almost same level...
Welcome starter, glad to have you

It's just time and more time spent learning. Sometimes the stuff is scary accurate and that's what we wait for. The more strong an area/trendline/etc is the better chance you will get a reaction. Then we want to look for the strongest areas and be picky as hell. This is the key

Welcome again
Mike
  • #111,125
  • May 2, 2012 10:05am May 2, 2012 10:05am
Attachment Good morning Mike, (and the other pros like Meshka and Rust)

In your experience, when you see a break of a "rounding bottom" or pitka, would you say there's more than 75% chance that it would hit a 1:1 before bouncing back?

Would love to know what you guys think (purely for educational purposes)

Thanks!!!!!

V
  • #111,126
  • May 2, 2012 10:07am May 2, 2012 10:07am
Quoting Variance
Good morning Mike, (and the other pros like Meshka and Rust)

In your experience, when you see a break of a "rounding bottom" or pitka, would you say there's more than 75% chance that it would hit a 1:1 before bouncing back?

Would love to know what you guys think.

Thanks!!!!!

V
Hey V

I wouldn't really look at it like that. I just look at it as a piece to the puzzle, a possible heads up to look for trades, more confluence etc. Then I would look to manage that trade accordingly. i don't like to lump things into a pile like that, rather I look to build stories

Hope that helps
Mike
  • #111,127
  • May 2, 2012 10:11am May 2, 2012 10:11am
Edit: Ok Would you put it in the same pile as "roughly 60%+"?
  • #111,128
  • May 2, 2012 10:14am May 2, 2012 10:14am
Quoting Variance
Would you put it in the same pile as 60%++?
Hey V

By itself it's just price rounding, that to me isn't enough to say this = X % chance. It's always about the entire situation start to finish for me. That's like a pinbar , by itself the power is much less than when combined with other factors. I wouldn't have data to flat out say this = X% chance based on something just as price rounding. We still need a trade plan, stop losses, trade mgmt etc. So those are the pieces we need to lay out to determine the chances of success

Best
Mike
  • #111,129
  • May 2, 2012 10:17am May 2, 2012 10:17am
Ok, thanks for the responsible answer haha.... I will do some more in-depth live tests before taking any live trades
  • #111,130
  • May 2, 2012 10:30am May 2, 2012 10:30am
Quoting mbqb11
I've been holding a pinbar on the weekly usd/chf for about 40 weeks now. You don't need to pinpoint your entries rather trade the chart as you would any other chart.

Keep things simple it's the best piece of advice I could ever give
Thanks!! I see the allusive A++ PB setup you are talking about lol. I just wanted reassurance that long term trades on PA are legit.

Quoting fxstarterPL
I'd like to ask about trend lines... I think I understand psychological side of price - i understand why there are pivot zones etc.
What can't I understand how is it possible that price bounce from trend line so often?
I'm not exactly sure why either...
From what I can gather, while trend lines may seem like invisible lines that don't really exist (not unlike the equator), they work because they offer support and resistance. I guess, if Fib lines work, then why not trend lines? As long as it works, I don't question it too much lol, partly because it would require much more research I guess... But maybe it has to do with mass market psychology in moving the trend?

"If it were not for the fact that these changing attitudes move in trends and that trends tend to perpetuate, market prices would be nothing more than a random event, which would mean that technicians would be out of business." Martin Pring on Price Patterns

See the graphs below: (note: its not exact...)
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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  • #111,131
  • May 2, 2012 10:40am May 2, 2012 10:40am
Quoting Variance
Attachment Good morning Mike, (and the other pros like Meshka and Rust)

In your experience, when you see a break of a "rounding bottom" or pitka, would you say there's more than 75% chance that it would hit a 1:1 before bouncing back?

Would love to know what you guys think (purely for educational purposes)

Thanks!!!!!

V
Hahaha , putting my name next to Mike's made me laugh . I am years away of his experience , but i am glad that some of you find my posts helpful
Yours are helpful to me for sure .

First , i want to clarify that for me it is very important the shape of any pattern to be clear ! and Pretty ! Like Mike says - to have only one possible way to draw it .

I promise to post more about pitka setup in the future in real time . It's really good

As for expected run - it depends where your trouble areas are ! Watch them , watch how price reacts there ! One of my main troubles in the past was that i wanted a fixed return (1:1 or 1:2 etc). Mechanical exit . This leads into nothing more than missed profits or missed runs Use your brain as much as you can . Market is driven by people , not robots ! So why robotize your trading ?

Here is one example :
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #111,132
  • May 2, 2012 10:51am May 2, 2012 10:51am
Thanks Rust,

I'll definitely consider making a transition to do more trailing
  • #111,133
  • May 2, 2012 10:59am May 2, 2012 10:59am
Quoting Variance
Thanks Rust,

I'll definitely consider making a transition to do more trailing
I didn't mean that trailing is the only option . I know Mike loves it and it works for him . I prefer Take Profits , it works for me at this stage .
What i tried to say is not to put your TP at 1:1 , put it on/around a trouble area ! Because trouble areas reverse the runs , not 1:1 or 2:1 of a pinbar OR ... watch what price is doing there - if it breaks , a perfect location to trail your stop ... if it bounces - a perfect information to be aware and take precaution if price pulls back .
  • #111,134
  • May 2, 2012 11:01am May 2, 2012 11:01am
Quoting Rust

Here is one example :
Attachment
Thanks for the chart, it is of great help

To keep for further notice: do not believe what they say, they either oversimplify ("market is either trending or sideway moving") or "over-complicate" ("you should add these tons of indicators to help you take position").
Keep charts clean and elegant as in this thread.
Slow & steady
  • #111,135
  • May 2, 2012 11:05am May 2, 2012 11:05am
Thanks Rust,

Great advice for ALL of us.

To be real honest with you, I've really been taking 1:1's LOL!!!!!!!!
I do look at FTA but I really like to be OUT quick but I can definitely see (and feel) a transition coming for me - that's why I enjoy looking at your charts as well as Mike's and Meshka's coz you guys really stretch my comfort zone LOL


Quoting Rust
I didn't mean that trailing is the only option . I know Mike loves it and it works for him . I prefer Take Profits , it works for me at this stage .
What i tried to say is not to put your TP at 1:1 , put it on/around a trouble area ! Because trouble areas reverse the runs , not 1:1 or 2:1 of a pinbar OR ... watch what price is doing there - if it breaks , a perfect location to trail your stop ... if it bounces - a perfect information to be aware and take precaution if price pulls back .
  • #111,136
  • Edited 12:30pm May 2, 2012 11:13am | Edited 12:30pm
Quoting Mav13
Thanks for response Quezoy. Well, took me a while to find out something about LCS levels because that is something that was not mentioned in the beginning of this thread, but youīre right that area will be problematic. Itīs just demo trade so no big deal and Iīve learned something new.
I took another short on NZDJPY, this one should be more succesful. Again itīs DBHLC that bounces off previous resistance.
A good way to learn about HCR/LCS is to check jarroo's posts.
Another way is fxgroups thread, who does a great job of explaining how to use higher TF levels on the daily TF.
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=317593

I personally use weekly levels on the daily chart.

And about NZD/JPY; Im on the other side of this trade, took a long yesterday. Its not looking great at the moment, but SL hasnt been hit yet.

p.s. I would suggest you dont trade H4 yet and stick with daily. If you are a begginer, of course.
Thoughts are things
  • #111,137
  • May 2, 2012 11:14am May 2, 2012 11:14am
Quoting Variance
Thanks Rust,
To be real honest with you, I've really been taking 1:1's LOL!!!!!!!!
I do look at FTA but I really like to be OUT quick but I can definitely see (and feel) a transition coming for me - that's why I enjoy looking at your charts as well as Mike's and Meshka's coz you guys really stretch my comfort zone LOL
Well , with time you experience a lot of scenarios and you may feel happy taking 1:1 . Many times i do take my profit before the trouble area just couse i am happy with it . Don't know if i am right or wrong . When i gain more trades i will figure it out probably . But to see a major major trouble area , and to wait just another 15 pips to match 1:1 .... this is suicide
  • #111,138
  • May 2, 2012 11:20am May 2, 2012 11:20am
Quoting fxstarterPL
What can't I understand how is it possible that price bounce from trend line so often? in few examples (for example in Mike's posts) it seems that it happens almost with accuracy of pip...
in major ppz there are almost same level every time - but in trend lines - it can be anywhere ...

it's amazing - but still i don't understand it
They work because they are a technical analysis prime tool.
Everybody knows them, everybody uses them and when price approaches them, people prepare to take the appropriate action.
Thoughts are things
  • #111,139
  • Edited 11:35am May 2, 2012 11:21am | Edited 11:35am
Quoting Rust
Well , with time you experience a lot of scenarios and you may feel happy taking 1:1 . Many times i do take my profit before the trouble area just couse i am happy with it . Don't know if i am right or wrong . When i gain more trades i will figure it out probably . But to see a major major trouble area , and to wait just another 15 pips to match 1:1 .... this is suicide
I totally agree with you buddy. There's so much room for me to become more price-action dependent rather than pokeRange-pile-stats dependent HAHAHA!!!!!!!!!!

(thankfully, i've learnt from Mike to be suuuuuuppperr picky with my trades so I only take the very best so maybe i still do have a +ev but i can definitely start to think bigger)
  • #111,140
  • May 2, 2012 11:39am May 2, 2012 11:39am
Quoting mbqb11
nice wedge, Daily rising TL, price squeezed, BUOB swing low,
Hello, Mike. as you measured possible motion of price
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