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Extreme TMA System

  • #10,241
  • May 1, 2012 12:25pm May 1, 2012 12:25pm
Quoting DrDave
That has been the broken record repeating for the past 2 weeks. How many people started shorting way back then and went into recovery or stopped out?
I suspect EurUsd is going to build an Italian Boot here. We´ll see...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurusd.gif Size: 49 KB
Observation is the path to discovery.
  • #10,242
  • May 1, 2012 12:37pm May 1, 2012 12:37pm
Alfredo, does your system work on metatrader 5? What version are you running? Thanks
  • #10,243
  • May 1, 2012 12:38pm May 1, 2012 12:38pm
Quoting grivera
Alfredo, does your system work on metatrader 5? What version are you running? Thanks
MT4
Observation is the path to discovery.
  • #10,244
  • Edited 1:20pm May 1, 2012 12:48pm | Edited 1:20pm
Quoting Alorente
The fundamentals are good for the US market. Barring a Euroscare, there is no reason for the US market to drop. They have the Fed as tailwind and a pretty good economy. The US market will attract foreign buyers which is dollar positive. What I think will happen is the USD will finally line up with the stock market instead of Risk off only as we have seen lately. When you think about it, why in the world would the euro go higher when the markets do? The European economy sucks. There is a strong likelihood of more LTRO´s to help the banking sector...
All very good points Al as usual. I really want to see updated versions of these charts, as you can see "tailwind" is putting it lightly, and the correlation is obviously what the 'smart money' has been following.

Last night I went poking around but wasn't able to find charts, I did find some info on the Fed's site here http://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/to..._schedule.html
but I am not sure I am interpreting it correctly. If anyone has a little time I think this is worth investigating and interpreting further. Evil Speculator has some charts on this (where a couple came from) and http://www.mcoscillator.com is also a good site and source of info, but as I say an updated chart is something I couldn't find (last one I posted goes back to beg of Jan) I would like to track this live but not sure where it can be done, looks like maybe in Trade Station by second chart here). More important than charts of the past of course is what buy programs they are currently on and what they are planning to do, and this is where the fed link has info.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2011-04-25_POMO-1024x838.png Size: 246 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: Fed tresurary buying, green=buy, white=nothing.jpg Size: 140 KB
Attached Image
  • #10,245
  • May 1, 2012 12:49pm May 1, 2012 12:49pm
Today we may have witnessed the final battle with the two trendlines. If that is the case, the next stop will be the famous head & shoulders neckline and after breaking that, a test of the bottom at 1.2640.

This Bull has been difficult to domesticate, so some healthy skepticism is warranted.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurusd.gif Size: 22 KB
Observation is the path to discovery.
  • #10,246
  • May 1, 2012 12:56pm May 1, 2012 12:56pm
Quoting jayjonbeach
All very good points Al as usual. I really want to see updated versions of these charts, as you can see "tailwind" is putting it lightly, and the correlation is obviously what the 'smart money' has been following.

Last night I went poking around but wasn't able to find charts, I did find some info on the Fed's site here http://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/to..._schedule.html
but I am not sure I am interpreting it correctly. If anyone has a little time I think this is worth investigating and interpreting further. Evil Speculator...
Great info and charts.

I don´t think we have to worry about QE3. Today´s PMI number settled that for sure. Especially with an election a few months away and Ben saying in his news conference that it would be reckless to do it. From now on EurUsd is going to have to walk on its own without any help from Uncle Ben.
Observation is the path to discovery.
  • #10,247
  • May 1, 2012 12:57pm May 1, 2012 12:57pm
Quoting Alorente
Today we may have witnessed the final battle with the two trendlines. If that is the case, the next stop will be the famous head & shoulders neckline and after breaking that, a test of the bottom at 1.2640.

This Bull has been difficult to domesticate, so some healthy skepticism is warranted.
Yes someone said the H&S failed, but this would be a misleading statement.

The first test of the neckline failed, but the whole pattern is not invalid, yet, and in fact could just be making another shoulder which they sometimes do.
  • #10,248
  • May 1, 2012 1:08pm May 1, 2012 1:08pm
Quoting DrDave
That has been the broken record repeating for the past 2 weeks. How many people started shorting way back then and went into recovery or stopped out?
So true, people should trade what they see and not trying
to guess or predict where a pair will go, PA traders like me believe that all fundamentals have been already digested by price so in my case i dont epeculate what a pair will do, i just take the good opportunities.

Regards
Indicators always obey Price, not the other way.
  • #10,249
  • May 1, 2012 1:09pm May 1, 2012 1:09pm
Quoting Alorente
I suspect EurUsd is going to build an Italian Boot here. We´ll see...
Hi Al,

what indicator do you have on the bottom of your chart? And how do you use it?
  • #10,250
  • May 1, 2012 1:10pm May 1, 2012 1:10pm
Quoting Alorente
Great info and charts.

I don´t think we have to worry about QE3. Today´s PMI number settled that for sure. Especially with an election a few months away and Ben saying in his news conference that it would be reckless to do it. From now on EurUsd is going to have to walk on its own without any help from Uncle Ben.
What I really want to watch for is when they stop buying, the effects have been almost immediate every time they do. Once a fall happens, and especially a good one, you can bet Ben will be 'gassing up the heli' again, not sure he will ever give up, but I think the effect eventually will.
  • #10,251
  • May 1, 2012 1:12pm May 1, 2012 1:12pm
Maxtrader wouldn't you stay extra alert trading the Euro$ as news develops that Sarkozy's likely to lose this weekend?...

http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/...83I0EZ20120501
  • #10,252
  • May 1, 2012 1:18pm May 1, 2012 1:18pm
Quoting Poocher
Maxtrader wouldn't you stay extra alert trading the Euro$ as news develops that Sarkozy's likely to lose this weekend?...

http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/...83I0EZ20120501
The true is that I never follow the news, the only data I am careful is non Farm Payment and the Fed rates desitions, in the case that I want to open a position near the hour of those events.

Regards
Indicators always obey Price, not the other way.
  • #10,253
  • May 1, 2012 1:26pm May 1, 2012 1:26pm
Quoting Olarion1975
Hi Al,

what indicator do you have on the bottom of your chart? And how do you use it?
It is a new indicator that Nanningbob has created that I am testing. I like it a lot. It averages the two latest Weekly bars and displays them in any TF. It does not repaint. It is like zooming in those last two weeks. Great for trend definition. I am posting it below. Again, all the credit is Bob´s for a great indicator.
Attached File(s)
File Type: mq4 10.2 WeeklyOpenHistogram 2x2.mq4   3 KB | 918 downloads
Observation is the path to discovery.
  • #10,254
  • May 1, 2012 2:26pm May 1, 2012 2:26pm
Quoting Berivana
Why only looking to the USDX,
as you can see EURX has also something to tell

Attachment
Hi Berivana,

How do you get the picture displayed?

Thanks...
To excel by continuous learning
  • #10,255
  • May 1, 2012 3:04pm May 1, 2012 3:04pm
Quoting LuisPrinc
thanks nanningbob !
Did you sell Euro and at what price if ?
What other inicators are u looking for shorting the euro then ?
What if it breaks above 1.3300 ?

Kind regards,
Luis
I will be posting my 10.2 test version update sometime today. It will have the indis and explanation in the packet. As you already know profit target was hit.

I expect it to break 1.33 and head down but big money is still trying to support the Euro despite fundamental bias to a bear market. If it breaks 1.33 I do expect it to go down but right now I see a ranging market until the next big news story.
  • #10,256
  • May 1, 2012 3:10pm May 1, 2012 3:10pm
@PeepCzar

Sorry what do you mean by?

Quote
How do you get the picture displayed?
  • #10,257
  • May 1, 2012 3:20pm May 1, 2012 3:20pm
Does anybody know: is there a TMA modification for Metatrader 5?
Gentlemen always play by the rules. If they can't, they change the rules.
  • #10,258
  • May 1, 2012 4:20pm May 1, 2012 4:20pm
Quoting nanningbob
I will be posting my 10.2 test version update sometime today. It will have the indis and explanation in the packet. As you already know profit target was hit.

I expect it to break 1.33 and head down but big money is still trying to support the Euro despite fundamental bias to a bear market. If it breaks 1.33 I do expect it to go down but right now I see a ranging market until the next big news story.
Thanks buddy!

Yes this ranging market is really tiring me. Evem if it seems that it will fall like a rock then retraces up again and is testing new highs or makinh new ones.
Everytime I shorted last week euro made new highs and then went down.
I dont know how to trade this. Last time I went short and price went 65 pips againt me, then the other day it dropped down below my entry for about 40 pips and then went up again. It seems everytime divergence occurs like this it dropps down. A lot of times even if it goes 30 pips against my entry, then it came back with a profit of 15-30 or more pips.
So why then we should make a breakeven that Al told us ?
I find out that even it this case when euro went up above my entry for about 65 pips making new highs with divergence finally went down below my entry 40 pips. Then it went up again resuming uptrend because of new lower low with divergence. Any thoughts from you masters will be greatfully accepted


Kind regards,
Luis
  • #10,259
  • May 1, 2012 4:37pm May 1, 2012 4:37pm
Quoting Berivana
@PeepCzar

Sorry what do you mean by?
My broker OANDA doesn't have it, so Poocher posted an indicator in 682/10220, but I can't get the display right. Would you be able to help?

Thanks!...
To excel by continuous learning
  • #10,260
  • May 1, 2012 5:16pm May 1, 2012 5:16pm
Quoting LuisPrinc
Thanks buddy!

Yes this ranging market is really tiring me. Evem if it seems that it will fall like a rock then retraces up again and is testing new highs or makinh new ones.
Everytime I shorted last week euro made new highs and then went down.
I dont know how to trade this. Last time I went short and price went 65 pips againt me, then the other day it dropped down below my entry for about 40 pips and then went up again. It seems everytime divergence occurs like this it dropps down. A lot of times even if it goes 30 pips against my entry, then it...
I think using weekly pivots will help solve this problem. Markets are really tough to trade right now because of the big boys in Europe are in big support of the Euro. Hard to borrow money when the value is crashing causes higher interest rates and that is the last thing Europe needs right now. Makes fundamental calls fools. I understand the need for a stable Euro and that is why it is being done. Makes trading tough though.
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