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AUD/USD

  • #43,661
  • May 1, 2012 1:44am May 1, 2012 1:44am
Okay , .5% cut on rate, I was expecting .25% , but the drop wasnt significant imo, any probability it might drop more ?
  • #43,662
  • May 1, 2012 1:46am May 1, 2012 1:46am
Quoting rnegoro
Okay , .5% cut on rate, I was expecting .25% , but the drop wasnt significant imo, any probability it might drop more ?
I guess it should drop more
But first go to 1.035 -> Drop
BTW Just guess only
  • #43,663
  • May 1, 2012 1:53am May 1, 2012 1:53am
Quoting rnegoro
Okay , .5% cut on rate, I was expecting .25% , but the drop wasnt significant imo, any probability it might drop more ?
stochastic and rsi are showing sold out conditions, maybe slight rally to nearest resistance or a slow grind upwards, then have to check charts again

imo
  • #43,664
  • May 1, 2012 1:57am May 1, 2012 1:57am
I am still long, taking a hit now but will let the swap build.

I got in long @ 1.034

Do not simply follow me, others on here are far more experienced.
I still trade with 11% emotions, 20% gut feeling, 40% technical and 29% luck.

ps, I blindly follow jayjb, so by the time I have followed jayjb, and then you follow me the market has already moved... lol
A genius is born every minute, me I am lucky if my socks match.
  • #43,665
  • May 1, 2012 1:57am May 1, 2012 1:57am
Quoting scfx
I think the AUDUSD is a buy this is a shock rate cute to calm all the pressure for the local government. RBA has no more room to move down now. Looking to buy after LON NY open in case any further dumping... so while more lower prices likely, I think this is a good op for a buy and hold. RBA are really backed into a corner now regarding rates and the carry market may pick up on this....

scfx

????? 3.75% is not backed into a corner. Its the highest rate out of all the the developed countries atm.
  • #43,666
  • May 1, 2012 2:01am May 1, 2012 2:01am
Quoting SnaveForex
are you still long st current levels
Yea.. Buy on dips.. I believe this level will hold for a while.. This h4 close is important, we need 1.0330 intact or we may see further drop.
  • #43,667
  • May 1, 2012 2:04am May 1, 2012 2:04am
So Lon does not seem to have much of a reaction to AUD news. Seems to be taking it's cue from USD value. Seems as though we could be moving up from here. Any thoughts?
Greg
  • #43,668
  • May 1, 2012 2:16am May 1, 2012 2:16am
It is only 8:15 in London, wait a little bit longer.

A bit of brekkie, scones and tea and then we will find out.
A genius is born every minute, me I am lucky if my socks match.
  • #43,669
  • May 1, 2012 2:19am May 1, 2012 2:19am
Quoting Eulogy
????? 3.75% is not backed into a corner. Its the highest rate out of all the the developed countries atm.
wrong, we have the strongest western economy in the world post GFC and where the first to raise our rates after the GFC. don't think US or EURO when looking at our rates. we're in a different situation to the other west economies. SUB 4% for our rates at the moment is very low evn crisis low. this cut is to apse all the public and government pressure put on the RBA for the last 3 weeks. There will not be any further rate cuts in Australia.
The best indicator is price.
  • #43,670
  • May 1, 2012 2:20am May 1, 2012 2:20am
Quoting Gregduro
So Lon does not seem to have much of a reaction to AUD news. Seems to be taking it's cue from USD value. Seems as though we could be moving up from here. Any thoughts?
Greg
Plz guys, do yourselves a favour and read the FF calendar first before making these kind of typically newbie statements.

All Day CNY Bank Holiday

All Day CHF Bank Holiday

All Day EUR French Bank Holiday

All Day EUR German Bank Holiday

All Day EUR Italian Bank Holiday

Is it any wonder its kinda slow now......
  • #43,671
  • May 1, 2012 2:23am May 1, 2012 2:23am
is it just me or is aud just keep getting bad data? commodity prices down minus 4.2%
  • #43,672
  • May 1, 2012 2:28am May 1, 2012 2:28am
Quoting scfx
wrong, we have the strongest western economy in the world post GFC and where the first to raise our rates after the GFC. don't think US or EURO when looking at our rates. we're in a different situation to the other west economies. SUB 4% for our rates at the moment is very low evn crisis low. this cut is to apse all the public and government pressure put on the RBA for the last 3 weeks. There will not be any further rate cuts in Australia.
Can I quote you on that later in the year?
FF journal: Peaks and Troffs
  • #43,673
  • May 1, 2012 2:34am May 1, 2012 2:34am
Quoting Eulogy
Plz guys, do yourselves a favour and read the FF calendar first before making these kind of typically newbie statements.

All Day CNY Bank Holiday

All Day CHF Bank Holiday

All Day EUR French Bank Holiday

All Day EUR German Bank Holiday

All Day EUR Italian Bank Holiday

Is it any wonder its kinda slow now......
My apologies. I had a filter applied to the calendar and did not see all the "white" events. Mea Culpa. Greg
  • #43,674
  • May 1, 2012 2:37am May 1, 2012 2:37am
Quoting scfx
wrong, we have the strongest western economy in the world post GFC and where the first to raise our rates after the GFC. don't think US or EURO when looking at our rates. we're in a different situation to the other west economies. SUB 4% for our rates at the moment is very low evn crisis low. this cut is to apse all the public and government pressure put on the RBA for the last 3 weeks. There will not be any further rate cuts in Australia.
I'd luv to quote that in the future too. Quite frankly i have no idea why you are comparing RBA rates with US/EU rate moves. We may be the first to raise rates after '08 but then again with these last 2 moves we're also the only ones to recommence cutting them again.

Furthermore where are you getting this 3-4% lower bound from? Doesn't matter if you are the best of the bunch. If your economy is still sinking, you keep cutting.
  • #43,675
  • May 1, 2012 2:39am May 1, 2012 2:39am
Quoting bogus
Can I quote you on that later in the year?
please do, i am never afraid of being wrong.
The best indicator is price.
  • #43,676
  • May 1, 2012 2:49am May 1, 2012 2:49am
Quoting Eulogy
I'd luv to quote that in the future too. Quite frankly i have no idea why you are comparing RBA rates with US/EU rate moves. We may be the first to raise rates after '08 but then again with these last 2 moves we're also the only ones to recommence cutting them again.

Furthermore where are you getting this 3-4% lower bound from? Doesn't matter if you are the best of the bunch. If your economy is still sinking, you keep cutting.
i am getting it from the attached chart, as you can see 4% was only breached once from 1992 till now in the GFC that's why I am saying the RBA now has it's back to the wall. we don't have a GFC atm so I can't see rates continue down unless the Australian economy completely falls over.

I think we're seeing the bottom now of the housing market and the economy. the GFC has caught up with all the softer businesses now. hence the amount of job loses. But I think this is it, bottom or putting in a bottom. Things feel very bad atm and a out of charcter move by the RBA to put in confidence really pushes this point home for me. I might be totally wrong but I stand by my thinking. I looking to buy the aud tonight.

getting off my main point, i am pushing this due to the carry value of the aud, which is still in tact.

scfx
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: aust int rates 1990 2012.png Size: 18 KB
The best indicator is price.
  • #43,677
  • May 1, 2012 2:50am May 1, 2012 2:50am
Quoting Noobicle
whats your next rule please?

NZDUSD just posted a very HIGH PROBABILITY SHORT; take this OP for 45pips drop. current value is 0.8130
Perfect Trading Core completed on 13/10/2012 : 2002-2012 |10yrs
  • #43,678
  • May 1, 2012 3:00am May 1, 2012 3:00am
Quoting scfx
i am getting it from the attached chart, as you can see 4% was only breached once from 1992 till now in the GFC that's why I am saying the RBA now has it's back to the wall. we don't have a GFC atm so I can't see rates continue down unless the Australian economy completely falls over.

I think we're seeing the bottom now of the housing market and the economy. the GFC has caught up with all the softer businesses now. hence the amount of job loses. But I think this is it, bottom or putting in a bottom. Things feel very bad atm and a out of charcter...
While certainly our housing market never became as inflated as the monstrosity in the US in 06/07 it certainly isn't pretty either. Please don't tell me that you think a measly 1-3% drop in the housing market means its hit a bottom. You are sounding alot like one of those pundit chanting market bottom, market bottom, market bottom all throughout the GFC.

I'm just hoping you don't fall into the trap that its all clear sailing from now on.....
  • #43,679
  • May 1, 2012 3:04am May 1, 2012 3:04am
Quoting 1stECN
NZDUSD just posted a very HIGH PROBABILITY SHORT; take this OP for 45pips drop. current value is 0.8130
hehe already shorted @ 8196, curently 62pips up on it....thinking......


Bulls out there give me a good reason to long??
  • #43,680
  • May 1, 2012 3:05am May 1, 2012 3:05am
Quoting 1stECN
NZDUSD just posted a very HIGH PROBABILITY SHORT; take this OP for 45pips drop. current value is 0.8130
BREAKING NEWS...


NZDUSD just dropped me a hint it hit 0.8076 (over 50pips from here)
Perfect Trading Core completed on 13/10/2012 : 2002-2012 |10yrs
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