RBA Statement | Forex Factory

  • RBA Statement

    From rba.gov.au

    At its meeting today, the Board decided to lower the cash rate by 50 basis points to 3.75 per cent, effective 2 May 2012. This decision is based on information received over the past few months that suggests that economic conditions have been somewhat weaker than expected, while inflation has moderated. Growth in the world economy slowed in the second half of 2011, and is likely to continue at a below-trend pace this year. A deep downturn is not occurring at this stage, however, and in fact some forecasters have recently revised upwards their global growth outlook. Growth in China has moderated, as was intended, and ... (full story)

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billv
Apr 30, 2012 9:52pm
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Quoting elljay
How low fron here? 1.02700 is by bet, whats yours?
Don't bet on it, the AUD is likely to keep going up because the USD is weak and because the Australian economy is still very strong
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KADC
Apr 30, 2012 10:04pm
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Yes, but what's annoying is I knew that always happens, yet I set stops out of force of habit. {sigh} A few seconds before the announcement and I saw the upward pressure build I knew my stops were going to trigger but I couldn't cancel them in time.

At this point I'm hoping to see a retracement to near last weeks low, but I'm targeting 1.03 (just above the 61.8% Fibonacci) where I think it will bounce.
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Trainman
May 1, 2012 1:50am
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Quoting billv
It happens all the time, they push the price to hit people's stops
When a major news release is scheduled, the liquidity providers withdraw their limit orders bracketing the current price, to keep from getting caught in any price spike (you can see the spread widen). SL orders are ordinarily filled by liquidity providers, so without their presence, the stop orders go unfilled and the price moves to try find a balance of buyers and sellers. But as the price moves it triggers new SL orders, which results in an avalanche effect. That's why you end up getting filled 60 pips from where your SL was tripped.

Perhaps someone intentionally pushes the price in the direction opposite to the way it should go based on the news, to start the avalanche of stops on the opposite side. Or perhaps it is simply some doofus clicking the buy button by mistake. What difference does it make? The market is the way it is.
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Senyor
Apr 30, 2012 10:17pm
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Brilliant strategy for AUD. This will boost exports oil metals commods etc.in addition a breather to local eco. Dropping the lending rate is like restructuring a loan to a poor guy who's having a tough time making sales. The gestation for normalizing back would be 2-3 months. Technically the spikes on a monthly chart tells the story.
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Jj1459
Apr 30, 2012 9:42pm
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Yupp Kadc this is really annoying ...I Placed pending orders at both sides but both of my orders were triggered i don't know that why AUD moved by 20 pips upwards quickly right after the release of the news report? :-(
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billv
Apr 30, 2012 9:48pm
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Quoting Kadc
I shorted but my stop triggered ...which I should have known would happen. .
It happens all the time, they push the price to hit people's stops
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billv
Apr 30, 2012 10:15pm — Edited
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This rate cut is the best news I've heard for a while.
To those of us with a mortgage it will be a considerable boost to our cash flow.
We're all going shopping again
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KADC
Apr 30, 2012 9:38pm
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I shorted but my stop triggered ...which I should have known would happen. Sometimes I think missing profit when you are right but screw it up is worse than losing money from being wrong.
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KADC
Apr 30, 2012 11:36pm
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@enzov12 You may be right long-term, but I think the near-term trend is still down until we retest support around last week's low.
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Jj1459
Apr 30, 2012 9:37pm
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Aud is gonna be blown up!
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e_bon
Apr 30, 2012 9:47pm
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Hit by S/L again...
:-(
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e_bon
Apr 30, 2012 9:49pm
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Quoting billv
It happens all the time, they push the price to hit people's stops
Yes, they call it : "Flush Out".
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enzov12
Apr 30, 2012 11:31pm
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I don't think you are right: we are in a deflationary scenario. So Assie should...go up!!!
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enzov12
May 1, 2012 1:06am
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@Kadc: in a deflationary scenario, rate cuts are totally inefficient...
You have just to wait for...4 hours from now!!!
Remember last week: Japanese QE and the yen was... soaring!!!
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Dr. forex
May 1, 2012 5:44am
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you are all telling crap
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jajano
Apr 30, 2012 9:33pm
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AU is dowwwwn
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Loadedgun
May 1, 2012 1:41pm
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Quoting manahil
AUD buy from 1.02660 and 1.1900 stop
Can't say this enough manahil is my fave person on ff - simply love his posts. Meanwhile, made 10k off this trade - and was asleep all the while just woke in the morning saw P < S3 and cashed in - regrettably the reaction I anticipated at that level did not come and had I left things alone would have made more. Still there is another day. The lack of reaction though suggests the risk is still to the downside - but will it trend? That's the million $ question - tired of trading these ranging pairs. The Euro for instance has been in range since the low of January 13.
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toptrader11
Apr 30, 2012 9:41pm
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Is either you win big or lose big lol. is 50/50
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toptrader11
Apr 30, 2012 9:43pm
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back to Euro charts now...
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kayla2011
Apr 30, 2012 10:01pm
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parity in two to three weeks
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kayla2011
Apr 30, 2012 10:24pm
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the deepest reduction in three years! bears cud be in control in the coming days if not weeks!
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kayla2011
May 1, 2012 4:21am
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Set and forget.. But don 4get entirely.. check every 4 hours and adjust SL.. I mean Stop profits.
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elljay
Apr 30, 2012 9:43pm
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How low fron here? 1.02700 is by bet, whats yours?
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Trader#5369
Apr 30, 2012 10:19pm
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Quoting Kadc
Yes, but what's annoying is I knew that always happens, yet I set stops out of force of habit. {sigh} A few seconds before the announcement and I saw the upward pressure build I knew my stops were going to trigger but I couldn't cancel them in time.

At this point I'm hoping to see a retracement to near last weeks low, but I'm targeting 1.03 (just above the 61.8% Fibonacci) where I think it will bounce.
You should get last weeks low. I went short of the 15 min chart from todays open@ 1.0423. The market sentiment was always for a reduction , but not 50 bps
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Trader#648D
May 1, 2012 12:50am
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Here newbies take a bit of advice. China is slowing an in a kind of ''recovery mode'' not gaining mode so they aint gaining, which is slowing down aussies exports, aussies #1 export is commoditys that china buys. Ausies economy internally isnt doing the best, with home sales down, commodity prices down, AIG Manufacturing Index grew at a very slugish pace @ 43.9, inflation up an the rate-cut of 50bps, which would signal to the average trader to short, no this is not january when aud was in the sky, this is the now, get used to it, stop holding on to things an let them go, peace.
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manahil
May 1, 2012 4:05am
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AUD buy from 1.02660 and 1.1900 stop
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Trader#0F26
Apr 30, 2012 9:37pm
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all long from here
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Trader#0C8C
Apr 30, 2012 9:41pm
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just take profit when .800 different, shouldnt wait for long
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Trader#36D6
Apr 30, 2012 9:44pm
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$1400 in seconds yaaaa
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Trader#DD47
Apr 30, 2012 10:01pm
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I had a pending short au/usd around the 1.0395 mark got filled 1.0340 over 50 pips of slippage and spread blowout, Thanks FXCM
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Trader#C666
Apr 30, 2012 10:06pm
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AUD still go down?
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Trader#0C8C
Apr 30, 2012 10:14pm
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ardy got .800 different
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Trader#648D
Apr 30, 2012 11:19pm
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my heart goes shalala lala... boom boom boom... shalala lala in the moooorningg
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Trader#1C9C
Apr 30, 2012 11:34pm
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gold will down due to this rate cut.
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Trader#5B7C
May 1, 2012 1:56am
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Quoting Guest
I had a pending short au/usd around the 1.0395 mark got filled 1.0340 over 50 pips of slippage and spread blowout, Thanks FXCM
Get a proper broker with STP or ECN.
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Trader#32F7
May 1, 2012 8:02am
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Quoting Dr. forex
you are all telling crap
Someone has to provide meat for sharks.
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Trader#0E00
May 1, 2012 8:09am
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Quoting kayla2011
the deepest reduction in three years! bears cud be in control in the coming days if not weeks!
they would have to keep cutting their rate. As of now it is an unknown.
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