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AUD/USD

  • #43,521
  • Apr 30, 2012 6:53pm Apr 30, 2012 6:53pm
Quoting ahmad37
Thanks MTCHL, actually i am very new, and already lost some money, can you advise according to calender AUD news time is 1230 am, can you advise me, how much time remaining? beacs market time already 1230 is over,

Thanks
You can set the time on forex factory site to be the same as your computer time. It will then give you news times as per your home time. Just go to the calander tab up top
  • #43,522
  • Apr 30, 2012 6:55pm Apr 30, 2012 6:55pm
Quoting MitchL
You can set the time on forex factory site to be the same as your computer time. It will then give you news times as per your home time. Just go to the calander tab up top
Thanks a lot MitchL,
  • #43,523
  • Apr 30, 2012 6:59pm Apr 30, 2012 6:59pm
Quoting Mpx
Totally agree Noobicle, as Einstein is quoted to have said "2 things are infinite, the universe and human stupidity; and I am not so sure about the universe."
  • #43,524
  • Apr 30, 2012 7:05pm Apr 30, 2012 7:05pm
His account was suspended but you are all still talking about it...

Anyway, back on track.

Totally agree with rafiqhidayat, newbies like me should not trade news..

I am 4 x short trades, overcapitalised and hoping like mad for a .50 rate cut to pull back some profits.

60% chance it will be a .25 cut.
80% of analysts are saying not to short AUD at the moment.

SO WHY AM I SHORT, because my emotions got the better of me!!

As for the market having already priced in the rate cut, please just watch the 1 minute chart around the time of the rate cut. If it moves sporadically, is it emotions of big punters, did the market get it wrong?
A genius is born every minute, me I am lucky if my socks match.
  • #43,525
  • Apr 30, 2012 7:13pm Apr 30, 2012 7:13pm
Quoting neuron
always a dangerous thing to say

but good luck
Hope is what kills trader. My advice is to get out as close to your entry price as possible. Judging from yesterday's sell off, i say we might still have a way to go. Key area for me would be 1.0366 for bears and 1.0470 for bulls, but if technicals are right, we're looking at a bull run until 1.0509
  • #43,526
  • Apr 30, 2012 7:15pm Apr 30, 2012 7:15pm
Quoting whackdiddy
His account was suspended but you are all still talking about it...

Anyway, back on track.

Totally agree with rafiqhidayat, newbies like me should not trade news..

I am 4 x short trades, overcapitalised and hoping like mad for a .50 rate cut to pull back some profits.

60% chance it will be a .25 cut.
80% of analysts are saying not to short AUD at the moment.

SO WHY AM I SHORT, because my emotions got the better of me!!

As for the market having already priced in the rate cut, please just watch the 1 minute chart around the time of the rate...
Chill. I've been there a couple of times... Now, even with a clear signal to sell AUD, I will not proceed due to the negative swap. My account size is less than 10k, and I've already accumulated about USD 700 in negative swaps alone (overall profit minus swaps is USD 4000). So now I avoid AUD shorts like the plague.

AUD longs however is a totally different thing. If you read most of my recent posts in this thread, I've been a proponent of building long positions as the price dips. To use this strategy, your best friend is MM. As long as you keep within your MM, a combination of the positive swap, AUD strength (high interest rates) and USD weakness combined with Risk On status, will allow you to make good profits. I just liquidated about 5 mini lots of longs that I've accumulated from last month yesterday. Results, the single biggest profit I've made since I re-start my trading back in Sept.

So, if you feel like you've overleveraged (bad-bad thing), you might want to close some positions and eat the loss, because if the news goes the wrong way, you will have MC for breakfast.
Buy! Buy! Sell! Sell! Just make sure you have proper MM!
  • #43,527
  • Apr 30, 2012 7:16pm Apr 30, 2012 7:16pm
re "As for the market having already priced in the rate cut, please just watch the 1 minute chart around the time of the rate cut. If it moves sporadically, is it emotions of big punters, did the market get it wrong?"

Yes it could be this OR ...................

Perhaps ....................

It could be the fact that along with the rate news there is an RBA announcement relative to thier decision ???

Not sure here .. But it must be one of those 2
  • #43,528
  • Apr 30, 2012 7:19pm Apr 30, 2012 7:19pm
Thanks JayJB, I am only playing with very small lots because I am still learning. If I stick to my trading rules I mostly make profits, if you look at my profile I have a good percent of winning trades. The reason I loose money is because I go against my trading rules - still learning my lesson.

But I want to see what the market does just before 3:30, will it drop in anticipation of the jump?

no lies, just look at my profile, it is a great laugh.
A genius is born every minute, me I am lucky if my socks match.
  • #43,529
  • Apr 30, 2012 7:21pm Apr 30, 2012 7:21pm
I am on the bull and hope there is no rate cut.
  • #43,530
  • Apr 30, 2012 7:28pm Apr 30, 2012 7:28pm
Quoting rafiqhidayat
Chill. I've been there a couple of times... Now, even with a clear signal to sell AUD, I will not proceed due to the negative swap. My account size is less than 10k, and I've already accumulated about USD 700 in negative swaps alone (overall profit minus swaps is USD 4000). So now I avoid AUD shorts like the plague.

AUD longs however is a totally different thing. If you read most of my recent posts in this thread, I've been a proponent of building long positions as the price dips. To use this strategy, your best friend is MM. As long as you...
I agree with you. As mentioned in my blog, even with a rate cut at 4% it still makes the australian dollar an attractive currency to long.

As far as possible i avoid shorting this pair unless technicals are overwhelming.
  • #43,531
  • Apr 30, 2012 7:54pm Apr 30, 2012 7:54pm
Waiting for AUD Reserve Bank of Australia Rate Decision (MAY 1)
Shorted [email protected]
  • #43,532
  • Apr 30, 2012 8:02pm Apr 30, 2012 8:02pm
Quoting Noobicle
took a small long @ 420 tp after china data...looks like some supportive candles on the 15m, still holding shorts
tp -1pip...........scary
  • #43,533
  • Apr 30, 2012 8:48pm Apr 30, 2012 8:48pm
still resisting of that 1.0408 ???
  • #43,534
  • Apr 30, 2012 8:52pm Apr 30, 2012 8:52pm
Quoting rafiqhidayat
Chill. I've been there a couple of times... Now, even with a clear signal to sell AUD, I will not proceed due to the negative swap. My account size is less than 10k, and I've already accumulated about USD 700 in negative swaps alone (overall profit minus swaps is USD 4000). So now I avoid AUD shorts like the plague.

AUD longs however is a totally different thing. If you read most of my recent posts in this thread, I've been a proponent of building long positions as the price dips. To use this strategy, your best friend is MM. As long as you...
i already told u this and others on this thread but u noobs will never listen until u donate ur acct then ull be like damn jag was right lol like i said why short a high yield when theres better shorts out there if ur a position trader? r u stupid or just dumb?
  • #43,535
  • Apr 30, 2012 8:54pm Apr 30, 2012 8:54pm
Quoting MitchL
still resisting of that 1.0408 ???
ping ponging until RBA meeting

closed my shorts, scalped a long, sitting on my hands waiting at the sidelines now...
  • #43,536
  • Apr 30, 2012 8:59pm Apr 30, 2012 8:59pm
Quoting sidhujag
i already told u this and others on this thread but u noobs will never listen until u donate ur acct then ull be like damn jag was right lol like i said why short a high yield when theres better shorts out there if ur a position trader? r u stupid or just dumb?
ive almost got 250 pips shorting the aud nzd an gpb vs usd, since yesturday

^_^
  • #43,537
  • Apr 30, 2012 9:00pm Apr 30, 2012 9:00pm
Quoting neuron
ping ponging until RBA meeting

closed my shorts, scalped a long, sitting on my hands waiting at the sidelines now...

i just have 2 x 0.5 shorts open from 1.0451 shorter s/p just in case we get the 0.5 basis point cut. I don't see an outrageous move on the 0.25 basis point cut and any swinging from the RBA statement should not miss my stops. Main risk is no cut. I find it very very unlikely though.

I just hope i am not the " I wish I was sitting on my hands" guy after the announcement
  • #43,538
  • Apr 30, 2012 9:01pm Apr 30, 2012 9:01pm
Quoting Noobicle
ive almost got 250 pips shorting the aud nzd an gpb vs usd, since yesturday

^_^
talk to me in 6 months if ur still alive. Statistically odds are even lower u gotta compete with spread swap broker then biggest of all big boys. If you can do it u deserve ur own hedge fund
  • #43,539
  • Apr 30, 2012 9:06pm Apr 30, 2012 9:06pm
Quoting sidhujag
talk to me in 6 months if ur still alive. Statistically odds are even lower u gotta compete with spread swap broker then biggest of all big boys. If you can do it u deserve ur own hedge fund
hehe GL to you too mr sidhujag

by the way i dont know why there is danger in shorting a pair given u can atleast get a 50pip target...would u rather wait for the long? or get the 50pips - 3 pip swap for the day?

there are also swap free accounts out there if you decide if shorting is not good because of swap...
  • #43,540
  • Apr 30, 2012 9:07pm Apr 30, 2012 9:07pm
Quoting sidhujag
talk to me in 6 months if ur still alive. Statistically odds are even lower u gotta compete with spread swap broker then biggest of all big boys. If you can do it u deserve ur own hedge fund
well then, i guess you're in the long 'til 1.5 bunch
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