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AUD/USD

  • #43,501
  • Apr 30, 2012 8:38am Apr 30, 2012 8:38am
Quoting Fogtrader
Since the .25% rate cut is already priced in, the danger would be if no rate cut takes place. The easier bet may be to go LONG. Since if the rate cut does happen, people are going to say it is already priced in and aud won't drop. If the rates remain the same then AUD will shoot up past 1.047.

The only chance for the bears to win this is if the rate cut is 0.50%.
Like i said, at least imo .25% rate cut wasnt priced in, but it doesnt really matter, as a trader you must be able to react to all kinds of situation. What i would play now is a wait and see. IF there is no rate cut, I will try sneak sells at 1.05- 1.06-1.07 level, because I actually believe there will eventually be a rate cut.

If rate cuts at .25 or .5% brings it down dramatically, then i would definitely sneak a buy at 1.01 -1.02 because of probability of QE 3.

Either way if my guess is wrong and rate cut of .25% is already inside. then i wouldnt do anything.
  • #43,502
  • Apr 30, 2012 9:01am Apr 30, 2012 9:01am
I will be selling rallies in AUD.Pending sell order at 1.0481.
IMO markets are pricing in $700B of QE at current rate however Ben's fav inflation measure PCE is sticking to .2%,leaving little room for Fed to maneuver. this is election yr and gov is not in position to make the voters angry over rising gas prices.
as Bill Gross said back in Oct-Nov last yr there will be verbal QE and we are still seeing this with no action on Fed's part.however Fed can't delay it beyond June when they wind up asset purchase.
Markets and data have to get much worse before Fed can seriously mull over creating money.With Europe's problems growing i can see all central banks in waiting who's gonna ease first.
as of real QE hints we'll have to wait till sep jackson hole meeting
  • #43,503
  • Apr 30, 2012 9:19am Apr 30, 2012 9:19am
Quoting FX-Petra
Still holding. Looking to close out on an approach of 0450. Will wait to see if we get a break out from there. Always buying dips!

regards,
Closed 0270 and 2 lots 0330 @ 0455, plus a lot of good intrest. This one worked out great! Looking to buy a good pull back or a topside break. Good trades to all....

Regards,
  • #43,504
  • Apr 30, 2012 10:28am Apr 30, 2012 10:28am
Currently at 410.

Ascending trendline (30min) comes at 401...
Use me as a contrarian indicator
  • #43,505
  • Edited 10:41am Apr 30, 2012 10:39am | Edited 10:41am
Quoting Fogtrader
Since the .25% rate cut is already priced in, the danger would be if no rate cut takes place. The easier bet may be to go LONG. Since if the rate cut does happen, people are going to say it is already priced in and aud won't drop. If the rates remain the same then AUD will shoot up past 1.047.

The only chance for the bears to win this is if the rate cut is 0.50%.
OR if it's .25 and the statement is dovish. I do agree that if it's 0.25 and RBA gives an upbeat statement, then long is the easier bet. Still holding my shorts from 0450, 0460, and 0470.

Christ, just read my post. I should change my name to Captain Obvious after this one...
  • #43,506
  • Apr 30, 2012 10:57am Apr 30, 2012 10:57am
GFT's kathy lien says that a 25 rate cut is fully priced in.

Will update on what she has to say if we fall 100pips after the cut annoucement
  • #43,507
  • Apr 30, 2012 12:33pm Apr 30, 2012 12:33pm
4ex is about future, past is dead, period. And present becomes past at the speed of time.

So, cut now, next?
Use me as a contrarian indicator
  • #43,508
  • Apr 30, 2012 4:07pm Apr 30, 2012 4:07pm
Quoting 1dolR
sorry for the newbie question, what type of software/broker are you using that can produce this type of graph?
That was not my chart. But I am assuming it is just a MT4 with the colours messed around with to personal preference.
  • #43,509
  • Apr 30, 2012 4:13pm Apr 30, 2012 4:13pm
Quoting mrbandwidth
4ex is about future, past is dead, period. And present becomes past at the speed of time.

So, cut now, next?
So true!! fully agree!! :-)
Get rich or die tryin!
  • #43,510
  • Apr 30, 2012 4:18pm Apr 30, 2012 4:18pm
Quoting MitchL
I don't really see it breaking out of the channel in that chart ?

I think your channel is a touch low based on the 2 previous highs ?

Feedback from other traders please ?

I am quite curious how other poeple see that channel chart


I see AUDUSD dropping before 4am NY time in the morning.
Perfect Trading Core completed on 13/10/2012 : 2002-2012 |10yrs
  • #43,511
  • Apr 30, 2012 4:52pm Apr 30, 2012 4:52pm
Is everything setting up for a fall after the supposed rate cut? Are they, "market movers", trying to catch people, "retail traders", going the wrong way?
100 Pips per day can keep the bosses away.
  • #43,512
  • Apr 30, 2012 5:25pm Apr 30, 2012 5:25pm
I've been reading various analyses and some mention that the rate cut is already "priced in" and may not result in a drastic change unless the rate is cut more than anticipated
  • #43,513
  • Apr 30, 2012 5:31pm Apr 30, 2012 5:31pm
Quoting e585009
Is everything setting up for a fall after the supposed rate cut? Are they, "market movers", trying to catch people, "retail traders", going the wrong way?
if there were to be a fakeout, the most obvious 1 would be when CNY data comes out good that will send it up, then alot will think ''hey this is going to go up rate cut priced in, sweet time to get me the early worm'' theyll go in an get swomped by the rate cut''

...just a suggestion
  • #43,514
  • Apr 30, 2012 5:37pm Apr 30, 2012 5:37pm
Quoting neuron
I've been reading various analyses and some mention that the rate cut is already "priced in" and may not result in a drastic change unless the rate is cut more than anticipated
I am tending to agree with a previous post. The rate cut is priced in and we will see a very bullish market after the announcement unless something drastic like 0.5 basis points is cut (which would seem as unlikely as no rate cut at all)

I think we will see a declining AUD till at least the China news then a big bounce when the rate cut hit "as priced in"

Seems fairly common response to market news these days

my 2c
  • #43,515
  • Apr 30, 2012 5:38pm Apr 30, 2012 5:38pm
Quoting fx-rocket
There is no "Pro" and nobody has a crystal ball.
There will always be bulls and bears at any point in time and let's face it,
-that's why price moves.
No one knows what price will do, if the RBA cuts the expected .25%.
People will argue that .25% is "priced in" but in reality, -always expect the unexpected! Forex is so unpredictable when it comes to major news and reserve bank statements are, as you know, what drives this market the most.
Best post of the day - filled with market wisdom. Let those with ears hear.
  • #43,516
  • Apr 30, 2012 5:55pm Apr 30, 2012 5:55pm
kindly after how long time news coming? there is expected AUD will go down? i want to come out before news? thanks for advise,
  • #43,517
  • Apr 30, 2012 6:03pm Apr 30, 2012 6:03pm
Quoting ahmad37
kindly after how long time news coming? there is expected AUD will go down? i want to come out before news? thanks for advise,
Dude that is the whole idea of this site.. look at the calender it will show you all the news how important it is and when it is due to hit.

The direction the AUD travel is what we are all here to work out. with that knowledge we will all be rich.

I think it will go up after the news BUT am currently holding a short from 1.0451 of 2 units looking to get out of one unit at 1.0410 and ride the other till it hits s/p 1.0444 (just liked the number) or goes as far south as it can.

I do however believe that the markets for the last few years have been quite interesting.

negative news always = bearish currency movement

positive news always = bullish currency movement

I would suggest that these simple theories are no longer the truth.

With a rate cut fully priced in we should really see almost no movement when it hits which could happen

BUT the market could also move 200 points in either direction.

Do youself a favour ... Avoid trading news
  • #43,518
  • Apr 30, 2012 6:10pm Apr 30, 2012 6:10pm
Thanks MTCHL, actually i am very new, and already lost some money, can you advise according to calender AUD news time is 1230 am, can you advise me, how much time remaining? beacs market time already 1230 is over,

Thanks
  • #43,519
  • Apr 30, 2012 6:11pm Apr 30, 2012 6:11pm
agree with the previous post.

I've liquidated all my AU position yesterday (was long from even up to 1 month ago).

Currently waiting to buy all dips from 1.0350 downwards to rebuild my long positions.

You shouldn't trade news if you're new / not sure which direction it would go. But most importantly, don't over leverage yourself. My first ever MC was due to a news release. That was 4 years ago.
Buy! Buy! Sell! Sell! Just make sure you have proper MM!
  • #43,520
  • Apr 30, 2012 6:39pm Apr 30, 2012 6:39pm
took a small long @ 420 tp after china data...looks like some supportive candles on the 15m, still holding shorts
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