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Extreme TMA System

  • #10,121
  • Apr 28, 2012 11:31am Apr 28, 2012 11:31am
Quoting sabrys5769
Hello Al,
Are you using D1 and W1 TMA bands at 2.0 as H1 and H4?

Thank you
Sabrina
Yes. All of the TMA bands are 2.0 Multiplier.
Observation is the path to discovery.
  • #10,122
  • Apr 28, 2012 11:33am Apr 28, 2012 11:33am
Quoting maxtrader
Hi Al, do you know if there is an indicator that could show us the divergence but on a higher time frame, a MTF trix divergence indicator.

Regards
Not that I know off.
Observation is the path to discovery.
  • #10,123
  • Apr 28, 2012 11:37am Apr 28, 2012 11:37am
Quoting jayjonbeach
Hehehe Al your true USD bull colours are showing! lol


You bring up a very important point here that we should briefly touch on, Trendlines, like many things in charting, can also be looked at subjectively.

On the chart I'm posting, my TL is just a touch higher and through the candle wick where yours is just touching the wick.

Over the years you discover one fundamental truth about this, neither one is more valid than the other.

So while my TL "connects more dots" and I would argue 'looks' more correct because the market seems to...
To avoid getting "creative" with trendlines, the best way is to join the extreme points. If it breaks doing that, you know for sure it is broken.

Another way of knowing which is correct is to draw the parallel on the tops of price (equidistant channel). I havenīt done it, but if you do it on the UsdIndex chart, you will know which version of the trendline is the accurate one.
Observation is the path to discovery.
  • #10,124
  • Apr 28, 2012 11:44am Apr 28, 2012 11:44am
Quoting Alorente
To avoid getting "creative" with trendlines, the best way is to join the extreme points. If it breaks doing that, you know for sure it is broken.

Another way of knowing which is correct is to draw the parallel on the tops of price (equidistant channel). I havenīt done it, but if you do it on the UsdIndex chart, you will know which version of the trendline is the accurate one.
Here it is. It seems my version is the accurate one.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: UsdIndex.jpg Size: 158 KB
Observation is the path to discovery.
  • #10,125
  • Apr 28, 2012 11:49am Apr 28, 2012 11:49am
Guys, do you know how many bars back the slope indicator repaints.
  • #10,126
  • Apr 28, 2012 11:52am Apr 28, 2012 11:52am
Quoting Jane_peters
Guys, do you know how many bars back the slope indicator repaints.
Whatever the period you have it set to. The default is 56.
Observation is the path to discovery.
  • #10,127
  • Apr 28, 2012 11:54am Apr 28, 2012 11:54am
Oh right, thank you
  • #10,128
  • Apr 28, 2012 12:07pm Apr 28, 2012 12:07pm
Quoting Alorente
For diversification. You donīt want to put all your eggs in one basket. Sooner or later, your basket will fall and the eggs will crack.
its true nobody likes when basket falls. it felt me like million times its painful.i made myself a production line which enables me that basket never falls
  • #10,129
  • Apr 28, 2012 12:08pm Apr 28, 2012 12:08pm
Quoting Alorente
The market climbs a wall of worry. In the end, it will fall, but when it (the market) wants to. You have to expect illogical behavior when you trade the markets. Itīs just the way it is. That is why it is so important to leave yourself plenty of rope. If you want to make big money in Forex, you have to learn to live with big drawdown sometimes...
Al in the spirit of leaving "plenty of rope " when trading, I am attaching a revised lot calculation excel sheet which indicates the lot size one has to use if he/she intends to utilise the recovery system. The user has to input the account size, lot size and leverage in the yellow shaded cells.
If the equity balance goes in negative territory (red filled cells) it means that the account will be called in before the final recovery level is reached. In other words the equity will not be sufficient should the trade reach the 4th and final stage of recovery.
(N.B. A pip represents $10. Also please note that the excel sheet is locked to prevent unintended deletion of the formulas. Should anyone wishes to amend anything, no password is required to unlock...just go to Review and click "Unprotect sheet".)
Attached File(s)
File Type: xls Extreme TMA Lot Size.xls   106 KB | 457 downloads
  • #10,130
  • Apr 28, 2012 12:10pm Apr 28, 2012 12:10pm
Quoting Alorente
I have to agree with you. Usd is on the edge of a cliff. It still has not quite broken the trendline you are referring to, but it is right on the verge of doing so. Monday will be critical.
Al, are you implying that you are now bearish iro the dollar (vs Euro, JPY & GBP)?
  • #10,131
  • Apr 28, 2012 12:21pm Apr 28, 2012 12:21pm
Quoting domino01
Al in the spirit of leaving "plenty of rope " when trading, I am attaching a revised lot calculation excel sheet which indicates the lot size one has to use if he/she intends to utilise the recovery system. The user has to input the account size, lot size and leverage in the yellow shaded cells.
If the equity balance goes in negative territory (red filled cells) it means that the account will be called in before the final recovery level is reached. In other words the equity will not be sufficient should the trade reach the 4th and final stage...
Please replace the previously posted excel sheet with the one below...the yellow cells wer also blocked in the excel sheet previously posted...
Sorry for any confusion...
Attached File(s)
File Type: xls Extreme TMA Lot Size.xls   106 KB | 531 downloads
  • #10,132
  • Apr 28, 2012 12:54pm Apr 28, 2012 12:54pm
Quoting Alorente
To avoid getting "creative" with trendlines, the best way is to join the extreme points. If it breaks doing that, you know for sure it is broken.

Another way of knowing which is correct is to draw the parallel on the tops of price (equidistant channel). I havenīt done it, but if you do it on the UsdIndex chart, you will know which version of the trendline is the accurate one.
Good points Al. Sometimes a channel can be drawn, and I have one on one of my other EOD charts at Stockcharts.com that was not updated. (could not make a proper channel on Futures) I just played around with it moving the top and bottom lines around and as usual, I can draw the channel a couple different ways, including having the lower line down around 78.25 which I thought looked best. Interestingly enough this corresponds directly to the next pivot lower, and the 200DMA is almost there. This is as low as the line can possibly be, the last possibly stand. We might be onto to something here, I smell a possibly fakeout.... (edit, actually I can get the line down to 77.90 or so right where the 200DMA is and still have the top channel line parallel)

This again kind of touches on my main point in the other post, that the market is not a perfect science as you know well.

Sometimes it respects a wick TL, other times it respect only a body TL, and sometimes will even respect both, even on the same move! (Like what would happen if the USD reversed right now at 78.80, or at 78.25). Sometimes you can draw a channel from wicks, sometimes bodies, and sometimes you have to use both wicks and bodies to keep the channel parallel (which is kind of what I did).

All one big game to keep us guessing....

Your other point is spot on and exactly how I play them, I actually draw both TL's on my charts usually to be safe when it's unclear. Give it the benefit of the doubt, your entry/exit might be a bit late, but I would rather that than getting faked out by assuming one TL is superior over the other. When you "eat the fish", its not important to eat the whole thing head, meat and tail, just the meat will make a good meal.


Quoting Alorente
Here it is. It seems my version is the accurate one.
You cheated, but worse than usual, you went right through the body!
(sadly, as Al knows, this actually happens where this still counts, its not usually the case though)
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: sc (1).jpg Size: 239 KB
  • #10,133
  • Apr 28, 2012 1:18pm Apr 28, 2012 1:18pm
Quoting domino01
Al, are you implying that you are now bearish iro the dollar (vs Euro, JPY & GBP)?
No, of course not. I expect to get a bounce on Monday, but in the end, if the technicals turn bearish, I will turn with them.
Observation is the path to discovery.
  • #10,134
  • Apr 28, 2012 1:30pm Apr 28, 2012 1:30pm
Quoting jayjonbeach
Good points Al. Sometimes a channel can be drawn, and I have one on one of my other EOD charts at Stockcharts.com that was not updated. (could not make a proper channel on Futures) I just played around with it moving the top and bottom lines around and as usual, I can draw the channel a couple different ways, including having the lower line down around 78.25 which I thought looked best. Interestingly enough this corresponds directly to the next pivot lower, and the 200DMA is almost there. This is as low as the line can possibly be, the last possibly...
You have the correct channel here. Iīve been building channels for decades and I can tell you this is the real one. Unfortunately this means that UsdIndex has a bit more to fall before it turns. I wish I had had this image some weeks ago. It would have saved me quite a bit of pips. My problem is neither one of my two brokers supplies a UsdIndex feed. If they did, I would have hit on this long ago.

Thanks a lot for supplying this. It is worth its weight in gold. Please, update it as we go forward.
Observation is the path to discovery.
  • #10,135
  • Apr 28, 2012 1:47pm Apr 28, 2012 1:47pm
Quoting jayjonbeach
Good points Al. Sometimes a channel can be drawn, and I have one on one of my other EOD charts at Stockcharts.com that was not updated. (could not make a proper channel on Futures) I just played around with it moving the top and bottom lines around and as usual, I can draw the channel a couple different ways, including having the lower line down around 78.25 which I thought looked best. Interestingly enough this corresponds directly to the next pivot lower, and the 200DMA is almost there. This is as low as the line can possibly be, the last possibly...

OMG are your serious with so much paint in your charts? jesus christ is this neccesary?
  • #10,136
  • Edited 2:15pm Apr 28, 2012 2:02pm | Edited 2:15pm
Quoting TravoltaImp
OMG are your serious with so much paint in your charts? jesus christ is this neccesary?
I have just edited and corrected your chart making both lines parallel like the must be. I believe the point where price will touch the lower TL will coincide with the 50% pivot and the 200 MA in the next few days. around 78.20. We may get a bounce before that happens that will consume some of the time left and allow us to lighten up and then short again when it hits 78.20.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: UsdIndex.jpg Size: 372 KB
Observation is the path to discovery.
  • #10,137
  • Apr 28, 2012 2:29pm Apr 28, 2012 2:29pm
Quoting TravoltaImp
OMG are your serious with so much paint in your charts? jesus christ is this neccesary?
hehehe
  • #10,138
  • Edited 3:55pm Apr 28, 2012 2:31pm | Edited 3:55pm
Quoting TravoltaImp
OMG are your serious with so much paint in your charts? jesus christ is this neccesary?
Glad to see someone suspended you, you've been trolling from your first post. My charts have been this way for years, its how I like them, and I'm not about to change them to please you, thanks.
  • #10,139
  • Apr 28, 2012 3:18pm Apr 28, 2012 3:18pm
Quoting Alorente
I have to agree with you. Usd is on the edge of a cliff. It still has not quite broken the trendline you are referring to, but it is right on the verge of doing so. Monday will be critical.
~~~~~~

thank you, Mr. Alfredo build this great thread for us.

Small question about " Usd is on the edge of a cliff ",

Since USD on the edge of trendline at USDollar index D1 Chart,

How to see it is true breakout or fake breakout ??

How long we monitor its action ? at D1 chart or H4, H1 chart ??


thank you in advance ~

SCOTT-ibm
  • #10,140
  • Apr 28, 2012 4:00pm Apr 28, 2012 4:00pm
Quoting Alorente
You have the correct channel here. Iīve been building channels for decades and I can tell you this is the real one. Unfortunately this means that UsdIndex has a bit more to fall before it turns. I wish I had had this image some weeks ago. It would have saved me quite a bit of pips.
Yeah this does seem pretty obvious now doesn't it. This is pretty much how it was for the last 4 months on this chart, thing is I've been watching the Futures chart (It's live, my other one is EOD only unfortunately) much more than this one and the first Trendline I pointed out on Futures was respected twice already by price so was focused on it. Guess we have new targets here now, hate it when that happens.

If this is what happens, its likely going to coincide with the SPX at least testing its high, possibly besting it. Should it fail to go higher, and the nice big H&S its making comes to pass, USD bulls will likely get their wish.
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