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Extreme TMA System

  • #10,101
  • Apr 28, 2012 1:58am Apr 28, 2012 1:58am
Quoting jayjonbeach
Indeed this is what I was warning someone about earlier in shorting Gold.

Gold put in two hammer candles on Daily on a very important Trendline, and has been moving up ever since. Its stuck on a small downward Trendline right now so its sandwiched for now. I plan to trade in the direction of whichever TL breaks, though I should have already been long when the hammers were confirmed yesterday as the odds look to be in longs favour here imho, especially if the USD keeps moving down.

The USD broke under a very important 8 month old TL,...
The Picture explains it all, where to enter where to put your stop and your limit order.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 1335481793-clip-13kb.png Size: 13 KB
Master Your Setup, Master Your self. (NQoos)
  • #10,102
  • Apr 28, 2012 2:16am Apr 28, 2012 2:16am
The spot gold market moved higher today off the well-defined bullish pin bar strategy . This pin bar setup showed clear rejection of support near $1630.00. We can see resistance comes in near $1680.00; we could see consolidation or a continuation of today’s up move into the weekend. Support is seen down near $1630.00 – $1612.00.

(Credit for the Pic and the commentary goes to Mr Nial fuller who's work has inspired me and changed my whole trading strategy and knowledge of the financial markets and i'm a big fan and follower since longtime.)

Thank you Nial.
Master Your Setup, Master Your self. (NQoos)
  • #10,103
  • Apr 28, 2012 3:07am Apr 28, 2012 3:07am
Just to complete the picture.He did broke D1 Down trendline too yesterday.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gld d1.gif Size: 41 KB
Master Your Setup, Master Your self. (NQoos)
  • #10,104
  • Apr 28, 2012 3:27am Apr 28, 2012 3:27am
nice intel, thank you for sharing
Quoting OzFXtrader82
http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/...8FQ5UM20120427
Tracking the Specialists.
  • #10,105
  • Apr 28, 2012 3:35am Apr 28, 2012 3:35am
Hello @all,

first I wanted to thank Al for this great thread.
EU tested again 1.3270 and bounced off yesterday. If we look on to the USDX chart the up trendline from august in my point of view is not broken and there is also a multiple tested resistance at 78.68 and will make a violant bounce to the upside. But as you all know there is everything possible in the forex market. We'll see next week

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: udx270412.png Size: 39 KB
  • #10,106
  • Apr 28, 2012 4:46am Apr 28, 2012 4:46am
i dont understand why everybody is chasing multiple pairs.its very easy job if you focus on 1 pair.more pips that you could ever imagine. up and down 50-150 pips per day. if thats not enough that i dont know what it is?
  • #10,107
  • Apr 28, 2012 6:39am Apr 28, 2012 6:39am
hi Alorente,

just a thought. You might improve the speed and Pc load of some of your MTF indicators (e.g. Slop) by using ArrayCopySeries instead of the iClose etc..


Cheers
Ati
Money is important, Love is essential.
  • #10,108
  • Apr 28, 2012 7:53am Apr 28, 2012 7:53am
I have created a system that should help us maximize picking trades that are with the trend in a maximum of time frames. Monitoring 15Min, H1, and H4 is not enough. We must keep an eye on D1 and W1 to make sure we are not going against the longer term direction of the pair. The excel file below should help us do that.

The color codes are current as of today.
Attached File(s)
File Type: xls Extreme TMA Entry-Exit System.xls   25 KB | 1,102 downloads
Observation is the path to discovery.
  • #10,109
  • Apr 28, 2012 10:36am Apr 28, 2012 10:36am
Quoting Alorente
I have created a system that should help us maximize picking trades that are with the trend in a maximum of time frames. Monitoring 15Min, H1, and H4 is not enough. We must keep an eye on D1 and W1 to make sure we are not going against the longer term direction of the pair. The excel file below should help us do that.

The color codes are current as of today.
Hello Al,
Are you using D1 and W1 TMA bands at 2.0 as H1 and H4?

Thank you
Sabrina
  • #10,110
  • Apr 28, 2012 11:19am Apr 28, 2012 11:19am
Quoting Grins
The Recovery System

I'm thinking out loud here and would like to know if I'm clear on this. Let's say I'm risking 1% kicking Recovery in at 100 pips.

At 100 pips underwater my risk is 1% , level 2 = 3%, level 3 = 6%, level 4 = 10%, pull the plug at level 5= 14%

So, if this thing runs it's course and New Zealand slips into the sea along with the NZ$ my usdnzd short will cost me 14% of my account starting with 1% risk profile.

I'm not doing this to scare myself or anyone else, the chances of pulling a plug at level 5 are extremely rare...
I have never been beyond level 3 sop I would have to say it is extremely improbable. I would not lower Level 2 to 50 pips. 100 pips is already half of what nanningbob recommends.

In order to compare how much that Level 5 trade would cost you, you would have to put the money amount next to the money you would save over the year from no stop losses. I donīt think any of us have a precise answer to your question.
Observation is the path to discovery.
  • #10,111
  • Apr 28, 2012 11:23am Apr 28, 2012 11:23am
Some thought on eu for some people regarding macro picture i know many are waiting for that drop.

Europe’s going to be in a recession and they’re going to have to print more money and be looser and the usa. is going to have a stronger economy than them by quite a bit,There’s a lot of headwinds coming in the euro zone and the question is how the ECB responds. Especially with spain now back in the picture again. Also things start to look like Hollande is gonna get victory I think to get positioned short before the election isnt bad until then whe could probally see eu drift bit more up. maybe 1.34 1.35 or so The final decision is on may 6 so that will be great trading day for eu traders pretty sure that speculators would see a win of hollande bearish for eu. allwel not sure how far the drop is gonna be because i am also kinda bearish on usd on the fomc meeting in june if the labor market in the us keeps dissapointing i think the fed is gonna do qe3 keeping my eyes especially on next nfp comming friday.
  • #10,112
  • Apr 28, 2012 11:30am Apr 28, 2012 11:30am
Quoting jayjonbeach
Indeed this is what I was warning someone about earlier in shorting Gold.

Gold put in two hammer candles on Daily on a very important Trendline, and has been moving up ever since. Its stuck on a small downward Trendline right now so its sandwiched for now. I plan to trade in the direction of whichever TL breaks, though I should have already been long when the hammers were confirmed yesterday as the odds look to be in longs favour here imho, especially if the USD keeps moving down.

The USD broke under a very important 8 month old TL, if it...
I have to agree with you. Usd is on the edge of a cliff. It still has not quite broken the trendline you are referring to, but it is right on the verge of doing so. Monday will be critical.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Observation is the path to discovery.
  • #10,113
  • Apr 28, 2012 11:36am Apr 28, 2012 11:36am
Quoting Markillo
Hi Big Al! I downloaded the pack, and I have a Question you use scalping with the old Rules right?

What does the Big White dots mean?

Que opinas con lo sucedido con el Real Madrid y el Barcelona??
The white dots appear at points where there is a high probability that the leg is over. It is not written in stone though, because they will repaint if price goes higher, but they are a good indicator for possible exit, since it tells you that the move is getting close to the end.

No soy de ninguno de los dos. Soy colchonero. A ver si ganamos la final de la Europa League.
Observation is the path to discovery.
  • #10,114
  • Apr 28, 2012 11:40am Apr 28, 2012 11:40am
Quoting domino01
S&P downgrades Spain's sovereign credit...UK officially in recession since last Wednesday......and how does the market react? Euro and Ģ sky rocket. Are we traders irrational or are the markets being manipulated.
Maybe we should start betting on football matches or maybe not given this UEFA champion's league semi final results (sorry Al).
Just some food for thought for the weekend. Nice weekend to all traders...
The market climbs a wall of worry. In the end, it will fall, but when it (the market) wants to. You have to expect illogical behavior when you trade the markets. Itīs just the way it is. That is why it is so important to leave yourself plenty of rope. If you want to make big money in Forex, you have to learn to live with big drawdown sometimes...
Observation is the path to discovery.
  • #10,115
  • Apr 28, 2012 12:10pm Apr 28, 2012 12:10pm
Quoting rumbaut
Hello all again

I would like to add my 2 cents here to that wonderful system. Attached is the pict where i show my exit criteria scalping with TMA 15m

Note: I don't know what happened when i uploaded the pict , if you see the lower sema , left to it is a vertical line, in the windows indicators part this vertical line was moved to right, the correct position is aligned with the vertical line in price chart. In that way you see how fxcx forex trend is align with the entry.

Sorry for my English

Thanks

Jose
How can you get both the M1 TMA and the M15 TMA to show up in a M15 chart? I tried many times and I canīt do it. Please, explain. This is very important for me.

I can never get a smaller TMA to show up in a higher periodicity chart. For example, M15 TMA wonīt show up in a H1 chart and if I set it to 1 minute, then the H1 TMA doesnīt show up, etc...

I see it can be done by looking at your chart. Please, help...
Observation is the path to discovery.
  • #10,116
  • Apr 28, 2012 12:13pm Apr 28, 2012 12:13pm
Quoting rumbaut
Hello all again

I would like to add my 2 cents here to that wonderful system. Attached is the pict where i show my exit criteria scalping with TMA 15m

Note: I don't know what happened when i uploaded the pict , if you see the lower sema , left to it is a vertical line, in the windows indicators part this vertical line was moved to right, the correct position is aligned with the vertical line in price chart. In that way you see how fxcx forex trend is align with the entry.

Sorry for my English

Thanks

Jose
Also, how do you get a 50 MA of 1 min, on a 15 Min. chart? Another one I would love to use.
Observation is the path to discovery.
  • #10,117
  • Apr 28, 2012 12:16pm Apr 28, 2012 12:16pm
Hi Al, do you know if there is an indicator that could show us the divergence but on a higher time frame, a MTF trix divergence indicator.

Regards
Indicators always obey Price, not the other way.
  • #10,118
  • Apr 28, 2012 1:17pm Apr 28, 2012 1:17pm
Quoting Alorente
I have to agree with you. Usd is on the edge of a cliff. It still has not quite broken the trendline you are referring to, but it is right on the verge of doing so. Monday will be critical.
Hehehe Al your true USD bull colours are showing! lol


You bring up a very important point here that we should briefly touch on, Trendlines, like many things in charting, can also be looked at subjectively.

On the chart I'm posting, my TL is just a touch higher and through the candle wick where yours is just touching the wick.

Over the years you discover one fundamental truth about this, neither one is more valid than the other.

So while my TL "connects more dots" and I would argue 'looks' more correct because the market seems to have respected it a couple of times, I would also argue yours is just as valid and I've seen it happen so many times where the wick TL actually holds up, especially in Futures.

Quoting jayjonbeach

The USD broke under a very important 8 month old TL, if it also breaks under the 78.80 pivot it is now fighting with, I don't like the USD any more and favour Gold
Indeed we agree, no matter how you cut it, the wick TL sits right at 78.80 an important pivot.

I'm sure Bearish USD Traders would say the TL failed, was successfully back-tested and is now bound to head lower, and price does seem to have reacted that way, we have to give them that. I have not placed my bets either way, but will next week. Should be interesting for sure, especially if we see some US Market volatility.
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  • #10,119
  • Apr 28, 2012 1:28pm Apr 28, 2012 1:28pm
Quoting TravoltaImp
i dont understand why everybody is chasing multiple pairs.its very easy job if you focus on 1 pair.more pips that you could ever imagine. up and down 50-150 pips per day. if thats not enough that i dont know what it is?
For diversification. You donīt want to put all your eggs in one basket. Sooner or later, your basket will fall and the eggs will crack.
Observation is the path to discovery.
  • #10,120
  • Apr 28, 2012 1:30pm Apr 28, 2012 1:30pm
Quoting Ati Baia
hi Alorente,

just a thought. You might improve the speed and Pc load of some of your MTF indicators (e.g. Slop) by using ArrayCopySeries instead of the iClose etc..


Cheers
Ati
Please, explain in more detail. I am not knowledgeable in programming. Thanks.
Observation is the path to discovery.
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