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Walk the Talk from a fun loving discretionary trader 46 replies

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Cesarnc's market talk, gossips, rumours & fun

  • #26,281
  • Apr 27, 2012 1:59am Apr 27, 2012 1:59am
Spain Downgrade...
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  • #26,282
  • Apr 27, 2012 5:25am Apr 27, 2012 5:25am
Well, I would not normally take a position on a Friday with a view to holding, but today I did, and am short EG... the plan being for price to stay below 0.8170 come market close for me to hold out.

I like the flow on EG, believe confidence is with Sterling and not Euro, and have read of horrific pain across European states south of the Franco-Germanic axis that becomes more frail by the day. Add to this the unprecedented anti-democratic hurdles being thrown in the way of an election, never mind a fair one, in Greece, and I think next month may see some interesting changes occurring.
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Author of: For Pip's Sake! (Available at Amazon... :-) )
  • #26,283
  • Apr 27, 2012 5:34am Apr 27, 2012 5:34am
Quoting dswk
Spain Downgrade...
...and no real crash. It beggars belief, and confirms to me that it is either priced in, or the market are not willing to bet against probable SNB-style propping up of the Euro.

Anyone note that 1 in 4 Spaniards are without work? How Brussels is undermining the democratic process in Greece, and thus derailing the planned elections in a week's time? Noted how both Hollande and Sarko the barko said prior to the first round that they would re-evaluate their commitment to austerity measures and deference to Brussels, and once past the post by stealing the moderate right-wing vote from the other candidates, now reneged on their promises and reverted back to type... that is, breaking the rules as outlined in such treaties as the Lisbon and reaffiring their commitment to the edicts proclaimed by Brussels whilst expecting citizens to obey the rules that make them poorer by the day.

System stinks...

On a lighter note, the peas are starting to grow in the section of the garden given over to food propagation. They're only a inch or so high at the moment, and not much more than a small leaf, but I have faith...
Author of: For Pip's Sake! (Available at Amazon... :-) )
  • #26,284
  • Apr 27, 2012 5:54am Apr 27, 2012 5:54am
mi everyone...........just woke up. did the short yen play last night and it was weird to say the least.....quite the whipsaw into the announcement for one thing. it knocked out 1 G/J and just missed the 2nd. i had C/Js and U/Js but no stops so was saved

on U/J price dropped down to 80.50 (i was in at 81.00 on the first lots)

then, price levitated at 80.70 and the BOJ number hit...the 1st report had it at 40 trillion

time literally stood still so i loaded the boat at 80.70 (literally had a 1 minute candle which seemed like forever to add so pulled the trigger) and then it rocketed

beyond 81.50 it stalled and other headlines were coming in clarifying the initial announcement by BOJ that the program was to be increased from 65 trillion to 70 trillion

long story short the net was 5 trillion and the extension for JGB was from 2 yrs to 3 so as price started to pull back i bailed and ran

i had intended to re load around 81.20 but hesitated.......went to sleep and woke up to find the thing retraced all the way back to below 80.50

better to be lucky than good and not greedy.......that is one trade i will not forget

and the DOW........up over 13, 225 pushing the previous tops........amazing

prices are all over the board here........right, US GDP this morning.
  • #26,285
  • Apr 27, 2012 6:01am Apr 27, 2012 6:01am
I must be honest and say that when I read of your plan yesterday, I was not sure if it was going to play out for you.

My own take is that one can play the BOJ intervention, but it seems to always retrace back to the point upon which it was initiated. It would seem that a lot more than 5T will be needed to change the fortunes of the Yen.

Right... time for the first glass of the weekend. Yep, working from home has its perks... just hope nobody asks for a lucid reply to an e-mail in a few hours.

Quoting roro53
mi everyone...........just woke up. did the short yen play last night and it was weird to say the least.....quite the whipsaw into the announcement for one thing. it knocked out 1 G/J and just missed the 2nd. i had C/Js and U/Js but no stops so was saved

on U/J price dropped down to 80.50 (i was in at 81.00 on the first lots)

then, price levitated at 80.70 and the BOJ number hit...the 1st report had it at 40 trillion

time literally stood still so i loaded the boat at 80.70 (literally had a 1 minute candle which seemed like forever to add...
Author of: For Pip's Sake! (Available at Amazon... :-) )
  • #26,286
  • Apr 27, 2012 6:06am Apr 27, 2012 6:06am
budak baru - shame we did not meet when last I was in Melaka. Regularly staying in the Holiday Inn... although hate the weekends there when all of Singapore seem to turn up.
Author of: For Pip's Sake! (Available at Amazon... :-) )
  • #26,287
  • Apr 27, 2012 6:31am Apr 27, 2012 6:31am
to be honest watching the odd pa into the print i really thought i was about to take a loss

when the print hit the wires i figured i was done but then the misreported numbers came up and the market reversed

it was a risky trade but i figured the BOJ had to come with at least 5 T and some kind of twist to the JGB buying

saved by the skin of my teeth as my mother used to say gb her soul.

lets put it this way; i lucked out and i'll be a lot happier with my bubba (vin) tonight than if i had not

i even put an entry order on at 80.50 before knocking off last night and then had second thoughts so came back and removed it only to find the morning the buggar had actually retraced all the way back down to the spike low of 80.50

go figure......it is beyond me, and looking at the DOW it is a mirror of AU climbing in a steady 2H channel

don't know what to make of it really...maybe the wine later will help

ps four five....i agree with your take about it taking a lot more than 5 T....i thought there was a chance maybe BOJ/MOF had collaborated to blow out the BOJs balance sheet and drop an atomic number so liked the RR and was prepared to take a loss and/or hold a drawdown. i did have a plan in the event it went against me. if it was atomic like the tsunami intervention i figured it was a trade worth at least 300 to 500 pips per lot

Quoting 45Condor
I must be honest and say that when I read of your plan yesterday, I was not sure if it was going to play out for you.

My own take is that one can play the BOJ intervention, but it seems to always retrace back to the point upon which it was initiated. It would seem that a lot more than 5T will be needed to change the fortunes of the Yen.

Right... time for the first glass of the weekend. Yep, working from home has its perks... just hope nobody asks for a lucid reply to an e-mail in a few hours.
  • #26,288
  • Apr 27, 2012 8:38am Apr 27, 2012 8:38am
so tempted to short the Dow/S&P but the message is CLEAR - the printers are being warmed up
  • #26,289
  • Apr 27, 2012 10:22am Apr 27, 2012 10:22am
kill this bull
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  • #26,290
  • Apr 27, 2012 11:20am Apr 27, 2012 11:20am
dswk......you know, i think i got bitch slapped so many times trying to short the Dow on fundamentals and technicals against the printing machine since the first QEs that it finally maybe sunk in. kind of shows you maybe i am a bit slow too., but i'll be first to admit that

Quoting dswk
kill this bull
  • #26,291
  • Apr 27, 2012 11:27am Apr 27, 2012 11:27am
Quoting roro53
dswk......you know, i think i got bitch slapped so many times trying to short the Dow on fundamentals and technicals against the printing machine since the first QEs that it finally maybe sunk in. kind of shows you maybe i am a bit slow too., but i'll be first to admit that
I hear that loud and clear... surprised my face isn't a permanent shade of red with the amiunt of slaps that I've received as of late.
Author of: For Pip's Sake! (Available at Amazon... :-) )
  • #26,292
  • Apr 27, 2012 11:32am Apr 27, 2012 11:32am
i thought you were off drinking vin somewhere already, four five?

being on EST i have to wait it out until after 5 but already got the bottle and ice ready for later.

Quoting 45Condor
I hear that loud and clear... surprised my face isn't a permanent shade of red with the amiunt of slaps that I've received as of late.
  • #26,293
  • Apr 27, 2012 11:50am Apr 27, 2012 11:50am
Quoting roro53
i thought you were off drinking vin somewhere already, four five?

being on EST i have to wait it out until after 5 but already got the bottle and ice ready for later.
Yes, been drinking since the afternoon broke here in France. 7 hours ago... although slipped a siesta in, so still retain a couple of faculties at present, but that won't last long.

Enjoy your breaking of 'vinfast' - if such a word can be used.
Author of: For Pip's Sake! (Available at Amazon... :-) )
  • #26,294
  • Apr 27, 2012 12:12pm Apr 27, 2012 12:12pm
hmm. thanks. love the french, especially the women, and the countryside. not bad with a flyrod and poaching a stream for a trout or salmon........there are few nice ones over in your neck of the woods if you know what i mean. lol

enjoy le rouge....salute

Quoting 45Condor
Yes, been drinking since the afternoon broke here in France. 7 hours ago... although slipped a siesta in, so still retain a couple of faculties at present, but that won't last long.

Enjoy your breaking of 'vinfast' - if such a word can be used.
  • #26,295
  • Apr 27, 2012 1:09pm Apr 27, 2012 1:09pm
Been out all day up and down the M6. Back in Merry Scotland now and chilling. (I believe I just ruined another street cred phrase, they'll have to move on...)

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Just have one, drink responsibly. Have ten if you have been following my trade calls. Big Issue anyone?
Gone to a better place
  • #26,296
  • Apr 27, 2012 2:29pm Apr 27, 2012 2:29pm
http://ts1.mm.bing.net/images/thumbn...9894b547_z.jpghttp://ts2.mm.bing.net/images/thumbn...iller-lite.jpg

http://ts4.mm.bing.net/images/thumbn...iller-lite.jpg
The Chonchy
  • #26,297
  • Apr 27, 2012 2:32pm Apr 27, 2012 2:32pm
wierd market today.
All that is left in FF is just plain garbage. "Cloggie"
  • #26,298
  • Apr 27, 2012 5:46pm Apr 27, 2012 5:46pm
love the highlands, the rivers and salmon fishing

love big intervale, and springbank too

Quoting smikester
Been out all day up and down the M6. Back in Merry Scotland now and chilling. (I believe I just ruined another street cred phrase, they'll have to move on...)

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Just have one, drink responsibly. Have ten if you have been following my trade calls. Big Issue anyone?
  • #26,299
  • Apr 27, 2012 5:56pm Apr 27, 2012 5:56pm
wonder what hermit is up to.......picking grapes or making films?
  • #26,300
  • Apr 27, 2012 8:43pm Apr 27, 2012 8:43pm
Quoting roro53
wonder what hermit is up to.......picking grapes or making films?

........I don't know what fxhermit is doing or condor45 but I got drunk, f%$# it.............

http://26.media.tumblr.com/HNnQ2KyXJ...ER0mo1_400.jpg

http://28.media.tumblr.com/HNnQ2KyXJ...PC8Lo1_400.jpg
The Chonchy
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