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  • #10,981
  • Apr 26, 2012 5:47pm Apr 26, 2012 5:47pm
Quoting Saxon
Ya, i got pushed out. Thanks FOMC
Yep! Me too but I'm thickheaded! So Back in..Showing Bearish Butterfly on 4hr and fell a bit better now after Spain downgrade..But GU is being a bugger. AU and EU the dollors doing more damage with CAD/JPY giveing some good pips to the south.GL! ( those top 2 are limit orders..btw)
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  • #10,982
  • Apr 26, 2012 7:27pm Apr 26, 2012 7:27pm
Quoting Chillypiper
Yep! Me too but I'm thickheaded! So Back in..Showing Bearish Butterfly on 4hr and fell a bit better now after Spain downgrade..But GU is being a bugger. AU and EU the dollors doing more damage with CAD/JPY giveing some good pips to the south.GL! ( those top 2 are limit orders..btw)
Well I am still in it, I added one more short at 1.62. I was up close to 200 pips for the week, there goes half of hard earned pips....lol.
Find a job that you love and you dont have to work again in your life.
  • #10,983
  • Apr 27, 2012 12:08am Apr 27, 2012 12:08am
I've been watching A/U for days now but still on the sidelines. Now awaiting a test of the old UTL for a good bullish candle to force me into a long.
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When this baby hits 88 miles per hour, you're gonna see some serious s***.
  • #10,984
  • Apr 27, 2012 1:07am Apr 27, 2012 1:07am
I hate being patient sometimes.....
Setting my SL to BE on this one and going to catch a few hours of zzzzz
Im with you on that one too Marc
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  • #10,985
  • Apr 28, 2012 11:36am Apr 28, 2012 11:36am
Quoting Saxon
I hate being patient sometimes.....
Setting my SL to BE on this one and going to catch a few hours of zzzzz
Im with you on that one too Marc
Got stopped at BE on that one. Ah well.

On a side note, my neighbors kept me up till 5 in the morning
So I turned my speakers against the wall this morning and introduced them to some Maiden, full tilt.
I could hear them freaking out in there. So I'm assuming they must have loved it

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  • #10,986
  • Apr 29, 2012 5:32pm Apr 29, 2012 5:32pm
Hi All
Monday morning here in Sydney. Beautiful weekend, weather was perfect after a long long time. For those who are long on AU, dont forget the cash rate announcement this week. Rate cut expectation is on the card. I will be closing longs today and looking for short entries around 1.056.
Good luck.
Find a job that you love and you dont have to work again in your life.
  • #10,987
  • Apr 29, 2012 8:27pm Apr 29, 2012 8:27pm
Quoting tradoholic
Hi All
Monday morning here in Sydney. Beautiful weekend, weather was perfect after a long long time. For those who are long on AU, dont forget the cash rate announcement this week. Rate cut expectation is on the card. I will be closing longs today and looking for short entries around 1.056.
Good luck.
hi,

seems like it is very much a bad news is good news market and Bernanke and Yellen explicitly inferring stimulus in recent speeches which kind of throws trying to trade economic data prints under the bus

be nice to see a few central bankers thrown under for a change

the Dow is pushing its recent highs and other indexes lagging so i am guessing if it breaks higher then the S&P follows

nothing like printing, or the real prospect of it to scare off the sellers

best bet for being short equities and long USD in this upside down market is when the Treasury needs to sell debt, imo
  • #10,988
  • Apr 29, 2012 10:28pm Apr 29, 2012 10:28pm
NU is ready for a drop. Getting close to my limit sell.
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  • #10,989
  • Apr 30, 2012 11:43pm Apr 30, 2012 11:43pm
Quoting tradoholic
Hi All
Monday morning here in Sydney. Beautiful weekend, weather was perfect after a long long time. For those who are long on AU, dont forget the cash rate announcement this week. Rate cut expectation is on the card. I will be closing longs today and looking for short entries around 1.056.
Good luck.
RBA announced a rate cut of 0.5% down to 3.75%. For a conservative RBA this means lots more than meets the eye.
Just closed shorts now with just under 130 pips. Will wait for a bit of pull back before I go short again.
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  • #10,990
  • May 1, 2012 2:57am May 1, 2012 2:57am
Quoting tradoholic
RBA announced a rate cut of 0.5% down to 3.75%. For a conservative RBA this means lots more than meets the eye.
hi,

that was a pretty interesting comment. i take it you mean the RBA is LOT more concerned than it is letting on in public?

if so then the premise has to be the FED knows too.
  • #10,991
  • Edited 7:40am May 1, 2012 3:27am | Edited 7:40am
Quoting roro53
hi,

that was a pretty interesting comment. i take it you mean the RBA is LOT more concerned than it is letting on in public?

if so then the premise has to be the FED knows too.
Hi,
I am sure that is the case. They have now realised that they raised the rates too much too early and killed a lot of small businesses. But its like taking vitamin C after catching cold. For now, I am enjoying the ride on AU and NU. Getting in and out has been pretty good.
I didnt close my GU and removed the SL as it is around the highs of the year. So a bit of loss there. Good luck.
Find a job that you love and you dont have to work again in your life.
  • #10,992
  • May 1, 2012 3:39am May 1, 2012 3:39am
Quoting tradoholic
Hi,
I am sure that is the case. They have now realised that they raised the rates too much too early and killed a lot of small businesses. But its like taking vitamin C after catching cold. For now, I am enjoying the ride on AU and NU. Getting in and out has been pretty good.
I didnt close my GU and removed the SL as it is around the highs of the year. So a bit of loss there. Good year.
Good on you, mate as my pal from NZ likes to say.......speaking of which, do you think RBNZ will follow suit and cut also?

GU taking it a bit after that weak print, but the selling has been very tepid off that .6280 top.......read the other day that SNB has been buying.

i enjoy the discussion, thx.
  • #10,993
  • May 1, 2012 4:14am May 1, 2012 4:14am
Good morning folks.

What do we have on the chart?
Descending resistance line (RED) AND a little bit above confluence of 4-5 Fibo levels AND magic round number 1.3300.
This all together makes me think that this could be a possible “REVERSAL ZONE”, or if not reversal, then at least CORRECTION zone (GREEN)
If resistance line didn't hold, the 1.3300 should stop the price.
We’re now in a 5th wave of uptrend from April 16th, price is loosing momentum and a bigger correction is more likely then ever before.

But remember, many NEWS ahead this week
This scenario is rejected, when price breaks and holds above 1.3300.
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  • #10,994
  • May 3, 2012 4:43pm May 3, 2012 4:43pm
HI All,
Update on NU chart that I posted on 29th March.
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  • #10,995
  • May 3, 2012 5:22pm May 3, 2012 5:22pm
Closed all shorts in AUD, it is at a critical stage as can be seen in the charts. It is also Friday today, so carry trade could take it up giving us better opportunity to short it next week. I am still short in GU which I doubled up last week. Building up my position there for a possible pull back to 1.58xx.
Good Luck all.
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  • #10,996
  • May 8, 2012 9:22pm May 8, 2012 9:22pm
We had the Budget delivered last night. As expected, hand out galore. Govt is putting their bribe in the middle class pockets to attract the lost votes for next election. I was sitting and just watching the treasurer deliver the budget which is full of bull.... directed at the most vulnerable just wanting their votes. Then again that is labour govt. They screw up for a few terms, and leave the task of making it back up to liberals.
What we can expect in my opinion:
Behind all their smoke clouds, the govt has made all their calculations based on AUD/USD rate of 1.03. Anything below will hurt trade deficit, and increase inflation. On the other hand the govt is expecting to reduce inflation to 2.5% which will allow for another rate cut. Some economists are expecting official rates of under 3% within 12 months. In this case keeping a rate of 1.03 will be next to impossible and thats why the markets have been selling AUD. it could also be possible that the govt knows something that we don't know, i.e devaluation of USD, or another GFC in the making.
I went heavily short yesterday on AU and NZU as the budget was being delivered yesterday. Will close late this afternoon. Expecting a rebound during NY session. Depending on technicals, I will be going Long AU, in NY session for a reboumd of about 100-200 pips.
Good luck all.
Find a job that you love and you dont have to work again in your life.
  • #10,997
  • May 9, 2012 5:10am May 9, 2012 5:10am
Good Morning Traders
Well, not much to say, everything on my chart.
This is my plan for today.
I think we are in a corrective movement after which we should see new lows…
Scenario rejected if price gets below 1.2950

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  • #10,998
  • May 9, 2012 12:38pm May 9, 2012 12:38pm
nice call.......i read that this morning when price was down around 35/40 and went long on the next drop with a stop just below parity........1.35PM ET and 1.0075

nice inside Australia analysis too. thx.

Quote
Original post by tradoholic

Depending on technicals, I will be going Long AU, in NY session for a rebound of about 100-200 pips.
  • #10,999
  • May 9, 2012 7:37pm May 9, 2012 7:37pm
Quoting roro53
nice call.......i read that this morning when price was down around 35/40 and went long on the next drop with a stop just below parity........1.35PM ET and 1.0075

nice inside Australia analysis too. thx.
Well done and thanks for the remarks.
Find a job that you love and you dont have to work again in your life.
  • #11,000
  • May 10, 2012 5:04am May 10, 2012 5:04am
Good morning folks.
Bang, Bang, Bang … I was shot dead like a rabbit on my yesterday LONG.
Though I still think the overall risk-reward ratio was worth to try.

What's on radar today?
I am sure the correction is around the corner.
The problem is only WHEN and WHERE, as fundamentals and short term technical signals do not go along together. Not at all.
Technically, some timeframes showing bullish divergence, many oscillators on “oversold” areas.
On the other hand we are not sit on any important Fibo or support level.
Fundamentally, a threat of Greek tragedy still hovers above the Eurozone.

I think strong bears will try to bring the price even lower below 1.2900, as we have very important and strong 1.2865 level there.
This is a cluster of weekly support and few Fibonacci lines, which could be a good foundation to high jump.
On the other side, 1.2970 still holds well and some impatient bulls will try to break it during the day.
Hmm. I don’t know which way should I go today…
So guys, watch closely those levels and trade smart.

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