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Extreme TMA System

  • #9,961
  • Apr 26, 2012 7:36am Apr 26, 2012 7:36am
USD Unemployment Claims Actual 388
Forecast 374

Yuppi........
Master Your Setup, Master Your self. (NQoos)
  • #9,962
  • Apr 26, 2012 7:39am Apr 26, 2012 7:39am
Quoting bassramy
USD Unemployment Claims Actual 388
Forecast 374

Yuppi........
and........NOTHING!!!!! What a hell!

L.
  • #9,963
  • Apr 26, 2012 7:56am Apr 26, 2012 7:56am
UC, UP, EJ, UCHF IS MOVING, EU GU Is stalling god knows why waiting for the Pending Home Sales m/m To join the party maybe.
Master Your Setup, Master Your self. (NQoos)
  • #9,964
  • Apr 26, 2012 8:22am Apr 26, 2012 8:22am
Tracking the Specialists.
  • #9,965
  • Edited 9:06am Apr 26, 2012 8:25am | Edited 9:06am
usdjpy, an interesting convergence between S1 and H4 TMA

Just my take..., this market is driven by sentiment at the moment, it's been very good at ignoring fundamentals most of this year. There was a great deal of money sidelined last year, money managers had to put that money back to work so a bunch of idle cash has been put into the risk market. In addition to that Operation Twist is ongoing as the Fed rolls over short term maturing bonds into longer term bonds to keep long term costs to borrowers low. The euro is strong due in part to support from China who needs a strong euro since the EZ is the primary consumer of Chinese exports. ECB wants an elevated euro to lend credence to the whole EZ experiment. The US wants a strong euro slightly less than a weak dollar.

So, all that drivel is my way of saying data is largely ignored right now. It will turn but I have no idea when..., when the big money managers start liquidating positions in the risk market..., or the data simply overwhelms the general suspension of disbelief.

Al has given us the perfect vehicle for trading this market.

I am new here, already I have learned a great deal and I'm grateful to those willing to put their thoughts out there. If I overstep my bounds as a newbie I respond well to gentle correction.

Lee
"The more I practice the luckier I get." Gary Player
  • #9,966
  • Apr 26, 2012 10:50am Apr 26, 2012 10:50am
Quoting Grins
usdjpy, an interesting convergence between S1 and H4 TMA

Just my take..., this market is driven by sentiment at the moment, it's been very good at ignoring fundamentals most of this year...If I overstep my bounds as a newbie I respond well to gentle correction.

Lee
I don't think anyone here cares whether you are a newbie, or whatever is the opposite, oldbie, perhaps?

What matters is the effort you put into your contribution, and, personally, I think that what you said was very insightful, and obvious, when I think about it. It was lurking there in the dark corners of my mind, so when you pointed out that the current market condition was sentiment driven, it gave me a "Well, duh!" moment, because it was something that I was observing anyway, but didn't have the right framework to express it! Thanks!

I've read a lot different explanations of why the market is behaving the way it is, usually coupled with a forecast of what will eventually happen. It seems to me that many times the explanations are a bit too complex, and, while often brilliant, tend to be unintentionally laced with personal opinion that oversteps the bounds of what we can really know. Your simple observation, that a sentiment driven market often ignores fundamentals, has helped me understand what the market is currently telling us by its actions.

Very helpful. Thanks, again.
The mind thinks, the heart knows...
  • #9,967
  • Apr 26, 2012 10:53am Apr 26, 2012 10:53am
I have been using the extreme tma system on EUR/USD..
Seeing some great moves, mostly 1 or 2 very good moves daily..

I Wanted to ask other traders,
what other currency pairs do you see good moves on M15 tf. ?

Any personal experiences /suggestions?
  • #9,968
  • Apr 26, 2012 11:10am Apr 26, 2012 11:10am
Quoting Grins
...this market is driven by sentiment at the moment...
I agree with Ever E Man in that you make a solid observation. So, newbie or not you're heading in the right direction and your contribution is of value. It's something I always underestimate and so I often do not post. I have plenty of thoughts but with so many people posting I usually figure, what for? So, don't worry about overstepping as any input is of value to someone.

For me, I NEVER try to figure out the market. The day I stopped caring why something was happening or trying to figure out what might happen next is the day I started becoming consistently profitable.
  • #9,969
  • Apr 26, 2012 11:42am Apr 26, 2012 11:42am
E.E Man, Yogi, thanks guys.
"The more I practice the luckier I get." Gary Player
  • #9,970
  • Apr 26, 2012 11:53am Apr 26, 2012 11:53am
Quoting Ever E. Man
...Your simple observation, that a sentiment driven market often ignores fundamentals,...
I suspect that China may be helping prop up the EUR, along with other power players, but it would be impossible, IMHO, to know who, why, or what their motives are, exactly, without being privy to all the ongoing secret communications, negociations, etc. which the power players are certainly engaging in to stay in power (and, thereby, enhance their personal self interests.)

As Merkel so candidly put it at the beginning of the EUR crisis, "We (those in power) know exactly what needs to be done; we just don't know how to do it and get re-elected!"

Fortunately, I don't believe as traders that it's important to know all the inside information (though many seem to find it fascinating to endlessly speculate, opine, and guess at the unknowable. )

In fact, IMHO, it could be harmful to speculate and form a solid opinion about something you cannot know. It might create a bias that can negatively effect your actions, causing you to make the wrong decisions at critical times because of something you think you know that may, or may not be true. Price action, itself, may be a much better indicator than speculation if you know how to read it.

My best guess at how to read it, based on my meager (compared to Al's and others') experience of twelve years, will follow.
The mind thinks, the heart knows...
  • #9,971
  • Apr 26, 2012 11:54am Apr 26, 2012 11:54am
I ve been following this trend like a month ago, and i ve been doing OK.

right now im kind off concerned but at the same time waiting for the trigger that will drop the EUR as Al said.

right now i have an open position SHORT, i opened at 1.3170 and today i got panic and i was going to close the position and assume a loss, but looking at my daily chart I saw that the EUR found a Resistance with the 200 EMA and I think it is kind of inside the Channel!
also RSI looks good in days and i think I will wait for the trix change off color for confirmation..

Any recommendation?? Is someone still waiting for the Big drop with open positions?
  • #9,972
  • Edited 1:54pm Apr 26, 2012 11:59am | Edited 1:54pm
Quoting Yogi3o3
...you make a solid observation. So, newbie or not you're heading in the right direction and your contribution is of value. It's something I always underestimate and so I often do not post. I have plenty of thoughts but with so many people posting I usually figure, what for? So, don't worry about overstepping as any input is of value to someone.

For me, I NEVER try to figure out the market. The day I stopped caring why something was happening or trying to figure out what might happen next is the day I started becoming consistently profitable....
Right on, Yogi, and since you made the case for your posting more often, I hope you will. The more clearly we can all think, the better we'll trade IMHO.
The mind thinks, the heart knows...
  • #9,973
  • Apr 26, 2012 12:06pm Apr 26, 2012 12:06pm
Quoting Markillo
I ve been following this trend like a month ago, and i ve been doing OK.

right now im kind off concerned but at the same time waiting for the trigger that will drop the EUR as Al said.

right now i have an open position SHORT, i opened at 1.3170 and today i got panic and i was going to close the position and assume a loss, but looking at my daily chart I saw that the EUR found a Resistance with the 200 EMA and I think it is kind of inside the Channel!
also RSI looks good in days and i think I will wait for the trix change off color for confirmation.....
Just my humble opinion, but you may need to think about what the big money might be doing and not react to price action without that orientation. Read my next post. It may help to give you a different view. (Or not!)
The mind thinks, the heart knows...
  • #9,974
  • Apr 26, 2012 12:27pm Apr 26, 2012 12:27pm
I think you can get by nicely without a world view as a scalper or day trader, but when you swing and position trade a world view is a must. I like position trading (I've been in a core audnzd short since Dec 20, 2011) and really want to build a nice USD long position against CAD and AUD. I still use my world view bias to weight trades in shorter term positions as well.

But, in the end, we all find our own way.

Lee
"The more I practice the luckier I get." Gary Player
  • #9,975
  • Apr 26, 2012 12:30pm Apr 26, 2012 12:30pm
Quoting laciera
I have been using the extreme tma system on EUR/USD..
Seeing some great moves, mostly 1 or 2 very good moves daily..

I Wanted to ask other traders,
what other currency pairs do you see good moves on M15 tf. ?

Any personal experiences /suggestions?
Using this system I'm currently short audnzd, long usdjpy and usdcad and have it up on a dozen pairs..., it seems to work for all the majors and commodity currencies as far as I can tell. BUT many here have much more practice with it than I do.

Lee
"The more I practice the luckier I get." Gary Player
  • #9,976
  • Apr 26, 2012 1:04pm Apr 26, 2012 1:04pm
Al, what do you think of shorting gold? Seems to have hit resistance at 1660 and a good number of MTF indicators are flashing sell on the dashboard. Thanks.
  • #9,977
  • Apr 26, 2012 1:14pm Apr 26, 2012 1:14pm
Quoting Grins
usdjpy, an interesting convergence between S1 and H4 TMA

Just my take..., this market is driven by sentiment at the moment, it's been very good at ignoring fundamentals most of this year. There was a great deal of money sidelined last year, money managers had to put that money back to work so a bunch of idle cash has been put into the risk market. In addition to that Operation Twist is ongoing as the Fed rolls over short term maturing bonds into longer term bonds to keep long term costs to borrowers low. The euro is strong due in part to support...
It will be slow until the next Euroscare. It could be one of many. For sure we know of one a week from Sunday. The Socialist candidate Hollande will win the French Election. It will be an interesting month of May...
Observation is the path to discovery.
  • #9,978
  • Apr 26, 2012 1:19pm Apr 26, 2012 1:19pm
Quoting laciera
I have been using the extreme tma system on EUR/USD..
Seeing some great moves, mostly 1 or 2 very good moves daily..

I Wanted to ask other traders,
what other currency pairs do you see good moves on M15 tf. ?

Any personal experiences /suggestions?
Iīve had great results with AudUsd. Especially leaving it open at night with a target price at the opposite band. It is usually filled in the morning.

Pretty good results with "The Beast" GbpJpy.

Bad results with UsdCad and UsdChf. For some reason I canīt get those two right. I usually end up in recovery with them.
Observation is the path to discovery.
  • #9,979
  • Apr 26, 2012 1:20pm Apr 26, 2012 1:20pm
I took a look at the gold H4 chart in regards to what Mr. Domino said above. I can see potential for some 200 pip taking here, besides this can be coupled with a USD up-trend since when gold goes up usd goes up aswell. Al, ur opinion is much appreciated, correct me if im wrong.

Vide below.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gold h4.jpg Size: 335 KB
  • #9,980
  • Apr 26, 2012 1:21pm Apr 26, 2012 1:21pm
Quoting Alorente
It will be slow until the next Euroscare.
'Euroscare', Hah, hah, ha..., I'm going to remember that one.

I'm trying to avoid eurusd lately, a rumor sends it 100 pips one way, the denial right back again..., far too much emotion in that pair for me..., if I want a roller coaster ride I'll go to the amusement park. Seems to me there are better pairs to play the eur off of, gbp for one.

Lee
"The more I practice the luckier I get." Gary Player
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