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Extreme TMA System

  • #9,921
  • Apr 25, 2012 12:22pm Apr 25, 2012 12:22pm
Please can anyone advise as to the white lines around the price on this chart? I am not sure what it is? Keltner? thanks in adv! http://www.hostmypic.net/pictures/a5...6ee33b1619.jpg
Tracking the Specialists.
  • #9,922
  • Apr 25, 2012 1:23pm Apr 25, 2012 1:23pm
Seems like nothing is bringing down EU and GU Breaks November high
  • #9,923
  • Apr 25, 2012 1:29pm Apr 25, 2012 1:29pm
Some major spike action going on!

Quoting odellcash
Seems like nothing is bringing down EU and GU Breaks November high
Tracking the Specialists.
  • #9,924
  • Apr 25, 2012 1:43pm Apr 25, 2012 1:43pm
Quoting odellcash
Seems like nothing is bringing down EU and GU Breaks November high
Seems that the more we speak about Euro and Gbp weakness the more they go up....
  • #9,925
  • Apr 25, 2012 1:52pm Apr 25, 2012 1:52pm
Don't trade according to your Bias and emotion, trade what the market give you NOW!!
Follow me to the Promised Land
  • #9,926
  • Apr 25, 2012 2:05pm Apr 25, 2012 2:05pm
Quoting xlitang
Don't trade according to your Bias and emotion, trade what the market give you NOW!!
true true. Just interesting how we were talking about the drop last night in GU and how they're ready to fall, and its made up all of that plus.
  • #9,927
  • Apr 25, 2012 2:07pm Apr 25, 2012 2:07pm
I think Bernanke just laid the way for a weaker dollar- he has made comments that leave it open to people to infer that QE3 is round the corner. This bodes very bad for the dollar. I think dollar would be very weak coming few days now.

Quoting Alorente
1- Bernanke wants Obama to be reelected. Romney has already stated that he will not reappoint Bernanke for another term.

2- The US driving season is a month away. Everyone that knows the US well, understands how important Gas prices are during this season, which this year runs up right to the election.

3- The fastest way to get Oil price down 10% and have it reflected at the pump is to get the dollar higher quickly.

4- The correct words from Bernanke this evening can accomplish that in a hurry.

5- A higher dollar at this moment will be received...
Its all in the mind.
  • #9,928
  • Apr 25, 2012 2:10pm Apr 25, 2012 2:10pm
daily chart of dollar index must close above 79.30 for to up trend to be continued .
  • #9,929
  • Apr 25, 2012 2:17pm Apr 25, 2012 2:17pm
Quoting 5abi
I think Bernanke just laid the way for a weaker dollar- he has made comments that leave it open to people to infer that QE3 is round the corner. This bodes very bad for the dollar. I think dollar would be very weak coming few days now.
No he didn't, he said they would use it IF necessary if the economy doesn't meet their projections, which he has been saying all along. He also showed that 2013, 2014 are the most likely times for them to implement QE. This spike up was caused by all the questions about QE that was asked to Bernanke, he had to answer them with the answer of them implementing it if necessary. This spike up was caused partly by this and also partly to get stops out, get a higher price to sell against USD.
  • #9,930
  • Apr 25, 2012 2:38pm Apr 25, 2012 2:38pm
Quoting xlitang
Don't trade according to your Bias and emotion, trade what the market give you NOW!!
yes... you are absolutely right sometimes I forget it....
  • #9,931
  • Apr 25, 2012 3:30pm Apr 25, 2012 3:30pm
Quoting Surfnomad
Hey congrats man on a solid M5 trade. As evidenced by the PA afterward that was an excellent exit.

Robert
thanks Robert,

Green pips to us friend
  • #9,932
  • Apr 25, 2012 10:46pm Apr 25, 2012 10:46pm
http://www.hostmypic.net/pictures/42...3f6c6399cc.jpg
Tracking the Specialists.
  • #9,933
  • Apr 26, 2012 2:52am Apr 26, 2012 2:52am
Today´s move has taken USD, EUR and GBP to the extremes permissible without considering failure. The top chart is the daily UsdIndex which is right on the bottom trendline. A close below it will start a bearish scenario for USD.

The bottom chart is EurUsd H4 trying to break the upper channel wall. A close beyond the wall changes this picture also.

Of course, as we know, Forex always takes things to the extreme before showing it´s real cards, so this may still be a final shakeout. We´ll have to wait for the end of today to see. This does feel more to me like a slow push on the end of a move more than a new, fresh breakout. Gbp, Usd and all its pairs are overextended beyond the M15, H1 and H4 channels, so if we believe in Extreme TMA, this should be where all of them turn around. A few more hours will tell the story.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: usdindex.jpg Size: 213 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: eurusd.jpg Size: 123 KB
Observation is the path to discovery.
  • #9,934
  • Apr 26, 2012 3:19am Apr 26, 2012 3:19am
where all of them turn around

Quoting Alorente
Today´s move has taken USD, EUR and GBP to the extremes permissible without considering failure. The top chart is the daily UsdIndex which is right on the bottom trendline. A close below it will start a bearish scenario for USD.

The bottom chart is EurUsd H4 trying to break the upper channel wall. A close beyond the wall changes this picture also.

Of course, as we know, Forex always takes things to the extreme before showing it´s real cards, so this may still be a final shakeout. We´ll have to wait for the end of today to see. This does feel...
Tracking the Specialists.
  • #9,935
  • Apr 26, 2012 3:37am Apr 26, 2012 3:37am
Just shorted EU, AU and GU...

Let's see what the market has for us today!
Attached Image
  • #9,936
  • Apr 26, 2012 3:40am Apr 26, 2012 3:40am
I wouldn't be surprised to see EU at 1.33'ish
  • #9,937
  • Edited 4:17am Apr 26, 2012 3:40am | Edited 4:17am
[quote=Alorente;5610662]Today´s move has taken USD, EUR and GBP to the extremes permissible without considering failure. The top chart is the daily UsdIndex which is right on the bottom trendline. A close below it will start a bearish scenario for USD.

100% agree, let's wait and see, by all means we are @ a critical crossroad in practicably most of the major pair, from my experience the big falls are almost always preceded by extreme price spike ( its like stop hunting by floor traders during low liquidity hours ), just notice @ AL's EU chart the very clear descending triangle forming on the daily chart, Price have to touch the upper trend line and don't close above it for the pattern to be valid.

A clear example is the break of the EU the 1.60 level before falling to 1.23 level, i know from personal experience because i bought the break and was stopped out on the way down, i remember that all the analysts was shouting on all the financial hubs that the EU is breaking resistance and the next target is the 2 level, soon we found ourselves stuck with the euro debt crisis that still lingers til today.

Like always let's wait and see.PATIENCE AND DISCIPLINE.
Master Your Setup, Master Your self. (NQoos)
  • #9,938
  • Apr 26, 2012 3:46am Apr 26, 2012 3:46am
It still amazes me how market react for bernanke speech and still going up. He said nothing new and only repeated the same thing. Above all forecast are better than were. Today we have behind us one bad result for Uk and market is still going up. I don't know for what investors are waiting but I think that we will have a big fall sonner or later.
  • #9,939
  • Apr 26, 2012 4:04am Apr 26, 2012 4:04am
Quoting penet
It still amazes me how market react for bernanke speech and still going up. He said nothing new and only repeated the same thing. Above all forecast are better than were. Today we have behind us one bad result for Uk and market is still going up. I don't know for what investors are waiting but I think that we will have a big fall sonner or later.
It´s coming. The extreme always looks unreasonable because it is caused by the last group being stopped out or finally throwing in the towel, just to see the market turn around after. That is why it is so important to bet small and always leave yourself margin room for the unexpected and unreasonable extremes.

This may in fact be a breakout, but I don´t believe it. I have the maneuverability to let the market show me that it is in fact a breakout.
Observation is the path to discovery.
  • #9,940
  • Apr 26, 2012 4:24am Apr 26, 2012 4:24am
Quoting Alorente
It´s coming. The extreme always looks unreasonable because it is caused by the last group being stopped out or finally throwing in the towel, just to see the market turn around after. That is why it is so important to bet small and always leave yourself margin room for the unexpected and unreasonable extremes.

This may in fact be a breakout, but I don´t believe it. I have the maneuverability to let the market show me that it is in fact a breakout.
I can't agree more with you Al ! All the facts scream sell sell sell (eur/usd, gbp/usd) but investors go buy buy buy But this will be short-lived I think. Behind us we have another bad data for Europe and market is stil almost unchanged. I think the trigger will be Jobless claims if it will be below forecast. I can't believe that investors are so desperate that they will in long term buy euros only because Bernanke said he have tools on table
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