Dislikedin my opinion not all type of confluence are unreliable. your statements might be true if we consider the confluence of lagging technical indicators, but confluence of price action, supply and demand and maybe divergence is a whole different story.
moving averages, fibs and stuffs like that are just tools to CONFIRM my trades. in fact watching supply/demand zones and look for price action confirmation might be all youll ever need to trade the markets with succsess.
i know im stressing it like hell, but PPZ (supply and demand or S/R... they are...Ignored
I totally Agree with R3ta here.
All indicators, from the simplest to the more complicated ones, were initially developed for equities. Forex has a huge liquidity, trader base and volume as compared to equities and by the time an indicators tells you something and you interpret it, the dynamics of price completely change and what the indicator had indicated becomes suspect.
Now im a beginner for the most part myself, and I still fall into my own traps like over trading and trading into traffic, falling for a bear/bull trap etc. What made me go live a few months ago though was the fact that i was keeping MM very tight and following J16 rules of risk per trade etc. I have always been netting positive. As far as im concerned indicators are pretty useless for forex and in the last year and a half or so that i have built up screen time ive noticed that in forex patterns reoccur time and time again. The key is to understand the signals PA produces to know what is "likely" to happen. Indicators of course then can be used for confirmation.
I feel that the reason why most individuals do not make it in this business is because they are reading the wrong things. Some are reading the indicators and some are following with whereever the heard is going. For scalpers, like me and i think most people on this thread, we can never know what the big boys in front know, but we can only use their trades as the best indicator of what might be the big picture. They are not using indicators, in fact they are taking advantage of the heavy liquidity in forex to produce fake signals to retail trader so that they can get a good price for their trade.
Understanding what the big boys are doing by looking at the charts and hence what they are doing with their order is PA in my opinion and mastering that is sufficient for success.
Hope that made some sense.