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Where can I learn more about Price Action like those in James16 charts? 9 replies

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james16 Chart Thread

  • #110,701
  • Apr 24, 2012 11:44pm Apr 24, 2012 11:44pm
Quoting Quezoy
Was looking at that, but this 0.85 trouble area is strong. (green rectangle)
Besides its in a range for a few days and at the moment just in the middle of it - traffic. (blue rectangle)
hi, was wondering if you can share the file for the round number lines on your MT4? thanks.
  • #110,702
  • Apr 25, 2012 1:54am Apr 25, 2012 1:54am
Quoting fascist
hi, was wondering if you can share the file for the round number lines on your MT4? thanks.
You'll find it here:
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...57#post5442457
Thoughts are things
  • #110,703
  • Apr 25, 2012 4:21am Apr 25, 2012 4:21am
Quoting Quezoy
You'll find it here:
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...57#post5442457
thanks dude.
  • #110,704
  • Apr 25, 2012 6:44am Apr 25, 2012 6:44am
Hi people, as I've noticed a lot of people say on FF "I've been lurking in the background of this thread" and have been studing my charts on a daily and weekly basis and something struck me like the proverbial. I've been "struggling" trying to trade forex, having gone through the usual "get rich" schemes and then adding quite a few indicators to the charts which would help me make the right trades etc . Still you've probably heard that a few times I'd expect.

Anyway what struck me was the fact that I've been studying technical analysis for over 20 years but for some reason decided that I should forget the fundamentals of TA and rely on indicators etc. to trade forex. Or spent thousands of dollars on EA's . Reading this thread however has been shall we say an eye opener and I thank James for this forum and his website with it's many free webinars and video's to bring me back to my senses.

Cheers guy's and gals for this great thread and keep it going, I'm still learning every day... even after 20 years..

Chuck
  • #110,705
  • Apr 25, 2012 7:03am Apr 25, 2012 7:03am
Quoting Chuckyisback
Hi people, as I've noticed a lot of people say on FF "I've been lurking in the background of this thread" and have been studing my charts on a daily and weekly basis and something struck me like the proverbial. I've been "struggling" trying to trade forex, having gone through the usual "get rich" schemes and then adding quite a few indicators to the charts which would help me make the right trades etc . Still you've probably heard that a few times I'd expect.

Anyway what struck me was the fact that I've been studying technical analysis...

Are you saying that you have never come across or used Price Action or S/R in your experience of 20 yrs?

I really like to know more from the more experienced people....What has been their method for success. What has worked and what has not..

Every trader wants certainity in trading because it give them confidence but Forex trading or any trading has lot of uncertainity , and i was wondering how do i handle this uncertainity and then it hit me..we/I have been dealing with uncertainilty all our lives...we don't know what is going to happen tomorrow in our life ...we only act today based on all the info/facts we have today and it's the same in trading..

However , I m still struggling to find my comfort zone in trading ..as is everyone..
  • #110,706
  • Apr 25, 2012 7:06am Apr 25, 2012 7:06am
Quoting Chuckyisback
Hi people, as I've noticed a lot of people say on FF "I've been lurking in the background of this thread" and have been studing my charts on a daily and weekly basis and something struck me like the proverbial. I've been "struggling" trying to trade forex, having gone through the usual "get rich" schemes and then adding quite a few indicators to the charts which would help me make the right trades etc . Still you've probably heard that a few times I'd expect.

Anyway what struck me was the fact that I've been studying technical analysis...
of course 20 years...big blablabla .....

either you make it in this business and earn tons of cash after a couple of years or you end up losing and killing one account after the other and finally stop trading and keep to your daily job...

imho theres no in between..

regards,
Jonas
Hero calls followed by margin calls...
  • #110,707
  • Apr 25, 2012 7:31am Apr 25, 2012 7:31am
Quoting zamfir
Are you saying that you have never come across or used Price Action or S/R in your experience of 20 yrs?

I really like to know more from the more experienced people....What has been their method for success. What has worked and what has not..

Every trader wants certainity in trading because it give them confidence but Forex trading or any trading has lot of uncertainity , and i was wondering how do i handle this uncertainity and then it hit me..we/I have been dealing with uncertainilty all our lives...we don't know what is going to happen tomorrow...
of course 20 years...big blablabla .....

either you make it in this business and earn tons of cash after a couple of years or you end up losing and killing one account after the other and finally stop trading and keep to your daily job...

imho theres no in between..

Yeah well it takes all sorts I suppose... blah blah..

Anyway what i was tryin g to say was that its's good to have come across this thread and I'll try and contibute if when I can

Cheers
  • #110,708
  • Apr 25, 2012 7:45am Apr 25, 2012 7:45am
Quoting Chuckyisback
Hi people, as I've noticed a lot of people say on FF "I've been lurking in the background of this thread" and have been studing my charts on a daily and weekly basis and something struck me like the proverbial. I've been "struggling" trying to trade forex, having gone through the usual "get rich" schemes and then adding quite a few indicators to the charts which would help me make the right trades etc . Still you've probably heard that a few times I'd expect.

Anyway what struck me was the fact that I've been studying technical analysis...
I totally agree with Phanti , 20 Years , Big blablabla
Human
  • #110,709
  • Apr 25, 2012 8:08am Apr 25, 2012 8:08am
Anyone trading cable? 4H BEOB + hourly pin bar.
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  • #110,710
  • Apr 25, 2012 8:15am Apr 25, 2012 8:15am
Quoting mbqb11
Hey P

That's interesting stuff, I tend to look at the overall situation to decide the type of reversal(of course defining what one calls a reversal vs a large retracement etc is another story) that may occur. To me it's all about the confluence story and location PLUS that divergence that may signify a larger reversal verse a short term pullback(like in a strong trending market divergence is a lot less sustainable until the market has a significant enough reason to reverse). I don't even use MACD/RSI etc anymore as you can see this on the chart,...
Mike,
I am interested in this statement from your above comment, "To me it's all about the confluence story and location PLUS that divergence that may signify a larger reversal verse a short term pullback(like in a strong trending market divergence is a lot less sustainable until the market has a significant enough reason to reverse)."

In particular the idea of confluence which I understand is two things (or more) confirming the circumstances of a trade i.e. maybe a pin bar at fib level. First, is that correct?

Second, John Jagerson, from Learning Markets discusses how using multiple indicators to confirm each other in fact reduces the chances of success of a trade. In other words if you could determine a pin bar would be right 55% of the time, and the fib that confirms it was right 30% of the time you might think you would have an 85% chance of being right. However, your chances would only be 55% as these confirmation between indicators are non-related. Here is his quote, “. . . because multiple indicators cannot affect each other, merely adding more of them to a chart will not increase the probability of being right. In fact, from a statistical perspective, the probability of a successful outcome will always be equal to the most accurate indicator.” So in my example, the pin bar would win out over the fib or a divergence, etc.

So hold on, I'm getting to something here. Third, afterr your techincial analyis regarding the divergence, confluence, and pullback which seem to be based on experience of trading (chess masters begin to see the board differently then normal chess players after 1000s of hours), you say, "until the market has a significant enough reason to reverse."

Here is my question, Isn't all of the technical analysis just a road map of what has happened and what really matters is what you say when you indicate that the market has to have a reason to reverse?

So in my estimation if you consider what trading really is, the correct interpretation of the market moving, I call it momentum, Mandelbrot calls it the Memory of something that has happened like tremors from an earthquake, are we really trying to predict that "reason to reverse"? And how much of it really depends on anything that came before. Whew?!
  • #110,711
  • Apr 25, 2012 8:21am Apr 25, 2012 8:21am
Quoting Chuckyisback
of course 20 years...big blablabla .....

either you make it in this business and earn tons of cash after a couple of years or you end up losing and killing one account after the other and finally stop trading and keep to your daily job...

imho theres no in between..

Yeah well it takes all sorts I suppose... blah blah..

Anyway what i was tryin g to say was that its's good to have come across this thread and I'll try and contibute if when I can

Cheers
Your welcome (or lack of) seems a bit harsh to me if i'm honest. Could you perhaps expand on what you've been up to this last 20 years if you felt the need to ditch TA and go into indi's/EA's?

either way, you've found the right place to help you. Lots of nice folk here.
  • #110,712
  • Apr 25, 2012 8:21am Apr 25, 2012 8:21am
Quoting trader_dscha
Anyone trading cable? 4H BEOB + hourly pin bar.
I was in, (aggresive entry) and just as my SL got hit price moved sharply in my direction.
Im however still in GBP/CHF and took allready some profit.
Thoughts are things
  • #110,713
  • Apr 25, 2012 8:32am Apr 25, 2012 8:32am
Quoting trader_dscha
Anyone trading cable? 4H BEOB + hourly pin bar.
my thoughts:
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  • #110,714
  • Apr 25, 2012 8:33am Apr 25, 2012 8:33am
Quoting trader_dscha
Anyone trading cable? 4H BEOB + hourly pin bar.
Hey man , it was really something interesting but this brake wow ... too good is not good
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  • #110,715
  • Apr 25, 2012 8:39am Apr 25, 2012 8:39am
Quoting pdean123
Mike,
I am interested in this statement from your above comment, "To me it's all about the confluence story and location PLUS that divergence that may signify a larger reversal verse a short term pullback(like in a strong trending market divergence is a lot less sustainable until the market has a significant enough reason to reverse)."

In particular the idea of confluence which I understand is two things (or more) confirming the circumstances of a trade i.e. maybe a pin bar at fib level. First, is that correct?

Second, John Jagerson,...
Hey Paul

I think like anything you can over think a thousand reasons HYPOTHETICALLY why stuff shouldn't work. The reality is really quite simple though. It's about learning concepts and how to string those concepts together in a workable manner. A pinbar is just a bar without understanding more about it. I could talk about pinbars and have all day long. That is simply one small thing. Then I could talk about PPZs all day long, and so on and so forth. Then it is about understanding the strengths and weaknesses of each of those concepts both on their own and then the strengths and weaknesses of each of those concepts together and then finally the most important when those things come together and a trade now makes sense(the story). So I disagree with the above statement about it reducing our odds, in fact for me it increases my odds. But we can't make a blanketed statement like If we have a pinbar and a fib our Odds = XYZ. The reality is it depends so much on the situation, and everything together to determine if a trade is worth taking for me. This is part of what i think actually gets people into trouble or prevents success is that we want to fit everything into a neat little box when the greatest asset I have as a trader is my deep understanding of the tools I use and how to best use those tools depending on a situation. Sometimes you can have all the confluence in the world but one small little thing is out of place and I won't take a trade. Sometimes I can have nothing but one really strong tool and I will take a trade. Flexibility to the situation is why I can do well. Experience plays a huge role as you said and this is how we learn how to best utilize the tools we choose to use(be it the tools we teach at j16 or how someone else teaches).

Hope this helps and of course this is my opinion and beliefs which is what we all trade at day end
Mike
  • #110,716
  • Apr 25, 2012 8:41am Apr 25, 2012 8:41am
I was watching cable too but i didnt find any entry.

however it is forming a nice buob on the daily, it might pull back to 1.6000.

any ideas?
  • #110,717
  • Apr 25, 2012 8:47am Apr 25, 2012 8:47am
Quoting mbqb11
Hey Paul

"... the greatest asset I have as a trader is my deep understanding of the tools I use and how to best use those tools depending on a situation. Sometimes you can have all the confluence in the world but one small little thing is out of place and I won't take a trade. Sometimes I can have nothing but one really strong tool and I will take a trade. Flexibility to the situation is why I can do well. Experience plays a huge role as you said and this is how we learn how to best utilize the tools we choose to use(be it the tools we teach...
Mike,
I don't think we disagree at all in fact, the portion of your quote I edited above is exactly what I was getting at. BTW, have you read, Thinking: Fast and Slow by Daniel Kahneman? You might be interested in what he has to say.
Paul
  • #110,718
  • Apr 25, 2012 8:48am Apr 25, 2012 8:48am
Quoting R3ta
I was watching cable too but i didnt find any entry.

however it is forming a nice buob on the daily, it might pull back to 1.6000.

any ideas?
Good day all,

EC has approached PPZ/ heavy demand area. PA around here could be useful for 50 odd pips either way i think. Thoughts?

GBPUSD will probably have a more defined direction after fomc reports today. Its a heavy fundamental day and PA could be misleading I feel on such days. Bad UK and US data could keep it range bound for the meantime i fear.

Best,
-H
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  • #110,719
  • Apr 25, 2012 8:54am Apr 25, 2012 8:54am
Quoting pdean123
Mike,
I don't think we disagree at all in fact, the portion of your quote I edited above is exactly what I was getting at. BTW, have you read, Thinking: Fast and Slow by Daniel Kahneman? You might be interested in what he has to say.
Paul
Hey Paul

Sorry what I meant is I disagreed with the statement about coming up with a % odds on a trade. Not the idea of what you were getting at sorry.

I have not I will have to write the title down and check it out though

Mike
  • #110,720
  • Apr 25, 2012 9:14am Apr 25, 2012 9:14am
Quoting pdean123
Mike,
I am interested in this statement from your above comment, "To me it's all about the confluence story and location PLUS that divergence that may signify a larger reversal verse a short term pullback(like in a strong trending market divergence is a lot less sustainable until the market has a significant enough reason to reverse)."

In particular the idea of confluence which I understand is two things (or more) confirming the circumstances of a trade i.e. maybe a pin bar at fib level. First, is that correct?

Second, John Jagerson,...
in my opinion not all type of confluence are unreliable. your statements might be true if we consider the confluence of lagging technical indicators, but confluence of price action, supply and demand and maybe divergence is a whole different story.

moving averages, fibs and stuffs like that are just tools to CONFIRM my trades. in fact watching supply/demand zones and look for price action confirmation might be all youll ever need to trade the markets with succsess.

i know im stressing it like hell, but PPZ (supply and demand or S/R... they are all similar concepts) and price action (as confirmation) might be ALL you need to find great entry and exit levels.
trading can be dirty simple, but it is never easy to reach a point where you can see it truly simple. the hard part is about being patient and disciplined. most traders dont reach the necessary screentime to learn to predict price action in the right way. some traders lose theirselfs becoming too over-confident (overtrading, sometimes i still fall into it) or adopting a bad MM or because they try to catch every move on the screen.
so there's a million ways to lose your money and few ways to reach big profits, because a big part of the game is about psychology and discipline.

to me trading is a VISUAL game, based on the aggregate psychology of market partecipants. nothing more and nothing less. the more you understand HOW and WHY price behave like this or that on your chart, and the more you will become profitable. some traders spend years to develop such knowledge and experience. some others will never reach that point.
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