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Extreme TMA System

  • #9,881
  • Apr 25, 2012 3:57am Apr 25, 2012 3:57am
Quoting migmac
Alfredo,

I have short the gbpusd just when it touch on the H4 tma purple line, them after a few minutes the rsi did a big cross down. I have draw 2 trendlines at the rsi, do you think an exist strategy can be to wait the rsi to cross the trendline up?

And, the same might happend at eurusd at any minute right? with additional that we have a tripple top

thank you
Yes. That would be a good exit. Yes, EurUsd will follow soon. Possibly after FOMC today. WeŽll see what Bernanke says, or better still, what he wonŽt say (QE3).
Observation is the path to discovery.
  • #9,882
  • Apr 25, 2012 3:59am Apr 25, 2012 3:59am
Quoting Connected
too earlier to SHORT GU last week, for members who done SHORT Position.

Let's see ~

SCOTT
  • #9,883
  • Apr 25, 2012 4:01am Apr 25, 2012 4:01am
USDCAD enter to great position at H1 TMA~

SCOTT-ibm
  • #9,884
  • Apr 25, 2012 4:03am Apr 25, 2012 4:03am
Quoting Connected
Al what do you think please, it seems as if Cable isnt highly correlated with EU at present? / their is a power struggle between the two? ie. Cable takes hold then EU follows and vice versa throughout the day...
In the end, they will fall in line. Keep in mind they are both referenced against Usd. It is Usd that will rocket higher, so both have to fall as will Jpy.
Observation is the path to discovery.
  • #9,885
  • Apr 25, 2012 4:03am Apr 25, 2012 4:03am
http://www.forexfactory.com/news.php?do=news&id=356378
Tracking the Specialists.
  • #9,886
  • Apr 25, 2012 4:05am Apr 25, 2012 4:05am
Quoting Alorente
Look at the symmetry of GU over the past 2 years. I expect this symmetrical price action to continue till 1.4200.
The 1.5270 is a crucial support for the whole drop to 1.4200 if it breaks.... And i think that GU will find some support @ 1.5400 for it is the support of the weekly up trend line.
Master Your Setup, Master Your self. (NQoos)
  • #9,887
  • Apr 25, 2012 4:05am Apr 25, 2012 4:05am
Thanks Al for your perspective on EU GU, lots of opportunity
Quoting Alorente
In the end, they will fall in line. Keep in mind they are both referenced against Usd. It is Usd that will rocket higher, so both have to fall as will Jpy.
Tracking the Specialists.
  • #9,888
  • Edited 4:18am Apr 25, 2012 4:07am | Edited 4:18am
Quoting bassramy
1.59900 Will be my first short term target let's wait and see.
Look at it
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbp levels.jpg Size: 124 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: gbp index.jpg Size: 122 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: usd index.jpg Size: 132 KB
  • #9,889
  • Apr 25, 2012 4:11am Apr 25, 2012 4:11am
I believe we are about to live through a memorable change in Forex trends. I believe the Bear market of Usd is now over. We will embark on a steady and strong climb of Usd that will last at least 2 years. This move will be memorable and it will carry the Euro to parity and Jpy to 120. Gbp is a little more difficult to pinpoint, but it should end up somewhere around 1.30 to 1.40.

Of course, my tactical trading decisions will keep this strategic view in mind throughout this time period. I will not countertrend any of these pairs, as well as UsdCad and AudUsd.
Observation is the path to discovery.
  • #9,890
  • Apr 25, 2012 4:16am Apr 25, 2012 4:16am
Quoting Alorente
Look at the symmetry of GU over the past 2 years. I expect this symmetrical price action to continue till 1.4200.
Nice... it looks like modern art...
At the H4 bottom band my recovery will be at BE.....
  • #9,891
  • Apr 25, 2012 4:20am Apr 25, 2012 4:20am
Quoting Alorente
Interesting, Mike. IŽll keep an eye on this method.
Gentlemen always play by the rules. If they can't, they change the rules.
  • #9,892
  • Apr 25, 2012 4:34am Apr 25, 2012 4:34am
Here is UsdIndex Daily chart. As you can see, we are at a crossroads. Which trendline will be broken? The Green one is the rise since last August. The Red one the consolidation of the advance. I believe the Red one will fall very soon and Usd will rocket from there.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: usdindex.jpg Size: 212 KB
Observation is the path to discovery.
  • #9,893
  • Apr 25, 2012 4:39am Apr 25, 2012 4:39am
Al, how do you think euro/bgp will fare? I don't trade it, but I have bills to pay in Spain, so I watch it constantly.
  • #9,894
  • Apr 25, 2012 4:56am Apr 25, 2012 4:56am
Quoting Jikkie
Al, how do you think euro/bgp will fare? I don't trade it, but I have bills to pay in Spain, so I watch it constantly.
Here is the Weekly EurGbp chart. I believe EG will continue down the light blue channel till it reaches the 0.66 historical level that has been the norm for this pair for 15 years.

It makes absolutely no sense that the Euro is this high relative to Sterling. When things make no sense, in the long run they revert to reason.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurgbp.jpg Size: 123 KB
Observation is the path to discovery.
  • #9,895
  • Apr 25, 2012 5:04am Apr 25, 2012 5:04am
Quoting Alorente
Here is the Weekly EurGbp chart. I believe EG will continue down the light blue channel till it reaches the 0.66 historical level that has been the norm for this pair for 15 years.

It makes absolutely no sense that the Euro is this high relative to Sterling. When things make no sense, in the long run they revert to reason.
So when you look at the above chart or what has happened to Euro as compared to Usd in the past 5 years, you have to scratch your head and ask "What caused this absurd dislocation?"

I believe the answer lies in China. About 5 years ago, the Chinese decided to stop accumulating US Dollars and begin deversifiing their ever growing foreigh reserves. What happened to the Yen and the Euro is a reflection of Chinese money accumulating the two currencies. I believe they are now reverting their stance and coming back to King Dollar.
Observation is the path to discovery.
  • #9,896
  • Apr 25, 2012 5:20am Apr 25, 2012 5:20am
Quoting Alorente
When Slope is Ranging, you can trade both ways. M15 Slope is ranging.
Thank you, sir.
"The more I practice the luckier I get." Gary Player
  • #9,897
  • Apr 25, 2012 5:28am Apr 25, 2012 5:28am
It's funny how eur/usd going up against all the odds. I treat it like a good opportunities for another short positions !
  • #9,898
  • Apr 25, 2012 5:37am Apr 25, 2012 5:37am
Quoting harry45
Alf is adaptive Laguerre filter.This mod of indi has additional MA line(you should choose period MA) .When it crosses alf line up (blue point appears) and if PA is above alf you should be ready to go long.Try several TF(if alf TF M5 is above alf M15 and above alf H1 and
alf M15 is above alf H1- this is a very powerful setup to go long).
In combination with TMA MTF you ll be a real winner.As to semafor I use it analizing waves on H1,H4,D1( with big periods of ZZ) and determin main direction of trade on a couple of days ahead.
TMA MTF doing...
Thanks for the interesting indi. Does this also repaint ?
  • #9,899
  • Apr 25, 2012 5:41am Apr 25, 2012 5:41am
Quoting Alorente
I believe we are about to live through a memorable change in Forex trends. I believe the Bear market of Usd is now over. We will embark on a steady and strong climb of Usd that will last at least 2 years. This move will be memorable and it will carry the Euro to parity and Jpy to 120. Gbp is a little more difficult to pinpoint, but it should end up somewhere around 1.30 to 1.40.

Of course, my tactical trading decisions will keep this strategic view in mind throughout this time period. I will not countertrend any of these pairs, as well as UsdCad...
Just one question Al, right now many of us are pro-usd, thus avoiding longs on e/u, g/u and shorts on u/j. We re in a strong trending market. When will you start longng/shorting e/u equally, when will we be ina ranging market once more?
  • #9,900
  • Apr 25, 2012 5:51am Apr 25, 2012 5:51am
Thank you very much Al. I do hope you are right!

I agree about the USD, short/medium term. The problem is the state of their deficit....

and if USD shoots up, presumably that will bring gold down.....correlation recently has been that way....

but then what? I hate to think what global storm is brewing.
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