Good morning to all
Start this discussion to describe my work took me to build a system that is proving far profitable. (hoping my English is understandable)
The path was not short and try to describe its evolution so that those who want to give me advice or suggestions.
I'm using some commercial EA with profit, I appreciate the technical analysis, but I have tried to develop my own trading system only on statistical concepts and therefore do not use forecasting tools such as indicators that rely only on past data.
The first is called Trading System developed HCB Classic 3.
In this post I describe this TS and if some one is interested, in following posts its evolution with a proposal for collaboration.
The Trading System HCB Classic 3 is based on a technical breakout of the daily range that has developed till 1:.00 (GMT +1) on EURUSD.
At 10:00 (GMT +1) place six pending orders 3 sell stop and 3 buy stop just 2 pips below the respective minimum and 2 pips above the maximum value achieved during the day or from 0:00 to 10:00 (GMT + more 1);
Very often it happens that at 10 the market has to form the maximum / minimum of the day, in this case involved a discretionary factor or the expectation of a retracement of some pip, at least 5-6, in order to avoid entering market on a false signal, this can also mean losing the ability to trade in that direction if the market is "exploding" because beyond 10:05 the pending no longer have to be inserted.
Orders are pending shall expire at 18:05.
Buy end sell pending orders are not OCO and they are kept until expiry time of 18:05, this means that the same day can go to market both the pending buy and sell.
Orders are 3 for each direction with the same SL and 3 different TP defined T1, T2 and T3.
SL = 50 pips
T1 = 50 pips
T2 = 110 pips
T3 = 160 pips
When to orders became market orders, after the first pip gain, is handled a TS (Trailing Stop) of 50 pips.
At 40 pips gain, the stop loss will be "forced" to BE (Break Even) and then continue with the same TS 50 pips, this means that when the market has covered 40 pips in our favor, the three orders are protected to break even.
If the trade goes in the positive following three targets T1, T2 and T3 always managed with TS = 50
Orders must be inserted all the 5 days of the week tradable; in the case in which at 10 there are still open orders from the previous day, the new ones will be inserted, only in case previous have at least reached the BE.
The TS does not implement variable parameters determined from an analysis of past data, but only on statistical data that results from the forward test,
this means that for now does not have a filter or any other parameter related volatility extracted from past data.
Statistical analysis is taking me in the direction of a revision of the values T2 and T3, that intuitively should not have a linear proportion as the current, but only the statistical analysis of a universe with more collected from the time the forward test determine.
Here are some comments on the aspects that I believe underlie the hope of profitability of the system:
• With three separate orders and different targets to achieve top 40 pips in favor, since then all 3 are risk-free trade.
• The trailing stop of 50 pips scarcely afford the closing net loss of 150 pips at most risk.
• In case of difficulty reaching the T1 will bring home only 50 pips of T1, but it is likely that the other two orders terminated by a tidy profit, the same speech to the achievement of T2, it will be aggregated to a minimum 50 +60 +110 = 220 pips. The achievement of T3 is 50 +110 +160 = 320 pips.
• A stop-loss "full" is 150 pips, then a T2 compensates a stop.
• The trailing stop determines the lowering of the volatility of the equity line, then cut some peaks of profit that would be reached with larger stop loss, but this is offset by the expectation of lower DD.
• The positioning of two groups of orders to the extremes of the range allows to intercept movements in the two directions of the market, the trading system remains "neutral" and open at the two options.
• The three possible targets to pursue large market movements.
I start in june 2011 to forward test this TS on a Demo account, up to now I reach more than 3800 pips.
With the actual version called HCB13 I reach more than 7800 pips from January 2012
good trade at all
Start this discussion to describe my work took me to build a system that is proving far profitable. (hoping my English is understandable)
The path was not short and try to describe its evolution so that those who want to give me advice or suggestions.
I'm using some commercial EA with profit, I appreciate the technical analysis, but I have tried to develop my own trading system only on statistical concepts and therefore do not use forecasting tools such as indicators that rely only on past data.
The first is called Trading System developed HCB Classic 3.
In this post I describe this TS and if some one is interested, in following posts its evolution with a proposal for collaboration.
The Trading System HCB Classic 3 is based on a technical breakout of the daily range that has developed till 1:.00 (GMT +1) on EURUSD.
At 10:00 (GMT +1) place six pending orders 3 sell stop and 3 buy stop just 2 pips below the respective minimum and 2 pips above the maximum value achieved during the day or from 0:00 to 10:00 (GMT + more 1);
Very often it happens that at 10 the market has to form the maximum / minimum of the day, in this case involved a discretionary factor or the expectation of a retracement of some pip, at least 5-6, in order to avoid entering market on a false signal, this can also mean losing the ability to trade in that direction if the market is "exploding" because beyond 10:05 the pending no longer have to be inserted.
Orders are pending shall expire at 18:05.
Buy end sell pending orders are not OCO and they are kept until expiry time of 18:05, this means that the same day can go to market both the pending buy and sell.
Orders are 3 for each direction with the same SL and 3 different TP defined T1, T2 and T3.
SL = 50 pips
T1 = 50 pips
T2 = 110 pips
T3 = 160 pips
When to orders became market orders, after the first pip gain, is handled a TS (Trailing Stop) of 50 pips.
At 40 pips gain, the stop loss will be "forced" to BE (Break Even) and then continue with the same TS 50 pips, this means that when the market has covered 40 pips in our favor, the three orders are protected to break even.
If the trade goes in the positive following three targets T1, T2 and T3 always managed with TS = 50
Orders must be inserted all the 5 days of the week tradable; in the case in which at 10 there are still open orders from the previous day, the new ones will be inserted, only in case previous have at least reached the BE.
The TS does not implement variable parameters determined from an analysis of past data, but only on statistical data that results from the forward test,
this means that for now does not have a filter or any other parameter related volatility extracted from past data.
Statistical analysis is taking me in the direction of a revision of the values T2 and T3, that intuitively should not have a linear proportion as the current, but only the statistical analysis of a universe with more collected from the time the forward test determine.
Here are some comments on the aspects that I believe underlie the hope of profitability of the system:
• With three separate orders and different targets to achieve top 40 pips in favor, since then all 3 are risk-free trade.
• The trailing stop of 50 pips scarcely afford the closing net loss of 150 pips at most risk.
• In case of difficulty reaching the T1 will bring home only 50 pips of T1, but it is likely that the other two orders terminated by a tidy profit, the same speech to the achievement of T2, it will be aggregated to a minimum 50 +60 +110 = 220 pips. The achievement of T3 is 50 +110 +160 = 320 pips.
• A stop-loss "full" is 150 pips, then a T2 compensates a stop.
• The trailing stop determines the lowering of the volatility of the equity line, then cut some peaks of profit that would be reached with larger stop loss, but this is offset by the expectation of lower DD.
• The positioning of two groups of orders to the extremes of the range allows to intercept movements in the two directions of the market, the trading system remains "neutral" and open at the two options.
• The three possible targets to pursue large market movements.
I start in june 2011 to forward test this TS on a Demo account, up to now I reach more than 3800 pips.
With the actual version called HCB13 I reach more than 7800 pips from January 2012
good trade at all
