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  • #21
  • Apr 26, 2006 8:25am Apr 26, 2006 8:25am
Quoting narafa
Aparsai,

I think everybody answered your questions in full details and they all said the same thing, so I am not going to repeat what they said...I just wanted to say that if you are doing what you like to do, for sure you will make money over the long haul....Just don't think too much about the money, think about your trading decisions and how you can make good trading calls and decisions and money will follow...


Thanks,

Nader
I quite agree with you. Thanks for the point.
  • #22
  • Apr 26, 2006 9:25am Apr 26, 2006 9:25am
when you have right trades , right choices , money will come !

but it take time to study , to thinks , ....
  • #23
  • Apr 26, 2006 9:51am Apr 26, 2006 9:51am
There'll be time enough for counting, when the dealin's done.

Words of "The Gambler". Remember that you are a Speculator, not a gambler.

Gambling is 50/50.
Speculating stacks the odds in your favour.
Study to be a Speculator.

I know that card counters will argue but, in fact, they are leaning toward the speculation side of gambling also.
  • #24
  • Apr 26, 2006 9:54am Apr 26, 2006 9:54am
Bemac, I would agree with that. It is the casino who is the speculator. the law of large numbers and probability always wins over time...

Scott


Quoting Bemac
There'll be time enough for counting, when the dealin's done.

Words of "The Gambler". Remember that you are a Speculator, not a gambler.

Gambling is 50/50.
Speculating stacks the odds in your favour.
Study to be a Speculator.

I know that card counters will argue but, in fact, they are leaning toward the speculation side of gambling also.
  • #25
  • Apr 27, 2006 2:50pm Apr 27, 2006 2:50pm
Quoting smjones
Bemac, I would agree with that. It is the casino who is the speculator. the law of large numbers and probability always wins over time...

Scott
I like the idea of comparing the Casino with the Speculator. It makes sense.
  • #26
  • May 5, 2006 10:18pm May 5, 2006 10:18pm
BRAVO SIR!!!

Very,Very interesting. My nest move is to learn how to save certain posts. This will be the first. (other then click-n-past)

Again, thank you for sharing that.
  • #27
  • May 5, 2006 10:19pm May 5, 2006 10:19pm
Ok, let me try this agin...

Bravo Sir,
Thanks for sharing this



Quoting Bear73
Aparsai

I am normally reluctant to post on here because last time I posted I got bombarded with questions that I didn't have to time to answer.

You can make this a living if you want. Alot of people will tell you this system and that , but you have to remember that each persons brain works differently and only you can tell what works for you. The person that originally showed me forex , makes a substantial amount each month from forex , more than a 65 year old guy (my teacher) can spend , but didn't work for me. I ended up using a system that was designed for stocks and overlayed against what I had been taught and the 2 of them together really made serious points. There was a study done in New York about 12 years ago with 20 students, they were given 5 different trading strategies , the amazing thing was that a different 20% exceled in each trading strategy , meaning that each persons brains work slightly differently.

You have to follow the "Bruce Lee" method of learning. His style , was as he said , "All styles and none" , which is to say that he learn't them all but didn't use a lot of it , but understood the thinking behind it and the thought. I know an awful lot about techincal analysis , but for my trading I use very little of what I have learn't , but i still understand everything else.

I would make sure you learn as much about your "traders mind" and the psych as you can , because over time this is 10 times more important than the technical analysis , and also risk management which is what actually makes you money , not the analysis of the charts. For example , I was reading a book called "Trading in the Zone" by Mark Douglas , all the your traders mind , in there he mentions about a "Risk Free Trade" , basically having a trade that you are unable to loose money on and the fact that this totally changes your thinking , you become a lot more objective and a lot clearer and the levels of emotions are reduced considerably. I basically added this on to my strategy of having a zero stop after being profitable by 20 points , I had a greater number of non profitable trades (ie , not making a thing), but the level of successful trades (not loosing anything) went to the 90% level of all my trades , and the average number of points profit per trade increased , even though I was getting a higher proportion of trades being stopped out for a zero.

If you are really serious about doing this and making very decent cash , I would become a Bruce Lee and learn as much as you can , without accepting any "guru" with this system or that , you will go in a circle and feel overloaded from information and then you will simplify your strategy and risk management and get to the next level. The sooner you "be your own man" the sooner you will get to make a decent living out of it. You should be able to do it in 2 years , if you don't look for short cuts and are willing to open your mind to new ideas but at the same time not accepting them as fact. Remember that this system may work now , but eventually it will stop working , but the market's fear and greed mentality will never change. It is the same now as when the Japanese started the first futures market in the world for rice over 500 years ago.....

From my own development and talking to other professional traders over the years , your progression should roughly follow this route-

1) Excitement as finding the pot of gold that will solve all of lifes problems
2) Following a "gurus" strategy without question
3) Becoming disenchanted when you realise that the system has faults
4) Thinking that if you learn more things will make it easier to get trades correct
5) Learning every piece of technical analysis you can looking for something that will give you 100% of correct trades
6) Having technical paralysis , having 6 different things giving conflicting signals and not taking a trade at all and then beating yourself up for not taking it and missing points when your "gut" feeling told you it was going to go there
7) Concentrating on one thing and having it go correct all the times but getting stopped out on them at the bottom of a pullback
8) Lightning bolt ! Realising that the reason you are not successful is not because of your strategy , but your mental state and the willingness to completely accept risk
9) Understanding that the market is not an absolute and that it is a graphical representation of the collective thoughts of in infinate number of traders all thinking indepentantly and that unless you know the reasons why the market reacts to things you will never have any faith in the technical indicators you are using (making a new low in stocks, means EVERY holder is now loosing money , etc etc etc )
10) Accepting the market as a whole and that anything can happen and only your risk management will stop you doing serious damage and that there is always tomorrow and another trade and there is no need to worry if you miss this one.

I am a professional trader and after many years of trading from home , have recently decided to work for a major trading house again as I am going bored and lonely at home. The things that they asked me in the interview were not what my trading strategy was , but all about my mental space and risk management , because to them that was more important than your strategy or your win/loss rate. That should tell you something......

I know this post doesn't tell you the magic formula to press this button or that and make money, but I hope this helps you anyway.

Have a good day !

Bear
  • #28
  • May 6, 2006 12:01pm May 6, 2006 12:01pm
No problems Cobolt.

So long as there are people out there who are willing to put in the time to learn and be "their own man" to become the jedi master then I will always be happy to help.

There is so much rubbish out there for people to trying to learn that sometimes I am surprised at even the 1% of people that truely master it.

You might want to have a look at a couple of books that I recommend Colbolt. One is "Trading in the Zone" by Mark Douglas and the other ones are both by Daryl Guppy , "Trend Trading" and "Money Management" , these last 2 will be hard for anyone outside of Australia to find , but you can order them from the guppytraders website, the cost is negligable.

All the best Cobolt

Bear
  • #29
  • May 6, 2006 5:55pm May 6, 2006 5:55pm
Bear 73,

I will own "Trading In The Zone" before my head hits a pillow.
I will have it finished by the end of the week.

Your correct about the Daryl Gubby books, hard to find, but I will track them down.

Your time was not wasted, sir.

Regards:
  • #30
  • Edited 8:25pm May 6, 2006 7:05pm | Edited 8:25pm
Bear,

I see from your charts that you are a fan of Guppy MMAs. What is your opinion of Guppy's book Market Trading Tactics. This is one of the Guppy books that is readily available outside Australia.. Thanks much for you valuable time, Scott


Quoting Bear73
No problems Cobolt.

So long as there are people out there who are willing to put in the time to learn and be "their own man" to become the jedi master then I will always be happy to help.

There is so much rubbish out there for people to trying to learn that sometimes I am surprised at even the 1% of people that truely master it.

You might want to have a look at a couple of books that I recommend Colbolt. One is "Trading in the Zone" by Mark Douglas and the other ones are both by Daryl Guppy , "Trend Trading" and "Money Management" , these last 2 will be hard for anyone outside of Australia to find , but you can order them from the guppytraders website, the cost is negligable.

All the best Cobolt

Bear
  • #31
  • May 6, 2006 7:53pm May 6, 2006 7:53pm
I have also embarked on the great adventure. I just wish that it would only take 4 to 8 hours per day in front of the computer.

Probably the most difficult thing for many people may be the difficulty of developing consistency. Even if you follow your plan, the problem is that the market changes, therefore unless your rules change, you will not get consistent results. The rules which work whe the market is trending usually do not do very well when the market is rangeing, and very little (other than abstaining from trading) works when the market is totally chaotic.

The problem with this is that if you are depending on forex for your paycheck,you had better put some away on the good weeks, because there are likely to be weeks with no payday.
  • #32
  • May 6, 2006 9:00pm May 6, 2006 9:00pm
Yes, mooonchild is so right. My sister knows a guy that lives near her in FL. He lives on the ocean, has a nice big boat and his wife doesn't even work. He does very well with forex. Last year, he made a whopping $2,000. That is a very scarey thought.
JOHN 3:16
  • #33
  • May 7, 2006 12:17am May 7, 2006 12:17am
At first I did what everyone does--I lost some money. Not a lot, simply because I did not have a lot in my account to start with.

Then I improved and I would win some then lose about the same amount--in other words I was going nowhere--something like when the market is going sideways.

Now it has been less than 6 months since I started and I seem to be consistently making pips. No, I am not a millionaire, not even close, but I am a hundredaire (someone needs to create that word) and I am approaching being a thousandaire. I keep wondering when the whole thing will collapse because I just have not been at it long enough. It is becoming increasingly difficult to place a trade because I am afraid that my 'luck' is overextended. Somehow the more money I have in my account, the more I seem to become more cautious rather than less. I should be able to place more trades, but I am placing less. There is something wrong with this picture and I think that it is a basic lack of self-confidence. I hope that my success continues (and increases) and that that gives me the self-confidence I lack, because I think that I took the cautions about the high probability of losing too much to heart. I think that the fear is not of losing trades but of not being personally good enough to succeed.

Anyway I intend to continue learning, continue trading, continue trying to make the best possible trades and avoiding making the bad or marginal ones because now forex is what I do (all day every day).

Is it possible that people are sometimes being excessively warned about the risk of losing at forex and the low probability of succeeding?
  • #34
  • May 7, 2006 12:28am May 7, 2006 12:28am
moonchild,

Here is an idea for you. If you are scared to lose that money, withdraw some of it. Save it and start over with what you ahd to begin with. Build that up and when it gets to a certain point, withdraw it again and so on. Or another thing you could do is open a sub-account and have 2 or 3 accounts that are small. Then at don't have that larger balance staring you in the face everytime you look at it.

just my two cents
JOHN 3:16
  • #35
  • May 7, 2006 2:15am May 7, 2006 2:15am
Quoting moonchild

Now it has been less than 6 months since I started and I seem to be consistently making pips. No, I am not a millionaire, not even close, but I am a hundredaire (someone needs to create that word) and I am approaching being a thousandaire. I keep wondering when the whole thing will collapse because I just have not been at it long enough. It is becoming increasingly difficult to place a trade because I am afraid that my 'luck' is overextended. Somehow the more money I have in my account, the more I seem to become more cautious rather than less. I should be able to place more trades, but I am placing less. There is something wrong with this picture and I think that it is a basic lack of self-confidence. I hope that my success continues (and increases) and that that gives me the self-confidence I lack, because I think that I took the cautions about the high probability of losing too much to heart. I think that the fear is not of losing trades but of not being personally good enough to succeed.

It's normal.

Let us assume, you've got a job where u earn 10 Dollar an hour.

No, you bet some of your incomes in an hors rase.

You would feel different, if you'd place the earnin' of a five-hour day or of
a whole week income with a work of five hours every day.
  • #36
  • May 7, 2006 2:25am May 7, 2006 2:25am
I can feel your pain on the self-confidence issue. I felt the same way. But I started to change the way I think (Fiji helped tons here).

You wrote:
Is it possible that people are sometimes being excessively warned about the risk of losing at forex and the low probability of succeeding?
I feel the same way… I can do 1/2 of what anyone else can do.

We all have the same mental capacity. Our brain is no larger, or smaller then the wealthiest trader on the planet.

So what is it that separates us, from them?

In my opinon, It is the way they think.

It is NOT HARD. You do not have to RISK one dime to make it in this business. You can demo your way to the top!!

It just takes time…..and that takes patience.

I make very good use of my time when it comes to this business. So far, I am very please. As long as I am learning and continue to learn, I am the winner. And I have complete control of how much I learn. Some might think it is overload, but I like the feeling of being overloaded.
I have received a ton of help on this form. At this point, I take MUCH more then I give. I read a TON.

And to all of you that share your useful knowledge, I wish you continued success.

I think we will do just fine!
  • #37
  • May 7, 2006 2:30am May 7, 2006 2:30am
Quoting renasdad
moonchild,

Here is an idea for you. If you are scared to lose that money, withdraw some of it. Save it and start over with what you ahd to begin with. Build that up and when it gets to a certain point, withdraw it again and so on. Or another thing you could do is open a sub-account and have 2 or 3 accounts that are small. Then at don't have that larger balance staring you in the face everytime you look at it.

just my two cents

The point is not that I am afraid of losing the money, because I am not. Actually, I have a history of handling very large sums, much larger than I will ever see in my forex account, so lots of 0's do not bother me.

I must not have made my point very well because what I was trying to comunicate is that we make such a fuss over people losing money, and there being such a low probability of success, that it may become a self-fulfilling prophecy. It can cause doubts when you are succeeding but wonder what is wrong. You have to wonder at some level whether it will just turn around on you. I realize what is happening and it is still causing me difficulties which I have had to overcome. As I stated I have done this because I continue to trade. I just wonder whether others end up failing because they half expect to, because they have been conditioned to believe that it is hard and that they are most likely going to fail. Yes, people should be warned of the risk, but we may be overdoing it. That was the point I was trying to make.

What actually made it worse is that although it admittedly required a great deal of study and work, compared with other things I have done in my life, it has come easily and quickly.

As to making smaller size accounts, I would recommend that that not be done. I worked out the mathematics and I realized that the smaller the account the more likely I would be to blow it. The main reason I lost money at first was because I could not set proper stops due to too little money in the account. When I had a decent amount of money in the account then everything changed (I am not talking about really large amounts, just appropriate amounts, as opposed to small amounts). I will never again have an account with less than $1000 because that truly is a recipe for failure.

What I was trying to say is that it is not the money but the fact of succeeding which is the issue.
  • #38
  • May 7, 2006 3:06am May 7, 2006 3:06am
Quoting Colbolt2
Dillist,

You wrote in post #5:
Expect to have "forex" on the brain for 4 to 8 hours each day

I am still gut laughing about that one.......

Hey!! I can start thinking FOREX part time!!

Seriously, did you think that you could drop that in your post and know one would pick up on it?

ol' buddy, we pick your stuff apart word by word.

4 to 8 hours a day......wait until I tell my wife about this one......

Hey, keep'em coming, we all need a chuckle every now and then....

4-8 hours a day.....You should give Leno or Lettermen the rights to use that!!
I must be dense. I don't see why that's funny.
sxaxlxvxaxtxixoxnxbxyxgxrxaxcxexdxoxtxoxrxgx
  • #39
  • May 7, 2006 3:19am May 7, 2006 3:19am
Quoting moonchild
Yes, people should be warned of the risk, but we may be overdoing it.
Something profound just occurred to me [this likely won't make sense to anyone else as my background is likely unique in some respects].

moonchild - you make an extremely valid point. Please allow me to elaborate - I'm 25 and have just finished my business degree, finally, after too long. I've had to take time off of school over the years in order to finance my degree as I find that working a job during school just doesn't go well for me. The job that I performed to make ends meet was as a roughneck on an oil rig in Alberta, Canada. This experience just put your comment about risk into perspective for me. On the rig I was exposed to hydrogen sulphide gas on a regular basis [go read up on h2s gas and then talk to me about risk] and yet I'm still here. I performed tasks that could have easily killed me if conducted improperly [think high pressure flammable gas and tools that could possible create sparks].

My point is that each of these risks was successfully mitigated through proper training, planning and procedure - not unlike the ways that we mitigate risk in FX. The difference being that on the rig I never consciously once thought about whether or not I should cap a gas well that was beginning to blow out - I just did it automatically to reduce the risk of death. Now why is it that its not that automatic to execute stops?

I'm likely rambling here, but I find myself thinking that this FX thing is easy compared to 18 hour days of hard labour for periods of up to 30 or 40 days straight. I was never consciously affraid for my life while on the rig floor with my h2s monitor alarm going off - because i knew that there was an airpack within my reach and I could be breathing supplied air in 10 seconds.

Back to what moonchild said, if the rig companies dwelled on these points in hiring new people - no one would ever come work for them. I guess my point is that all the risk avoidance tools someone should need exist in FX, so why don't we simply employ them all, trade without fear, and enjoy the fruits of our labours.

Does it need to be any harder than that? I'll qualify all of this by saying that I'm not a profitable trader, but after this realization - I absolutely know that I will be - starting tomorrow.
  • #40
  • May 7, 2006 9:07am May 7, 2006 9:07am
Quoting diallist
I must be dense. I don't see why that's funny.
It was my way of saying I can not even imagine shutting my brain off from working on this. It was my way of saying I was commited to this. ANd I am, I work on it very hard. If I am awake, I am thinking risk, pin bars...

I just thought it might be taken that way.

I will not litter the form with my attemps at humor.

Dave
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