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Walk the Talk from a fun loving discretionary trader 46 replies

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Cesarnc's market talk, gossips, rumours & fun

  • #26,201
  • Apr 23, 2012 7:51am Apr 23, 2012 7:51am
Quoting dswk
Go exit There : 1.3130 ... Will see now... One2One Bull on M30...

Here are the H4 graph and the M30 graph.
..........Nice charts dswk, nice in deed, i told you that gbp was in front of a wal ah?......and that yurow will follow......told roro friday that we were going down perhaps, now we may go up again, is a mess out there.......but the 30M is telling the story well........
The Chonchy
  • #26,202
  • Apr 23, 2012 8:39am Apr 23, 2012 8:39am
Quoting chonchy
..........Nice charts dswk, nice in deed, i told you that gbp was in front of a wal ah?......and that yurow will follow......told roro friday that we were going down perhaps, now we may go up again, is a mess out there.......but the 30M is telling the story well........

good call Chonchy......didn't short the DOW and not shorting it here either. did sell A/J into the PPI print last night...that is it. think to close it out and wait.

leary about shorting the Pound...just not going anywhere yet, at least..........i agree, it is a mess
  • #26,203
  • Apr 23, 2012 10:07am Apr 23, 2012 10:07am
Just a day after the first round of elections here in France, and the weather is tempestuous and the winds boding ill fortune.

Yes, arrived back home to find the calm that greeted the beginning of Spring to have been shattered by a moody climate.
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  • #26,204
  • Apr 23, 2012 10:14am Apr 23, 2012 10:14am
It's a similar picture on the DOW, albeit with a tentative expansion plot that is too convincing for me, and with a standard greed 88.6 fib seemingly holding price up.
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  • #26,205
  • Apr 23, 2012 10:23am Apr 23, 2012 10:23am
Quote
Original post by 45Condor
....of course this is on the basis of no market manipulation by CB's, therefore, one has to tread with caution....
that pretty much sums it up for me, and the DAX is back to 6500 which was last seen just post LTRO1

printers make me nervous......the selling on the DOW is not convincing and maybe that is a totally useless index but if the DAX turns up the Dow will run higher.

all of this negative news out of Europe and weak prints in Aus and the Eur is holding 1.31

being cautious

nice charts
  • #26,206
  • Apr 23, 2012 10:24am Apr 23, 2012 10:24am
For completion, the FTSE. Again, similar picture to the other indices, with the PA on the daily and below capturing my interest.
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  • #26,207
  • Apr 23, 2012 10:27am Apr 23, 2012 10:27am
Quoting roro53
nice charts
If I can bring aesthetic presentation to trading failure, I feel better about the losses…
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  • #26,208
  • Apr 23, 2012 10:36am Apr 23, 2012 10:36am
Quoting 45Condor
If I can bring aesthetic presentation to trading failure, I feel better about the losses…
i had some shorts last week on the CAC (FRA40) and did all right but exited too early

my next weak sister beyond the CAC was FTSE but selling the FTSE has been harder (imo) and with the DAX at sig S at 6500 i am leary of being short, especially as you pointed out in the context of central bank intervention and all it takes is a match and then there is a turn higher on fumes.

it is difficult. the distortions are extraordinary

i want to buy the Nikki here (9400) but if the selling gets momentum then next S is really 9000 and then BOJ is back to square 1.

i am in and out of trades..not hanging around.....not at all confident about the Pound either (short i mean)
  • #26,209
  • Apr 23, 2012 10:50am Apr 23, 2012 10:50am
A week in, and a whole 60 pips or so in the green. This instrument is a slow ticker, perhaps even a grind, but she does present if one has patience.

I'll be catious come the month end, as there always seems to be some sort of swap between these two currencies - orchestrated, as far as I know, between the BoE and the ECB - that pumps this instrument one way or the other.
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  • #26,210
  • Apr 23, 2012 10:56am Apr 23, 2012 10:56am
And this bugger is really annoying. A week in, and five pips to show for my trouble so far.

The charts are pretty much self-explanatory, with the 1.31 region/standard green 61.8 fib acting like a magnet. This surely cannot go on for another week or so, can it? Come on, break one way or the other... we are all bored. Well, we that are not scalpers.
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  • #26,211
  • Apr 23, 2012 11:01am Apr 23, 2012 11:01am
Quoting 45Condor
And this bugger is really annoying. A week in, and five pips to show for my trouble so far.

The charts are pretty much self-explanatory, with the 1.31 region/standard green 61.8 fib acting like a magnet. This surely cannot go on for another week or so, can it? Come on, break one way or the other... we are all bored. Well, we that are not scalpers.
what is your take on Egypt?
  • #26,212
  • Apr 23, 2012 11:09am Apr 23, 2012 11:09am
Quoting roro53
what is your take on Egypt?
Hot, dusty and full of spent spies. Add to that the farce of the Western public believing the Western media about the freshness that was to come with the Arab Spring, and the consequent, but not at all surprising realization that fundamentalism is to sweep the vacant offices of power, and I would say the future does not bode well.

Oh, and the pyramids are a disappointment hemmed in by cheap housing, tacky tourist shops, and lousy touts masquerading as erudite guides to the history of the Pharaohs.

Frankly, I found it a shithole.

Oh, hang on, I think you ask in relation to trading. Pff, no idea good Sir.
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  • #26,213
  • Apr 23, 2012 11:15am Apr 23, 2012 11:15am
lol......heard the same thing from another also informed up close.........

guess it has been supplying israel with most of its NG up until recently.

no mo so, yes, asked in the price context....tinderbox?


Quoting 45Condor
Hot, dusty and full of spent spies. Add to that the farce of the Western public believing the Western media about the freshness that was to come with the Arab Spring, and the consequent, but not at all surprising realization that fundamentalism is to sweep the vacant offices of power, and I would say the future does not bode well.

Oh, and the pyramids are a disappointment hemmed in by cheap housing, tacky tourist shops, and lousy touts masquerading as erudite guides to the history of the Pharaohs.

Frankly, I found it a shithole.

Oh, hang on,...
  • #26,214
  • Apr 23, 2012 11:34am Apr 23, 2012 11:34am
double bottom at 1360 S&P 4H?.........looks like it
  • #26,215
  • Apr 23, 2012 11:42am Apr 23, 2012 11:42am
Quoting roro53
lol......heard the same thing from another also informed up close.........

guess it has been supplying israel with most of its NG up until recently.

no mo so, yes, asked in the price context....tinderbox?
It is an interesting dilemma. As far as energy and water go, Israel needs Egypt, more than Egypt needs Israel.

I expect Mossad are busy, and the US, too. I'm waiting for the Russians to offer to build a pipe to Israel once Syria is consumed into the US of ME. I doubt the Saudis can be persuaded to go public with any supplies… that said, those buggers follow the money, and the backroom direction of the US, so who knows.

And did I tell you that my lonely planet guide to Cairo, and the section on the Pyramids, was disputed by the guide who super-glued himself to me as I tried to wander the area alone? Hey, and get this, I still gave the guy a tip... albeit a few dollars. I kick myself everytime I think about it.
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  • #26,216
  • Apr 23, 2012 11:57am Apr 23, 2012 11:57am
thanks a lot for all the charts on diferent pairs 45condor as usual an amainzing display of deep analisis encompass them, agree in all terms......

@roro, if you don't wanted to short the Dow earlier, don't now, is allready turning for the up, I wouldn't go up but is not down anyways, is out of sinc, if you ask me price is trying to break out of this triangle, wish is a big one, so after that it may go far, where? oh that is a good one, where ever they want (CB) to take it, depending of who is short and long after they see all the orders, my 2 cents.....that is why I stay with my small TF's.........

triangle......coincidently, fxhermit's tool is there on the third target +/-, I took this trade on demo, I wasn't sure about the short eather, or bether say, I was afraid, so is bether safe than sorry.....

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.........A bether view.....the second target coinside with the smaller trend line there........coinsidently

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The Chonchy
  • #26,217
  • Apr 23, 2012 11:57am Apr 23, 2012 11:57am
so the dot is israel turns to russia for NG and has to take its eye off iran. tricky

read a real interesting piece (informed) over the weekend about US shale oil (played in msm as boon for Am domestic consumption - supply runnth over hype) but when you get the economics and short life span with limited production capability of a successful venture it is also obvious the costs are too high to afford many misses.



Quoting 45Condor
It is an interesting dilemma. As far as energy and water go, Israel needs Egypt, more than Egypt needs Israel.

I expect Mossad are busy, and the US, too. I'm waiting for the Russians to offer to build a pipe to Israel once Syria is consumed into the US of ME. I doubt the Saudis can be persuaded to go public with any supplies… that said, those buggers follow the money, and the backroom direction of the US, so who knows.

And did I tell you that my lonely planet guide to Cairo, and the section on the Pyramids, was disputed by the guide who super-glued...
  • #26,218
  • Apr 23, 2012 12:03pm Apr 23, 2012 12:03pm
Quoting chonchy

@roro, if you don't wanted to short the Dow earlier, don't now, is allready turning for the up, I wouldn't go up but is not down anyways, is out of sinc
honestly, i am starting to think the Dow is useless piece of sh_t as an index
  • #26,219
  • Edited 12:23pm Apr 23, 2012 12:11pm | Edited 12:23pm
Quoting 45Condor
And this bugger is really annoying. A week in, and five pips to show for my trouble so far.

The charts are pretty much self-explanatory, with the 1.31 region/standard green 61.8 fib acting like a magnet. This surely cannot go on for another week or so, can it? Come on, break one way or the other... we are all bored. Well, we that are not scalpers.

.........45condor, in orther for me to understand your charts bether, I will need to bother you with one question, who marks the trend in this charts? lets say on your daily chart, is it the green line that tells you when all MA's are under it, it means that the trend is down or it is any other MA?

for example in this chart of 30M the trend is up due to the fact that all MA's are over the magenta 200 EMA, and aqua is sliding the magenta to keep the up trend, red is over so the trend is up for me, medium term, since the higher TF's give the same information but for the long term trend, 30M, one hour and 4H tell me about the midum term trend, is there a similar way to see yours? or is it the same more or less........
The Chonchy
  • #26,220
  • Apr 23, 2012 12:15pm Apr 23, 2012 12:15pm
Quoting roro53
honestly, i am starting to think the Dow is useless piece of sh_t as an index
.........for me is a good indicator, when it moves, yurow follow, now or later, but I haven't keep an eye on it lately because my computer broke down were I had a thinkorswim platform, I don't have it yet on the new one, and it ocupies too much space anyways, so I can't help much on that, bussy keeping focus on the 30M chart, one hour and 4H.......with the e/u, wish for me is a lot........small mind you know........
The Chonchy
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