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Are you a consistently profitable trader?

  • #321
  • Apr 11, 2012 1:10pm Apr 11, 2012 1:10pm
Quoting DedMatvey
Please send me a PM with more details.
FX4
Hi FX4,
When trying to send you a PM I can only see this:

FX4Newbies has chosen not to receive private messages or may not be allowed to receive private messages. Therefore you may not send your message to him/her.

If you are trying to send this message to multiple recipients, remove FX4Newbies from the recipient list and send the message again.

Can you send a PM to me with some other details where I can send my PM?

Regards,[/quote]

Very strange. I send PMs and receive them all the time. Did you add me to your buddy list?

Not sure why you are getting that message.

FX4...
Trade what you see, not what you think or feel. Let the market come to you.
  • #322
  • Apr 12, 2012 5:52am Apr 12, 2012 5:52am
Quoting DedMatvey
Please send me a PM with more details.
FX4
Quote

Hi FX4,
When trying to send you a PM I can only see this:

FX4Newbies has chosen not to receive private messages or may not be allowed to receive private messages. Therefore you may not send your message to him/her.

If you are trying to send this message to multiple recipients, remove FX4Newbies from the recipient list and send the message again.

Can you send a PM to me with some other details where I can send my PM?

Regards,

Thanks for the PM. Will try to get back to you by tomorrow.

FX4
Trade what you see, not what you think or feel. Let the market come to you.
  • #323
  • Edited 3:25am Apr 15, 2012 3:13am | Edited 3:25am
At midnight we're coming up on the "half-way point" for the month. I plan to post a comparison of the results from the end of March to now to see how things have shaped up. Then, it will keep running and I'll check again at the end of April. Of course, the poll keeps on going from there....

FX4
Trade what you see, not what you think or feel. Let the market come to you.
  • #324
  • Edited 11:21am Apr 16, 2012 3:43am | Edited 11:21am
How the poll results now (posted in red) compared to March 31st...(the first 3 days of the poll):

QUESTION: By the definition given, are you a consistently profitable trader?

Here is what is meant by consistently profitable:

Assuming there are no additional deposits or withdrawals, your LIVE account ending balance showed an increase at the end of the month from the previous month, and this was done for at least 3 consecutive months in a calendar year. Three consecutive months that roll over to a new calendar year will count.

Yes, I am currently. ............................................http://www.forexfactory.com/clear.gif39 51.32%..............................66 43.14%

No, I have never been. ........................................12 15.79%...............................36 23.53%

Yes, I have been, but not currently..........................2 2.63% ................................12 7.84%
No, but I have had a profitable month. ....................15 19.74%..............................19 12.42%

I am still trading in a demo account. ........................ 8 10.53%..............................20 13.07%

Total Voters: ......................................................76.......................................153

Only members who are logged in are allowed to vote. The poll continues...Let's see how things shape up by April 30th, 2012.


Any thoughts?

FX4
Trade what you see, not what you think or feel. Let the market come to you.
  • #325
  • Apr 17, 2012 10:20pm Apr 17, 2012 10:20pm
So far, the largest percentage of voters are still in the category of Consistently Profitable Traders.

And the poll goes on....

FX4
Trade what you see, not what you think or feel. Let the market come to you.
  • #326
  • Apr 18, 2012 6:29am Apr 18, 2012 6:29am
the poll results are not that far out of line with current profitability reports ....

are the numbers accurate...... who can say..... quite possibly they are......

it was a simple ability to profit poll among active forex traders about their forex results on a forex forum.... so we might should expect their profitability to be better than industry standards.....

just as we should expect the average member over at the equine forum to be more adept at horse riding than the average saturday night cowboy......h
to trade and code, keep both simple... no call to impress....h
  • #327
  • Apr 18, 2012 6:50am Apr 18, 2012 6:50am
Quoting hayseed
the poll results are not that far out of line with current profitability reports ....

are the numbers accurate...... who can say..... quite possibly they are......

[size=3][b]it was a simple ability to profit poll among active forex traders about their forex results on a forex forum.... so we might should expect their profitability to be better than industry standards.....

just as we should expect the average member over at the equine forum to be more adept at horse riding than the average...
Good logic there hayseed. Also, that link to Forex Magnates was an excellent one. Thanks.

Regards,

FX4
Trade what you see, not what you think or feel. Let the market come to you.
  • #328
  • Apr 22, 2012 11:01am Apr 22, 2012 11:01am
I like the theme and demeanor of this thread, so I would like to contribute my successes and challenges.

2011 was my first successful year trading any financial asset. My ROI was 29% before taxes. I am pleased with this, but my expectation is to gain that amount on a monthly basis trading Forex. So, I have much work to do.

My challenge is confidence and consistency. For 2012, I am down significantly in live trading. In January, I experienced 9 consecutive loses. The probability of this occurrence was 2.1% (=1-BINOMDIST(0,219-9+1,0.36^9,FALSE)) based on the 64% win rate over 219 trades (27 months). So, being down so much, I lost confidence and decided to just demo trade for a while. For 2012, my demo trades (using the same method) yielded a 15% ROI, we on the way to a great year. FYI, my risk per trade is 5%.

So here's my self evaluation.
Positive:
1. Consistent trading method. Live trading for 1 1/2 years without changing the method. Live trading was preceded by 2 1/2 back-testing (and 3 months of demo).
2. I maintain a detail record of my trading. This really helps, because it shows me that I can be successful at Forex trading and that my approach is viable.
3. I trade mini lots based on a set equity risk per trade, 5%.

Cons:
1. Risk per trade may be too high. But, I based this of the probability of consecutive losses. Even is the probability is low, this does not mean it will not happen. I believe it's important to have in mind a number of consecutive losses that you will tolerate before going back to demo. But, probability may not be the right answer. A fixed total loss percent may be the best approach, ie stop trading and go back to demo if max draw-down reaches 50% for example.
2. When losses occur I lose confidence and interest. Therefore, I miss out on winning trades that may follow the losing streak.

As a side note: My 2011 gain was 29%, but if I had the confidence to have taken every single trade at 5% equity risk per trade my gain would have been nicely over 100%.

My experience tells me this, a good trading method can not lead to financial success unless you learn to deal with the emotion/mental aspects of trading.

Posting this assessment is of value to me. Hopefully, others will benefit as well.

John
  • #329
  • Apr 22, 2012 2:23pm Apr 22, 2012 2:23pm
Up till today, I am not. But I have been actively learning and improving on my strategy, so I will get there.

I will share some of my lessons and what makes me a not profitable trader.

1. Lack Discipline -- I have months where I can earn a positive return but then I let me emotions get in the way. The next month I will perform poorly. Until I can manage to follow my strategy with discipline again, it is extremely difficult to make money.

2. Trading without a stoploss -- This is one of the mistakes I made early on in my trading career (I sound way too old). At first, I hope that by having a large stoploss, I would have more winning trade. However, it's more about following in the trend without hoping that the trend would turn around, which lead me to the last point

3. Trade with the trend -- Most of the time, I have no trouble recognizing the optimal level of stop loss. The tricky part is assessing how strong and the direction of the trend is. This is where a lot of screen time and practice is needed.


Currently, I am working on entering base on simple set ups. Having read posts from making pips, I am focusing on mastering one or two simple set ups - PIN BARS.

Thank you for asking such a great question.
  • #330
  • Edited 9:13pm Apr 22, 2012 8:01pm | Edited 9:13pm
Quoting john3344
I like the theme and demeanor of this thread, so I would like to contribute my successes and challenges.

2011 was my first successful year trading any financial asset. My ROI was 29% before taxes. I am pleased with this, but my expectation is to gain that amount on a monthly basis trading Forex. So, I have much work to do.

My challenge is confidence and consistency. For 2012, I am down significantly in live trading. In January, I experienced 9 consecutive loses. The probability of this occurrence was 2.1% (=1-BINOMDIST(0,219-9+1,0.36^9,FALSE))...
Hi John,

Glad you made the decision to stop by and share your honest experiences with us. Deeply appreciated.

29% in 2011 . That calls for a celebration.

Having nine consecutive losses shows that you have a great amount of confidence in your method. It was very wise on your part to go to Demo Trading for a bit. Being on an emotional high-wire for an indefinite period is tough. Even musicians take the stress off of their guitar strings once in a while .

Your trading positives are right up there with the best on any list. Any trader who backtests their system tells me they are serious.


My challenge is confidence and consistency.

Since you have identified those weaknesses, focus on nipping them in the bud. Remember it's a process.


2. When losses occur I lose confidence and interest. Therefore, I miss out on winning trades that may follow the losing streak.

I have had to watch this on both sides: winning and losing. I don't lose interest if I win, but I need to keep my pulse on the market and keep at it, 'cause I've just struck oil so to speak. Since the market offers variable probabilities to profit, when your edge strikes gold, keep striking...don't just take your few pips...keep hammering away.

My experience tells me this, a good trading method cannot lead to financial success unless you learn to deal with the emotion/mental aspects of trading.

Posting this assessment is of value to me. Hopefully, others will benefit as well.

Once a trader gets over the novelty of shopping for a system, and the idea of the necessity of having a good trading system, then they mature (hopefully) and realize that any tool is only as effective as the person using it. Those heart-mind issues will affect the bottom line.

Think you're on a great path. Glad posting had positive results for you.

All the best,

FX4
Trade what you see, not what you think or feel. Let the market come to you.
  • #331
  • Edited Apr 23, 2012 9:31am Apr 22, 2012 9:23pm | Edited Apr 23, 2012 9:31am
Quoting setoeric12
Up till today, I am not. But I have been actively learning and improving on my strategy, so I will get there.

I will share some of my lessons and what makes me a not profitable trader.

1. Lack Discipline -- I have months where I can earn a positive return but then I let me emotions get in the way. The next month I will perform poorly. Until I can manage to follow my strategy with discipline again, it is extremely difficult to make money.

2. Trading without a stoploss -- This is one of the mistakes I made early on in my trading career (I sound...
Hi setoeric12,

Glad you like the question. I think it is one every trader needs to ask themselves and be honest about it.

On 1. - Discipline is key. What's funny is that we all want more discipline, but a trader just doesn't get it from somewhere. It comes from doing...from developing the habit by an act of our wills. When the habit is formed people say, "Oh, look how disciplined they are. I wish I had the discipline they have." Then when they are asked to stick to a routine, there is every excuse and reason why they shouldn't or can't or won't. Good that you see where you need to focus there.

On 2. - That stop loss discussion is a biggie. Somebody even started a thread about it. Some trade successfully without it; others insist on it. That's a personal thing. If you decide to use it, be very creative where you place it and when you decide to do so.

On 3. - Yes...the trend, the trend the trend...and have a way to handle those times when you find yourself on the back-hand side of it .

Mastering a simple set-up and enough screen time hours can only help to push you forward. What it comes down to at month end is + pips!!!

Keep pressing,

FX4
Trade what you see, not what you think or feel. Let the market come to you.
  • #332
  • Apr 24, 2012 6:45am Apr 24, 2012 6:45am
Quoting PhilipK
Ultramoe MIA - Regardless, I 'll add this approach to the handful I'd like to test on simulator

PhilipK,

I am so sorry!! I didn't know you posted a question for me regarding the daily 20pips.

In the case of a reversal, what I do is I calculate my loss for example:

I went long EUR/USD and got stopped out -40pips

What I do next is I just short is and B/E for the day and make +40pips.

Sometimes that won't work either, however that is very rare.

Basically it comes down to 3 trades.

1. winning
2. Break-even.
3. loss (I would not say extremely low, however pretty tight comparing to winning trades and break-even).
  • #333
  • Edited 10:55am Apr 24, 2012 8:20am | Edited 10:55am
Quoting ultramoe
PhilipK,

I am so sorry!! I didn't know you posted a question for me regarding the daily 20pips.

In the case of a reversal, what I do is I calculate my loss for example:

I went long EUR/USD and got stopped out -40pips

What I do next is I just short is and B/E for the day and make +40pips.

Sometimes that won't work either, however that is very rare.

Basically it comes down to 3 trades.

1. winning
2. Break-even.
3. loss (I would not say extremely low, however...
A quick question Ultramoe before PhilipK pops in...

Do you use an alert of some kind to let you know when you are stopped out, or do you just keep checking every so often? I would think you would want to know when you are stopped out so that you can plan/prepare your short (based on your example) or reverse entry.

FX4
Trade what you see, not what you think or feel. Let the market come to you.
  • #334
  • Apr 24, 2012 10:49am Apr 24, 2012 10:49am
Quoting FX4Newbies
A quick question Ultramoe before PhilipK pops in...

Do you use an alert of some kind to let you know when you are stopped out, or do you just keep checking every so often? I would think you would want to know when you are stopped out so that you can plan/prepare your short entry.

FX4
I do, however it doesn't make a difference anyways. Because my stop is always double my entry. So if I take 1 LOT EUR/USD my stop will be 2 LOT EUR/USD so that will automatically give me a short or long entry depending on my entry.
  • #335
  • Apr 24, 2012 11:33am Apr 24, 2012 11:33am
Quoting ultramoe
I do, however it doesn't make a difference anyways. Because my stop is always double my entry. So if I take 1 LOT EUR/USD my stop will be 2 LOT EUR/USD so that will automatically give me a short or long entry depending on my entry.
You lost me there ultramoe. Are you saying you double your position size when you reverse? What do you mean by...

Because my stop is always double my entry. So if I take 1 LOT EUR/USD my stop will be 2 LOT EUR/USD so that will automatically give me a short or long entry depending on my entry.

FX4
Trade what you see, not what you think or feel. Let the market come to you.
  • #336
  • Apr 24, 2012 11:39am Apr 24, 2012 11:39am
Quoting FX4Newbies
You lost me there ultramoe. Are you saying you double your position size when you reverse? What do you mean by...

Because my stop is always double my entry. So if I take 1 LOT EUR/USD my stop will be 2 LOT EUR/USD so that will automatically give me a short or long entry depending on my entry.

FX4
He means he is reversing position once stopped out. A sure way to whipsaw your way to a blown an account
  • #337
  • Apr 24, 2012 11:58am Apr 24, 2012 11:58am
Quoting Custos
He means he is reversing position once stopped out. A sure way to whipsaw your way to a blown an account
Not necessarily. It depends on what is happening and the reason for reversing. Just can't lump everything into the same category and say that reversing a position is a sure way to "whipsaw your way to a blown account." I am sure some of those who were short Eur-Usd this morning would have wished they had flipped. (Posted a chart on my Pitchfork Goldmine thread this morning).

Thanks for sharing your thoughts on what he meant. Hope he pops back in to either confirm or clarify.

FX4
Trade what you see, not what you think or feel. Let the market come to you.
  • #338
  • Apr 24, 2012 12:06pm Apr 24, 2012 12:06pm
Quoting FX4Newbies
Not necessarily. It depends on what is happening and the reason for reversing. Just can't lump everything into the same category and say that reversing a position is a sure way to "whipsaw your way to a blown account." I am sure some of those who were short Eur-Usd this morning would have wished they had flipped. (Posted a chart on my Pitchfork Goldmine thread this morning).

Thanks...
well, as he said his stop is ALWAYS double his entry. I can see that fit for some circumstances, but if you always reverse your position once stop is hit, then that is a sure way to get an account blown up.
  • #339
  • Apr 24, 2012 12:07pm Apr 24, 2012 12:07pm
Quoting Custos
well, as he said his stop is ALWAYS double his entry. I can see that fit for some circumstances, but if you always reverse your position once stop is hit, then that is a sure why to get an account blown up.
That's why I want him to be more explicit.

Thanks,

FX4
Trade what you see, not what you think or feel. Let the market come to you.
  • #340
  • Apr 24, 2012 12:10pm Apr 24, 2012 12:10pm
i think hes saying he dosnt place a traditional stop,but uses pending orders,if hes long and he dicides 13350 is his stop the order will be 2 sells one to cancell his long and 1 to reverse,?
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