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The Really Useless Thread

  • #79,341
  • Apr 20, 2012 9:10pm Apr 20, 2012 9:10pm
I see the adds are just as goofy as they ever were. Just saw an MB ad on the left panel advertising 1/10 pip minimum on all pairs. WTF good is that, MB? Does that mean I can do my spreadsheet with single precision arithmetic and the computer will use less electricity?

I'll be back Sunday night.
  • #79,342
  • Apr 20, 2012 9:15pm Apr 20, 2012 9:15pm
Quoting OldQuant
Yeah, I'm well. Just gotten out of the habit of hanging out. Trading platform and method are stable and effective, EUR and AUD. Still think commods should be positions, and still overall USD bearish, which means "stuff" bullish.

Been studying a lot around peak oil, prompted by the intense run-up in fracking, and the attendant bu11shit, and trying to get a handle on the huge BTU disparity caused by sub-2 buck natural gas.

Europe's in an intermission right now, but the French election might be interesting.

just jumping in here but what do you make of the FOAT thing? with MS as market maker?........and equities are falling by the wayside.......IBEX then Italy and then CAC....next is FTSE........DOW looks like it has the most to fall, if it is a fall

http://hat4uk.wordpress.com/2012/04/...n-involved-25/


http://www.zerohedge.com/news/comple...victory-matrix
  • #79,343
  • Apr 20, 2012 9:18pm Apr 20, 2012 9:18pm
Quoting OldQuant
Yeah, I'm well. Just gotten out of the habit of hanging out. Trading platform and method are stable and effective, EUR and AUD. Still think commods should be positions, and still overall USD bearish, which means "stuff" bullish.

Been studying a lot around peak oil, prompted by the intense run-up in fracking, and the attendant bu11shit, and trying to get a handle on the huge BTU disparity caused by sub-2 buck natural gas.

Europe's in an intermission right now, but the French election might be interesting.
Good news on the platform and method. Still Flipper...or evolved into something else? EUR and AUD are my daily staples, too. Have recently been swinging gold a little, too. Mostly intra-day...maybe hold for a few days.

Europe. Yes...pretty quiet these days. Spanish bonds this week...not much else. French elections could indeed bring some fuel of/for speculation.

Haven't looked at nat gas at all recently. How sub 2 buck is it? Any long term buy on the radar, or is staying down for a few years because of fracking?
  • #79,344
  • Apr 20, 2012 9:20pm Apr 20, 2012 9:20pm
Quoting OldQuant
I see the adds are just as goofy as they ever were. Just saw an MB ad on the left panel advertising 1/10 pip minimum on all pairs. WTF good is that, MB? Does that mean I can do my spreadsheet with single precision arithmetic and the computer will use less electricity?

I'll be back Sunday night.


Take care, mate. Would love to see you more often...even if only occasionally.

All the best.
  • #79,345
  • Apr 20, 2012 9:27pm Apr 20, 2012 9:27pm
:steamFace:
  • #79,346
  • Apr 20, 2012 9:28pm Apr 20, 2012 9:28pm
Quoting Chillypiper
That is ssssssssssssssssoooooooooooWrong!!!!! And he's got a fak blues shirt on too ..LOLLLL~~~~!!!!
i can find anything cool bro

lolol
  • #79,347
  • Apr 20, 2012 9:55pm Apr 20, 2012 9:55pm
Quoting fxjawn
:steamFace:
Why the steamface?
  • #79,348
  • Apr 20, 2012 9:56pm Apr 20, 2012 9:56pm
Bastards gone...
  • #79,349
  • Apr 20, 2012 9:57pm Apr 20, 2012 9:57pm
Quoting roro53
the FOAT thing? with MS as market maker?........and equities are falling by the wayside

DOW looks like it has the most to fall, if it is a fall
In truth, I think the FOAT thing is attracting too much tin-foil-hat speculation, and is a convenient political side show on top of it.

New hedging platforms rarely make big splashes quickly; the banks and holders have established derivatives they use, and billions of EUR of them already on the books; they're not going to unwind them all just to play a different game. And, when it comes to Morgan Stanley, they haven't gotten anything right in almost a decade.

And the stock market: did you see the ZH guest piece on food stamps? One in every seven Americans is in a family that lacks the income to feed itself. Gasoline stayed off 4 bucks, the pschological tipping point, this time. But the American economy is not recovering, election year window-dressing notwithstanding. I'm not real bullish on stocks, to say the least.
  • #79,350
  • Apr 20, 2012 9:59pm Apr 20, 2012 9:59pm
Quoting pkimnyc
Bastards gone...
lol

i guess kenwhore is gone lol
  • #79,351
  • Apr 20, 2012 10:15pm Apr 20, 2012 10:15pm
Quoting kenfen69
Good news on the platform and method. Still Flipper...or evolved into something else? EUR and AUD are my daily staples, too. Have recently been swinging gold a little, too. Mostly intra-day...maybe hold for a few days.

Haven't looked at nat gas at all recently. How sub 2 buck is it? Any long term buy on the radar, or is staying down for a few years because of fracking?
Basically Flipper, but with an essential modification.

If you do trend following in any sense of the term, you have to a have a rule set which flips the tracking. Doesn't matter how you do that, the super-martingale, where you lose -and expected to lose- comes in the crossing of the trigger line, because pa can and will at times park right on top of that line, leading to sequences of head fakes in the chop.

So what we did was lead and guide that crossing with successively smoother filters (that is, in generic terms: moving averages) until the probability of recross is small. At that point, let 'er buck. Trade count is cut way down, which moves the median of the trade p&l to the right, further into the "trend" side, out of the "chop."

EUR with AUD is a very pretty set. Not the triangle; the natural hedges it gives. Simply: a nearly pure politico/fiat play and a nearly pure physical play. The USD induces sufficient correlation, but not so much as the natural diversification is washed away.
  • #79,352
  • Apr 20, 2012 10:20pm Apr 20, 2012 10:20pm
i said id be back... and you didnt wait.. kiss my drippy ass.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #79,353
  • Apr 20, 2012 10:30pm Apr 20, 2012 10:30pm
NG just went below 2 for the first time in forever last week. When oil peaked around 140, gas was 11. Now oil is still 100-handle, and gas is 1- handle. So worthless it's flared off the frak wells.

And here's one thing that is being missed in the talking about gas. If it weren't so cheap, the Canadian tar sands would be just that: tar. In order to get that bitum sh!t usable, it has to literally be melted, and that takes gas. If the gas weren't so cheap, that stuff would still be sitting there worthless.

If the energy pundits knew what's second nature to forex traders -market action- they'd see the production numbers and the relative prices are in a real topping formation: no direction, high volatility, spikes and head fakes.

I just saw what time it is. Going to bed!
  • #79,354
  • Apr 20, 2012 10:31pm Apr 20, 2012 10:31pm
I Cant Pop For several days Liao...truly suffering
Hope the grenn tea can smooth my...
If there was easy money lying around,no one would be forcing it into your
  • #79,355
  • Apr 21, 2012 12:38am Apr 21, 2012 12:38am
Quoting gatorinla
i said id be back... and you didnt wait.. kiss my drippy ass.
PTL?
  • #79,356
  • Apr 21, 2012 4:41am Apr 21, 2012 4:41am
epic!!

Inserted Video
  • #79,357
  • Apr 21, 2012 6:33am Apr 21, 2012 6:33am
Quoting OldQuant
And the stock market: did you see the ZH guest piece on food stamps? One in every seven Americans is in a family that lacks the income to feed itself. Gasoline stayed off 4 bucks, the pschological tipping point, this time.

But the American economy is not recovering, election year window-dressing notwithstanding. I'm not real bullish on stocks, to say the least.
thx for the reply..........relative to other indexes the Dow is hardly off its recent 13250/75 high while european and asian indexes have sold off from between 5 to 20% which if it follows probably makes a very nice short, with a but and the but being the FED put or the inference of one lurking whenever the market gets nervous

and, if the japanese come with a massive devaluation of the Yen then you have to think it kind of floats all boats not unlike the FED's printing from 2009 which was/has been a short dollar long equity/commodity trade, and interventions have become pretty much the norm and path of least resistance for policy makers and can't see the central banks suddenly stopping it all cold

not to be argumentative but the tar sands have been in production for years and it is only fairly recently that NG has crashed below $4 and then $3......on that note i did read an assessment that put the size of the clear-cut in northern Alberta at approx the state of Florida by the time the 'thing' is finished so i guess it is a massive energy subsidy primarily at the expense of the environment...another kind of poverty imo

NG...cheap way otm calls?
  • #79,358
  • Apr 21, 2012 9:34am Apr 21, 2012 9:34am
Quoting roro53
not to be argumentative but the tar sands have been in production for years ......on that note i did read an assessment that put the size of the clear-cut in northern Alberta at approx the state of Florida by the time the 'thing' is finished so i guess it is a massive energy subsidy primarily at the expense of the environment...another kind of poverty imo
You're not being argumentative. And I was being a little too glib. I've been hearing about the tar sands literally since the '70s. It, like the shale in CO and then in ND and the Austin Chalk in TX and now the Eagle Ford shale there, it was always just a little too expensive relative to conventional recovery.

The fact that all those sources are now the focus speaks volumes that the peak-er's are right: the cost of conventional, deep vertical wells is getting prohibitive, and in fact, there just isn't that much left.

I was talking to a good friend a couple weeks ago who is a land man (I have a farm in Central TX), who gave this thumbnail of the economics of the fraks in the northern reaches of Eagle Ford. The well costs 8 million. The well might bring 120K bbl over 24 mo, which can be swapped out at $100 (it is good light, sweet oil, unlike the -shall we say, heavy- products of Alberta). The typical lease rates are 25% of production. We won't even talk about water, which you often have to pay for, too.

Pencil it out: you better not drill too many dry or low yield wells. Point is, the day of Jed Clampett wells ("then one day he was shootin' at some food, and up through the ground come a bubbl'n crude") is over. The day of 2:1 energy recovery ratios is much, much closer.

I think the real play up on this plateau isn't the crude: it's the well service layer.

Here's an example. Look at this in Google Earth: 29 36 19.30N 97 27 54.8W. This is at the N end of the feasible region for decent yield wells, and the crude is trucked in to load into those tank cars to put on the UP line a few miles north.

Which would you rather own: the wells 40 miles south of there, or that rail yard and the trucks that carry the pipe and cocktail down and the crude back up there?
  • #79,359
  • Apr 21, 2012 10:03am Apr 21, 2012 10:03am
up about 185 for the week pips risked 18.
missed a third fill on the gbp long.. waiting for the next one. atm what would be a rejection on the gbp in the 6161/64 9185 area. (if it was at 6149 i had) 6148 it went to i may have missed the entry already.. it don't matter. i miss many by a few, just like 5813 was not hit.. depending on how pa acts. even with all this bullish activity. there is a big battle in the 6165 area. flip a coin. 6149 is a lower mofu on a large stage since the 2009 bounce. the mid is 6183.xx.. i target 6161/64... with some slip 6183/4 may turn it. even if this in a bull move 50% of the previous leg is a lot of pips lower.

on a bigger chart the bear bounce of the previous leg is 1.7331.. 6750 is in the way. it indicates we are in a huge bear that started in 1992 on the gbp. what took it off track was 2002/2008 spike.. so in those years the usd was a raped. this is reflected in the price of oil. the pair has memory. in oct 1992 the pair indicated .8... we never got there. we bounced just above the mid of the predicted target. since then we bounced here 2 other times. the last in 2008.

so if we stall at 6165 ish and have a decent retrace then make a new high its probably bullish to 1.7.. if it blows through 6165 area w/o much pause or retrace. then 6230 is a upper mofu and it should be a strong one. if it dont pause or retrace... its less likely to complete 1.7... in other words looking strong is weakness.

things are changing. the u.s. is using less % of foreign oil. manufactures of high energy consuming products to make. are coming to the u.s. u.s. oil production has gone up in a very young new stage of production. in untapped fields. the highest cost in most production whether steel or vibrator plastic is energy. so cheap labor is less important then energy. natural gas energy cost used in production electricity ect is going down. this makes u.s. products cheaper to make. if they start putting it in trucks as a fuel oil should drop further. gbp is heavily attached to oil.

china china china. .... natural gas just kicked china in the nutz... less thigs to build because of high energy cost. in turn less labor needed. intern labor cost go down. this will equalize.. but in the process Vietnam and Indonesia workers cost are cheaper. and with all earning less they will buy less.
oil may drop more because demand may drop... yada yada...
dont have time to chart.. we are at key levels..
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #79,360
  • Apr 21, 2012 10:09am Apr 21, 2012 10:09am
nice posts - this is starting to sound like the shovel and gold story that a side the cost of the well maybe 8 million but that would be after trail holes and testing which would cost a million at a time before you went in gun ho but i get your point
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