Attachments: EUR/GBP - What a great pair to trade!

EUR/GBP - What a great pair to trade!

#1,661
Apr 21, 2012 10:23am Apr 21, 2012 10:23am

smikester
Joined Mar 2007 | Status: Trader | 8,618 Posts

Quoting roro53

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i see that (R - for cable) and S/R (1.6125/50ish) that goes back quite far too......1.6250 be the next big number higher?

i shorted cable the other night at 1.6025 and got out on the pullback yesterday morning so was lucky there.

i looked at your EG and so you have a b/e just above 81.65 or close?

Ignored

I set some longs on Monday which had a small TP and the rest broke even. Then a small loss on Wednesday off .8194. Now I have some trades which have already TP and the remainder at BE at .818x so they are free trades and I'm about even for the week on this pair. I'm just waiting for these to go back up to .8400. But .8212, .8220, .8230 or even .8280 would be nice.

I have cable's next higher resistance as 1.6164 but it may have peaked here to retest the March high 0f 6060 - see the cable thread for this http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...94#post5594294 and where cable is now is retesting the fib level at 61.8.

Eur/Gbp has also posted 2 daily pin bars on my feed, tweezer bottom some people call it.

So, bullish for Eur/Gbp unless the Euro drops suddenly...

Gone to a better place

#1,662
Apr 21, 2012 10:27am Apr 21, 2012 10:27am

smikester
Joined Mar 2007 | Status: Trader | 8,618 Posts

Quoting 4xpipcounter

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The pair finally hit the bottom of the monthly cloud. The recent swing low at .8077 needs to hold, or it is on to .7949. A longer term UP is around the corner. During the interim, there is enough room for a correction to .8277, maybe a little lower.

http://s17.postimage.org/qybp2so73/image.gif
picture hosting

Ignored

Thanks for posting this analysis. From your posts it looks like we are in agreement broadly speaking.

Gone to a better place

#1,663
Apr 21, 2012 2:36pm Apr 21, 2012 2:36pm

Tradertuga
| Joined Mar 2010 | Status: Trader | 193 Posts

Lets see how election goes in France, and if the left wing candidate pushes way above predictions.

Meanwhile Portugal deficit worsened...

#1,664
Apr 21, 2012 3:24pm Apr 21, 2012 3:24pm

Umbeluzi
| Joined Apr 2012 | Status: Trader | 44 Posts

Quoting Tradertuga

Disliked

Lets see how election goes in France, and if the left wing candidate pushes way above predictions.

Meanwhile Portugal deficit worsened...

Ignored

In the past french elections were a non-event, but now with a public deficit above 90% of GDP and yields rising, the picture can be different...

#1,665
Apr 21, 2012 5:27pm Apr 21, 2012 5:27pm

4xpipcounter
| Joined May 2006 | Status: 4xpipcounter | 139 Posts

You're welcome. I guess you never expect to ideally agree with anyone. Good to hear we're on the same page.

Quoting smikester

Disliked

Thanks for posting this analysis. From your posts it looks like we are in agreement broadly speaking.

Ignored

#1,666
Apr 22, 2012 5:39am Apr 22, 2012 5:39am

Tradertuga
| Joined Mar 2010 | Status: Trader | 193 Posts

Quoting Umbeluzi

Disliked

In the past french elections were a non-event, but now with a public deficit above 90% of GDP and yields rising, the picture can be different...

Ignored

I think it will. If the voters keep grabing on a economic model that's impossible to sustain the market will sense it, and send Euro down.

Besides we saw USA and Canada not reinforcing the IMF, as I see it that's USD bullish.

Lets all se how the maket reacts on Monday...

#1,667
Apr 23, 2012 2:45am Apr 23, 2012 2:45am

atif089
| Joined Apr 2012 | Status: Trader | 140 Posts

Nearing yearly lows again.. waiting for a bullish signal..

Poker is for kids, I play FOREX.

#1,668
Apr 23, 2012 3:29am Apr 23, 2012 3:29am

smikester
Joined Mar 2007 | Status: Trader | 8,618 Posts

Yes I'm a bit upset about this range and the fact that the weekend gap at my broker closed out my break even trades for a loss.

I'll trade off the break out of this range I think.

.8160 - .8200. Not my favourite pair now.

Gone to a better place

#1,669
Apr 23, 2012 6:00am Apr 23, 2012 6:00am

atif089
| Joined Apr 2012 | Status: Trader | 140 Posts

Quoting smikester

Disliked

Yes I'm a bit upset about this range and the fact that the weekend gap at my broker closed out my break even trades for a loss.

I'll trade off the break out of this range I think.

.8160 - .8200. Not my favourite pair now.

Ignored

True, anyways I am risking this with one long term and one short term position.

Both going long at 0.8164 with TP at 0.8190 and 0.8500

My Stops are 0.8150 and 0.8125

Poker is for kids, I play FOREX.

#1,670
Apr 23, 2012 5:25pm Apr 23, 2012 5:25pm

torkay77
| Joined Jul 2010 | Status: Trader | 887 Posts

am long this thingy as gbp seems to be in topping process

#1,671
Apr 23, 2012 6:59pm Apr 23, 2012 6:59pm

Umbeluzi
| Joined Apr 2012 | Status: Trader | 44 Posts

Quoting torkay77

Disliked

am long this thingy as gbp seems to be in topping process

Ignored

Maybe it has a swing trading objective. Any case I think it is a risky opening (long) despite testing 2010 lows. The bear camp has an edge for now, too many threats in these days ahead (ratings/politics in Holland, economic data worst than in UK, french elections, greek elections, spanish yields). Keep a close look. Good luck!

#1,672
Apr 24, 2012 7:08am Apr 24, 2012 7:08am

roro53
Joined May 2007 | Status: Trader | 4,268 Posts

hey smikester.......will be paying close attention to UK GDP, and with Posen moving off the bias to add stimulus i think 1.6175 is critical for gu.

a weak GDP number and i'll look get short the Pound, but not before. too much risk it may break higher

looking for FED bias from FOMC.......if FED leans away then dollar positive especially for the Yen so may make BOJ's work easier into Friday.

tricky market imo......Apple earnings slated for just after 4 NY today. that should be interesting

also think the ECB will have to come with a lot more sooner or later.....yields on Spanish bonds continue to rise, and a Hollande presidency complicates the picture especially re austerity

#1,673
Apr 25, 2012 6:29am Apr 25, 2012 6:29am

smikester
Joined Mar 2007 | Status: Trader | 8,618 Posts

Quoting roro53

Disliked

hey smikester.......will be paying close attention to UK GDP, and with Posen moving off the bias to add stimulus i think 1.6175 is critical for gu.

a weak GDP number and i'll look get short the Pound, but not before. too much risk it may break higher

looking for FED bias from FOMC.......if FED leans away then dollar positive especially for the Yen so may make BOJ's work easier into Friday.

tricky market imo......Apple earnings slated for just after 4 NY today. that should be interesting

also think the ECB will have to come with a lot more sooner...

Ignored

Hey roro! Not good GDP figures but not as bad as last year. FOMC by far more important for GBP/USD according to my research, unless nothing changes of course. I'm currently waiting for this retrace to finish (it's 12.30pm here) before I consider shorting again and I think I might have to wait until after FOMC statement.

On Eur/Gbp, I did a small long scalp and that is now closed. I'm not at all sure about these levels, weekly support and resistance here so it could remain choppy for a while. Hopefully we will get a trend.

Eur/Usd seems oddly bullish right now, bullish engulfing candle last week off 1.3. I am thinking the market believes structural reforms are possible. Let's hope so. (Unless you are short of course...)

Gone to a better place

#1,674
Apr 25, 2012 7:02am Apr 25, 2012 7:02am

roro53
Joined May 2007 | Status: Trader | 4,268 Posts

hi........missed the session but set an entry at 1.6155 and it filled......i read last night that Posen tipped the number before the release saying the ec was performing much better than the print would indicate. i figured that was the fix so put on the short with a stop up at 85. Posen's flip off the additional stimulus was the reason i was reluctant to short in the first place, but he let the cat out of the bag. the central bankers must be running a rigged pot because loose lips sink ships....the point being i don't know where the line is getting drawn between material/inside information and not.....looks like it has become pretty blurry

that was the good news. bad news was i shorted the Dow (not the brightest trade lately) .... as charts had 4H pinbars saying at least S or higher so it is about a wash overall. flat into FOMC and am wondering if BB will get into allignment and signal some kind of move away from ZIRP

looking at uc too (for a long)......dollar index looks like a bullflag has formed

Quoting smikester

Disliked

Hey roro! Not good GDP figures but not as bad as last year. FOMC by far more important for GBP/USD according to my research, unless nothing changes of course. I'm currently waiting for this retrace to finish (it's 12.30pm here) before I consider shorting again and I think I might have to wait until after FOMC statement.

On Eur/Gbp, I did a small long scalp and that is now closed. I'm not at all sure about these levels, weekly support and resistance here so it could remain choppy for a while. Hopefully we will get a trend.

Eur/Usd seems oddly bullish...

Ignored

#1,675
Apr 25, 2012 8:01am Apr 25, 2012 8:01am