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Walk the Talk from a fun loving discretionary trader 46 replies

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  • #26,161
  • Apr 21, 2012 1:41am Apr 21, 2012 1:41am
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The Chonchy
  • #26,162
  • Apr 21, 2012 1:42am Apr 21, 2012 1:42am
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The Chonchy
  • #26,163
  • Apr 21, 2012 1:53am Apr 21, 2012 1:53am
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  • #26,164
  • Apr 21, 2012 1:58am Apr 21, 2012 1:58am
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  • #26,165
  • Apr 21, 2012 2:53am Apr 21, 2012 2:53am
.......as long as it protrais freedom is fine with me.........

http://mashable.com/2012/04/20/ron-paul-video-game/
The Chonchy
  • #26,166
  • Apr 21, 2012 6:42am Apr 21, 2012 6:42am
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epic
  • #26,167
  • Apr 21, 2012 11:15am Apr 21, 2012 11:15am
Quoting ingmarforex
http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature...&v=xlKWdd_DhW0 epic
..........epic in deed ing, nice......
The Chonchy
  • #26,168
  • Apr 21, 2012 12:11pm Apr 21, 2012 12:11pm
..........My 4 charts of e/u........

there is divergence on 15M but that is a small TF to be worrie with, but it is........

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..........30M is up, all moving averages are cross to the up side, but, MACD is cross for the down allready, retrace perhaps?

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........One hour is up all MA's over 200 EMA (magenta) MACD hasen't cross for the down, signaling that is more up........

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.......Now here is where the situation changes, 4H is down, all MA's under 200EMA and 100EMA inclusive, and aqua 30EMA is also under, price has hit a resistance and bounce, not down because the feet is cut but if you go to fxstreet you will see that price keep going up after hours, but it bounce a bit from the high of the last candle, so it may keep going up but my guess is that it needs to retrace at least to the yellow 5EMA to balance, that is my 2 cents ..........trade carefull, good luck......

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The Chonchy
  • #26,169
  • Apr 21, 2012 1:15pm Apr 21, 2012 1:15pm
@roro..........

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The Chonchy
  • #26,170
  • Apr 21, 2012 2:01pm Apr 21, 2012 2:01pm
@roro........

where do you see price going over the long houl, up or down?

all trend lines are pointing down, price is retracing to charge down, and it just hit a resistance and a trend line, so it may keep going up later for a bether resistance because long term monthly is up still, but right now, next week is going down, now that forces that are watching who is long or short may keep puching up, I don't dought it eather, but that is going down because is out of sinc from one hour and 30M, is one thing, and that it goes up because the market makers want it is another thing, but thechnicaly is turning down or retracing this up move , and because is not easy to know where is going, the best thing is to wait untill sunday and see what price action on the 30M is going to do, monthly could be up, daily could be down and it takes 1000 pips to put them all together now, with all this discorrelations, so that is why I look at the 30M chart and enter true the 5m and hope for a few pips,that is all you can do lately in this brutal markets behavior, my 2 cents........

........Note that coinsidently is touching the 50% fibo........

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The Chonchy
  • #26,171
  • Apr 21, 2012 2:33pm Apr 21, 2012 2:33pm
this makes sense to me Chonchy;

relative to other indexes the Dow is hardly off its recent 13250/75 high while european and asian indexes have sold off from between 5 to 20% which if it follows probably makes (Dow) a very nice short, with a but and the but being the FED put or the inference of one lurking whenever the market gets nervous

and, if the japanese come with a massive devaluation of the Yen then you have to think it kind of floats all boats not unlike the FED's printing from 2009 which was/has been a short dollar long equity/commodity trade, and interventions have become pretty much the norm and path of least resistance for policy makers and can't see the central banks suddenly stopping it all cold

so, i guess bottom line is i am leary of being short......the Dow maybe about to realign itself to the downside but it seems resilient to me so when i am short i watch it like a hawk

the other day when the selling was happening then after ny close the sp formed a big pinbar in asia and friday the Dow was higher than the previous days' high..........i see a wedge forming and price is getting close to apex which implies a breakout

the G20 and IMF were making all the right noises this weekend and i was dying to short the pound again up at 1.6125 where there is all sorts of technical reason to short but not on a friday

i was thinking smikesters trade EG might be a nice play especially if the euro makes a run higher and the DAX also

part of what makes me suspicious about the euro falling apart is the big traders must know the risks in the bond markets but all of this is really not news .it has been known for quite a while and so far the euro cannot break 1.30 to the downside

i think i will be scaling into yen if prices are offered at better entries

the printers are in control......that is my take
  • #26,172
  • Apr 21, 2012 2:36pm Apr 21, 2012 2:36pm
..........any one can argue where this thing is going, and one can get in here long and in three days take profits and come out a winner, and one can go short here with a tite stop and get lucky and hit the jack pot, so everybody have a book, where is going? who knows, where we think is going? oh that is another story, but the story changes as we press that buthom going short or long and they are wacthing so they will make tha final desicion, against you, and is monopolized, they all go against you one way or the other, they don't go against each other, and if they do, the end result is the same, they always win, eather ben bernanky or the europeans win, at the end is only one winner, the rothshild and the builderberg families, together with the rokefelers, so me? I follow them, for now....when they fall, and they will, I will follow the market and analized and guess, for now, I follow them and their money

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The Chonchy
  • #26,173
  • Apr 21, 2012 2:43pm Apr 21, 2012 2:43pm
Quoting chonchy
..........My 4 charts of e/u........

there is divergence on 15M but that is a small TF to be worrie with, but it is........

Attachment

..........30M is up, all moving averages are cross to the up side, but, MACD is cross for the down allready, retrace perhaps?

Attachment

........One hour is up all MA's over 200 EMA (magenta) MACD hasen't cross for the down, signaling that is more up........

Attachment

.......Now here is where the situation changes, 4H is down, all MA's under 200EMA...
Looking at the divergence, any divergence is good divergence. With hope we will be going down and breaking that key 1.30000 level. The bond yields for Spain have been bouncing towards that 7% level which is considered to be unsustainable. Think of the saving to the IMF and the like if the Euro was sub 1.30000 when Spain admits in needs a bailout. Do the world a favor and go down.
  • #26,174
  • Apr 21, 2012 2:51pm Apr 21, 2012 2:51pm
Quoting roro53
this makes sense to me Chonchy;

relative to other indexes the Dow is hardly off its recent 13250/75 high while european and asian indexes have sold off from between 5 to 20% which if it follows probably makes (Dow) a very nice short, with a but and the but being the FED put or the inference of one lurking whenever the market gets nervous

and, if the japanese come with a massive devaluation of the Yen then you have to think it kind of floats all boats not unlike the FED's printing from 2009 which was/has been a short dollar long equity/commodity...
presicely, the Dow is topy, but the feds can print more, so no one know where is going to go, all we can do is wait for sunday open and see where they are going and follow them, that is my 2 cents, but if i have to guess, a retrace to this aqua 30EMA or the blue doted line that was resistance turn into suport now, is a normal retrace, add that the 100EMA red is right there to stop that retrace, if it hit it with force, it may go to the 200EMA magenta and make a full retrace and still be up, now if it goes pass that then wacth out it may deepens.......so

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The Chonchy
  • #26,175
  • Apr 21, 2012 2:55pm Apr 21, 2012 2:55pm
Quoting ChristopherM
Looking at the divergence, any divergence is good divergence. With hope we will be going down and breaking that key 1.30000 level. The bond yields for Spain have been bouncing towards that 7% level which is considered to be unsustainable. Think of the saving to the IMF and the like if the Euro was sub 1.30000 when Spain admits in needs a bailout. Do the world a favor and go down.

right on the money you are my friend, but.......is all up to them, they can reverse all is going on in a blink of an eye, so based on it, I just wait untill sunday open, follow them untill london and then deside at a break out wish way is going and ride the wave, I'm a surfer if you want to call it like that not an analiser, lol, I don't break my head anymore, my mentor ( Dove_ Alliance )told me once that I wasen't an analist, and he was right, also others have told me, but remember, I'm stuborn.........good luck on sunday my friend.......god bless.......
The Chonchy
  • #26,176
  • Apr 21, 2012 3:02pm Apr 21, 2012 3:02pm
Quoting roro53
this makes sense to me Chonchy;

relative to other indexes the Dow is hardly off its recent 13250/75 high while european and asian indexes have sold off from between 5 to 20% which if it follows probably makes (Dow) a very nice short, with a but and the but being the FED put or the inference of one lurking whenever the market gets nervous

and, if the japanese come with a massive devaluation of the Yen then you have to think it kind of floats all boats not unlike the FED's printing from 2009 which was/has been a short dollar long equity/commodity...
..........printers are in control and they will keep in control roro, but they also rest, observe and retrace, that is all I'm saying, monthly is still long, I know but a retrace is due here me think, that they will give it or not, I don't know, sunday will tell the tail.......or london, or maybe sunday asia retrace and london take it up again, we will see how she rolls........like Turtle will say....

....where are my old friends, Turtle, Ash, BWR, cesar, sycho, I miss them all.........
The Chonchy
  • #26,177
  • Apr 21, 2012 3:26pm Apr 21, 2012 3:26pm
........a daily chart..........going up, MACD up and cross, but below the 0 line and price hit a wall, an 100EMA on a round number or sich level at the end of the week, call it Peter Bain style a confluence of events, it may keep going but it may retrace, is all I'm saying....... wacth the triangle, wacth the force Luke, follow the force Luke.........the force may be with you........

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The Chonchy
  • #26,178
  • Apr 21, 2012 7:16pm Apr 21, 2012 7:16pm
.........we are winning.........I'm winning......but the media still not realized, of course not........

FIRE DEPARTMENT SAID 5500+ IN SEATS AND AN ADDITIONAL 5000+ NOT ABLE TO GET IN WERE CLIMBING TREES, STANDING IN PLANTERS AND OUTSIDE FENCES...YOU COULD HEAR THEM CHANTING OUTSIDE...IT WAS LOUD

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The Chonchy
  • #26,179
  • Apr 21, 2012 7:27pm Apr 21, 2012 7:27pm
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  • #26,180
  • Apr 21, 2012 7:34pm Apr 21, 2012 7:34pm
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