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  • #3,301
  • Apr 20, 2012 4:59am Apr 20, 2012 4:59am
looks like it wants to go through to me. Getting less scared of the level.
  • #3,302
  • Apr 20, 2012 5:14am Apr 20, 2012 5:14am
Some good questions on here folks.

I'm not ignoring them - I'm busy trading but I will see they are answered in the Sunday webinar.
  • #3,303
  • Apr 20, 2012 5:16am Apr 20, 2012 5:16am
Quoting BadgerMatt
Tom doesn't trade Sfps on a D1 because it means having such a wide stop, but will use them for directional bias and then look to get in on the H1. I am considering looking for and entering short on a break and retest of the minor H1 S/R pivot at around 1.6043ish. Without D1 bias I would not consider this level to be anywhere near good enough. If that works then the stop will be H1 based, because so is my entry. Because of the D1 bias I would not take profit until the FTA based on the daily timeframe.

Again, I'm a novice so treat my advice with...
Thanks Matt, I remember reading this now.
  • #3,304
  • Edited 1:46pm Apr 20, 2012 6:40am | Edited 1:46pm
At risk of ridicule will admit to doing it again - lol - not. My second attempt at a SFP trade stopped out by 1 pip - somebody's trying to tell me something here lol. GBPCAD. This time I used H1 24 ATR as my stop loss, but must admit felt this too tight at time and should probably have gone above nearby prev D1 high. Target was 1.5940 which would have been 1:1 RR, although could see potential daily larger move down at this D1 range. Trade taken at prev daily high zone and at prev D1 swing high close, with 78% fib confluence. I did feel location was ok. Am waiting to see if price comes down to 1.594 for potential first time back long trade.

http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-uULTIj3x8a...D_200411_4.png

Doh - picy says SWP when it should read SFP!
  • #3,305
  • Apr 20, 2012 7:56am Apr 20, 2012 7:56am
AUDUSD SFP worked out well.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #3,306
  • Apr 20, 2012 7:59am Apr 20, 2012 7:59am
I passed on this EURJPY 1hr SFP as there was no MACD divergence but it's working out so far.

Would you hold it against the trade that the last high swing point (s) were so far back?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurjpy passed.JPG Size: 115 KB
  • #3,307
  • Apr 20, 2012 8:34am Apr 20, 2012 8:34am
Quoting nymeria
AUDUSD SFP worked out well.
It worked out well but that is not an SFP - the low in the 2nd yellow circle should be below the low in the 1st yellow circle and then close above this low.
  • #3,308
  • Apr 20, 2012 8:38am Apr 20, 2012 8:38am
Quoting mazdaq100
It worked out well but that is not an SFP - the low in the 2nd yellow circle should be below the low in the 1st yellow circle and then close above this low.
Thanks for the reply mazdaq.

Sorry that was a bad screen capture. I based the SFP line on the first of the 3 yellow circles. As I understand it, I do not move this line lower unless there has been a close below it (which has no occurred yet). Please let me know if this is wrong.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: FIXED AUDUSD.JPG Size: 136 KB
  • #3,309
  • Apr 20, 2012 8:41am Apr 20, 2012 8:41am
Quoting globaljobber
At risk of ridicule will admit to doing it again - lol - not. My second attempt at a SFP trade stopped out by 1 pip - somebody's trying to tell me something here lol. GBPCAD. This time I used H1 24 ATR as my stop loss, but must admit felt this too tight at time and should probably have gone above nearby prev D1 high. Target was 1.5940 which would have been 1:1 RR, although could see potential daily larger move down at this D1 range. Trade taken at prev daily high zone and at prev D1 swing high close, with 78% fib confluence. I did feel location...
Hi Globaljobber. Just some observations on that trade. First off its a cross! Second I don't see an SFP. Remember these are at swing points. If you were referring to the high from yesterday 15989 note that the price only droppped 30 pips off this, definately not a swing. Daily ATR is over 100. I think Tom would suggest looking for major swings and staying away from the crosses!
Hugh.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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Click to Enlarge Name: GBPCADh1.jpg Size: 100 KB
  • #3,310
  • Apr 20, 2012 9:21am Apr 20, 2012 9:21am
Quoting nymeria
Thanks for the reply mazdaq.

Sorry that was a bad screen capture. I based the SFP line on the first of the 3 yellow circles. As I understand it, I do not move this line lower unless there has been a close below it (which has no occurred yet). Please let me know if this is wrong.
OK, thanks nymeria. Not sure whether that is wrong or not, I am still learning this method myself. I probably would have liked to see the low of the SFP candle break the more recent low but that is just personal preference. Nice result nevertheless!
  • #3,311
  • Apr 20, 2012 1:41pm Apr 20, 2012 1:41pm
Quoting human2
Hi Globaljobber. Just some observations on that trade. First off its a cross! Second I don't see an SFP. Remember these are at swing points. If you were referring to the high from yesterday 15989 note that the price only droppped 30 pips off this, definately not a swing. Daily ATR is over 100. I think Tom would suggest looking for major swings and staying away from the crosses!
Hugh.

Thanks for your comments Hugh. BTW, the picture I uploaded includes a comment which should say SFP and not SWP! Doh. When you say these are at swing points - do you mean a new swing high? Or swing high which is at least equal to the previous swing high? I considered the last daily swing high and its highest close location as a decent swing point and the location was also in the top zone of the D1 range that price is currently bound in. The H1 SFP I thought I saw was created by a swing high @ 1.5990 shown by the dotted line, and then a break of this dotted line with a close below it on the bearish bar (just before the bull bar that smashed right through it), which to me indicated a SFP?? I then thus entered at the market just after that bar with a 25 ATR SL above the prev H1 SFP high. Not quite sure why this wouldn't be a SFP in itself ignoring D1 location. Please don't read my reply as disagreement with your comments, just wanting to understand it all better. Thanks again.
PS - I know it's a crazy cross and that Tom doesn't trade them - I'm crazy too :0)
  • #3,312
  • Apr 20, 2012 3:09pm Apr 20, 2012 3:09pm
Quoting globaljobber
Thanks for your comments Hugh. BTW, the picture I uploaded includes a comment which should say SFP and not SWP! Doh. When you say these are at swing points - do you mean a new swing high? Or swing high which is at least equal to the previous swing high? I considered the last daily swing high and its highest close location as a decent swing point and the location was also in the top zone of the D1 range that price is currently bound in. The H1 SFP I thought I saw was created by a swing high @ 1.5990 shown by the dotted line, and then a break of this...
Hi Globaljobber. Yes the last daily swing high on the 11th & 12th was a decent swing high. On my charts the high of this was 15981. It then dropped, came back slightly, dropped again and has been on the rise since the 18th. There so far has been no D1 SFP (could still get one tonight - but I couldn,t be arsed!). Then on the hourly, yes I see the high you are referring to (on the 19th at 1900?), but my point is that it didn't really drop off from this (drop of 30ish points) and then come back up to form a deep swing.
BTW your post caught my eye as GBPCAD has been on my watchlist for a while (ssshhh don't tell Tom) mainly cos of pattern been formed. Sleep easy your'e not the only crazy around!
Yours (wishing he was in the pub)
Hugh.
ps I am by no means an expert & hope what I have said makes sense.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #3,313
  • Apr 21, 2012 8:27am Apr 21, 2012 8:27am
Quoting the_wizard
Today is Operation Assault GBP/USD :

Operation Assault $GBPUSD : Phase #1 : Isolate the objective
http://chart.ly/gi894gw

Operation Assault $GBPUSD : Phase #2 : Reconnaissance
http://chart.ly/ljavhbd

Operation Assault $GBPUSD : Phase #3 - The Plan.

Strategy #1 Consolidation and Reorganisation
http://chart.ly/x6vxxge

Strategy #2 The brute force attack
http://chart.ly/4edmjuy

Strategy #3 The Ambush
http://chart.ly/wc22xm3

Strategy #4 The Counter Attack
http://chart.ly/4s85x2j...
Hi Tom,
In this scenario, strategy 2 was the better option. Would you enter that trade on the touch of the TL or wait for the bar that touched the TL to close?
I ask because if it was on the touch of the TL, then how do you know that the Ambush or the Counter Attack would not have been better, as they all required price to go higher? Also, if you plan on entering the brute force attack (strategy 1) on the touch of the TL, then the last two options can never be valid, as you are always entering on the touch of the TL, i.e., you will always be entering before it gets to the two options at higher levels.

Hope this makes sense.
Grant
“Make everything as simple as possible, but no simpler.” – Albert Einstein
  • #3,314
  • Apr 21, 2012 1:49pm Apr 21, 2012 1:49pm
Hi guys

Had a good week last week and starting to nail down the setups and stops with this method. Patience and discipline are slowly improving and taking less and less crap trades - so, an improving picture.

Last week's results:

5 trades/setups identified:

1 RR and 1 Sfp on the Dax - net reult +70pips;

1 Sfp on Cable - +40pips;

2 RR levels not triggered - U/J and FTSE100 - both missed by a few pips!

1 PA trade taken on E/U - out at breakeven (turned out a winner!).

So, overall a good week with 110 pips net profit (small size).

Was also tempted to take the UC Sfp and AU Sfp but not 100% convinced therefore passed on those.

Trade management and planning still need a lot of work but trick now is to get a bit of consistency so ONLY taking good setups and will try for another profitable week and slowly build confidence.

Kal
  • #3,315
  • Apr 22, 2012 8:28am Apr 22, 2012 8:28am
Quoting Kalbar
Hi guys

Had a good week last week and starting to nail down the setups and stops with this method. Patience and discipline are slowly improving and taking less and less crap trades - so, an improving picture.

Last week's results:

5 trades/setups identified:

1 RR and 1 Sfp on the Dax - net reult +70pips;

1 Sfp on Cable - +40pips;

2 RR levels not triggered - U/J and FTSE100 - both missed by a few pips!

1 PA trade taken on E/U - out at breakeven (turned out a winner!).

So, overall a good week with 110 pips...
Nice going Kalbar. If you get a chance will you post some charts of the trades.
  • #3,316
  • Apr 22, 2012 8:32am Apr 22, 2012 8:32am
http://i1084.photobucket.com/albums/...SD21042012.jpg

Some interesting technicals on H1 EURUSD.

First potential set-up was the SFP of the swing point A which happened as price printed an hourly pin at B. Looked tempting.

Not an A+ set-up for me. Higher lows price action before the break as we see in the 'spider' pattern, and the fact that point A is not an important enough swing point.

2 hrs later candle C closes above the red line (high of SFP candle) which would have technically closed the short trade. Worst case scenario -30 odd pips.

Second potential set-up was the SFP of the swing point D which occurred with the H1 candle marked E.

This is still technically in play as a short trade as no H1 candle at F has closed above the red line. Interesting to see where this opens Sunday. USDCHF is the same, surprise surprise.

I think it would have been an A+ set-up except for it forming last thing Friday, which made me pass on this one.

Silver still bouncing along in it's range, very tight between the open/close on D1 for the last 3 days.
  • #3,317
  • Apr 22, 2012 8:43am Apr 22, 2012 8:43am
Quoting nymeria
I passed on this EURJPY 1hr SFP as there was no MACD divergence but it's working out so far.

Would you hold it against the trade that the last high swing point (s) were so far back?
No the time elapsed is not a problem, but I wouldn't have marked that minor swing point down as a potential for an SFP even though that level does seem to be resisting at the moment.
  • #3,318
  • Apr 22, 2012 8:55am Apr 22, 2012 8:55am
Quoting nymeria
Thanks for the reply mazdaq.

Sorry that was a bad screen capture. I based the SFP line on the first of the 3 yellow circles. As I understand it, I do not move this line lower unless there has been a close below it (which has no occurred yet). Please let me know if this is wrong.
Always use the last swing point.

The SFP trade was between the first two yellow circles. You now take the low of the second yellow circle as your point of reference, the first circle is history.

So the third circle is not an SFP of the second.

....if this isn't sounding like an Abbott and Costello sketch....
  • #3,319
  • Apr 22, 2012 9:38am Apr 22, 2012 9:38am
Quoting Quidsey
No the time elapsed is not a problem, but I wouldn't have marked that minor swing point down as a potential for an SFP even though that level does seem to be resisting at the moment.
Thanks for clearing that up. Looks like I need to work on being more picky about my levels in the future.
  • #3,320
  • Apr 22, 2012 2:09pm Apr 22, 2012 2:09pm
I have been looking for how to join the webinar but I could not get it. Can I get the information on how to join the webinar?
Thanks
THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN GOOD AND EXCELLENT IS ATTENTION TO DETAILS.
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