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Extreme TMA System

  • #9,401
  • Apr 19, 2012 3:43am Apr 19, 2012 3:43am
Quoting interbucks
No one came back to me yet regarding this one....... just curious..... :
EURUSD :The 200 and 60 bar indicator just went through a long period, of about 120 pips, during the last couple of hours. How was that suppose to reflect/influence(?) on current price/bars, plse anyone? (sorry for my english). Or was the hike too small to have real influence.....?
Just trying to understand the logic behind the indicator Al was so kind to give us to try and predict what the market might do......
Thank you kindly. Have a great day.
What the 200th and 60th bar give you is a clue to how the matket will act in order to keep the 200 MA and the Coral at the same angle. If price behaves differently than this bars, that will be reflected in the averages as a turn in inclination.
Observation is the path to discovery.
  • #9,402
  • Apr 19, 2012 3:46am Apr 19, 2012 3:46am
Quoting Alorente
I would be glad to do it, but since I opened this thread I´m not really trading. I´m in testing mode. Testing indicators, dashboards, different time frames, new ideas... This takes a lot of screen time because as you know, TMA repaints so you can only forward test. I am getting very close to stopping all the testing and starting to trade full time again, with complete focus in trading alone. My returns have suffered greatly with all of this but I´m sure in the end it will have been worth it.
Hello Alfredo, My Friend,

I do not understand this comment at all.

Just a couple of days ago you told us that you had 28 straight wins on the H1 TF. Another time recently you claimed over 400 pips in a single day.

How can you claim these results without trading?

Alfredo, I am not trying to stir controversy, but when you teach us certain signals to watch for and then post these amazing results it leaves me wondering what I am doing wrong. Now you say you are not even trading.

I do not understand this thread direction anymore. I do not want to start my own. I truly enjoy the community you have created.

I guess I am just lost. As I said before, maybe it is just me.

William
may you find what you seek and trade what you find
  • #9,403
  • Apr 19, 2012 3:51am Apr 19, 2012 3:51am
Quoting fmuir
Hello Mike,

Attached is a zip file with updated versions of the 5x5 EAs.

These are Steve Hopwood's EAs, as modified by Nanningbob. They can be used on a chart of any time period (TF).

Regards,
-Frank
Thank you Frank.

I will check how it performs and let everyone know.

Best regards,

Mike
  • #9,404
  • Apr 19, 2012 3:55am Apr 19, 2012 3:55am
Quoting Alorente
What the 200th and 60th bar give you is a clue to how the matket will act in order to keep the 200 MA and the Coral at the same angle. If price behaves differently than this bars, that will be reflected in the averages as a turn in inclination.
Thank you kindly Al.... I will try figure out what you are saying here ... not that good at translating always........Have a great day!
  • #9,405
  • Edited 4:07am Apr 19, 2012 4:00am | Edited 4:07am
Spanish Auction #Fail As 10Y Yield Highest In 5 Months
zerohedge.com
http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/defau.../picture-5.jpg
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 04/19/2012 04:47 -0400

 

  1. Bond
  2. CDS
  3. Fail



Heading into the auction saw spreads and yields rallying to around 403bps and 5.77% respectively for 10Y and the EUR rallying solidly over 1.3150 (helping to push the USD down and implicitly S&P futures up). The 2Y started to leak back wider heading into the auction at around 3.37% (perhaps on rotation to bid for the 10Y?) and as the 430ET deadline passed, yields and spreads shifted higher in the 10Y too by 2-3bps. Spain 5Y CDS was 490bps (-5bps) and 10Y a smidge wider at 470bps. The total sold met the hoped for EUR2.5bn with both seeing a rise in bid-to-cover (which we already noted is useless as a statistic given this was the second highest bid-to-cover ever for a 10Y bond). It was the all-important yield that told the tale of the fail which came at its highest in 5 months and almost 35bps cheap to the previous auction and the 3rd highest ever.

 

  1. *SPAIN SELLS EU1.12 B 2014 BONDS
  2. *SPAIN SELLS EU1.42B 10-YEAR BONDS
  3. *SPAIN 2014 BONDS BID-TO-COVER 3.28
  4. *SPAIN 10-YEAR BONDS BID-TO-COVER 2.42 VS 2.17 AT JAN. AUCTION
  5. *SPAIN 2014 BONDS AVG YIELD 3.463%
  6. *SPAIN 10-YEAR BONDS AVG YIELD 5.743% VS 5.403% IN JAN.

  • #9,406
  • Apr 19, 2012 4:01am Apr 19, 2012 4:01am
I watch the market sentiment and open positions also, I noticed exactly that, but everything said long on GU to me, so I took it. I was part of the 23% and made a nice profit. FX is crazy sometimes.

Quoting biganc
Attachment

Oanda clients have a strong opinion that gbpusd is going down. They're not quiet as sure about eurusd, but the majority is putting there money on that one to drop as well.
Tracking the Specialists.
  • #9,407
  • Apr 19, 2012 4:20am Apr 19, 2012 4:20am
Quoting faxxion
Hello Alfredo, My Friend,

I do not understand this comment at all.

Just a couple of days ago you told us that you had 28 straight wins on the H1 TF. Another time recently you claimed over 400 pips in a single day.

How can you claim these results without trading?

Alfredo, I am not trying to stir controversy, but when you teach us certain signals to watch for and then post these amazing results it leaves me wondering what I am doing wrong. Now you say you are not even trading.

I do not understand this thread direction anymore. I do not...
What I meant by I´m not really trading... is I´m not really trading like I used to. Full time. I did have 28 in a row in H1 while testing. Some of them exiting at center line. Some at 15M opposite band. Some at 5M opposite band. I have the entry method pretty well set in stone for the system, but I am still searching for the best way to exit. Maybe there is not one single best exit for all markets. This bothers me though, because my next major step with this system is to create an EA and this will require a specific exit method. You can always manage the exit with TP and BE and Trailing stops, but all of those leave a lot of pips on the table. If any of you guys have suggestions for exit for an EA, please, help me. It is the only thing holding the EA up at this point.
Observation is the path to discovery.
  • #9,408
  • Apr 19, 2012 4:22am Apr 19, 2012 4:22am
Quoting faxxion
I know some have been holding short trades for the GU, EU and AU trades for some time.

The GU is up almost 300 pips this week alone.

How far into recovery has anyone gone?
Me.... L3

Ciao
Sabrina
  • #9,409
  • Apr 19, 2012 4:25am Apr 19, 2012 4:25am
Quoting faxxion
I know some have been holding short trades for the GU, EU and AU trades for some time.

The GU is up almost 300 pips this week alone.

How far into recovery has anyone gone?
I´m not in recovery on any of them. My average entry is 133.17 on EU, 1.5990 on GU and 1.0449 on AU. I´m still holding them and pyramiding when it releases more margin. I´ve been wacked a bit by GU though. Keeping an eye on how it reacts around the highs.
Observation is the path to discovery.
  • #9,410
  • Edited 4:37am Apr 19, 2012 4:25am | Edited 4:37am
Quoting Alorente
What I meant by I´m not really trading... is I´m not really trading like I used to. Full time. I did have 28 in a row in H1 while testing. Some of them exiting at center line. Some at 15M opposite band. Some at 5M opposite band. I have the entry method pretty well set in stone for the system, but I am still searching for the best way to exit. Maybe there is not one single best exit for all markets. This bothers me though, because my next major step with this system is to create an EA and this will require a specific exit method. You can always manage...
Hi Al, would a simple HA candle change qualify for exit on the EA? That should be all that is needed to close the trade on the EA right? Or am I being a dork?
Tracking the Specialists.
  • #9,411
  • Apr 19, 2012 4:32am Apr 19, 2012 4:32am
Quoting faxxion
Hello Alfredo, My Friend,

I do not understand this comment at all.

Just a couple of days ago you told us that you had 28 straight wins on the H1 TF. Another time recently you claimed over 400 pips in a single day.

How can you claim these results without trading?

Alfredo, I am not trying to stir controversy, but when you teach us certain signals to watch for and then post these amazing results it leaves me wondering what I am doing wrong. Now you say you are not even trading.

I do not understand this thread direction anymore. I do not...
William, in reading this again, you sound tense for some reason. Just try to do what others are doing, pick from the thread the things you feel are helpful to your system and leave it at that. What my returns are or are not, are really irrelevant to how helpful this thread is to you. This is not a competition. We each do our best with the tools and knowledge we have. That is the point behind the thread, to pool that knowledge and share our tools so we all become a little better at this difficult trade.
Observation is the path to discovery.
  • #9,412
  • Apr 19, 2012 4:39am Apr 19, 2012 4:39am
Quoting Connected
Hi Al, would a simple HA candle change qualify for exit on the EA?
I´ve tested and traded this condition a lot and I am looking for something better for two reasons:

1- Over 90% of times, price tests the swing high at least once. This means that by entering on Red HA candle, you are practically guaranteed to begin the trade with a drawdown.

2- Usually swing highs are formed by one or two long candles. The HA candle color change will leave a lot of pips on the table.

It would be ideal to exit as close to the top of the swing high (bottom of swing low) as possible. I´m moving in the direction of an M1 exit on M15 and H1 entry charts, simply because it saves a lot of pips but I am getting false signals with this also. Still working on it ...
Observation is the path to discovery.
  • #9,413
  • Apr 19, 2012 4:57am Apr 19, 2012 4:57am
Quoting Alorente
I´ve tested and traded this condition a lot and I am looking for something better for two reasons:

1- Over 90% of times, price tests the swing high at least once. This means that by entering on Red HA candle, you are practically guaranteed to begin the trade with a drawdown.

2- Usually swing highs are formed by one or two long candles. The HA candle color change will leave a lot of pips on the table.

It would be ideal to exit as close to the top of the swing high (bottom of swing low) as possible. I´m moving in the direction of an M1 exit...

After reading your 5M TF rules of entry/exit earlier, i started applying them to exit 15MTF positions as well. This is just a suggestion but have you tried exiting at the 2nd color change on fast trix on the 5M TF? Most of the tme there is test before the actual retracement or reversal, that works for me.
I wonder if that would be 2 hard to implement though :/
  • #9,414
  • Apr 19, 2012 5:03am Apr 19, 2012 5:03am
Quoting grechmar
After reading your 5M TF rules of entry/exit earlier, i started applying them to exit 15MTF positions as well. This is just a suggestion but have you tried exiting at the 2nd color change on fast trix on the 5M TF? Most of the tme there is test before the actual retracement or reversal, that works for me.
I wonder if that would be 2 hard to implement though :/
I agree with you. That is a better way to exit manually, but how do you implement a first A and then B condition on an EA? Maybe it is possible...

One way or another, it does look like the exit condition will come from a smaller time frame than the current chart. Hopefully on a test of the swing high if it can be accomplished.
Observation is the path to discovery.
  • #9,415
  • Edited 5:44am Apr 19, 2012 5:31am | Edited 5:44am
Quoting Alorente
What I meant by I´m not really trading... is I´m not really trading like I used to. Full time. I did have 28 in a row in H1 while testing. Some of them exiting at center line. Some at 15M opposite band. Some at 5M opposite band. I have the entry method pretty well set in stone for the system, but I am still searching for the best way to exit. Maybe there is not one single best exit for all markets. This bothers me though, because my next major step with this system is to create an EA and this will require a specific exit method. You can always manage...
Al,
I guess that there is no better exist for EA. I would suggest using EA to open trades and manually exit. I am also testing an EA for 5M TF basket. When Price reach upper band and stalled EA fires Sell and close buy orders , and do opposite when Price reach lower band.
Follow me to the Promised Land
  • #9,416
  • Apr 19, 2012 5:48am Apr 19, 2012 5:48am
Quoting xlitang
Al,
I guess that there is no better exist for EA. I would suggest using EA to open trades and manually exit.
The idea is to build the best EA possible that can trade 24/5 and with different time frames.

I´d like to have EAs running for M5, M15, H1 and maybe H4 also, with a 6 to 8 pair diversified portfolio. On longer time frames we will run a percentage trailing stop set at 50% of profit, triggered to start trailing at center line of each TMA channel. This will catch half of the profits for instances where you retrace from the center line to the original band. All channels will be set at 2.0 ATR Multiplier. Exit may be in stages: 1/3 at 2.0, 1/3 at 2.25 and 1/3 at 2.5 Multipliers. The EA´s will reverse if Ranging, entering in stages also (1/3 at same multipliers). So the 2.0 closes a long and opens a short. The 2.25 closes the second long and opens the second short, and the 2.5 closes the third long and opens the final short. If price does not make it to 2.5, the trade will be partly hedged.

From my testing on these time frames, I believe all of them could be profitable. How profitable? that is the big question and we won´t know until we run the EAs for a few months.
Observation is the path to discovery.
  • #9,417
  • Apr 19, 2012 5:51am Apr 19, 2012 5:51am
Quoting faxxion
I know some have been holding short trades for the GU, EU and AU trades for some time.

The GU is up almost 300 pips this week alone.
That is totally expected. Look at the MN. Do you see up HA candles marching up? If the MN is moving up, you aren't going to turn that monster on a dime. The lower charts need to head towards its top band to be able to swing down to pull it down. And on the way there, isn't every smaller chart going to be battling the bigger charts on top of it to do so? So there will be swings large and small taking place as each larger chart comes under attack, so to speak.

When a big chart like the W1 or MN is on the move, you can open up your favorite counter-trend system and get some nice pips, because, as I said, there will be some big swings in both directions as the bigger charts come into play.

DrDave
To free Gazans of Hamas, use whatever it takes.
  • #9,418
  • Apr 19, 2012 6:01am Apr 19, 2012 6:01am
Quoting Alorente
....... You can always manage the exit with TP and BE and Trailing stops, but all of those leave a lot of pips on the table. If any of you guys have suggestions for exit for an EA, please, help me. It is the only thing holding the EA up at this point.
Hi Al, I'm not a big expert yet in managing Trades efficiently, but in my opinion the most accurate event to exit a trade, remains the TDI indicator . TDI is a very powerful indicator which is mainly discussed in TMS (Trading Made Simple thread) and I guess a lot of your followers know it. Eventhough in its original thread there was no specific rule to exit trades, the TDI could show when green & red lines cross or when there is a hook or bent of green line. Another question remains for the programmers is how to program these signals when these visual figures happen and how to integrate them in your EA project.
  • #9,419
  • Apr 19, 2012 6:04am Apr 19, 2012 6:04am
Quoting effluvium
Hi Al, I'm not a big expert yet in managing Trades efficiently, but in my opinion the most accurate event to exit a trade, remains the TDI indicator . TDI is a very powerful indicator which is mainly discussed in TMS (Trading Made Simple thread) and I guess a lot of your followers know it. Eventhough in its original thread there was no specific rule to exit trades, the TDI could show when green & red lines cross or when there is a hook or bent of green line. Another question remains for the programmers is how to program these signals when these...
I agree that TDI can be helpful.
Observation is the path to discovery.
  • #9,420
  • Apr 19, 2012 6:05am Apr 19, 2012 6:05am
Quoting Alorente
I agree with you. That is a better way to exit manually, but how do you implement a first A and then B condition on an EA? Maybe it is possible...

One way or another, it does look like the exit condition will come from a smaller time frame than the current chart. Hopefully on a test of the swing high if it can be accomplished.
I do not know if this is possible but it came into my mind, implement a mathematical formula that calculate a change in value in the fast trix, so if trix has decreased in number by a certain percentage(a percentage change which accounts for AB) that would mean its time to exit. Maybe instead of percentage use gradient?

Alternatively, another would be to exit at a divergence in 5mTF fast trix?

Upon further though did you consider this: stop could be when the 5M TF TMA slope returns to ranging. I really think that this could work.
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