Eurusd seems interesting, but be careful...@R3ta, wow! some piece of post 
I'll read it later, when I'll find some time.
I'll read it later, when I'll find some time.
james16 Chart Thread
- #110,463
- Apr 18, 2012 2:00pm Apr 18, 2012 2:00pm
- | Joined Nov 2011 | Status: Trader | 1,078 Posts
Thoughts are things
- #110,466
- Apr 18, 2012 3:26pm Apr 18, 2012 3:26pm
That BEOB may have the momentum it needs to smash through the 5.7419 HCR confluenced level. Would have liked a Daily Close below this level .
That HCR at the 5.8227 was tight . .
Good to see you, D ..
Jim
- #110,467
- Apr 18, 2012 3:28pm Apr 18, 2012 3:28pm
You are a new guy here but seems to have some experience ... How long have you been trading , If you don't mind me askng ?
i lurk a lot here, but as you can see i dont post much.
- #110,469
- Edited 7:12pm Apr 18, 2012 6:23pm | Edited 7:12pm
- Joined Sep 2005 | Status: J16 Senior Member | 13,635 Posts
Hey patapour . . .Welcome to the thread. . .Yes there is a lot to learn here . .just take your time and try to learn one concept at a time, meanin just focus on PPZ level and Support and Resistance . .then Price Action formations . .then . .etc.
Big Round Numbrs and Round Numbers are important numbers in the market and play a part or piece of a overall setups story. BRNs on the EurJpy are 105.00. 110.00, 100.00, 115.00. RNs would be 106.00, 108.00, 111.00., etc.
. .I will continue pata . .I have to leave right now . .
Jim
Thanks a lot Jim for your time and patience
understood, back to the lecture
I guess I'll start practice on my 3-y daughter's puzzles...
Just to continue . .You were asking about the Price movement of the EurJpy at the 106.00 RN.
The movement of Price tends to center around the common market dynamic of Support and Resistance levels . As you study this thread, James16 talks about the PPZ level (Price Pivot Zone) it is an area of the market where Support and Restance areas meet ..together. PPZ levels are great areas to look for in the market. Along with just Support levels and Resistance levels on their own.
I don't know how much of this study you have done but Price Action formations like "Pin Bars" and "Outside Bars" (i.e BEarish Outside Bars, BUllish Outside Bars) are the product of or the result of these Support and Resistance levels.
The EurJpy Pin Bar was just the result of a Support level created by the Swing Low at the 105.50-43 and also the Swing point of the 105.63 that I have marked in green. This Support level(s) was formed first and then the bullish PB was formed.
So when you study this thread . .sure, go ahead and study the PA formation . .they are important. But study first why these formations are created in the first place. Study Support and Resistance levels . .PPZ levels ..Its the main focus of what James16 teaches . .
Jim
Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
- #110,470
- Edited 7:38pm Apr 18, 2012 6:37pm | Edited 7:38pm
- Joined Sep 2005 | Status: J16 Senior Member | 13,635 Posts
Hey Jim. Thanks for feedback. Momentum wasn't enough to cut through that consolidation. The BEOB is still valid, but not worth waiting. I cut this one manually for a little less than half bar loss. On to the next one....
Looks like the battle of the LCS and HCR levels.
This corner we have a strong HCR level confluenced with a couple emas . .and this corner we have a LCS level with a strong BEOB closing below it.
Price is respecting both levels by the Daily Closes at both levels . .
I still like the BEOB to win . .but we'll have to see where price closes to be sure. . . a few more closes within these leves could lead to some compression . .don't you think, D . .
Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
- #110,471
- Edited 7:17pm Apr 18, 2012 6:52pm | Edited 7:17pm
R3ta, nice of you sharing your TM ideas.
It motivated me, to start evaluating what I am doing, so I'll run a manual backtest this weekend with some of your ideas.
yeah, i think we need some backtesting over major pairs for a period of at least 2 years (daily charts) to prove the validity of my ideas. i'm gonna do it as soon as possible. i just want to add some new thouths about what i wrote before. in particular, the backtest should identify which option is better between:
a) open the trade at the break -OR- at the close of the bar (assuming that we still consider FULL bar lenght for calculating R/R take profits AND breakeven). <----- at a first impression, this aggressive entry style can save your a*s more than i expected, "helping" the profits to reach 1 R/R profit level in most cases.
b) take profit at 1 R/R -OR- take profit at 1 R/R locking profit at 0.5 or 0.7 R/R when we are near 1 R/R (for example 0.9 R/R) to avoid the chance of seeing all our profits go away because we didnt hit our TP @ 1 R/R for just few pips. <----- moving stop this way will grant you much more profits over the long run i think
c) adopt the same trade management strategy over all conditions -OR- distinguish the trades between high expectancy trades (pin bars or boub on parabolic trend high/lows or off strong trendline) AND low expentancy trades like counter trend bounce which usually turn around after hitting the previous support or resistance. if we distinguish between these those two groups of trades we aim to take full profit at 1 R/R for low expentancy trades, and we take 2/3 of profit @ 1 R/R for high expenctancy trades trailing the remaining 1/3 for the big runs. <----- maybe if you have enought experience you can benefit from this approach. not so hard to make good decisions here: you have to choose between little run trades and long run trades (of course the trader must predict what would probably be the length of the next move). when you're about to manage a trade which have a high momentum or a strong confluence and IS ACCORDING WITH THE CURRENT TREND you can be pretty sure you'll be rewarded to trail your last 1/3 of your position, instead, when you are about to open a trade on a beob that indicates a counter trend bounce, or you are in a sideways market where price is making some ups and downs in a "box" then take your full position at the very next trouble area which give you 1 R/R. if you are proven wrong by the market, at the worst you get a worst return with your last 1/3 but at least you dont lose money.
these are the changes i think could improve the whole approach. i'm going to backtest these ideas on my charts in the next few days, knowning that second options on point a b and c would probably be the best solutions. the second option on point c is the one that might drive me crazy because is not so easy to backtest asking yourself "would i had rated this entry as a low or a high expectancy trade?" (...)
in addiction, im not so sure this further complexity would bring the whole approach to a better level. maybe it would only create too much confusions.
by the way im happy to see, with a first rudimental backtesting and looking at Josh results, that taking all profits @ 1 R/R and appying second options for points a and b explained above you can get a very high hit rate EVEN if you take almost blindly every price action bars that you see on your charts.
now i need some sleep, but if some of you are interested im going to put down all the results on a exel file or something like that when possible. or maybe i can put some chart example underlying trades "taken" and the relative returns so you can easily check the backtesting results.
lots of work to do
- #110,472
- Apr 18, 2012 7:01pm Apr 18, 2012 7:01pm
- Joined Sep 2005 | Status: J16 Senior Member | 13,635 Posts
Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
- #110,473
- Edited 7:35pm Apr 18, 2012 7:14pm | Edited 7:35pm
- Joined Sep 2005 | Status: J16 Senior Member | 13,635 Posts
Thanks a lot Jim for your time and patience
understood, back to the lecture
I guess I'll start practice on my 3-y daughter's puzzles...
Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
- #110,474
- Apr 18, 2012 7:28pm Apr 18, 2012 7:28pm
- Joined Sep 2005 | Status: J16 Senior Member | 13,635 Posts
The level is currently holding and gave a nice 4H BEOB this morning. My short order is nicked in. I liked strong close, BEOB engulfed multiple bars, solid test of daily HCR, and divergence.
(Also a Daily SFP)
Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
- #110,478
- Apr 19, 2012 1:20am Apr 19, 2012 1:20am
- Joined Oct 2010 | Status: full time beer drinker | 1,345 Posts
EUR/CAD daily pinbar , BRN 1.3000 and TL, i set an buystop above the pin.
Any thoughts?
Any thoughts?
- #110,479
- Apr 19, 2012 1:29am Apr 19, 2012 1:29am
- Joined Oct 2010 | Status: full time beer drinker | 1,345 Posts
The level is currently holding and gave a nice 4H BEOB this morning. My short order is nicked in. I liked strong close, BEOB engulfed multiple bars, solid test of daily HCR, and divergence.
- #110,480
- Apr 19, 2012 1:34am Apr 19, 2012 1:34am
- | Joined Nov 2011 | Status: Trader | 1,078 Posts
EUR/CAD daily pinbar , BRN 1.3000 and TL, i set an buystop above the pin.
Any thoughts?
Theres also slight divergence.
Thoughts are things